FanPost

How Boise State will Bust the BCS as a 1 loss Non-AQ

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With the initial BCS standings released yesterday Boise State now has a clear(ish) path to make a run at the BCS. BSU has beaten the odds before to crash the BCS. It seems a little ironic that it could be a post-Kellen Boise State team that breaks the final Non-AQ glass ceiling of a 11-1 Non-AQ team crashing the BCS. How will it happen? Well first BSU needs to take care of business and run the table finishing at 11-1 (it wouldn’t hurt to start scoring in the 40’s on a regular basis to give the illusion to national voters that BSU is much better now than they were in East Lansing in week 1). Second, we need help, we need teams to lose and in most cases lose more than once.

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By rule Boise State must be in the MWC Champ and in the top 16 and ahead of a AQ Conference Champion. Usually we would be looking at the Big East but Rutgers, Cincinnati and Louisville are too busy earning Boise State more TV $$$ for next year by having great seasons during the Big East TV contract negotiations. So we look to the Big Ten and ACC.

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First the Big 10. With no team in the current top 10 BSU might feel safe. Not true, if Michigan, Nebraska or Wisconsin win out they will easily pass the Broncos in the polls. However, the chances of any of the three making such a run are slim. Michigan State can actually still beat all three and help our SOS in the process. Bronco fans should also be cheering for Ohio State and Penn State as each still play 2 of the 3 and are both capable of handing any of them a loss in a weak B10.

Now the ACC. The computers despise the ACC and their weak non-conference games. So Florida State and Clemson could both drop behind the Broncos with another loss. The Noles and Tigers play Florida and South Carolina respectively to end the season so another loss there is a probable. Our good friend Virginia Tech could also play spoiler in the upcoming weeks as well as the Hokies play both starting this Saturday.

Notre Dame. No the Irish are not a conference though they may think so. However, this year Bronco Nation should actually cheer FOR the Irish. Sure a BYU win over Notre Dame on Saturday would help our SOS slightly but if the Irish go 10-2 they still make the BCS. So cheer for them to go 12-0 and beat both Oklahoma and USC. Wins over the Sooners and Trojans could perhaps give each of them a 3rd loss and perhaps drop them out of the top 15.

As for the rest of the top 25 here is a quick breakdown of the teams likely to stay ahead of or be passed by the Broncos as well as a couple of bubble teams.

Top 15 Locks:

Alabama, Florida, Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame: Even if they each dropped two games they will remain in the top 15. It is Boise’s best interest for them to all go 12-0 in the regular season.

LSU, South Carolina and Georgia: All have a loss, and all will most likely finish at 11-1 or 10-2. In either case they remain in the top 15.

Oklahoma & USC: Both have some tough teams remaining. If they go 10-2 they are top 15 locks, go 9-3 and they slide to the bubble. Losses to Notre Dame or Oregon won’t drop them much in the eyes of voters.

Teams that will drop:

Oregon State: With games left against Utah, Washington, ASU, Stanford, Cal and Oregon I think 9-3 is very likely and would easily drop the Beavers behind BSU.

Texas Tech: With games left against TCU, Kansas State, OSU and Baylor another loss or two is probable.

Texas A&M: With games left against LSU, Alabama and Miss State two or three losses is possible.

Cincinnati: The Bearcats are probably the only undefeated Big East team that the Broncos can pass with just one loss.

Teams on the top 15 bubble:

Miss State: They have 4 losable games left against LSU, Bama, Texas A&M and Arkansas – ok that’s a stretch but the hogs have talent. If they lose 2 of the 4 they drop.

West Virginia: With games against Kansas State, TCU, OSU and Iowa State left it’s simple. Lose 1 and they probably stay ahead of Boise State. Lose 2 and they drop.

Florida State: The computers do not like the Noles. A loss to Florida to close the season could drop them. A loss to Virginia Tech or anyone else between now and then and BSU jumps them.

Clemson: The computers do not like the Tigers. A loss to South Carolina to close the season could drop them. A loss to Virginia Tech or anyone else between now and then and BSU jumps them.

Rutgers: The computers actually like the Knights. It probably takes two Rutgers losses to drop behind BSU.

Louisville: The computers actually like Louisville. It probably takes two Cardinals losses to drop behind BSU.

What does all this mean? Well for now, it means being able to scoreboard watch just as in years past, with extra rooting interest for some teams to lose and others (MSU, Ohio State, Penn State, VT and Notre Dame) to win. It also means, that beginning about three weeks from now when the Broncos are sitting at #18 that the haters will once again come out in full force. Nothing new for Boise State, the irony is, that this time an 11-1 Boise State team will go BCS Busting - it just won't be led by the winningest QB in college football history.

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This content was not created by OBNUG and therefore may not meet our standards. On the contrary, it probably exceeds them.

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