So, I'm still doing my poll this year. Mostly because I like numbers and whenever I evaluate something (a team), I need some base principles to measure off of. So, Loque's poll does that for me.
Some of these basics are:
- Every Division 1-A football team was conceived equally. When we start a new year, that's exactly what it is. Toledo is as equal as Alabama. San Jose State starts the same as tOhio State. ULM can be better than Arkansas (too soon, Hogs?).
- Winning matters. Your wins are what defines you.
- SOS does matter, but not that much. I can't vacate SOS. Yes, the SEC does play in a tougher league -- but they also play the 2-4 Sun Belt + FCS teams year in, year out. Which leads to:
- 1AA teams will hurt you. You have 12-14 games to play a year, you don't need a warm-up. Get out there and get it done.
- New to 2012: Weighted margin of victory. This portion of the poll is a work in progress. I have to rely on too much opinion last year to move teams around. I was tired of really ugly wins by a B1G team getting overlooked by other pollsters, so this time it will hurt you. However, running the scoreboard against an inferior team won't help. I've weighted your MOV (both positive and negative/win or lose) with the teams SOS. Again, it's experimental, so we'll see what happens. This means no Tulsa 2008 games, ok, Boise?
I'm interested to see what happens this year to Boise State with a loss at the beginning of the season. I'm going to try and leave opinion out of it, but that may change quickly. As always, if you see any errors (all my stat entry is done manually), please let me know in an e-mail or twitter. Thanks and I hope you enjoy the poll this year.
Week 1 results: I threw something together last week because I didn't have the MOV process figured out. That poll is here.
Week 2 results: For now, because I'm using weighted MOV, there likely will never be any ranking ties. We'll see if that changes.
Using pictures until Kevan teaches me how to do a table .. also centering.
Boise State is ranked No. 108. That happens when there are only 23 winless teams. The fact that Idaho is ranked above Boise State at 105 probably just goes to show you have bad my poll really is.
Obviously, the poll won't take much shape until about week 4 or 5. Just like any "computer" poll, the more data available the better the results. There are other undefeated teams, but they are teams that have only played 1 game. With the exception of Florida State (and they're dubbed national title contenders..?), any two-win team has had to play at least one Div 1A game.
Strength of schedule is, again, too early to tell. You can tell by the results above that SOS will be 1 of 5 levels, running from 0.00 to 1.00 in quarter-level increments. And of course, it's not very accurate as any winning team will have never played a 1.00 (100% opponent win percentage) because that team defeated everyone on their schedule. Likewise the same for a winless team. Their SOS may be the best since they haven't defeated any of their opponents.
As with Team SOS, this is still too weak to tell regardless of more of the teams. For example, Conference USA sits on top with a 58.3% SOS, but mostly because their conference win percentage is only 27%.
This isn't my own stat because it's just a conferences' record, but it is interesting. For the most part, a teams strength of schedule is determined in the first 4-5 weeks of college football -- when teams are playing their OOC schedule. One they start playing each other (especially in leagues that play everyone else in their conference), your conference foes wins and losses will all level out.
So, the Big 12 is pretty important in the national title race .. and the MWC just sucks. Well, at least we're not the suckiest, right?
Are you a nerd and want more details that just what is captured here? Head on over to the same spreadsheet link above for Week 1 (also linked here) for more Week 2 rankings.
Please leave your observations or suggestions below.