Who will be the next BCS conference to die due to realignment? Will it be the ACC or the BigXII?
For many moons now, people have talked about the inevitable emergence of sixteen school football superconferences. As of now the SEC, B1G, and the ACC have fourteen members. (ACC actually has fifteen if you count Notre Dame, which I do, because ND will be forced to join a conference in the face of said superconferences.)
My opinion will is that it will revolve around the outcome of Maryland's lawsuit with the ACC regarding the $52 million exit fee. If the fee is ruled excessive and thrown out, then count on the B1G targeting more ACC schools (already rumors that they are interested in UVA, GaTech, UNC, and/or Duke). And also count on the BigXII targeting FSU and Clemson, and possibly others.
If the fee is ruled valid then no more ACC schools, and perhaps not even Maryland, are going anywhere. What then? Who does the BigXII go after? Will the Pac12 ever target UT, TTU, OU, and OSU again? If so what happens to the BigXII remnants? Does the BigXII reload or does the B1G, SEC take the best parts and leave the rest to the MWC?
I personally think that the $52 million will be ruled excessive, but since no one forced the schools to sign, they will be held to it; except Maryland, which did not sign, and as such will be allowed to leave with a much smaller exit fee.
SEC already has its Texas representative, but may want one of the Kansas schools, however, as may the B1G, which already has an Iowa school, while the SEC does not. Though the B1G doesn't have a presence in Texas, and may want one.
The only way any of the "smaller" market BigXII schools go to other conferences is if the Pac12 takes UT, TTU, OU, and OSU. Since the ACC will be off limits does the SEC target, say K-State and Iowa State, just for the markets? Does the B1G go after Kansas basketball and Baylor football?
That would leave TCU and WVU, and that would not a conference rebuild. I say the ACC might take WVU or even Cinci, And the new America 12 might take WVU back if Cinci bolts. Does TCU come back to the MW? What about BYU?
What if the everyone else is happy to stay at fourteen? What if the Pac12 only gets UT and OU to get fourteen? The BigXII will be forced to expand as well. (And don't say it can't happen. People say that the Texans and Oakies won't let their schools be split up, but they already let TAMU leave. If Texas and Oklahoma want to leave then they will go. They will sue and win because who are anybody else to tell that they can't do what is best for their school?)
I know this is a lot of "what ifs". But its fun. At least I think so.
Predict how you think the conferences will end up within the next few years.
BTW, as far as the last poll option goes, please only vote realistically. Don't be a putz and vote for Boise to get screwed just because it looks like a good funny choice.
Which BCS conference dies next?
BigXII picked apart by Pac12, SEC, and B1G, and dies. (2 votes)
ACC picked apart by SEC, B1G, and BigXII, and dies. (9 votes)
ACC fee remains as is, and know one leaves, BigXII looks elsewhere (4 votes)
BigXII loses some schools, and then reloads with Boise and others. (4 votes)
Pac12 grows a brain and invites Boise and SDSU (21 votes)
Nothing changes for at least five years, and Boise still gets screwed. (20 votes)
60 total votes