OBNUG roundtable: Kellen's future
by Drew Roberts on Feb 9, 2012 8:00 AM PST
in Boise State football
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PrintKellen Moore's storied NCAA career is at an end (story illustrated by Maurice Sendak) and his NFL draft future is uncertain, so I thought we'd be remiss to not at least attempt to analyze Kellen's potential in "the league". Guys that matter (Toddy McShay, Tony Pauline, Wes Bunting) seem to (mostly) like what Kellen Moore has to offer (anticipation, accuracy, awareness) while a few hacks writers at Bleacher Report loudly proclaimed Moore to be undraftable. So which "analysts" are right about Moore? The guys paid to do this for a living, or the guys that fulfilled two of the 3 requirements to write for B/R (working keyboard, internet connection, ability to make slideshows)? And what of Kellen's NFL future? Will he be a great backup, a future starter, or a Canadian hero? I'm too emotionally invested in Kellen Moore to start this roundtable as I took each Senior Bowl jab at KM personally. What are your thoughts on the matter? First person to mention Kellen's height gets a knuckle sandwich!
Kevan: I think I saw (read?) that Bleacher Report slideshow: Ten Ways Kellen Moore is Like Danny DeVito." I got halfway through, started getting accosted for not providing an email address, then left.
Drew: The "Kellen Moore is undraftable" camp seem to be overly hung up on what Kiper types like to refer to as "measurables"...which, in my humble opinion, is exactly what is wrong with the NFL draft. Allow me to name a few QBs that had "off-the-charts" measurables: Ryan Leaf, Jamarcus Russell, Rick Mirer, Brady Quinn, NATHAN ENDERLE! Forgive me for shouting the last one, but seriously, Nathan Enderle got drafted...a guy with a college completion percentage a full 20 points lower than Kellen's in 2011. A guy who threw just 10 fewer interceptions his freshman year than Kellen threw in his entire career. Lest you think I'm jumping on Enderle because he's a Vandal, I could find dozens of quarterbacks with similar statistics whose only draftable quality was that they were at least 6'4" and possessed a rudimentary knowledge of football. Kellen's a freakin' wizard with a football but doesn't have to stoop to get through doorways and NFL scouts want nothing to do with him? I just don't buy it. I'm resigned to the fact that many lesser QBs will get the call on draft day(s) before Kellen, but if he slips past the 5th round, I give up.
A first-rounder if I ever saw one (the one on the right)
Kevan: The NFL likes its measurables and its prototypes because generally those shapes and sizes of players perform the best at the next level. For every Ryan Leaf, there is a Peyton Manning. For every Nathan Enderle, there is a ... John Friesz? I don't know about that one.
Drew: Lots of money is at stake, so I see why it's less of a gamble to pick up a quarterback that could play tight end *cough* Tebow *cough* if he doesn't work out under center, but Kellen's game tape should more than assuage any fears teams might have about his command of an offense, or his longevity for that matter—he's not fast...but he rarely gets sacked. And do you mind if we just dispel the arm-strength myth right here and now? While I have no doubt that being able to throw the ball more than 10 yards is a desirable trait for an NFL QB...scouts act as if QBs are routinely asked to throw from one endzone to the next...from their knees. Kellen has plenty of arm strength to get the ball downfield. Does he have Favre-like "zip" on his ball? No. He may even float sideline routes from time-to-time, but this is the one area of Kellen's game he can improve. Look, he's not getting any taller or faster...but I'm sure he can learn or train to put a bit more velocity on the ball. QBs aren't born and the die with the same arm strength. Kellen can fix any strength or mechanical issues he may have. But your dumb 6'6" QBs that already possess cannon arms aren't going to get any less dumb.
"Did somebody say 'dumb'?"
Your turn
If you can put your rabid homerism aside—where do you see Kellen landing (besides a coaches chair)? Will a team take a no-brainer gamble on our diminutive hero? Let us know in the comments.
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I can't put my emotions aside on this one.
I, too, seethed with hatred when I saw any disparaging remarks about Kellen via Twitter, etc. But not from B/R. I just laughed.
I say yes, he gets drafted. But I don’t know if he gets his fair shot in game situations. The untalented receivers he’s working with now (read: any non-BSU receiver, specifically B1G) seem to leave him hanging out to dry. Even I could catch his passes when they hit me in the hands. And I would make an awful, horrible choice as a receiver (dude who stands on sidelines saying “go team”, i’m your guy).
But it was cool that he won that QB challenge. Floyd saying he was the best receiver there (not that there was a great selection) is awesome as well.
My QB has an AWARD named after him. How about yours?!
Moore’s effortless dissection of the defense in...practice reminded coaches why he’s here, despite his much-maligned measurables. --Chadd Cripe
Twitter: @iwasrun
*I believe Floyd...*
was referring to Kellen as the best QB there. It was a nice acknowledgment by Floyd.
ha!
My QB has an AWARD named after him. How about yours?!
Moore’s effortless dissection of the defense in...practice reminded coaches why he’s here, despite his much-maligned measurables. --Chadd Cripe
Twitter: @iwasrun
It just gets better for him actually...
In the NFL seeing (personally) appears to be believing. Film, stats, etc are just a starting point. I was glad the Redskins ran one of the teams at the Senior Bowl. Talk about a team that needs to find a long term solution at QB. The All Star Challenge is a “show” but think about the QB’s that have won the thing over the years – guys like Rogers, Dalton, etc.
The NFL is about to get a good long look at him at the Combine, and its really up to him to be himself. He has never failed at any level at anything having to do with being a QB…and I’ll wager that will continue. He will be drafted, and then he gets to prove he belongs all over again.
The good news for Kellen is…its not that hard for him. :)
what can he do at the combine that would help him physically though?
Press? no. Shuttle? no.
lots of QBs over the years never throw because they don’t want to hurt their stock. they opt to throw at their pro days with receivers they like.
My QB has an AWARD named after him. How about yours?!
Moore’s effortless dissection of the defense in...practice reminded coaches why he’s here, despite his much-maligned measurables. --Chadd Cripe
Twitter: @iwasrun
I agree...
Kellen doesn’t have much to gain at the combine. His 40 and shuttle times will be well below other QBs being evaluated and most of the throws made at the combine are 1-on-1 or to the receiver running routes alone. There are no defenses to be read or 7-on7 situations. I am curious to see how he does on the Wonderlic.
"It's not whether the glass is half empty or full, it's who is pouring the water" - Mark Cuban
Isn't it weird that they don't really test quarterbacks at all?
Why not have an accuracy test? Who can throw a ball through a tire from 20 yards out the most times?
Arm strength? Why not have a radar gun and we can see how they compare?
Guess I need to watch the Combine
How do they test arm strength? I stand corrected – I guess being the smartest QB there will have to do…
Where the Wild Things Are...or were you dreaming of In the Night Kitchen, Drew?
Could be, as Kellen is simply not afraid of monsters in the dark. I hope to have my confidence in NFL draft deciders not be dashed. Yes, huge money is at stake, but in my view, that means you hire the best brain, not the most nimble foot.
If accuracy could be taught, why are there teams looking for QB’s when they already bought one. Same goes for strategy and preparation. Strategy is an intellectual game of battleship and preparation is a work ethic. Either you are able to out-think your opponent or you aren’t, and I have had little success in teaching a love of work ethic. Kellen has these traits and there isn’t an NFL team out there that doesn’t need him.
Now, about that height issue…I’m not certain KM has even started shaving yet, so maybe the growth spurt is just around the corner. Some smart team is going to benefit from that. :)
"Grateful to the friends and the circumstances that enabled me to be a Bronco. I'm just glad I lived to see these days." SeniorChief
by boiseblues on Feb 9, 2012 8:36 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Genetics are a weird thing
How is it that recent commit Mario Yakoo (who just turned 17) looks like he’s 35 and Kellen looks like he’s 12?
Do you suppose...
he really is 12 and his dad borrowed a birth certificate? Wouldn’t be the first time…ask China.
"Grateful to the friends and the circumstances that enabled me to be a Bronco. I'm just glad I lived to see these days." SeniorChief
man.
if this were the case, when he hits puberty, he’ll be incredible.
My QB has an AWARD named after him. How about yours?!
Moore’s effortless dissection of the defense in...practice reminded coaches why he’s here, despite his much-maligned measurables. --Chadd Cripe
Twitter: @iwasrun
by Grindhouse on Feb 9, 2012 9:14 AM PST up reply actions 3 recs
that's a fact, and that's a rec.
"Grateful to the friends and the circumstances that enabled me to be a Bronco. I'm just glad I lived to see these days." SeniorChief
I really HATE to make this comparison, but I'm gonna have to...don't yell at me Nuggies
Tebow. Yes, that guy.
I understand that KM and Tebow play completely different games, but the comparison is this: They were both completely dominating as college football players. So what does this mean in KM’s case?
I think he’ll get an opportunity somewhere, I just don’t know how it will pan out. As we’ve seen with Tebow, answers aren’t always easy to come by. He’s been in the league a couple of years, started half a season, and we still have absolutely no idea whether he can “play” in the NFL.
The similarity between KM and Tebow is that they are both “different”. My heart tells me that Kellen’s intelligence will ultimately be a difference maker, leading him to succeed where Tebow, um, might possibly fail or not? Then again, I’m sure there’s some people in Gainesville and Denver screaming that Tebow’s “athleticism” will ultimately be the difference maker.
As noted above…the NFL is a weird league. I’m pulling for Kellen, but I could certainly see things go either way.
Oh, and for the record, I hate that Tebow guy. Just sayin’.
"Nobody likes it"
"I'm tired of even the BCS name"
"The whole thing needs to be changed."
-Coach Pete on the BCS.
I like the guy ok, and he is fun to watch...
but I wish he would keep his religious beliefs private. The turf, imo, is not the place to proselytize.
"Grateful to the friends and the circumstances that enabled me to be a Bronco. I'm just glad I lived to see these days." SeniorChief
I've got no problems
With the religious side of it. He is excessive, but the fact that they don’t allow one to write on eyeblack, but you can get whatever tat you want rubs me wrong. Speach is speach, I don’t care if it is religious, or in favor of dogs, or whatever, it is his right to speak it.
Why?
Should actors and singers keep their beliefs to themselves on off the screen/stage? No, because that is who they are. Why do people expect religious people to tone down their religious beliefs? Because they don’t want to be challenged (or perhaps convicted). It’s the same reason people want actors and singers to shut up and just act/sing. But if actor has beliefs and views that are 180 degrees from yours then why would you support them just because they make cool movies, or singers because they play good music? Same goes for Tebow (and all athletes) you should like them or hate them for all they are, not just their performance of the field. And BTW Tebow does not proselytize. Members of any religion are expected to gain converts. NO ONE EVER told Ali to hush his Muslim beliefs and he praised Allah at EVERY turn and chance. Tebow is simply giving his God the glory every chance he gets. That’s all I’m going to say.
maybe that's why
I don’t watch Mel Gibson or Tom Cruise anymore. When it starts costing the owners money, change happens. Freedom allows me not to watch when I believe something is inappropriate. Like I said, Tebow is fun to watch, but when I get tired of his fervor I will change the channel.
"Grateful to the friends and the circumstances that enabled me to be a Bronco. I'm just glad I lived to see these days." SeniorChief
by boiseblues on Feb 9, 2012 3:22 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed on Gibson and Cruise
I can’t stand watching either one anymore.
"Nobody likes it"
"I'm tired of even the BCS name"
"The whole thing needs to be changed."
-Coach Pete on the BCS.
I agree with both B.D. and BB's responses
I am all for Tebow doing what he thinks is right, as is his God given and American right to do. I don’t see him trying to ‘convert’ the line judge, or his WR, or the reporter on national TV. I just see him tell it like he feels it is, that God gave him the ability and so he gives god the credit. I have no idea why that rubs some people the wrong way so often when we see so many people express so many of their opinions in so many ways…many of them tacky or inappropriate themselves.
At the same time, I fully support BB’s right to be annoyed and change the channel. That’s called personal choice and personal choice is fine. Personal choice is not fine when it is no longer personal and we start asking the NFL to ban ‘Tebowing’, or the Government to censor MSNBC’s latest interview of Tom Cruise, or Pamela Anderson’s nude posing for PETA’s campaign to be collected en masse and burned.
I Wall of Text like it's the in thing to do
"...and just things really starting to unravel now for Utah..." Herbie, BSU vs. Utah, 22 Dec 2010
I agree
I really see the comparison, living here in Tebowia, the land formerly known as Florida… They LOVE Tebow here, seriously, in the small manger scene outside the courthouse I work at, they have the shepards, the wisemen, mary and joseph, the baby jesus, and a small tebow in Bronco gear next to the wisemen. That being said, when Tebow came out of college, there was scuttle that he may not go until the 4-5th round. The Jags thought that they would be able to get him in the second or third round. He is just not the ttraditional guy that you see at QB. In that sense Kellen is the same. Not the traditional but a winner none the less. I see Kellen getting drafted as a clipboard holder, second string qb, that ends up getting an opportunity ala Brady and Cassell… He knows the system, he knows the game and when he gets his shot, he is all pro.
Reason why he won't get drafted?
He’s already as smart or smarter, football-wise, than three quarters of the coaches in the NFL. They’re afraid of him making them look bad.
Time is the great equalizer.
You might not be far off...
Mike Florio made a similar assertion last year when Greg McElroy was thought to have scored a 48 on the Wonderlic.
That said, scoring too high can be as much of a problem as scoring too low. Football coaches want to command the locker room. Being smarter than the individual players makes that easier. Having a guy in the locker room who may be smarter than every member of the coaching staff can be viewed as a problem — or at a minimum as a threat to the egos of the men who hope to be able when necessary to outsmart the players, especially when trying in some way to manipulate them.
"It's not whether the glass is half empty or full, it's who is pouring the water" - Mark Cuban
yeah, I've heard this before in relation to Myron Rolle,
the former FSU safety who went accomplished Pre-Med, WHILE playing college ball, won the Rhodes Scholarship, and attended Oxford for a year as a result. He had a lot of athletic ability but I’m not sure he’s in the NFL now. Another thing I’ve heard is that NFL coaches don’t like guys with options. Dumb jocks whose only manner of making a good income is football…that’s the guys they want, guys desperate enough to break their bodies from effort and sheer will. It’s kind of a sad reality of the sport.
I Wall of Text like it's the in thing to do
"...and just things really starting to unravel now for Utah..." Herbie, BSU vs. Utah, 22 Dec 2010
to use a non-football analogy.
as a baseball coach, which player do you choose:
the kid who is a polished runner and gets to the bag in 3.2 seconds?
or
the kid who is a horrible runner, but still gets there in 3.5 seconds?
the horrible runner. if he can already be that fast with poor form, with training and coaching, he could improve his form and not only get to 3.2 but perhaps better.
in this case, would already being a football-savant hurt kellen or only help him?
My QB has an AWARD named after him. How about yours?!
Moore’s effortless dissection of the defense in...practice reminded coaches why he’s here, despite his much-maligned measurables. --Chadd Cripe
Twitter: @iwasrun
Measurables
I hope they measure completion rates, wins, low numbers of interceptions, plays and gains in fourth quarter, etc., not just heighth and speed. If they do, some lucky team will draft a winner. If not, who in their right mind wouldn’t want him as a coach?
The Irony Here
You mention Wes Bunting, but fail to mention his actual grade on Kellen Moore—a 5.7. Under that system, (the same one I use), this is what a 5.7 means:
5.7 Has a deficient area of his physical skills that CANNOT be overcome, but has been productive and can contribute as a backup and spot player only.
I actually gave Moore a 5.8 which is actually the same exact wording, but instead of “cannot” it says “will be difficult.” So, I’m actually higher on Moore than Bunting is and Miller isn’t that far below us. Saying a guy has a “chance” to be a backup and saying he’ll light up the CFL aren’t that drastically different.
Signed, “B/R Hack” #2
by Michael Schottey on Feb 9, 2012 9:57 AM PST reply actions
Is there any chance you could re-post this in a slideshow format?
I can’t comprehend the meaning of this post with 12 screens dividing the content with semi-relevent pictures on each page….
The Bulldogs had no answers, so they called timeout. And at that moment, every single person in the stadium knew that Georgia was in over its head. It was instant singularity of Boise State's greatness.
-Kevan Lee
by TooMuchYoung on Feb 9, 2012 10:14 AM PST via mobile up reply actions 4 recs
Thassa Rec!
"Nobody likes it"
"I'm tired of even the BCS name"
"The whole thing needs to be changed."
-Coach Pete on the BCS.
Hence the (mostly)
Bunting towed the company line about Kellen’s arm strength and height, but on the radio had some good things to say about him in the composure and anticipation category.
And geez…how many B/R hacks are there?
by Drew Roberts on Feb 9, 2012 10:18 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
So what you're saying is...
Rather than look at the person’s actual evaluation of a guy, you’re going to cherry pick the nice comments he said about the prospect?
You also did the same with Todd McShay who also has said that he would rather have Russell Wilson of the two “short” quarterbacks and called Kellen Moore “not athletic enough” and picked apart his arm strength.
Tony Pauline re-did his rankings after the Senior Bowl and put a 6th round grade on Moore (also, notably, below Wilson).
by Michael Schottey on Feb 9, 2012 10:32 AM PST up reply actions
Yes.
Just like analysts cherry pick Kellen’s height and supposed lack of arm-strength while completely negating his transcendent football IQ and pocket awareness.
Furthermore, “certain” writers couldn’t have been more unprofessional in their assessments of Moore…so I’m more than happy to professionally pick them apart.
by Drew Roberts on Feb 9, 2012 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
"Cherry Pick"
You’re talking about analysts weighing certain traits above others. No one is ignoring his football IQ, but just about everyone acknowledges that he will have limitations because of his size and (very real) lack of arm strength.
Meanwhile, you’re more than willing to talk about how certain analysts “(mostly) like” Kellen Moore while ignoring what their actual assessment is. Then you throw the word “hack” around.
You like Kellen Moore as a Boise State fan, that’s great. I actually met Moore at the Senior Bowl and think he’s a great young kid myself. I think he will have a long successful career in NFL clipboard holding and then coaching (much like the route traveled by Jason Garrett, Major Applewhite and others).
Just don’t ignore the negative things people say about Moore and pretend they like him…even “(mostly)”…that’s just misleading.
by Michael Schottey on Feb 9, 2012 10:55 AM PST up reply actions
Yes...some are ignoring his football IQ and 53 gametapes
And this is a fan site, so of course our opinions are skewed. No one claimed that Kellen Moore will be a first-rounder…just that evaluations lean notoriously toward the big kid with a strong arm.
Also as a fan site, opinions are tinted. I have no problem with people giving a surgical analysis of Kellen Moore’s pros and cons. Your counterpart during Senior Bowl week probably tweeted about Kellen Moore at a rate of about 3 to 1…every single tweet was disparaging, mocking, and one-sided. Hence, the “hack” term.
by Drew Roberts on Feb 9, 2012 11:02 AM PST up reply actions
Who the hell is this guy?
Ok, no one else wants to say it then I will.
Michael, why are you trolling Boise State fan boards looking for Kellen Moore content? Or did your Google Search for people calling you and your friends over at the B/R a bunch of hacks return this thread? There are some 50 QBs available in this year’s draft. Yet, every person with an opinion wants to make sure they get a jab or two (or a dozen) in about Kellen’s arm strength and stature. Kudos! All of you can point out the obvious. But you want to come here and argue with the very people who had the sheer enjoyment of watching all 53 games of Kellen’s college career and then argue with them about who Kellen Moore really is? Unbelievable.
I'll tell you who he isn't (an old guy's perspective)
Michael, I acted with Will Shakespeare, I knew Will Shakespeare, Will Shakespeare was a friend of mine. Michael, you’re no Will Shakespeare
Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even the dull and the ignorant; they, too, have their story.
Avoid loud and aggressive persons; they are vexations to the spirit.
by SeniorChief on Feb 11, 2012 2:30 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
So it comes down to much more than Moore.
Kellen is in a bad spot. A really bad spot. He is probably going to be that 5-7 round draft pick if he is super lucky. Undrafted free agent is more possible. It has nothing to do with Kellen and everything to do with the situation he is in, as stated by Kevan and Drew in their article.
His most likely career path is going to be similar to Ian Johnson’s: Some time on some practice squads, some time cut from practice squads, rinse, cycle, repeat. And it will be this way no matter how good he is unless he catches some breaks. Basically, he has to pick the practice squad of the team whose quarterbacks are going to be injured a whole lot next year. Barring that, he’ll get cut and go somewhere else to roll the dice again.
Let’s take America’s latest sensation, New York Knicks PG Jeremy Lin, as an example. Jeremy Lin is an amazing point guard. Honestly. Absolutely terrific. He is single-handedly making me care about basketball again. Lin didn’t fit the mold, though, so he went undrafted. He then schooled the #1 overall draft pick in summer league play, earning him a spot at the end of the bench of the Golden State Warriors. They cut him, he went to the Rockets. They cut him, he went to the Knicks. Now, during this whole process, Lin was just as amazing as a PG as he is right now, but he was given no opportunities to show it. Then the Knicks signed him, lost all of the PGs to injury and he is tearing it up in ways that everyone but Jeremy Lin himself are surprised about.
This is Kellen’s fate, but for every Lin that breaks through there are dozens who never get the shot. Kellen will likely be one of those who never do. On the bright side, Utah just hired 24 year old former Utah QB Brian Johnson as their Offensive Coordinator, so precedent has been set for us to do something similar. :)
Kellen doesn't strike me as the kind of guy to spend years on the periphery like IJ
If it becomes clear to him that he doesn’t have a future in the NFL he’s got plenty of other options to pursue.
I tend to agree most with these two assessments
1) Kellen is probably good enough to get a look in a mini-camp as a UDFA and then if he shows enough maybe he makes it on to a squad for the summer camp and the pre-season. If he can shine when he gets his snaps, then he can make it on a Practice Squad for a season. There he can get a small pay check for a year and being the intelligent football sponge he is he will glean a lot of information from the opportunity.
2) Like NG states, I think Kellen will get on with his life and head down the path of coaching, hopefully here in Boise. Kellen wants to be in Football and I think he will come to the decision quickly that not playing but coaching keeps him there.
Kellen reminds me a lot of Graham Harrell. Set multiple NCAA records and is the pinnacle of QB in the history books of his alma mater. Graham and Kellen both have quick releases and see the field well and get the ball into open spaces where the receivers can make plays. Kellen’s knock is his size and arm, Graham’s knock was his arm and the system (more shotgun in the Air Raid) he played under in college. Both are sons of HS coaches and have tremendous “brains” for the game.
Graham went the route of UDFA and then a extremely short stint in the CFL and has been the PS QB for the Packers the last 2 years. Matt Flynn will likely get traded this off season and Graham will back up Rodger’s next year. Graham has gotten his arm stronger and is making some of the throws that many said he would not. Thompson and McCarthy seem high on him, so despite the tough road, he is seeing the opportunity to make the 53 man this year and might make it somewhere in a few years like Flynn seems to be destined.
Again I think Kellen will take a different route, but with more 4 & 5 wides sets in the NFL, his experience in Shotgun will not be the knock it was 3-5 years ago and he is fine under center in my opinion and will master the 3 & 5 step pass quickly. NFL teams are likely to pass him in the Draft or take him late, but that does not change his opportunity to make a squad. Danny Woodhead and Wes Welker just played in a Super Bowl, will and desire can take you where ever you decide to go. Although Kellen Moore as an Offensive Coordinator in the next 4 years is not too far a stretch.
by idaho_techsan on Feb 9, 2012 1:19 PM PST up reply actions
Don't get me overly optimistic about Lin, Spyder...
…as a Knicks fan, I expect total disappointment all the time. It’s the yang to my BSU football yin.
"Nobody likes it"
"I'm tired of even the BCS name"
"The whole thing needs to be changed."
-Coach Pete on the BCS.
IF only NFL Measurables Looked Like The Back of a Baseball Card.
Baseball Like Measurables
Touchdowns
Percent of Completions
Number of Wins
Average Number of Receivers Per Game
Average Margin of Score in Wins
Number of Losses per Season
Win percentage
Interceptions
Turnovers
Football IQ
The Brain Dead Sports Reporter Football Card
How Tall
How Fast
Arrest Record
SEC Affiliation Yes? No? Check one
No Way Would I Draft This Guy He is Under 6’ weighs too much and can’t run.
The only thing the BCS has to fear, is fear itself, and Blue is the color of fear.
by Trapperpk on Feb 9, 2012 11:00 AM PST reply actions 3 recs
I don't know. I need to see him take some snaps against NFL athleticism and film crunching first.
Like it or not, Kellen WILL have limitations to his arm strength and that might break his NFL career. It’s not that important when speaking about the deep ball, that’s not what NFL types are talking about when they say arm strength. It’s the short to intermediate range zip, how fast the ball gets there before the window shuts, especially the sideline routes. Windows of opportunity close much much quicker at the NFL level primarily due to the amount of film crunching and familiarity NFL defenses get with various QBs. That arm strength is something that, to a large degree, you are either born with or not. You can’t just go to the gym and increase your arm size to gain more zip the same way a baseball pitcher can either throw a 100 MPH fastball or he can’t…muscle has very little to do with it. Whether Drew Brees is throwing a 15 yard out or a 70 yard bomb, his motion is the same…cock back, step up, release, follow through. It is effortless and graceful. When Kellen throws those distances his entire body winds up like a baseball pitcher on a mound, it takes freaking forever to get the ball into the air and he’s putting everything’s he got into it. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t meet or even exceed the bare minimum amount for arm strength but it is a red flag.
That said, Drafttek is an NFL draft site that uses a program containing the latest measurables and level of interest for every draft eligible player. It then combines that with the perceived interests, needs, and draft history of all 32 NFL teams, runs a simulation, and spits out a result for all 7 rounds. It’s been pretty successful as far as Mock Drafts go. Currently, it says Kellen Moore is the first Boise St. player off the board in the 3rd round by the Seattle Seahawks (followed immediately by Doug Martin to the Chiefs.
I Wall of Text like it's the in thing to do
"...and just things really starting to unravel now for Utah..." Herbie, BSU vs. Utah, 22 Dec 2010
I forgot...that was my Objective Negative reasons
My positive outlook, and something I truly believe, is that Kellen Moore has the kind of football mind (and ability to accomplish what that mind sees) that comes along once a generation. I think Kellen is, quite possibly, the second coming of Joe Montana. This si the kind of guy you draft on instinct, you take a gamble on him, despite the red flags. This dude is so good at what he does, you don’t just draft him, you create an offense for him. You design a playbook and acquire the type of personnel needed to make this guy successful because if you can surround him with what he needs you will have a really good chance at a few Lombardis.
I’m honest when I say I don’t know how it will pan out. But IF he can get the ball to the receiver before it gets picked or batted down on a consistent basis, then he will be unstoppable because he’s smarter than everyone else, he keeps the huddle calm, and he instills a reason to believe in his teammates. That’s worth investigating imo and whoever pulls the trigger on that and can surround him with the right system/players will have done very well for themselves.
I Wall of Text like it's the in thing to do
"...and just things really starting to unravel now for Utah..." Herbie, BSU vs. Utah, 22 Dec 2010
I agree with both of your posts
Kellen’s arm strength is a bigger concern than his height. A lot of comparisons have been made to Drew Brees, but where I think the biggest difference comes between the two is the arm strength when pressure does not allow them to drive on the ball. Brees still gets zip on the ball, where Kellen has to step into a throw in order to get any velocity.
Kellen throws off his back foot frequently and often by design in order to get the ball out quickly. His anticipation and timing are unmatched and usually make up for his lack of arm strength. It is when the pocket collapses and there is a need to still zip the ball in a tight window where Kellen will struggle the most.
That said, most NFL snaps do not require the necessity of making a 15 yard throw with a defender hanging on to your shoulders. Yes the NFL defenders will be bigger and faster than competition that Kellen has faced, but the offensive players will also be bigger and faster and I believe the Kellen will adjust just fine.
"It's not whether the glass is half empty or full, it's who is pouring the water" - Mark Cuban
In the case I'm trying to illustrate though
it won’t matter how big and fast the offensive players are. The question is can Kellen zing a 15 yard out to his WR before Lardarius Webb and Ed Reed can figure out he just looked them off and close the gap. Those guys will get fooled far fewer times than at the college level and, when they do get fooled, they will recover much much faster both mentally (less time actually being hoodwinked) and physically (faster closing speed to the trajectory of the ball). These things cannot be mitigated by the WR much, if at all.
I Wall of Text like it's the in thing to do
"...and just things really starting to unravel now for Utah..." Herbie, BSU vs. Utah, 22 Dec 2010
Actually the 5th
In the latest DraftTek Simulation (from yesterday)
by Michael Schottey on Feb 9, 2012 11:18 AM PST up reply actions
I just ran the sim and it has him in the 3rd. Am I doing something wrong?
I ask because, frankly, 5th sounds more appropriate and 3rd seems like a reach. I have a friend who is nuts about Tebow and tries to get me to retract my belief that Denver overdrafted him. My stance is that it doesn’t matter how good you feel about a player or what his results are after, draft value is about being right when it comes to where a guy is projected at by the other 32 teams and being the first to pick him up at that spot.
I Wall of Text like it's the in thing to do
"...and just things really starting to unravel now for Utah..." Herbie, BSU vs. Utah, 22 Dec 2010
If you're running the sim yourself...
I can’t tell what the inputs are that are making his value so high. I was talking about the "official"mock for the site. Which is a little different than the user-generated model.
It is possible that the code in the simulation is from a previous big board update and not in the most recent that has Moore 134th overall prospect (still a little high IMO). I will have someone look into it.
by Michael Schottey on Feb 9, 2012 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah, I went to your link and saw that you are checking from the Consensus Mock
I did run the SIM, and I didn’t change anything except to check for allowing Daftek’s baseline Grabs and Lockouts. I ran it w/o that checked and it came up with the same result.
Anyhoo, I guess we’ll see what happens. I wish I knew enough to ascertain Kellen’s velocity on the ball and what the NFL needs. Montana didn’t have a strong arm either but I have no idea how Kellen’s arm is in relation. To me, that’s the deciding factor, I think his height can be worked with.
I Wall of Text like it's the in thing to do
"...and just things really starting to unravel now for Utah..." Herbie, BSU vs. Utah, 22 Dec 2010
"his height can be worked with"
Procrustean style? Owwwwie.
"Grateful to the friends and the circumstances that enabled me to be a Bronco. I'm just glad I lived to see these days." SeniorChief
My gut says someone takes him in the 4th.
Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle
The first rule of Lookout Landing is...
I agree,
Maybe KM is not an 10 time all pro starter like I think he will be. But at the very least, he wouldnt want a guy like Kellen to hold a clipboard helping out the starter. A guy like Kellen would be great as the backup, in practice and in the film room. And if the starter does go down, Kellen can at least hold down the fort. He won’t throw picks or do anything stupid.
I would be stunned if every team in the NFL let him slip past the 4th or 5th round.
My favortie memories of college is being up in the student section, taking off my left shoe, and holding it up in the air whenever #89 made a catch.
by warriorsscore110 on Feb 9, 2012 11:26 PM PST up reply actions
i really look forward to see
Where he lands… I like the NFL, but havn’t had a favorite team in a few years… Call me bandwagon, or whatever, I just didn’t like the direction that my childhood teams went… Growing up in the mountian west and not liking John Elway really limited me to the 49ers, my dad’s beloved Browns and the Eagles, for whatever reason… while the niners are coming back into my good graces, I’d be willing to root for whatever team that Kellen went to, even if he was “just” the backup.
I'm thinking he'll end up as a Canadian hero.
Legions of Bills fans in the Toronto area will hail Kellen as the savior of the franchise when he wins at least three Lombardi trophies.
Clippers // Chargers // Rays // Boise State
"The Lakers do win games. But things can change." - Blake Griffin
Im confident Kellen will play pro football.
If it’s the NFL or the CFL it won’t matter. I believe he will have a shot.
Look at Doug Flutie, how tall is he? He’s shorter than Kellen.
Either way any team that takes him will probably have to make adjustments to thier offensive line.
I know it’s not that easy when the team is vested in a bunch of 6-6 or 6-7 guys, with a tall QB thats no problem but with 5-11 QB the O line needs to be 6-3 or 6-4.
Kellen’s got it upstairs and that’s what they want. Just like Coach Pete did they too can make the adjustments to make it work.
Not to many QB’s have the football smarts he has.
One other problem
is Kellen is also not exactly built like a tank. What happens after he repeatedly gets assaulted by 280 lbs DEs or OLBs, or has a 330 pound DT fall on top of him? He definitely avoided sacks like a champ here and was never really injured for more than a play or two, but every NFL QB gets hit by freaks of nature. A lot.
How big do you need to be to where getting fallen on by a 330 lb. DT doesn't hurt?
by Drew Roberts on Feb 10, 2012 12:46 PM PST up reply actions
Heh
Ya, it always hurts. I’m just guessing that there is some doubt whether Moore can survive that given his small size. Is that doubt smart? I have no idea. I personally like to think that Moore would never be sacked at the NFL level either.
But, if he's smaller,
isn’t there less of him to hurt?
Advantage: Kellen.
Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even the dull and the ignorant; they, too, have their story.
Avoid loud and aggressive persons; they are vexations to the spirit.
Someone needs to treat him like the "8 cow" QB he is...
…and draft him high. Believe in the kid to come in and turn your franchise around and he will. Heaven knows there’s not an influx of elite QBs even in the NFL. He’ll be a game changer if you treat him that way. Coach Pete did, and it seemed to work out pretty well for him!
Kellen Will Be Fine
It’s not going to matter when Kellen gets drafted. He has been and underdog, his whole football life. He will get picked by someone, make their roster because of his amazing football I.Q. and work his way to starting status.
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2012 Boise State Football Schedule
@ Michigan State  |
Fri 08/31 | 6:00 p.m. MT |
| Miami (OH) | Sat 09/15 | 2:00 p.m. MT |
| BYU |
Thu 09/20 | TBA |
| @ New Mexico | Sat 09/29 | TBA |
| @ Southern Miss | Sat 10/06 | TBA |
| Fresno State | Sat 10/13 | 1:30 p.m. MT |
| UNLV | Sat 10/20 | 1:30 p.m. MT |
| @ Wyoming |
Sat 10/27 | 1:30 p.m. MT |
| San Diego State | Sat 11/03 | 8:30 p.m. MT |
| @ Hawaii | Sat 11/10 | 5:00 p.m. MT |
| Colorado St. | Sat 11/17 | 1:30 p.m. MT |
| @ Nevada | Sat 12/1 | TBA |
