Thanks for all the comments on my last post: "Boise chances to make BCS by the Numbers". I learned a lot from them. Taking those into consideration and more data I have come to the following conclusions:
1) As stated by another "the computers hate us".
2) Michigan is our biggest threat to make it next to impossible to get BCS game.
3)There are at least 12 teams ahead of us today that could be ranked below us when last poll comes out. By attrition/playing each other about 1/2 will be ranked below us. That is if we finish 11-1. By what I have seen recently ALL the 12 teams will lose at least one more game. They all will have a more difficult time even not losing 2 than BSU will have winning out.
Taking the above into consideration what are BSU's chances?
First lets look a the 12 teams. I will summarize their remaining schedules going with the odds. I know there will be upsets but sticking to the numbers/odds. I will then state in my opinion the chance are that we pass them.
1 ORE ST. 2 losses-Stan,Ore plus 3 games that will be difficult. 2 loss we do not pass. 3 plus yes.
2 Georgia 1 loss-Fl. plus 3 not so easy games. Same as Ore St.
3 Miss St. 3 losses-Ala,AM,LSU. 2 not so easy. We pass unless they beat AM
4 Fl St. 1 loss Fl. 3 not so easy. Same as Ore St.
5. So Car. Will not lose but will knock Clemson out. Lose to Clemson SC out.
6. Tex Tech 1 loss Kans St. 2 not so easy. We pass
7. Rutgers Will probably not lose but knock out Louisville. Have 3 toughies Kent,Cinn,Louisville.
8. Louisville lose to Rutgers We pass probably if it goes down like Cinn's Loss.
9. Stanford lose to Oregon. We probably pass. Lose to Ore st. for sure.
10. Clemson lose to SC we pass. Computer hates them as much as us.
11. W Va. will not beat OK. Probably lose 1 or 2 more. We Pass
12. AM schedule will kill them off or they kill off Miss St. We pass them or Miss St. possibly both.
Considering attrition-SOMEONE HAS TO LOSE we lose one PAC 10, one ACC and either Miss or AM. and one Big East. Tex Tech. and W Va. That is six. We need 5. This will put us 14 or better easily in human polls that are 2/3 the BCS. This is considering NO upsets! Look at what Toledo did to Cinn. last week. See my last post.
Computer Problems- This is what will keep us out( besides not winning out) IF we do not make it. We are at 8 right now on the computers (got rid of the decimal stuff). Can not get much lower. Most teams around us are in the 30's or much higher. However as we garner more poll votes from attrition it should overcome it.
Michigan and Mich St problems. Do not think we can get to #12 unless the are a lot of upsets. Trying to go with the numbers/odds. Therefore can not count on upsets. Michigan has 3 really tough games. They will probably lose for sure to OSU for sure or probably Neb or Northwestern. They then have to deal with Big 10 Champ. Do not think they win enough games to be ahead of us at the end. If I am wrong no BCS for BSU odds are. Our loss to MSU is what kills us on the computers among other things like SOS. However as someone said the pollsters forget. Look at Georgia,VaTech ect. MSU can still help us but do not count on it. However if they continue on their trend only computers will remember.
Others: Ohio is climbing but like us has computer problems. Even if they get to MAC champ they will lose to Toledo. Toledo is the most underrated team in the Div I. I think Ohio may lose before MAC but has nothing to do with odds/numbers. Chances are they will not be a problem. Toledo is like BSU was a few years ago. They are real good but no pollster realizes it . Wisconsin and Nebraska could be problems down the line but that remains to be seen.
SUMMARY: If there are no upsets for the rest of the season on the teams above us then we are on the Bubble. Around 50/50 probably below. Guess in that scenario we will need style points big time. Our D is what is keeping us so high in the polls. If we can continue to shut down our opponents as before and if the O comes alive/continues to improve we will have an excellent chance for style points and will climb the rankings. If there are more New Mexico type games we are probably dead even if we win out. Big spankings of SD and NEV will really help. However Odds are there WILL be upsets of the teams above us. Can not count on a single game but in a number of games it is almost a given. I count 29 games for the teams above us that they are favored. I did not count the real "easy" games. They will not go 29-0 in those games. Perhaps 25-4 or slightly worse. If/when that happens our odds go up to better than 50-50. In a way we control our destiny. Win BIG the rest of our games and we are probably in.