FanPost

Inside the numbers: Third down tendencies plus an SWR nugget

Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

I love to dig deep into the play-by-play data that is made available for games. There are so many interesting details that go beyond the boxscore and occasionally I come across a nugget like the realization that Kellen Moore never trailed by more than seven points.

While watching games this season, it seemed that Southwick always throws to Matt Miller on third down. A look at the data shows that is not exactly true, but while researching the Southwick to Miller connection, I came across another amazing stat nugget.

Turns out, Southwick throws to Miller a little over one-third of the time on third down. Miller has been the target on 8 of 23 third down throws, catching six. Kirby Moore is next on the list being targeted six times. Looking at 2012, Miller was also the main third down target. Southwick threw to Miller 32 times on his 96 third down passes. Moore was also the runner-up in 2012, being targeted 14 times, catching 12.

While looking at the third down information, I noticed that both Miller and Moore had astounding catch rates overall. Matt Miller has caught 21 of 25 passes thrown to him and Moore's percentage is even higher with 16 catches in 18 targets. However, neither of these possession receivers lead the team in catch rate.

Shane Williams-Rhodes has 14 catches in 14 targets for a perfect catch rate. Rhodes has caught nine passes from Southwick and another five from Grant Hedrick. Looking at 2012, he was also nearly perfect, catching 25 passes while being targeted 26 times.

(Unfortunately, the play-by-play data does not show the intended receiver when an interception occurs. The blank receiver column represents an interception or a ball that was thrown away.)

Here are the 2013 and 2012 Targets and Receptions:

2013

First Name

Last Name

Target

Reception

Yards

TDs

Int

1st Down

Dropped

Matt

Miller

25

21

188

1

0

12

0

Kirby

Moore

18

16

123

2

0

8

0

Geraldo

Boldewijn

17

11

113

0

0

7

1

Shane

Williams-Rhodes

14

14

137

2

0

8

0

Aaron

Burks

10

6

106

1

0

2

0

Dallas

Burroughs

6

2

11

0

0

0

0

Gabe

Linehan

4

2

38

0

0

2

0

Aaron

Baltazar

3

3

7

0

0

0

0

Jay

Ajayi

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

Holden

Huff

2

1

6

0

0

0

0

Troy

Ware

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Jack

Fields

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

6

0

0

0

2

0

0

2012

First Name

Last Name

Target

Reception

Yards

TDs

Int

1st Down

Dropped

Matt

Miller

96

66

769

5

0

39

2

Kirby

Moore

50

36

368

1

0

23

2

Chris

Potter

46

34

347

4

0

17

0

Holden

Huff

29

17

250

4

0

12

1

D.J.

Harper

29

23

163

1

0

9

1

Geraldo

Boldewijn

28

18

197

2

0

14

0

Shane

Williams-Rhodes

26

25

142

1

0

5

0

Aaron

Burks

25

17

319

1

0

11

0

Mitch

Burroughs

19

12

124

0

0

8

1

Dallas

Burroughs

9

4

100

0

0

2

0

Dan

Paul

6

3

25

1

0

1

0

Gabe

Linehan

4

1

23

0

0

1

1

Chandler

Koch

2

1

11

0

0

0

0

Hayden

Plinke

2

2

20

0

0

1

0

Jay

Ajayi

2

1

14

0

0

1

0

Tyler

Jackson

1

1

3

0

0

0

0

Joe

Southwick

1

1

6

0

0

0

0

Grant

Hedrick

1

1

20

0

0

1

0

18

0

0

0

7

0

0

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