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What if Boise State was in a Different Conference? 6th Edition: PAC12

We are getting closer folks! Only 25 days until Boise State football kicks off against Troy in Alabama. Last edition we finally got into the Power 5 conferences, looking at the BIGXII. Over these next few weeks we will continue to look at how Boise State football would fare as a member of each FBS conference. This is the 6th installment of my series in which we will take a look at how well BSU would fare in the PAC12 conference.

Image result for boise state logoImage result for pac12 logo

We started with the lower tier conferences and have been working our way up each week in the following order: Sunbelt, Conference USA, MAC, AAC, BIGXII, Pac12, ACC, B1G, and SEC.

This Week: The PAC12.

last edition we finally got into the Power 5 conferences and it didn't disappoint. We saw BSU would be very competitive in the BIGXII. Now we get to see how we would fare in the PAC12, the conference that would make the most sense for BSU to join if we were ever able to jump up to the P5. BSU has also been historically very good against the PAC12.

The PAC12 has never really been the class of the P5/BCS, but they feild teams that are just as good as anyone else in the country. Teams like Washington (thanks to coach Pete), Stanford, USC, WSU, Arizona, Utah, Oregon, and UCLA battle each season for the top spot in the conference. On top of those teams they also have names like Cal, ASU, Colorado, and Oregon St.

FUN FACT: Boise State has been very good against the PAC12 over the last 12 years. Since 2006 The Broncos are 13-4. When you look at the all-time record, it isn't as pretty as the last decade or so coming in at 17-16 (still a winning record though). Below is the breakdown of our all time record versus the Pac12 members.

Arizona: 1-0
Arizona State : 1-1
Oregon: 3-0
Oregon State: 4-5
UCLA: 0-1
Utah: 5-2
Washington: 2-2
Washington State: 1-5

Total: 17-16

We’ll use the F+ ratings available at FootballOutsiders.com. The two components of F+ (S&P+ and FEI) both adjust for opponents and strength of schedule, so this should theoretically give us a pretty good idea of how well the Broncos would fare outside of the MWC.

Let's take a look!

BSU in The PAC12

School

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

Boise State

20

19

37

21

45

Arizona

47

101

77

28

25

Arizona St

61

87

50

27

13

Cal

82

64

29

65

103

Colorado

88

20

94

83

95

Oregon

50

78

23

3

5

Oregon St

122

69

107

74

42

Stanford

18

25

6

18

3

Washington

10

5

13

58

18

WSU

45

32

54

77

53

UCLA

73

58

28

12

15

USC

19

11

17

16

11

Utah

36

39

22

29

31

Ok, so now let’s break down the table a little bit. (Note: F+ rankings in parentheses.) As you can see, The PAC12 is much better than the G5 conferences and I would say slightly better then the BIG12, though not by much. Boise State would have a tough road to the conference championship, But as we all know, BSU has beaten some of the best teams from the PAC12 (including a 3-0 record against Oregon).

The PAC12 has averaged 4.6 teams ranked in the top 25 and 7.4 teams ranked in the top 50 for the past 5 years. If we look at the top 75, that number of teams jumps to almost 9.4 on average. The PAC12 also averages only 0.8 teams per year who is ranked below the 100 mark.

So then, by the numbers in 2017 BSU (20) would have been the #4 team in the The PAC12. With the biggest challenges coming from Washington (10), Stanford (18), and USC (19). There are still other teams that could have cause issues though. There is still Utah (36), WSU (45) [who we lost to], Arizona (47), and Oregon (50) [who we beat]. BSU would definitely have some big hurdles to win the conference but they would still be very competitive.

Boise State looks to have a rougher time against the PAC12 than they did aganst the BIG12. If we go solely by the rankings the Broncos would have come in #4, #3, #8, #5, #10 in the conference respectively. We also know that rankings are definitely not everything in college football meaning we could beat higher ranked teams or possibly lose to lower ranked teams. For example in 2015 we beat a much higher ranked Washington team. However, last season we lost to a much lower ranked WSU team.

I believe Boise would be a contender for the top of the conference on a regular basis. It would definitely be a tougher schedule than the previous G5 conferences and the BIG12 though.

Head to head results over the past five years

2017 - BSU 44 vs. WSU 47 (3OT)

2017 - BSU 38 vs. Oregon 28

2016 - BSU 31 vs. WSU 28

2016 - BSU 38 vs. Oregon St 24

2015- BSU 16 vs. Washington 13

2014 - BSU 38 vs. Arizona 30

2013 - BSU 6 vs. Washington 38

2013 - BSU 23 vs Oregon St 38

FUN FACT #2: Since 2013 BSU has played 8 games against the PAC12. 5 out of 8 of those games, one of the teams scored 38 points.

Projected Records and conference standing:

2017 - 10-3 (6-2) - #3

2016 - 11-2 (7-1) - #2

2015 - 10-3 (6-2) - #3

2014 - 11-2 (7-1) - #2

2013 - 6-6 (3-5) - #6

*For the above records I kept the broncos out of conference record the same and adjusted their in conference record for playing the PAC12 slate instead of the MWC.

The Broncos wouldn't have a whole lot of room for error if they want to compete for the conference championship every year. They would regularly have 4 to 5 solid teams they would have to get through each year (A down season here would likely mean no hopes for a conference title and even no bowl game!).

I would expect a floor of 6 wins, and really no ceiling.

To sum it all up: The PAC12 is far superior to the G5 conferences we've looked at so far and just slightly better than the BIG12. Boise would still be competitive but would have to be on their A game to compete with Washington, Stanford, Oregon, and USC for the conference title. With that said, I believe the increased budget and exposure would allow us to raise the level of competition similar to how Utah did when they joined the PAC12. We also already compete with the PAC12 on a regular basis so many of the teams are fairly familiar which would help during the transition.

1st Edition: Sun Belt - https://www.obnug.com/2018/6/20/17485318/what-if-boise-state-was-in-a-different-conference-week-1-the-sunbelt

2nd Edition: C-USA - https://www.obnug.com/2018/7/16/17577816/what-if-boise-state-was-in-a-different-conference-2nd-edition

3rd Edition: The MAC - https://www.obnug.com/2018/7/18/17583032/what-if-boise-state-was-in-a-different-conference-3rd-edition-the-mac

4th Edition : The AAC - https://www.obnug.com/2018/7/20/17595568/what-id-f-boise-state-was-in-a-different-conference-4th-edition-the

5th Edition: The BIG12 - https://www.obnug.com/2018/7/31/17635488/what-if-boise-state-was-in-a-different-conference-5th-edition-bigxii

This content was not created by OBNUG and therefore may not meet our standards. On the contrary, it probably exceeds them.

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