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Boise chances to make BCS by the Numbers

I think if BSU wins out they go to BCS Bowl. While you can not predict the outcome or the pollsters it looks good by the math. BSU stands at # 22 right now. That means that they need to 1) win the MWC. 2)Move up 6 slots to get BCS bowl. There are easily 10 teams or more teams that COULD drop below BSU. Probably the biggest problem is Michigan. If they win out then it will be way more difficult but not impossible to get in. If Michigan can jump BSU then it has to be #12 which is alot harder than #16 but NOT impossible. I think Michigan should stumble once more as it still has MSU and Nebraska left.

The way BSU moves up is losses and/or multiple losses for teams ahead of them-simple. Lets look at who will lose at least one maybe more. There are a bunch. 1)The 3 big East teams all play each other so 2 of those will be gone. I think Toledo will beat Cinn this weekend. That will begin the demise if the Big East before they even play each other. If the Big East would somehow implode then no worries about Michigan but do not count on it.2)Stanford will lose one more at least. 3)Texas Tech and AM will probably lose at least 2 because of their rough schedules. 4)Clemson will lose to SC if they do not choke before. 5) Can not see Oregon State losing less than two games probably more. 6)West Virginia will lose at least one more and probably 2 . If they get blown out again like last week Boise will pass them. The total of the above (could make arguments for other teams like SC or Georgia losing at least one more but will leave it as is) is 8 teams. We only need six. So just by the numbers alone it looks good for Boise. A few convincing wins would help too especially against a one loss Nevada.


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