As a math person I am very interested in figuring the odds on anything. As a BSU fan I am very interested in watching all the games. I always want to see if the Broncos can bust the BC$. Unlike many Boise fans I have never lived in Idaho or went to school at BSU. I was one of many watching the BSU-Oklahoma game. After that game I became a big time BSU fan. I think there are a whole lot of us out there. More than most people think.
This week went well for BSU chances. Everybody lost who needed to and Boise won. Was not perfect but good. A BSU blowout would of helped but not sure if that would have done it.
Lets start with the coaches poll. Boise is loved in the coaches poll. Last week #15. If all things are equal they go to #14 with the Nebraska blowout. Next is the Harris. Last week #16. This week #15. Between those two alone easily enough to secure the BCS Bowl.
There are two things that will keep the above from happening. #1 is the computers. IF BSU could squeak a few points out of them they could be in. This is where it gets sticky. Alot depends on how much Nebraska and UCLA are hurt by the losses. Also if BSU passes idle Michigan. Think that will happen. Considering the above think the odds are not as bad as most think. However the above and #2 will probably keep BSU in the Vegas Bowl. #2 is that SIU will jump us in the BCS standings. Hard to say for sure that they jump us in the Coaches and/or Harris but will will have a huge edge on the computers. From the early poll predictions they will be one notch above us. Thus will get the berth IF they get #16 or better.
Summary: This thing will be extremely close. Closer than most people think. However by the math as far as one can get information IF there is a BCS buster it will probably be SIU. Hope I am wrong but looks like Washington at Vegas.
Final thought: If any other school returned only 6 starters(remember this was the lowest of all 120 FCS schools) they would be barely over .500 with good season. BSU went 10-2 and still almost busted the BCS!!! Congratulations on a great season!!!!