Which teams should Bronco Nation be rooting for this weekend? Beats us. We can’t figure it out. There are way too many of them. Help us, Stephen Grettenberg. You’re our only hope.
The weekend's best game might be No. 2 Texas Tech at No. 4 Oklahoma, but there are a lot of games more important to Boise State’s chances at the BCS. After listing the relevant games, I break out the BCS rankings and the conference scenarios to figure out the convoluted and sometimes fickle ways things could go.
Of course, the most important part is for Boise State to look good in defeating competent rivals. Rankings throughout this article are using BCS rankings.
Here are the most important games
(Sorted by importancy)
- No. 7 Utah (11-0, 7-0 MWC) vs. No. 14 BYU (10-1, -1 MWC), 4:00 MT Saturday
Root for BYU to win but make it look ugly!
Boise State’s best chance is to get the Non-BCS conference automatic bid over each of these teams.
- No. 9 BCS Boise St. (10-0, 5-0 WAC) vs. Nevada (6-4, 4-2 WAC) 2:05 MT Saturday
Root for Boise State!!!
- No. 10 Ohio State (9-2, 5-1 Big 10) vs Michigan (3-8, 2-5 Big 10), 10:00 MT Saturday
Root for Michigan!
Due to a huge fan base and name recognition, Ohio State is the most likely team to get the nod for an "At Large" bid that otherwise might go to Boise State, unless Ohio State loses. Remember it is dollars, not fairness, that drives big bowls.
- No. 8 Penn State (10-1, -1 Big 10) vs. No. 15 Michigan State (9-2, -1 Big 10), 1:30 MT Saturday
Root for Penn State!
As the highest ranked Big 10 team with the fewest losses, a win sends Penn State to the Rose Bowl and should eliminate Michigan State from the BCS. A 10-2 Penn State would still be attractive for an "At Large" bid in what may be Joe Pa’s last year.
- No. 16 TCU (9-2, 4-1 MWC) vs. Air Force (8-3, 4-1 MWC), 1:30 pm MT Saturday
Root for Air Force!
This keeps TCU clearly out of contention for the MWC crown and any possible BCS bid. Since TCU also beat BYU, it takes a few bits of impact out of a BYU win over Utah.
- Arizona (6-4, 4-1 Pac 10) vs. Oregon State (7-3, 5-1 Pac 10), 5:00 pm MT Saturday
Root for Arizona!
OSU and USC each have one loss in conference, and OSU beat USC. If USC goes to the Rose Bowl, Boise State would be more attractive for an at-large bid for a BCS bowl than OSU. USC, even with two losses, might be considered attractive as an at-large BCS team.
- Bowling Green (5-5, 3-3 MAC) vs. Buffalo (6-4, 4-2 MAC), 4:00 pm MT Saturday
Root for Bowling Green!
After a season with a lot of disappointments, all three of Boise State’s non-conference opponents have been undefeated in the last two weeks. Bowling Green has struggled, but can still win the MAC East by winning their next two games. Here they take on Mac East-leading Buffalo.
Breakdown!
BCS#
Conf.
Rec.
Team
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
BCS Bowl
1
SEC
11-0
Alabama
-
Auburn
vs. Florida in
SEC Champ.
National
Sugar
2
Big 12
10-0
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Baylor
Maybe Big XII
Championship
National
Fiesta
None
3
Big 12
10-1
Texas
-
Texas A&M
Maybe Big
12 Champ.
National
Fiesta
None
4
SEC
9-1
Florida
Citadel
at Florida State
Alabama in
SEC Champ.
National
Sugar
5
Big 12
9-1
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
Oklahoma St.
Maybe Big
12 Champ.
National
Fiesta
None
6
PAC 10
9-1
USC
-
Notre Dame
at UCLA
National
Rose
At-Large
7
MWC
11-0
Utah
BYU
-
-
Auto
At-Large
None
8
Big 10
10-1
Penn State
Michigan State
-
-
Rose
At - Large
9
WAC
10-0
Boise State
at Nevada
Fresno State
-
Auto
At-Large
None
10
Big 10
9-2
Ohio State
Michigan
-
-
Rose
At-Large
None
11
SEC
9-2
Georgia
-
Georgia Tech
-
-
12
Big 12
9-2
Oklahoma St.
-
Oklahoma
-
-
13
Big 12
9-2
Missouri
-
Texas A&M
Big XII Champ.
Fiesta
None
14
MWC
10-1
BYU
at Utah
-
-
Auto
At-Large
None
15
Big 10
9-2
Michigan St.
at Penn State
-
-
Rose
At-Large
None
16
MWC
9-2
TCU
at Air Force
-
-
At Large
None
17
Mac
10-0
Ball State
Central Michigan
Western Michigan
Maybe MAC
Champ.
Auto
None
18
SEC
7-3
LSU
Mississippi
at Arkansas
-
-
19
Big East
8-2
Cincinnati.
Pitt
Syracuse
Hawaii
Auto BE
None
20
Big East
7-2
Pitt
at Cincinnati.
West Virginia
at Connecticut
Auto BE
None
21
PAC 10
7-3
Oregon State
at Arizona
Oregon
-
Rose
None
22
ACC
7-3
North Carolina
NC State
at Duke
Maybe ACC
Champ.
Orange
None
23
ACC
7-3
Miami
at Georgia
Tech
at NC State
Maybe ACC
Champ.
Orange
None
24
PAC 10
8-3
Oregon
-
Oregon State
-
-
25
ACC
7-3
Maryland
Florida State
at Boston
Colege
Maybe ACC
Champ.
Orange
None
What does all this actually mean? A lot of Big XII teams that are very good won’t be in the BCS. It is pretty certain at this point that either Alabama or Florida will represent the SEC in the national championship and the other will be in the Sugar Bowl. Barring an immense collapse of Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas, one of those three will be in the national championship, and one of those three or Missouri will be in the Fiesta Bowl. The four other BCS conference champions will get in, and that leaves two slots.
One slot will go to the highest BCS ranked non-BCS conference team. If Utah beats BYU this week it will be Utah. If BYU wins at Utah and Boise State wins at Nevada and versus Fresno State, it will be either BYU or Boise State with Boise State being a bit more likely. If BYU wins at Utah, Boise state loses a game, TCU beats Air Force causing a 3-way MWC tie, and Ball State wins out over Western Michigan, then I think Ball State gets in, though it might still be BYU.
The At Large Slot is much more complicated and depends a great deal on the undecided conference champions. I am breaking these out by conference:
Big 12: No teams in the running
- 2 Maximum. 1 team in the National Championship, 1 replacement in the Fiesta Bowl likely.
SEC: No teams in the running
- 2 Maximum. 1 team in the National Championship, 1 replacement in the Sugar Bowl likely.
ACC: No teams in the running regardless of the eventual champion
- All ACC teams already have 3 or more losses.
Big East: No teams in the running regardless of the eventual champion
- Only Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have two losses and they play this week.
Pac 10: USC could be an at-large team if it is not in the Rose Bowl.
- If USC goes to the National Championship, there might not be an open slot – with the winner of Oregon at OSU probably going to the Rose Bowl. If USC goes to the Rose Bowl, no other Pac 10 team will get the "At Large" bid as the others would have 3 or more losses.
Big 10: Penn State, Ohio State, & Michigan State are all in the running for the Rose Bowl or an "At Large" bid, each having one Big 10 Conference loss.
Non BCS Conferences: No. 7 Utah, No. 9 Boise State, No. 14 BYU, No. 16 TCU, No. 17 Ball State all could conceivably be in the top 14 by winning out their games and could be considered for either the "Non-BCS Automatic" or an "At Large" bid with an extreme amount of luck. None would be likely to get it the "At Large" bid, with the best of slim chances going to Boise State.