Kellen Moore is leading the nation in pass efficiency because, seriously, how much more efficient can you get than to have a 48-point lead at halftime and not even need to play the other two quarters.
That said, sitting for half of each game does no favors to your stat line, something that Moore and Doug Martin and Austin Pettis and Titus Young know full well. So what if Boise State's starting skill players had four quarters per game to work their magic? What would their stats look like then?
I'm glad you asked. Continue reading for the results.
The methodology
I used a couple different methods to figure these statistics.
- Average attempts. What would Moore's numbers look like if he had as many chances as the top passers in the country? This one takes average attempts for a selection of players which can then be applied to a BSU player's stats. For instance, if Bryant Moniz has 283 pass attempts and Kellen Moore has 151, you'd make Moore's attempts match Moniz's and apply math to round out the statistics.
- Per quarter statistics. For instance, if Kellen Moore throws for 75 yards per quarter, figure out how many total quarters the Broncos have played and multiply.
I'll point out which methods I used for each.
Now, on with the results!
Statistical leaders: Quarterbacks
Turns out that Kellen Moore has played about 60 percent of the football that all other college football quarterbacks have played. Scary, huh?
To figure the following rankings, I took an average of the pass attempts of the Top 10 passers (two have played seven games, the rest have played six, so the attempts are probably a pretty accurate approximation) and then figured Moore's statistics to fit the average attempts.
Players are ranked according to passing yards per game. Bryant Moniz is the official leader at 361.7 yards per. Projected Kellen Moore would be first with 437.8 ypg.
1. Projected Kellen Moore, Boise State: 175-for-253, 2628 yards, 27 TDs, 2 INTs
2. Bryant Moniz, Hawaii: 186-for-283, 2532 yards, 21 TDs, 4 INTs*
3. Brandon Weeden, Okla St: 155-for-225, 1966 yards, 19 TDs, 8 INTs
4. Taylor Potts, Texas Tech: 189-for-286, 1875 yards, 18 TDs, 4 INTs
5. Ben Chappell, Indiana: 158-for-230, 1858 yards, 16 TDs, 3 INTs
6. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas: 132-for-191, 1844 yards, 14 TDs, 6 INTs
7. Russell Wilson, NC State: 170-for-294, 2124 yards, 18 TDs, 9 INTs*
8. Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M: 146-for-259, 1808 yards, 14 TDs, 9 INTs
9. Dominque Davis, ECU: 172-for-268, 1803 yards, 16 TDs, 9 INTs
10. Landry Jones, Oklahoma: 163-for-242, 1791 yards, 14 TDs, 3 INTs
11. Nathan Enderle, Idaho: 134-for-224, 1762 yards, 13 TDs, 10 INTs
24. Actual Kellen Moore, Boise State: 105-for-151, 1567 yards, 16 TDs, 1 INT
* seven games played
It's worth pointing out that the numbers are still quite spectacular even when you use the per-quarter estimates for Moore's statistics. Assuming that Moore has played 16 out of Boise State's 24 quarters this year (basically that he sat for half of four games, which he mostly did), he throws for nearly 100 yards and one touchdown each quarter he plays. If you figure that out for the season-to-date, those numbers would be:
Kellen Moore: 157-for-226, 2350 yards, 24 TDs, 2 INTs
That would be good for 421 yards per game, still tops in the country.
TD leaders
1. Projected Kellen Moore, Boise State: 27 TDs
2. Bryant Moniz, Hawaii: 21 TDs
3. Matt Barkley, USC: 20 TDs
4. Brandon Weeden, Okla St: 19 TDs*
5. Kyle Padron, SMU: 19 TDs
12. Actual Kellen Moore, Boise State: 16 TDs
* six games played
Yardage leaders
1. Projected Kellen Moore, Boise State: 2628 yards*
2. Bryant Moniz, Hawaii: 2532 yards
3. Russell Wilson, NC State: 2124 yards
4. Ryan Radcliff: C Michigan: 2032 yards
5. Robert Griffin III, Baylor: 1969 yards
32. Actual Kellen Moore, Boise State: 1567 yards*
* six games played
Appropriately enough, Moore's QB efficiency rating stays almost exactly the same with these project stats. He currently leads the country with a 190.36 rating. He would have a 190.06 with these new figures.
Statistical leaders: Running backs
Now for Doug Martin's turn on the statistic projection machine. Martin has carried 75 times this season. The Top Ten running backs in yards per game have carried an average of 126 times so far. Again, Martin is playing about 60 percent as much football as everyone else.
(Note: Out of the top ten runners, two have played seven games, two have played five games, and the rest have played six, so it averages out equally.)
Here are the top running backs in the country in yards per game. Projected Martin's stats are a reflection of his getting 126 carries.
1. LaMichael James, Oregon: 114 carries, 848 yards, 9 TDs **
2. Denard Robinson, Michigan: 137 carries, 1096 yards, 9 TDs *
3. Projected Doug Martin, Boise State: 126 carries, 927 yards, 7 TDs
4. Jordan Todman, UCONN: 122 carries, 761 yards, 8 TDs **
5. Bilal Powell, Louisville: 115 carries, 898 yards, 9 TDs
6. Kendall Hunter, Okla St: 135 carries, 830 yards, 10 TDs
7. Vai Taua, Nevada: 140 carries, 928 yards, 11 TDs *
8. Ronnie Hillman, SDSU: 118 carries, 785 yards, 10 TDs
9. Daniel Thomas, Kansas St: 145 carries, 782 yards, 7 TDs
10. Bobby Rainey, Western Ky: 154 carries, 771 yards, 7 TDs
11. Taylor Martinez, Nebraska: 81 carries, 758 yards, 12 TDs
36. Actual Doug Martin, Boise State: 74 carries, 544 yards, 4 TDs
** five games played
* seven games played
Martin's projected per game total would be 154 yards per game. Oregon's James averages 169 yards per, and Michigan's Robinson averages 156 yards per.
Yardage leaders
In terms of pure yardage, Martin would rank third in the country, behind two guys who have played seven games so far.
1. Denard Robinson, Michigan: 1096 yards
2. Vai Taua, Nevada: 928 yards
3. Projected Doug Martin, Boise State: 926 yards *
4. Bilal Powell, Louisville: 898 yards*
5. Cameron Newton, Auburn: 860 yards
42. Actual Doug Martin, Boise State: 544 yards *
* six games played
The one area that Projected Martin wouldn't end up near the top is in touchdowns. He has four in six games so far and would project to have seven with a full load of carries. Still, the top players in the country in that statistic (Taylor Martinez, Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Vick Ballard) each have 12.
Statistical leaders: Wide Receivers
I thought it best to figure Young and Pettis's potential statistics based on how they perform per quarter rather than to base it on national averages. It's pointless to compare receptions when you are awarding Young or Pettis the average of the Top Ten's. Per-quarter stats make more sense.
Titus Young averages more than two catches a quarter and nearly 50 yards. Pettis averages a catch-and-a-half and nearly 40 yards. Again, I went with the same assumption as Kellen Moore that these guys have truly played only 16 out of a possible 24 quarters for Boise State so far. Their projected stats reflect that.
Catches
1. Kamar Jorden, BGSU: 62 catches
2.-t Greg Salas, Hawaii: 61 catches
2.-t Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma: 61 catches*
4. Justin Blackmon, Okla St: 57 catches*
5. Armand Robinson, Miami (OH): 56 catches
6. Eric Page, Toledo: 54 catches
7. Kealoha Pilares, Hawaii: 53 catches
t-8. Projected Titus Young, Boise State: 50 catches *
t-8. T.J. Moe, Missouri: 50 catches*
10.-t Dwayne Harris, ECU: 49 catches*
10.-t Michael Egnew, Missouri: 49 catches*
24. Projected Austin Pettis, Boise State: 38 catches *
41. Actual Titus Young, Boise State: 33 catches *
101. Actual Austin Pettis, Boise State: 25 catches *
* six games played
Yards
1. Justin Blackmon, Okla St: 955 yards*
2. Greg Salas, Hawaii: 910 yards
3. Projected Titus Young, Boise State: 872 yards *
4. Kealoha Pilares, Hawaii: 793 yards
5. Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma: 700 yards*
6. Kamar Jorden, BGSU: 697 yards
14.-t Actual Titus Young, Boise State: 581 yards *
14.-t Projected Austin Pettis, Boise State: 581 yards *
80. Actual Austin Pettis, Boise State: 387 yards *
* six games played
Conclusion
So there you have it. Kellen Moore would easily be the nation's leader in pretty much everything that mattered. Doug Martin would be an All-American candidate. And Austin Pettis and Titus Young would be the most heralded wide receiver duo in the country.
Fortunately, we may be done with second-half sitting for awhile. Fourth-quarter sitting, maybe. But hopefully not second-half sitting. No sense sending Kellen Moore to the Heisman ceremony with half the attempts of everyone else in the country.