Got an opinion to share about the upcoming Bronco football season? Then Odds Makers is for you.
Join me as I run down a list of potential scenarios and the likelihood I see of each coming true, and jump in with your perspective in the comments. Is Kellen Moore greater than Case Keenum? Will BSU get a first-team All-WAC linebacker? Is anyone going to show up at the Toledo game? Let's discuss.
Odds Makers is a segment I stole from Pardon the Interruption.
Let me know how wrong I am in the comments.
Odds Maker No. 1: Chances that Case Keenum is Graham Watson's top non-BCS player
Watson's quixotic attempt at ranking the Top 25 players among all non-BCS teams comes to a merciful end today when she announces her No. 2 player, thereby announcing her No. 1 player in the process, sort of like how Miss America works. The decision is obviously between Keenum and Kellen Moore. So you can stop holding your breath, Deonte Jackson.
Brian Murphy blogged about this topic yesterday, and he believes Watson will go with Keenum as her No. 1 (he also gave a shout out to OBNUG, which reminds me, I owe him money). Let's put aside what the right answer is for a minute and try to crawl inside Watson's brain. It doesn't matter whether Moore or Keenum is the better player. It matters only how Graham Watson thinks of them.
My gut instinct: Watson loves Moore to a greater degree than she loves Keenum. Her Boise State hate has waned in the past year, and she even did the unthinkable in ranking quasi-boyfriend Colin Kaepernick behind an academically-ineligible player from Kaep's own backfield. I believe in you, Graham Watson. Whether that's a good thing remains to be seen.
Chances: 30 percent
Odds Maker No. 2: Chances that Boise State gets its first All-WAC first team linebacker since 2006.
Last year's first team All-WAC linebacker group looked like this:
Ben Jacobs, Fresno State
Blaze Soares, Hawaii (graduated)
- Adrien Cole, Louisiana Tech
- Bobby Wagner, Utah State
Jacobs is back for his senior season, and Cole and Wagner are just going into their junior years. Theoretically, if those players stay in form, they should repeat as first-teamers. Realistically, all they need to do is not break a leg and the WAC coaches will probably keep them on the team because who has time to fill out those award ballots besides interns. Copy and paste and check for attrition, that's how it's done.
Which player has the best potential for first team honors on Boise State? Some might say Aaron Tevis because he is Colt Brooks 2.0. Others might go with Derrell Acrey because they are totally drinking the D.A. Kool-Aid that this will be his year. I'm going to think outside the box and go with Winston Venable who made last year's second team as a linebacker.
Still, Tevis, Acrey, and Venable will have to contend with a whole lot of other WAC players - like Idaho's JoJo Dickson and Nevada's James-Michael Johnson - for what could end up being one spot. And when you consider that BSU will likely have first team defense candidates at every single other position, linebacker might have to wait another year.
Chances: 10 percent
Odds Maker No. 3: Chances that Boise State sells out all of its home games this season
Well, UC Davis isn't on the schedule this year, so that helps. Also, San Jose State and New Mexico State are on the road, so yay for not having to see those teams in person.
However, Boise State was unable last year to sell out for teams that mattered, so I have a very hard time believing that this year things will change. Once the MWC move happens, you can start predicting sellouts left and right. Until then, I'm saying that home games against Toledo, Louisiana Tech, and Utah State will have empty seats.
Chances: 0 percent
Odds Maker No. 4: Chances that the Boise State - Idaho rivalry lives on
The funny thing is that once it was announced that the Bronco-Vandal game wouldn't happen in 2011 and possibly beyond, the people most up in arms about it were Vandals. And they're the ones on the wrong end of a double-digit losing streak.
If Vandal administrators and fans wanted to be done with this rivalry, then that would be another story. But the dogs in this race want to keep racing, and I see no way where Boise State doesn't make it work. It could be that the Vandals are desperate enough to schedule an away game in Boise every other year. It could be that legislators and fan pressure force the rivalry to continue its home-and-away series.
But rest assured, it will continue in some form. Free wins? Can't beat that.
Chances: 100 percent
Odds Maker No. 5: Chances that Kellen Moore is a three-time conference player of the year by the time he ends his career
So far, Moore is a one-time WAC player of the year, and if he has a season anywhere near Moore standards, he will likely repeat. Can he pull the trifecta in 2011?
He'll have to do so in the Mountain West, which will have a little stiffer competition. Still, if he is the non-BCS Heisman fave in his junior year, how much more will he be esteemed for his senior season? He will likely face competition from some young BYU quarterback and some athletic TCU offensive star. But you have to like the chances of a QB that people are already calling college football's best.
Chances: 80 percent
Odds Maker No. 6: Chances that Bryan Harsin scores a head coaching gig after this season
Harsin is undoubtedly one of the best young coordinators in the game, and the college football coaching machine has an unhealthy infatuation with young coordinators. Will this be the year he leaves?
There will undoubtedly be plenty of suitors this offseason (including some possible WAC teams like Hawaii). Will any of them be good enough for Harsin? If the Broncos have another stellar season, I am almost 100 percent confident that Harsin will move on to greener pastures. But I don't see that being a head coaching spot just yet. Like Wilcox, I believe Harsin would be better off advancing to a BCS team as their OC and then transitioning to head coach from there.
Unless he wants to be coaching the Colorado States of the world in 2011, Harsin's head coaching opportunity will likely wait. And who wants to coach the Colorado States of the world? (I mean, besides Brent Guy.)
Chances: 20 percent
Odds Maker No. 7: Chances that a Boise State game comes down to a field goal this season and that I develop an insta-ulcer thinking about Kyle Brotzman kicking it
Boise State will play a lot of blowouts, but it seems that there are always a couple of games that are too close for comfort. The VT game will undoubtedly be close, and I venture to guess that one of the WAC games will be, too. The only saving grace might be that the game-deciding kick comes off the foot of the other team's kicker. Still, I had better call ahead to St. Luke's just to be safe.
Chances: 70 percent
Let's hear your odds on the above scenarios happening. Think Kellen Moore is deserving of Watson's top honor? Guarded about the chances of Bronco Stadium sellouts this fall? Think I'm a moron for picking the percentages I did? Share your thoughts in the comments.