Why the 2011 season may be Boise State's best chance at a BCS title for quite some time
Hello. To pass the time between now and August, OBNUG will be writing essays about football things. Many of these essays will be true. Some may be fan fiction and involve Blizzards. Here is an essay now.
I don't mean to alarm you, but there is reason to believe that this season may be Boise State's last, best chance at crashing the BCS title game for the foreseeable future.
Now, I know what you're thinking. No way Jose. Boise State will be good forever, and you, Kevan Lee, are a boob. I couldn't agree more. But at the same time, there have always been those people who believe hard times will come to Boise State sooner or later, and there is more than a little evidence to think that "sooner" could be the 2012 season.
Why so hasty in my end-of-days proclamation? Well, have you looked closely at Boise State's roster for next year?
Incredibly, the Broncos will undergo almost a complete team turnover from the 2010 team that was preseason Top 5 to the 2012 team that will take the field next fall. There will be only two starters from the 2010 team still around in 2012 - CB Jamar Taylor and OG Joe Kellogg. Have you been mentally preparing for Joe Kellogg banners hanging from Bronco Stadium on your 2012 commute? I know I haven't.
Here is the breakdown of depth charts:
| Pos | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Kellen Moore | Kellen Moore | Joe Southwick |
| RB | Doug Martin | Doug Martin | D.J. Harper |
| FB | Dan Paul | Dan Paul | Chandler Koch |
| WR | Austin Pettis | Kirby Moore | Kirby Moore |
| WR | Titus Young | Geraldo Hiwat | Geraldo Hiwat |
| WR | Tyler Shoemaker | Tyler Shoemaker | Aaron Burks |
| TE | Tommy Gallarda | Kyle Efaw | Gabe Linehan |
| OT | Matt Slater | Charles Leno | Charles Leno |
| OG | Will Lawrence | Jake Broyles | Jake Broyles |
| C | Thomas Byrd | Thomas Byrd | Matt Paradis |
| OG | Joe Kellogg | Joe Kellogg | Joe Kellogg |
| OT | Nate Potter | Nate Potter | Brenel Myers |
| Pos | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
| DE | Ryan Winterswyk | Tyrone Crawford | Tyler Horn |
| DE | Shea McClellin | Shea McClellin | Kharyee Marshall |
| DT | Billy Winn | Billy Winn | Michael Atkinson |
| DT | Chase Baker | Chase Baker | Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe |
| LB | Byron Hout | Byron Hout | Tommy Smith |
| LB | Aaron Tevis | Aaron Tevis | J.C. Percy |
| CB | Brandyn Thompson | Jerrell Gavins | Ebo Makinde |
| CB | Jamar Taylor | Jamar Taylor | Jamar Taylor |
| NB | Winston Venable | Hunter White | Dextrell Simmons |
| SS | Jeron Johnson | Cedric Febis | Jeremy Ioane |
| FS | George Iloka | George Iloka | Quaylon Ewing |
To take it one step further, the starting lineup for 2010 was basically the exact same as the lineup in 2009, minus Kyle Wilson. Translation: Boise State has had the same guys starting at the same positions for three-plus years. And in 2012, someone presses the reset button.
So what does it all mean?
Meaning No. 1: Rebuilding
False. The Broncos don't rebuild, they reload.
If you believe that the Broncos will simply reload over and over again with talented teams, then the roster exodus is probably not that big of a deal. Certainly there is reason to suspect that Boise State can reload based on their sustained success for the past decade and the fact that they continue to recruit better and better players. This is not the 2007 Hawaii team we are talking about. You cannot get rid of Boise State that easily.
Meaning No. 2: The end of an era
At the same time, Bronco fans should recognize that this season will be the end of a truly special era in Bronco football. Boise State has fielded one of its greatest teams of all times, essentially, for three consecutive years. That doesn't happen, and it isn't likely to happen this way ever again.
Meaning No. 3: The all-or-nothing season
I am not entirely sold on this premise yet, but here goes: Boise State needs to win this year because they will not have the same preseason rankings and hype and opportunity once the roster turnover is complete. Also, they may not have as good a team in 2012 as they will in 2011 with so many new faces in starting roles, including a new quarterback and entirely new defensive line. Expect Harris Poll voters to forget they exist, in other words.
Overall, the impact of Boise State's roster turnover really remains to be seen. The fact of losing 20 of 22 starters over two years is undeniable, but what to make of the aftermath? Will the Broncos find themselves in the Top 25 as easily after everyone is gone? Will the team continue its success with a brand new crop of players? I know some outsiders would like to think that the Bronco empire will take a siesta following the 2011 season, but we Bronco fans know better.
Boise State football is always good. It's just that in 2012, no one knows the details yet.
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I don't agree with all of your projected starters Kevan....
But your point is still valid. It’s a little scary.
me too. Not a happy feeling, for him. Gotta trust the coaches, though.
If you don't like something, change it. If you can't change it, change the way you think about it. Maya Angelou
BSU changes the BCS! 2011
I agree
I think Nick Patti will step up and pass Southwick. Boise State historically starts younger QB’s.
Completely random question, what is B.J. Rhode up to?
by Bring the HAMMER! on Jun 2, 2011 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Like others here I have a feeling Hedrick will beat out Southwick. And as much as I’d love to see Harper get two good seasons out of that knee I just don’t see it happening – I expect Ajayi will be the guy in 2012.
by nerdglasses on Jun 2, 2011 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Dear Lord, please send us a miracle
It will be interesting to see what happens in 2012. Although it is scary, there is something riveting about the unknown. I think most fans tend to have realistic expectations and the 2012 goal will most likely be the MWC championship as an undefeated season will be unlikely.
"Gandhi didn't take a knee, Martin Luther King didn't take a knee, Thomas Edison didn't take a knee, and I sure as hell am not going to take a knee." -- Dan Hawkins
Why Kevin why?
Ignorance is bliss. I would prefer to stick my head in the sand and just assume Kellen will come back under an assumed name with a moustache maybe a goatee. Know would be the wiser he would throw right handed they would never figure it out.
I'm the 12 th man its my job its my duty.
by Dothework on Jun 2, 2011 9:02 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Kellen can't grow facial hair on account of his recessive Bieber gene
by Drew Roberts on Jun 2, 2011 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions 6 recs
Im certain the Bieber gene is a dominant gene, as evidenced by the hair.
Our quarterback goes to 11 !
DREW, WE HAVE DISCUSSED THE (BW)ING bieber THING ON HERE BEFORE...
THAT IS A NO NO, AN INSULT TO OUR DORK ASSASSIN, AND COULD BRING BAD JU JU AND SO FORTH (Ok, maybe it was the voices in my head but still….:)
"Boise State football is now a Fargo winter. You know what's coming, and that information does you no good whatsoever". Matt James / The Fresno Bee
Valid points all around, Kevan
The one aspect you haven’t mentioned which is still worth bearing in mind: coaching staff. Players necessarily come and go but a solid coaching staff that stays essentially intact cannot be overlooked.
At least that’s what I’ll be repeating to myself this time next year as I shed salty tears of angst on my pillow each night.
You cannot reason a man out of something he didn't reason himself into in the first place.
by kcam on Jun 2, 2011 9:36 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
I will rec that
Coaching staff is a huge part of the reload/rebuild debate. So long as Pete and Co. are in town, there will be no need to rebuild.
"I did not send you to go-kart camp." - Maury Garner
by Kevan Lee on Jun 2, 2011 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Glad you're rec'ing the comment about the coaches
And not my potentially lachrymose state a year from now. You were rec’ing the coaches, right.
You cannot reason a man out of something he didn't reason himself into in the first place.
Thanks, bobink
You cannot reason a man out of something he didn't reason himself into in the first place.
I am really not that concerned.
We have been thru transition periods before. What’s the worst case scenario? We finish 10-2 win the Mountain West and still go to a non-humanitarian bowl? Doesn’t sound too bad to me. The ‘07 Tharp season was still respectable by most people’s standards.
Just be glad you are not a Vandal fan.
Then you would really be up (slang term meaning fecal matter) creek without a paddle, or a boat, and no life jacket.
Self awareness
I’m a firm believer that the coaching staff is fully aware of the situation that you point out. I, as much as anyone, disliked weekly ritual of pulling starters in the 3rd quarter that happened last year. However, this year, I will be more understandable of the situation since we have to provide more experience to the future starters.
While I would really like KM to put up outstanding stats on his run to the Heisman, I feel it is for the better of the team to allow Southwick & Hedrick to get some reps with first string. As much as I would like to see DM destroy defensive lines, Harper & Co has to get their share of carries. And oh how much I would love to shut out so many teams this year, Bacon, T-A-T, and the crew need to gain experience from start to finish.
I’d like to be in a situation where many 2012 preseason voters say stuff like, “Although Boise State loses many senior starters, the players that will be replacing them have a ton of game experience to carry the torch”. If we end up in the Top 25, then the teams impressive play will carry us back into the Top 10 as voters become more comfortable with the fact that we have reloaded.
Let’s support and not criticize the coaching staff this year if/when we see starters come out of the game early. We’ll be thankful for it come 2012.
by TDown on Jun 2, 2011 10:19 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I realize we're in the slow season
but I’m willing to take one season at a time. Many of the current unknowns will be well known by next January. Right now I I’m not hung up on making the NCS game, but making a BCS bowl game—yes! I really wanted to go to the Rose Bowl last season.
by nothingveryclever on Jun 2, 2011 10:25 AM PDT reply actions
I fully agree
I see no reason for you guys to really give a serious F about the “mythical” NCS game.
Good coaches always want to (a) win their games and (b) win their conference. Do you see that changing? That is the definition of “controlling what you can control.” Other than that, the rest of the stuff is all talking points and the whipped cream with the cherry on a blizzard.
I do agree the goal is a non-Fiesta BCS bowl. The Rose last year, this year the Sugar (ideally). Personally, I think BSU will be the first 11-1 non-AQ at large, but not this year (unlike Lindy and a few other preview guides).
I'd rather be surfing.
by Pac 10 Alum on Jun 2, 2011 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Doubt It
I imagine Sam Ukwuachu,Blake Renaud, Jeff Worthy, Matt Miller and even Marcus Rios if he sticks would disagree with your starters for 2012.
by Power of the Blue on Jun 2, 2011 10:39 AM PDT reply actions
Very true
My projections are based more on basic advancing of the depth chart rather than who might come out in and tear things up. All the guys you mentioned are definitely capable of playing/starting in ’12.
"I did not send you to go-kart camp." - Maury Garner
Too many unknowns
Good points Kevin- but Boise does reload quite well especially when you compare our recruits to our conference mates. It is just too difficult to predict how these kids will perform and improve as they become men. We all thought “Who is going to fill the shoes of Ian Johnson?” (l- I’ll take Doug Martin anyday). How do you replace Darren College or Ryan Clady? (Nate Potter has turned out pretty well). How do you replace Marty Tadman and Gerald Alexander. (Jeron and George are a pretty good pair.) Remember when we thought that we would have a nice rebuilding year, but good experience for our freshman quarterback Kellen Moore- we had never won an away game at a BCS opponent until Kellen set foot in Autzen. Now we are saying how do we replace Austin and Titus- well I am just going to trust that someone will step up and we haven’t left the cupboard bare- Kirby, Tyler, and the Burroughs may surprise us. After Kellen- is it possible we will be just as fantastic with a Grant, or Joe under center? It’s hard to imagine, but its possible because the leadership in the coaches office hasn’t changed through the changes on the field.
Our quarterback goes to 11 !
Miller Time?
Most are looking past Matt Miller. He had a serious injury but before that I thought of him as 1 of 3 prize recruits from the 2010 class.
by Power of the Blue on Jun 2, 2011 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions
UUgh, so this is what the Mayans were predicting about the world ending.
by DanThePro on Jun 2, 2011 11:31 AM PDT reply actions 7 recs
As a Boise State fan of 43 years, I wish to comment.
- CRITICAL ELEMENTS: 2 areas of initial focus for me are the offensive line and the DTs. In ’12, we will still have an experienced O-line and the DTs will be 2 highly experienced, talented players.
- Boise State has, always, good to excellent college QBs and WRs.
- Nearly every year there are worries. An odd confluence has been in effect 3 of the last 4 or so; it seems we have had unusual contimuity. But that has historically been the exception.
- Recruiting trend: Upward and rising.
SYNTHESIS: May be dip, but no valley. Expect top level performance near to midterm.
tvmunson
by tmunson on Jun 2, 2011 11:59 AM PDT reply actions 3 recs
This is blasphemy!
You should not question the abilities of the almighty Chris Petersen. In all seriousness, the only question I have is who is going to replace the safeties. Also, don’t expect another Kellen Moore any time soon. It is very difficult to recruit a player of that caliber.
by wetter67 on Jun 2, 2011 12:02 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Meaning No. 2: The end of an era
? I dk about this statement. I mean granted the Broncos have fielded an incredible team the past couple years. BUT and a BIG BUT @ that, is the fact of the Broncos awesome recruiting. It seems atleast to me the Broncos have stepped it up a notch in the recruiting field and are actually anymore getting 4star recruits which 10 years ago they weren’t even touching that kind of talent. I mean I have been a fan for only about 13 years now but in this time I have seen the Broncos mature from a everyday football team that you just barely find on espn scorebox to a football factory that you find everywhere now. I mean the Broncos are becoming a household name especially after the 2005-06 fiesta bowl win over the sooners. I am starting to see a pattern here with the more publicity the Broncos get the obvious occurs where recruits start paying more attention to not only the school but the coaching staff and the prior results that are shown on the field, and most of the time are a HUGE + when the Broncos are tearing it up every year. Thats just my 2 cents tho _
GO BRONCOS!
Life's Greatest Question.... "Why do they sell hot dogs in packs of 12 but buns in packs of 8?"
by BoiseFanSince98 on Jun 2, 2011 12:05 PM PDT reply actions
"hard times": (def.) for most programs, a 4-7 season; due to the ridiculously high expecations of the
Boise State fans, a 10-2 one.
tvmunson
by tmunson on Jun 2, 2011 12:18 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
"Boise State fans": (def.) refers to those who have been associated with the program for less than 2 decades and thus have no
perspective
tvmunson
"tmunson": (def.) a senile and amlevolent old codger with (apparently) limitless time and (apparenlty)limitless energy
to harangue the younger readership to (apparently) no effect , doing so with(obviously) no talent but who(manifestly) does not give a (bw)
tvmunson
"munson'd': (def.1)a misspelled word ex. malevolent (def.2) poor grammar, sytnatx, or just inanity on a cosmic scale (see above)
tvmunson
I'd be willing to forgive all of the above transgressions
If you’ll just work the word weltanshauung into one of your magnum opera. (You did know opera is the plural of opus, didn’t you?)
You cannot reason a man out of something he didn't reason himself into in the first place.
by kcam on Jun 2, 2011 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Opera plural of opus? No didn't know that .
Latin conjugation would go us, i, o um o is orum is os is. Gotta’ goog’e welthe(bw)
tvmunson
"worldview"-good word, typical of Krauts
am familiar with it from the book “A Confederacy of Dunces”, the posthumously published best seller. The main character waxes eloquently on his own and compares it to the narrow and “blighted” ones of his various antagonsits. It’ll be a snap. I got a GAZETTA forming now, no debris yet but light hail and rain.
tvmunson
BTW my own weltanshauung is The Munsonian Dialectic-I have been preparing the readership for its introduction
tvmunson
Why am I not surprised?
You cannot reason a man out of something he didn't reason himself into in the first place.
by kcam on Jun 2, 2011 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
singularly? what am I? chopped ham? potted palm?
My weltanshauung is peace will come in our time, and if not, enjoy your schadenfreude.
If you don't like something, change it. If you can't change it, change the way you think about it. Maya Angelou
BSU changes the BCS! 2011
by boiseblues on Jun 2, 2011 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Your weltanshauung is my zeitgeist
You cannot reason a man out of something he didn't reason himself into in the first place.
are we going to be called out for noun-dropping?
If you don't like something, change it. If you can't change it, change the way you think about it. Maya Angelou
BSU changes the BCS! 2011
SHAMELESS noun-dropping!
You cannot reason a man out of something he didn't reason himself into in the first place.
*blush* aw gee. thx. :)
eager for the next Gazetta…why aren’t you posting it?
still working on your updraft, I guess.
If you don't like something, change it. If you can't change it, change the way you think about it. Maya Angelou
BSU changes the BCS! 2011
by boiseblues on Jun 2, 2011 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Are we talkin about 'large' men in tights hollerin at folks in a dead language?
Been to a few, to each their own.
"Boise State football is now a Fargo winter. You know what's coming, and that information does you no good whatsoever". Matt James / The Fresno Bee
A perfect description of the frwnch!
Are we talkin about ‘large’ men in tights hollerin at folks in a dead language?
You don’t mind if I use that?
it's not that you are stupid, it's just that you don't suspect!
Nothing is good nor bad until compared to something else.
by Darth Prophet on Jun 3, 2011 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Feel free.
"Boise State football is now a Fargo winter. You know what's coming, and that information does you no good whatsoever". Matt James / The Fresno Bee
2012 is where we find out
How Blue is your Blood, it’s one thing for Kellen to come in, in 08 like he did it’s a whole other thing to have 18 guys step up….
Boise State has had the same guys starting at the same positions for three-plus years
This is also why I believe this team will be much better then last years team the core is very large and been playing with each other a long long time.
Dominate.
it's not that you are stupid, it's just that you don't suspect!
Nothing is good nor bad until compared to something else.
by Darth Prophet on Jun 2, 2011 1:06 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
I was saying early last season
that the way Pete is managing his players, the next years (2011) team could probably repeat a MNC run if this team (2010) could do it first.
I was wrong, we had that game that never was, happen.
So, that leaves this years team to get the job done.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that next years team (2012) as a follow up to a possible MNC contender this year, could possibly get enough momentum and following to push them to another possible run at it again.
This has GOT to produce better and better recruits to this winning lifestyle. History is behind us on this. I think I don’t want to be like Sisyphus and let that stone roll back! It took this program all these years to push that “rock” up the media hill.
Maybe I could write a song about that…
let’s rock
and not let it…
roll back.
Never worry about things you have no control over
Pete has control and I have faith in Pete.
The best thing about the end of an era is the beginning of a new one.
BSU don't need smoke and mirrors to get the job done, they got orange pants.
by Belexes on Jun 2, 2011 2:05 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
rec'd and thanks for the pep talk!
If you don't like something, change it. If you can't change it, change the way you think about it. Maya Angelou
BSU changes the BCS! 2011
Rec'd
"Boise State football is now a Fargo winter. You know what's coming, and that information does you no good whatsoever". Matt James / The Fresno Bee
I don't know why you fear
This past recruiting class ranked second in BSU history and we have all seen what the number one recruiting class has done. The new era of BSU recruits is starting and the commits are so much better than they use to be. Our coaching staff will have them playing at a higher level. BSU will keep recruiting better players and will maintain there fame to dominance. Have no fear for Pete is here!!!!!!
by Aaron Remington on Jun 2, 2011 2:30 PM PDT reply actions 4 recs
and to you...rec'd and thanks for the pep talk II
If you don't like something, change it. If you can't change it, change the way you think about it. Maya Angelou
BSU changes the BCS! 2011
If it was all about recruiting
The top 25 finish would like the top 25 rank recruiting list, but it never does ;)
I’m not worried a bit I’m excited, new challenges new face there will be tons of drama and the media will be all over us like the last year and this. Nope it’s all about the tone set by the coaches.
We had our slip last year, I’m looking for shock an awe in the years to follow.
it's not that you are stupid, it's just that you don't suspect!
Nothing is good nor bad until compared to something else.
by Darth Prophet on Jun 2, 2011 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
don't forget to enjoy it
I don’t blame fans for having some anxiety about the next several seasons. There is no question we’ve been blessed with some of the best teams in the history of the program.
But while we ponder this, it occurs to me we’re blessed every season—blessed and privileged to watch these young men proudly wear the blue and put on a great show every game. It’s crazy how invested we become, not just in the games, but in each new player who comes through here. We root for these kids, get to know them a bit either through media snippets or simply their play on the field, then in a figurative sense, we adopt them and think of them as our own kids.
And after four or five years, we’re required to let them leave the nest. But the next crop comes aboard and we start that process over—and that process has its own brand of excitement.
OK… enough schmaltz. The point I’m making here is while you’re obsessing over what the future holds, don’t forget to enjoy these moments as they happen because as we all know, they are fleeting. Like I said, we only get to adopt these kids for four or five years at a time.
Bronco Nation forever, baby!
by TJofCHITOWN on Jun 2, 2011 6:48 PM PDT reply actions 6 recs
True True.
I will be honest. When I was at Senior Night 2010 on the Blue, it was hard to not get a little emotional when Austin Pettis and Titus Young got called out.
But pretty soon, a new batch of kids will join the bronco family. It’s a happy eternal cycle. (yes, there is bronco football in the afterlife… i think the mayans said something about that too).
by WildCard1989 on Jun 5, 2011 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Well said
And after four or five years, we’re required to let them leave the nest.
I have been associated in many different ways with the BSU programs since 1960.
What I have found through having several ex-football players as close friends, although they are all from various places in the states, they don’t think of Boise as a “nest”. They end up living here and raising families and bringing other family members to the area. They feel Boise is their “home”.
And, damn it…I’m proud they feel that way!
That is excellent news! I had know idea any stayed, beyond those players that were local to start with.
If you don't like something, change it. If you can't change it, change the way you think about it. Maya Angelou
BSU changes the BCS! 2011

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