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Predicting Boise State football's rank in the preseason AP poll

Let me start off by saying that I heartily despise preseason polls. I have gone on record stating that the preseason poll system is broken and needs to be changed. 

That said, I can't help but wonder what those crazy preseason pollsters are up to.

Blame it on the preseason rankings of Phil Steele and Athlon Sports, but I have had preseason poll fever this week. Don't worry. It will pass. And come August I will be as indifferent and intolerant of preseason prognosticating as I've ever been.

But in the meantime, I wonder where the AP will put the Broncos when the media's preseason Top 25 comes out this summer. From the looks of things, Boise State should turn out alright.

This post was originally intended to be a podcast between myself and OBNUG's Nick, but the Internet had other plans. (Note: If anyone finds a 10-minute sound byte of two guys arguing about nothing floating around the Internet, can you email me?) Nick felt the Broncos would be in the mid-teens. I sort of agreed.

To get the conversation started, we came up with a list of schools who have been getting the highest rankings so far in the preseason mags.

Florida, Texas,Oklahoma, USC, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Alabama, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Oregon, LSU, Cal, Georgia, Georgia Tech, TCU

Given that list, there is no way in Bronco heaven that BSU cracks the Top Ten. The media likes them some name recognition, and there is more than enough in that group to sate their appetite. The Top Ten should already be set, more or less.

  1. Florida
  2. Texas
  3. Oklahoma
  4. USC
  5. Virginia Tech
  6. Ohio State
  7. Ole Miss
  8. Alabama
  9. Penn State
  10. Oklahoma State

Boise State will find itself competing in the teens with the likes of LSU, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Cal, TCU and Oregon. And depending on what side of the bed your typical AP voter wakes up on, Boise State could be as high as No. 11 or as low as the twenties.

I'm going to assume they'll be somewhere in between.

The pipe dream of being ranked preseason just outside the Top Ten is just that - a pipe dream. After the first group of ten teams listed above, I wouldn't be surprised to see Georgia Tech come in at No. 11, followed by one of the other two SEC teams on the list. If either LSU or Georgia gets ahead of the Broncos, that would be three SEC teams in the Top 15, which might be the max as far as AP voters are concerned.

The big remaining questions for the AP poll are these:

  • Will Oregon be ranked higher than Boise State?
  • Will the Broncos be the highest ranked non-BCS team?

Yes and yes.

With the way the Ducks finished last season and with how few other Pac-10 schools will be getting preseason hype (USC and ... ?), I fully expect Oregon to get ahead of the Broncos when the AP poll is released this summer. The difference won't be by much, but it will be a difference.

As far as non-BCS teams are concerned, the biggest threat to Boise State's preseason crown would be TCU, and at least for the time being, the Broncos seem to have that extra hype about them this time of year. Fresno fans know what I'm talking about.

So put the Ducks ahead of the Broncos and keep the Horned Frogs behind. That would put Boise State at No. 14 in the preseason AP poll.

I can live with that.

Even though I can't really live with the AP preseason poll itself.