As it stands now, if things don't change in the Mountain West standings, the Boise State Broncos are the third best team in the MW, which likely means the Armed Forces Bowl vs. Navy. It would be nice to play somewhere different and play the honored tradition of the Naval Academy.
Now there is an outside chance Fresno goes to a BCS bowl, but NIU is ahead right now. If the Bulldogs go to the BCS, then we would probably be going to San Diego to play in the Poinsettia Bowl, which has a tie-in with Army. But since the Black Knights don't qualify for a bowl game, the bowl would get to pick someone else. Just who exactly, is the question.
If Utah State loses to Wyoming, then we play Fresno in the MWCG. But even if we win, the Bulldogs might still be ranked, in which case the Vegas Bowl would still pick them. They are not required to pick the MW winner.
The only way we go to Vegas is if San Jose State beats Fresno. Wyoming beats Utah State.Then we beat Fresno. Two loses would almost certainly knock Fresno down.
But do we want to go to Vegas, where would play the sixth best Pac12 team?
Or the Armed Services Bowl to play Navy?
Or the Poinsettia to play someone else?