FanPost

The Nemesis of Boise State: The Triple Option

First off, I'm not rage writing. I'm not sitting at my laptop angrily typing or about to jump off the cliff of being a Boise State fan. I really don't get that upset when teams I like loose; I'm usually like this after a Boise loss.

2n6x3dl.0.jpg

Don't get me wrong though. I love watching Boise play and when they win I'm like these guys:

a3yt4w.0.jpg

I'm usually like #13 when Boise wins

I'm going to throw a lot of numbers and stuff, but I'll do my best to explain them and keep you from getting bored. If I fail at keeping you interested, I'm sorry. Ice cream can help with that.

So we all know how the triple option gets lots of yards, which is annoying. Right now five teams do the triple option: Air Force, Army, Georgia Tech, Navy, and New Mexico. Boise plays two of those every year, which by now we all hate! Here are some facts on those teams from the past four years (I went with 4 because anything past that takes too long, and also because New Mexico has only been running it for 4 years now)

First, yards per game! (The 2015 stats are based on numbers through week 13)

29lh9ie.0.jpg

So from what you can see, out of these 20 collective seasons, 18 times they've been in the top 10 for rushing yards, and always the top 13. Pretty much what we all expect and know already. Also, you probably noticed that these numbers are only for rushing yards, not total yards. Well, let me show you! Keep in mind that there are 128 FBS teams.

htsq42.0.jpg

Not as good as people expect or believe. They got lots of rushing yards, but that's it. They've been in the top 50 for total yards a whopping six times (three by Georgia Tech) out of a possible 20. So the myth that the triple option gets lots of yards is only partially true. They get lots of rushing yards, but not lots of total yards.

Their points per game ranks are even more interesting, since those matter more. Again, this is out of 128 FBS teams.

30njaxc.0.jpg

Not so good at getting points. In a collective 20 seasons, they have only been in the top 40 for scoring seven times (3 coming from Georgia Tech). So, what we learn from this is that they can move the ball, but for the most part are average or worse when it comes to scoring.

For those that are interested, this year those five teams have a combined record of 28-26 (Navy is the best with a 9-1 record). Since 2012 they are 128-129, with eight Bowl appearances and five wins in three seasons (Georgia Tech went to four of those bowls, with three wins). Only Navy has had a winning record among those five in each of the past four seasons.

This is how well New Mexico and Air Force's offense has done the past two seasons, both against Boise and against other teams.

2wdnko0.0.jpg

Basically, Boise doesn't slow down Air Force and New Mexico does great against the Broncos. Air Force's 37 points this weekend were the 3rd most they've scored on an FBS team this year; those two where they scored more were against Fresno (3-8) and Hawaii (2-10). New Mexico scored 31 points against Boise, the 3rd time they've scored 30+ points this season against FBS teams. The other two were Wyoming (1-10) and New Mexico State State (3-7). From a team's perspective, you NEVER want to be the reason an opponent's average goes up, or be on the end of one of their best games. That's what makes a team great: They make the other team play worse than usual, not allow them to play better.

And yes, I understand that the Mountain West is basically built towards beating Boise. Nevada was too, and from 2008-2010 (When Kaepernick was the full time starter), Nevada would average 70 less yards and seven fewer points against Boise than they would against other teams (and fyi, in that time frame Nevada was in the top 10 for yards all three seasons, and twice for scoring. That other year they were 12th in scoring. No triple option team has come close to matching those numbers throughout a season).

It's possible to slow down teams that built their season to beat you; Boise has done it. Those stat differences against Nevada aren't much, but at least Boise was able to make them play a little worse than usual, which is more than what they're doing now.

I also understand that Boise has had injuries in the secondary, but there isn't a way to prove that by having Thompson in last week or Summer-Gardner the week before, those teams would have scored 7 less points each. It's good speculation, but there isn't a way to prove that would have had an effect. Unless you have mathematical equations or statistics to back them not making simple mistakes, in which case I would really want to see that because it could be a potential million-dollar idea. Those deep passes came from the safeties worrying too much about the run and not the pass. Who's to say the original starting safeties wouldn't have also made the same mistake against run-heavy teams?

This table is numbers from the past two seasons, showing how the triple option does against Boise compared to how other offenses do.

103g9bs.0.jpg

The yardage difference is ugly (167 yard difference), but to a degree that is expected. That 14 point difference is what's scary. That can't be just because they run the triple option; that chart earlier shows how it's not an effective way of scoring. And also the fact that since 2012, from those five teams only Georgia Tech last year and Navy this season have averaged more than 35 points per game. 35 points a game this year would rank you at 31st in that category. Also, starting to get the sense that Georgia Tech is the only team that has been consistent with this style of offense...

Right now the nemesis to Harsin's team has been the triple option. They've been responsible for three of Harsin's six losses at Boise, and Boise's worst games defensively have been against them. Harsin as Boise's coach is 1-3 against the triple option, and the one win came mostly because Grant Hedrick and Jay Ajayi accounted for 659 total yards and eight touchdowns that game.

Basically what I"m trying to say with all these stats that took me forever to find (but it gave me a break from having to work on a 10 page history paper), the problem isn't Boise going against an unorthodox offense; the problem is how Boise is preparing for it. Boise's worst games are against them, their best games are against Boise, and Boise doesn't slow them down like they can.

When it comes to college football, you play to win your conference. You have to win your conference to make the playoff and to make a NY6 bowl (unless you're in a Power 5 Conference, which Boise isn't in). Right now the biggest problem for Boise is dealing with New Mexico and Air Force. If their goal is to win the Mountain West, the teams that pose the biggest threat are the triple option, and Boise needs to focus on those teams like how the rest of the conference focuses on Boise.

Last thing: The sky is not falling. Boise State is not entering a period of mediocre teams. You don't need to flip tables over in frustration (unless you want to; it's kinda fun!). Yeah these stats might look ugly, but they are fixable. Other teams play well against triple option teams, and so can Boise. It just needs to be a bigger point of emphasis for the team this off season.

This content was not created by OBNUG and therefore may not meet our standards. On the contrary, it probably exceeds them.

Trending Discussions