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Game Statistics... Unraveled

Football is a game of statistics, probabilities and tendencies. At least from a coaches point of view. What we are seeing the past four weeks is BSU coaches who either don't see the trends in their own decision making, or worse, have the hubris not to care or the ability to change.

After last week's debacle, Harsin stated that he didn't want to throw the ball as much. Did he really mean it? Does he have control of the play calling? In the second half against Air Force, BSU dropped back to pass on 74% of the plays. 28 Total pass plays in the second half for 110 net yards. With an ineffective pass game defenses simply stack the box, press coverage, and force you into the trap. Two weeks in a row Harsin has knowingly stepped into the trap.

Boise has shown a tremendous tendency over the past four weeks to rely on the pass game that is dismantled with simple pressure from the pass rush. The creativity is negligible on the play calling during that period. No roll outs, few if any play action passes and zero timing pattern throws. This is exacerbated by not moving the ball on first down. Again, second half stats show BSU as gaining only 3.1 yards on first down. On 6 of 13 first down plays in the 2nd half, BSU had either no gain or a loss of yardage.

Pressure is equally applied regardless of the down and yards to gain by stacking the box. This is the simplest defensive strategy: force them to throw when they are not a throwing team (yes, BSU is not a passing team why else would they have 6 running backs and 4 wide receivers). The Lobos exposed this weakness very neatly and the Falcons picked up where they left off. Indeed, they improved upon it. Completion percentage dropped from 54% to 48% and passer rating fell from 112 to 96.3 week over week. Or should I say "weak over weak"?

As for the defensive side of the ball, I doubt if Yates could coordinate his sock drawer. To wit: blitzing on 3rd and 12 leaving man coverage with no help over the top. If ever there were a down to show your nickle back defense it is 3rd and more than 10 to go and yet Yates chose to blitz when Air Force lined up showing max protection to enable their QB time for a crossing pattern to develop, which it did as there was no defender in position to cover him because he was involved in a block at the line of scrimmage. There are way too many mistakes, lack of hustle and outright being over physicalled by a much smaller team to warrant discussion. Yates has taken over the helm of the SS Robert Prince and maybe it would be best for him to go down with the ship. That being said, the triple option is the simplest defense imaginable and he made it look impossible to cover. Don't believe me? When was the last time a triple option team was in the national championship discussion? Give you a hint: their helmets were leather.

The tendencies are glaring on both sides of the ball. Opponents love predictability and the Mighty Blue turf is now open grazing for all...

This content was not created by OBNUG and therefore may not meet our standards. On the contrary, it probably exceeds them.

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