A still-too-early Boise State bowl projection

Otto Kitsinger III - Getty Images

With the release of the BCS standings and the debut of all the important polls in America, it must be time to start making wildly inaccurate predictions about the postseason. Hey, I'm good at that! Here's proof.

Boise State's most likely bowl scenario

Orange Bowl - Boise State versus Florida State

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If the season continued to play out the way it has over the past seven weeks - with Boise State continuing to beat everyone by 10 to 15 points - the Broncos will find themselves in a BCS bowl, by definition if not merit. That BCS bowl? Probably the Orange one, considering it has the last pick of the BCS bowls and a one-loss non-BCS team will always be the last choice.

The Orange Bowl also features the ACC champion, which at this point in the year looks to be either Clemson or Florida State. The game takes place on New Year's Day for those of you who like to confidently book air travel and hotel based on blog posts.

Other scenarios

Sugar Bowl - Boise State versus SEC/Big 12/Notre Dame

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If, say, Boise State qualifies for the BCS and so does a three-loss Big East champion, the Sugar Bowl may choose the Bronco brand over the Cincinnati albatross.

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl - Boise State versus the fifth choice from the Pac-12

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In all likelihood, if Boise State fails to make the BCS, the Vegas Bowl would be thrilled to welcome the Broncos for the third straight year thanks to Bronco Nation's affinity for travel and spending money in Las Vegas. The Vegas Bowl gets first choice among Mountain West teams, so it could take the Broncos even if BSU doesn't win the conference championship. In-state Nevada and nearby Fresno are other options.

One difference with this year's Vegas Bowl than in past years is that the 2012 version will be played on a Saturday afternoon. So you could see a football game, hit a buffet, and get hypnotized on stage all in the same day.

Poinsettia Bowl - Boise State versus BYU, HAHA just kidding, no one wants to see that again

New Mexico Bowl - Boise State versus seventh choice of Pac-12 team

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The New Mexico Bowl kicks off bowl season at 11 a.m. MT on December 15, just two weeks after Boise State closes the season against Nevada. I would imagine this game would love to have the hometown Lobos get bowl eligible and lose a home bowl game to a Pac-12 team.

Armed Forces Bowl - Boise State versus the third choice from Conference USA

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The last landing spot for a MW team is in Fort Worth on December 29. See below.

End of days scenario

See above.

There are not a lot of good CUSA teams (only three are above .500). The one saving grace of this game is that it is in one of Boise State's recruiting hotbeds.

The BCS, explained

Here are this week's BCS standings along with a highly simplified explanation of what they mean.

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The BCS bowls, if the season ended today

It is way early to be making pronouncements about BCS bowls, but sensibility has never been one of the Internet's strong suits. OBNUG will feature much more well-reasoned BCS discussion later this week, but for now, here are some guesses.

Conference champions and, therefore, fixed picks are in bold (except the Big East champ, which doesn't get guaranteed anywhere).

  • BCS national championship game = Alabama vs. Florida
  • Rose Bowl = Oregon vs. Michigan
  • Sugar Bowl = Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma
  • Fiesta Bowl = Kansas State vs. USC
  • Orange Bowl = Florida State vs. Rutgers

Let's have a playoff!

Playoffs are coming to college football in the barest of minimum forms (four teams, three games). It is progress, but it is still a ways off from ideal. What follows is an NCAA postseason according to my favorite playoff format (16 teams, 11 conference champions, five at-larges, seeds from the AP). Conference champs are in italics, even the Sun Belt one.

  • No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 16 Western Kentucky
  • No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 15 Tulsa
  • No. 3 Florida vs. No. 14 Ohio
  • No. 4 Kansas State vs. No. 13 Louisiana Tech
  • No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 12 Michigan
  • No. 6 LSU vs. No. 11 Boise State
  • No. 7 Oregon State vs. No. 10 Louisville
  • No. 8 South Carolina vs. No. 9 Florida State

Your turn

Where do you want Boise State to end up this bowl season? Where do you not want them to end up? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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