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Boise State Bowl Possibilities: Prepare yourselves

By Nick Kroes

Boise State sits at #4 again this week in the latest BCS standings after TCU's convincing win over Utah. The win pretty much cements TCU over Boise State as they sit above Boise State in the human polls as well as the computers.

After the jump, we'll go through all the possibilities of where Boise State could end up playing its bowl game and they're not pretty. 

If the season ended today...

 

National Championship Game

Oregonlogosmall_medium  Auburnlogosmall_medium  Oregon vs. Auburn

 

Rose Bowl

 Wisconsinlogosmall_medium Tculogosmall_medium  Wisconsin vs. TCU

As Kevan noted last week, the Rose Bowl is contractually obligated to take the top non AQ team if it loses either the Big 10 champion or the Pac 10 champion to the national championship game. At this point, Oregon is in so the Rose Bowl would be saddled with TCU.

The Big 10 standings are pretty crazy right now, but we're projecting Wisconsin to come out ahead based on it's head to head win over Ohio State. You can double check out math here if you'd like.

Possibilities for an undefeated Boise State

For now, we're working under the assumption that Boise State finishes the year undefeated. I feel much better about that assumption after watching the defense dominate Hawaii this past weekend. Nevada is a good team, but I know I was more worried about Hawaii's passing attack giving our defense fits then Nevada's run game. 

Let's run down the BCS bowl games and the possibilities of Boise State playing in each.

National Championship Game

As of this week, Boise State sits at #4 in the BCS rankings and the gap behind #3 TCU has widened. For Boise State to keep it's National Championship dreams alive, I believe they are 2 upsets away. Between TCU, Oregon and Auburn, 2 of those teams will have to lose a game.

Oregon remaining schedule:

  • Nov. 13th @ California
  • Nov. 26th vs #18 Arizona
  • Dec. 4th @ Oregon State
Auburn remaining schedule:
  • Nov. 13th vs Georgia
  • Nov. 26th @ #12 Alabama
  • Dec. 4th - SEC Championship Game
TCU remaining schedule:
  • Nov. 13th vs San Diego State
  • Nov. 27th @ New Mexico
As you can see, Oregon and Auburn are the most likely to drop a game. However, expect to hear plenty of talk about how a 1 loss Oregon or Auburn team deserves to play in the NC game over TCU or Boise State.

Rose Bowl

As stated above, the Rose Bow is forced to pick top rated eligible non AQ team if it loses either the Big 10 or Pac 10 champion to the National Championship game. However, it should be noted that the BCS only requires automatic entry for the 1 non AQ team.

This would mean that if TCU stayed ahead of Boise State and somehow made it to the National Championship game, they would satisfy this requirement and none of the remaining BCS bowls would be required to pick Boise State, including the Rose Bowl. So, the only way Boise State would play in the Rose Bowl this year would be for them to jump TCU which is going to be a tall order after the gap that opened up between the two teams in the last BCS standings.

At this point, I believe it would be more likely to see Boise State in the National Championship game facing TCU then in the Rose Bowl.

Sugar Bowl

The Sugar Bowl seems like the most likely BCS destination for Boise State at this point. LSU will most likely be the SEC participant unless Auburn drops a game. However, many pundits are projecting that the Sugar Bowl will be looking for a big-name program after being forced to take Hawaii, Utah and Cincinnati in recent years.  Other teams who could be available for the Sugar Bowl to choose could include Stanford, Ohio State, Oklahoma State or Michigan State.

Orange Bowl

The Orange Bowl will have the ACC champion which at this point looks like it's going to be Virginia Tech. The BCS has traditionally avoided rematches so look for the Orange Bowl to go a different direction than Boise State and whoever wins the dreaded Big East.

Fiesta Bowl

The Fiesta Bowl has had great success with Boise State in the past. Boise State fans have traveled well and ratings have been better than most other BCS bowls. However, the Big XII champion will take up one of the spots and the Big East winner will likely fall all the way to the Fiesta Bowl who gets the last pick this year. 

Even if the Fiesta Bowl wanted to do the right thing and invite Boise State, it couldn't because they'd be full.

Non BCS Bowl Possbilities

At this point, it looks to be as likely for an undefeated Boise State to end up in the National Championship game as the Humanitarian Bowl. Somewhere a Humanitarian Bowl official making six figures just jumped for joy. 

Here are the WAC bowl tie ins minus the Hawaii Bowl that Hawaii has already filled:

  • Humanitarian Bowl
  • New Mexico Bowl
  • Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Appetizing, is it not?

Correction: Apparently according to Karl Benson, the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl gets first pick over the Humanitarian Bowl. (HT: Brian Murphy)

Humanitarian Bowl

The H-Bowl gets the number 1 or 2 team from the WAC. With Idaho teetering on the edge of bowl eligibility, the H-Bowl could be especially difficult and enforce its tie in with Boise State if they're available.

The H-Bowl also has a tie in with the #3 team from the MAC. I know I can't wait for the arguably the best Boise State team ever to face off against Ohio!

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl pits the WAC against the Pac 10's #6 team. With USC ineligible this year, the Pac 10 will be struggling to have 6 teams be bowl eligible this year. 

This seems to be where many analysts are projecting Boise State should they be left out of the BCS this year. 

New Mexico Bowl

The New Mexico Bowl consists of a WAC team against the MWC's number 4 or 5 team. This really shouldn't be a possibility for Boise State under any circumstances.

To wrap it up

We are 10 weeks into the college football season and we still have no idea of where Boise State could end up. They opened the season ranked #3 in the AP and now sit at number #4 due to no fault of their own.This is arguably the best Boise State team ever and they could just as easily be in the national championship game as they could be facing Ohio in the Humanitarian Bowl. 

This season has seen some crazy upsets already this year. It's entirely possible that we could see Oregon and Auburn both lose games down the stretch. 

Do you have faith that the Sugar Bowl would select Boise State? Should we be rooting for Florida State to upset Virginia Tech so that the Orange Bowl could look Boise State's way? Are there additional bowls out there that will have open slots that could work a favorable match up for Boise State?