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Looking back on 2011's bold, failed Boise State football predictions

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Predicting what is going to happen in any upcoming college football season is a fool's exercise, and judging by how poorly I predicted things this year, I am the Billy Blanks of aerobic fools. In a series of preseason preview articles on OBNUG, I attempted to boldly predict what would go down with the Broncos in 2011. I failed. Boldly.

After the jump, I take a look back at my swings and misses and occasional bunt singles. Feel free to share your own prediction shortcomings or successes in the comments.

Fleeting moments of genius

Kellen Moore breaks the all-time record for CFB wins in the team's eighth game at UNLV.

Kirby Moore catches at least one touchdown pass from his brother Kellen

Charles Leno deserves to be recognized on an all-Mountain West team, but gets snubbed

Mike Atkinson finishes a full season as an eligible member of the football team

Byron Hout leads the team in tackles

Conclusion: Even a broken clock is right twice a day - except for digital clocks, which just say 0000 or BOOBS when they're broken.

Close but no cigars

Kellen Moore has a career year, stats-wise, despite tons of factors (loss of WRS, shift in offensive style, etc.) that should make this impossible. Moore passes for 3,900 yards, 42 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. (Moore throws for 3,800 yards, 43 touchdowns, and nine INTs. His QB rating is worse than his 2010 season, but he sets a career high in touchdown passes.)

Joe Southwick ends the season as the clear-cut No. 2 and favorite to replace Moore next year. (Reality: There is no clear-cut favorite. They're all clear-cut favorites.)

The Boise State passing offense is just as prolific as last year except with more players involved. (Boise State finished No. 11 in passing offense to last year's No. 6.)

Boise State goes through the whole season with their top four linebackers healthy. (Tommy Smith was thisclose.)

Jerrell Gavins leads all Bronco cornerbacks in INTs ... and touchdowns allowed. (I got the first half right.)

Bryan Douglas begins his career as the next great Boise State corner. (Er, I meant Lee Hightower?)

Conclusion: Close may only count in horseshoes and hand grenades, but after you see the next batch of predictions gone awry, these will look downright prescient.


Doug Martin breaks Ian Johnson's single-season record for rushing yards by gaining 1,800 yards. (Martin rushed for 1,299 yards.)

Drew Wright scores more touchdowns than D.J. Harper and Jay Ajayi combined

Doug Martin scores 10 receiving TDs on screen passes. (He had two.)

Drew Wright and Jay Ajayi have 100-yard games

D.J. Harper has a 200-yard game

Raphiel Lambert runs over a linebacker in garbage time, just like Jarvis Hodge used to. (Lambert had three carries for two yards on the season.)

Geraldo Boldewijn and Tyler Shoemaker both crack 1,000 receiving yards. (No one had a 1,000-yard receiving season.)

Six different receivers have 100-yard games. (Two players had a 100-yard receiving game.)

Boise State places three linemen on the all-Mountain West teams at the end of the year. (The Broncos get one: Nate Potter.)

The Broncos rush for a higher yards-per-carry average than they have in three years. (The Broncos rush for their lowest ypc since 2008.)

Brenel Myers is in the starting lineup by year end

Boise State has three D-linemen finish with 10 sacks or more: McClellin, Winn, and team-high Crawford. (McClellin had a team-high. Winn had three.)

Billy Winn is a first-team All-America

Chase Baker earns third-team All-Mountain West honors. (There is no third-team all-MWC.)

We will all know Greg Grimes' name by the end of the year

George Iloka has an All-American year and wins Mountain West defensive player of the year honors

Jamar Taylor is a first-team All-MWC corner

Jonathan Brown wins at least one Hammer

Conclusion: I am wrong a lot.

Good heavens what is wrong with me?!

LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson wins the Heisman Trophy, Kellen Moore finishes No. 2, Andrew Luck finishes No. 3

Conclusion: Phil Steele inhabited my body for a brief moment.

To be determined ...

Kellen Moore gets drafted in the third round by the Oakland Raiders

Conclusion: I am at 80 percent confident this has a 50 percent chance of happening.

Your turn

What predictions did you make last season that came true or didn't? Anything you want to take credit for foreseeing? Any Heisman picks you want to pretend never happened? Leave your stories in the comments.