Inside the numbers on Boise State's win over Toledo [BIFFF]

There were many stars (and one Andromeda galaxy quarterback) in Friday night's Bronco win over Toledo, and one of the most surprising ones was Boise State running back Drew Wright. The local Vallivue High prospect carried five times for 29 yards and a touchdown on the Broncos' final drive, bringing back memories of Boise State "closer" Jarvis Hodge. Wright has some weight to gain and a beard to grow, but otherwise, it was a brilliant impersonation.

How good was Wright against Toledo? How about this: His success rate was 100%. Every carry picked up either a first down, a touchdown, or enough yards to set up a second-and-short or third-and-short. Was that Brock Forsey out there or were Mark Johnson's eyes deceiving him?

More advanced stats analysis after the jump. 

What is BIFFF? And does it have anything to do with Back to the FutureDetails here.

The rest of the BIFFF statistics from the Boise State - Toledo game

Success Rate

Success rate by quarter (team)

Q1 // Boise State 35%, Toledo 29%
Q2 // Boise State 52%, Toledo 37%
Q3 // Boise State 48%, Toledo 36%
Q4 // Boise State 58%, Toledo 46%

 

After a first quarter of ups and downs, both teams turned it on in quarters two, three, and four. Boise State just turned it on a whole lot more. Every other play for Boise State was a successful one, and had their timing been a little better (i.e., saving successful plays for third and fourth downs), the final score would have been a lot uglier than 40-15. 

Compared to the Georgia game, the defense failed to maintain its gold standard in stuffing the opposite offense, but a sterling silver standard ain't that bad, either. 

Quarterback success rate

Boise State

Kellen Moore - 25 for 42 (60%)

Toledo

Terrance Owens - 12 for 31 (39%)
Austin Dantin - 3 for 8 (38%)

Want to know the difference in the game? This is it. Kellen Moore was uber-efficient and Austin Terrance Dantin-Owens were less efficient. 

Running back success rate

Boise State

Doug Martin - 7 for 19 (37%)
D.J. Harper - 3 for 7 (43%)

Toledo

Adonis Thomas - 8 for 14 (57%)

Martin had a better game Friday night than he did in the opener against Georgia, although I think fans (like me) expect him to be successful on every single carry regardless of how many defenders are in the backfield with him. 

Note the high success rate for Adonis Thomas. Credit goes to Thomas for being squirmy and to Boise State's tackling for being highly suspect. Either way, I'll be happy never to see Thomas again.

Wide receiver success rate

Boise State

Mitch Burroughs - 5 for 6 (83%)
Matt Miller - 6 for 6 (100%)
Doug Martin - 3 for 5 (60%)
Tyler Shoemaker - 3 for 4 (75%)
Kirby Moore - 3 for 4 (75%)

Toledo

Bernard Reedy - 3 for 4 (75%)
Eric Page - 5 6 for 8 (75%)

Receiver success rate accounts for catches and not targets, which is how Miller can be a perfect 6-for-6 despite having one of the team's two drops. Since receivers are supposed to average 8+ yards per reception, you would expect their success rates to be high. Still, I think holding Eric Page to five  six successes all game is a big win for the Bronco D.

Successful plays are defined as plays that gain 50 percent of needed yards on first down, 70 percent of needed yards on second down, and 100 percent of needed yards on third and fourth downs.

Stops

Defensive line stops

Tyler Horn - 2.5
Tyrone Crawford - 2
Shea McClellin - 2
Jarrell Root - 2
Chase Baker - 2
Billy Winn - 2
Greg Grimes - 1

Linebacker stops

Aaron Tevis - 2
Byron Hout - 0.5
J.C. Percy - 0.5

Secondary stops

Cedric Febis - 4
Jerrell Gavins - 4
George Iloka - 1
Jamar Taylor - 1

Cedric Febis, everybody! Boy, it sure was good to have him back. 

The Bronco defensive line came out looking a lot better in these stats than it seemed they would have. They had a relatively quiet night for being them. I felt Tyrone Crawford was the most disruptive lineman. Tyler Horn earned the most stops, but one came on a garbage time sack.

Stops are defined as plays that prevent a successful play by the offense.

Line Yards

Boise State - 115 yards, 38 attempts, 3.0 average
Toledo - 73 yards, 28 attempts, 2.6 average

The Broncos averaged 2.4 line yards per carry against Georgia, so the Bronco running game was vastly improved. Not sure if that came across on the TV or not.

Line yards measure the effectiveness of offensive line play by assigning value to rushing yards gained near the line of scrimmage. View the complete formula.

Swing Points and Wasted Yards

Swing points

Boise State - 0
Toledo - 0

Wasted yards

Boise State - 203
Toledo - 178

Boise State is two-for-two on stopping world-class return men from breaking long returns for scores. And still, we wait for the first Bronco defensive touchdown of the year. My money is on Michael Atkinson picking off a screen pass and rumbling for a TD. What can I say? I like fat guy touchdowns.

Swing points account for points scored on defense, special teams, or drives of 25 yards or less. Wasted yards are the yards gained on non-scoring drives.

 

Field Position Percentage

Boise State - 56%

Toledo - 34%

The Broncos had virtually the same field position percentage against Toledo that they had against Georgia. So from here on out, I guess teams should just plan on Boise State having the ball in their territory half the time.

Field Position Percentage shows the percentage of a team's plays that took place on their opponent's side of the field. The higher the number, the better. Good teams have over 40 percent. Great teams get over 50 percent.

Special Teams Rating

Boise State - (-2) 
Toledo - (-2)

It was a rough night for special teams. You probably didn't need advanced stats to tell you that.

The special teams rating is based on a points formula where each special team occurrence is weighed and valued for factors like points, field position, and more. View the full explanation and check out its origins.

Additional reading ...

In addition to these statistics, BIFFF documents a wide range of play-by-play and game charting data for a comprehensive look at Boise State football games. In other words, nerd alert! To find out more, visit the BIFFF homepage or peruse the BIFFF archived spreadsheets on Google Docs.

Your turn

Feel better about the Toledo game having seen these stats? Think Drew Wright is destined for fan favorite status? Still expecting Doug Martin to have successful carries every single time he touches the ball? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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