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Why the 2011 season may be Boise State's best chance at a BCS title for quite some time

LAS VEGAS NV - DECEMBER 22:  Quarterback Kellen Moore #11 of the Boise State Broncos warms up before playing against the Utah Utes in the MAACO Bowl Las Vegas at Sam Boyd Stadium December 22 2010 in Las Vegas Nevada. Boise State Won 26-3.  (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Hello. To pass the time between now and August, OBNUG will be writing essays about football things. Many of these essays will be true. Some may be fan fiction and involve Blizzards. Here is an essay now.

I don't mean to alarm you, but there is reason to believe that this season may be Boise State's last, best chance at crashing the BCS title game for the foreseeable future. 

Now, I know what you're thinking. No way Jose. Boise State will be good forever, and you, Kevan Lee, are a boob. I couldn't agree more. But at the same time, there have always been those people who believe hard times will come to Boise State sooner or later, and there is more than a little evidence to think that "sooner" could be the 2012 season. 

Star-divide

Why so hasty in my end-of-days proclamation? Well, have you looked closely at Boise State's roster for next year? 

Incredibly, the Broncos will undergo almost a complete team turnover from the 2010 team that was preseason Top 5 to the 2012 team that will take the field next fall. There will be only two starters from the 2010 team still around in 2012 - CB Jamar Taylor and OG Joe Kellogg. Have you been mentally preparing for Joe Kellogg banners hanging from Bronco Stadium on your 2012 commute? I know I haven't.

Here is the breakdown of depth charts:

Pos201020112012
QB Kellen Moore Kellen Moore Joe Southwick
RB Doug Martin Doug Martin D.J. Harper
FB Dan Paul Dan Paul Chandler Koch
WR Austin Pettis Kirby Moore Kirby Moore
WR Titus Young Geraldo Hiwat Geraldo Hiwat
WR Tyler Shoemaker Tyler Shoemaker Aaron Burks
TE Tommy Gallarda Kyle Efaw Gabe Linehan
OT Matt Slater Charles Leno Charles Leno
OG Will Lawrence Jake Broyles Jake Broyles
C Thomas Byrd Thomas Byrd Matt Paradis
OG Joe Kellogg Joe Kellogg  Joe Kellogg
OT Nate Potter Nate Potter  Brenel Myers
Pos 2010 2011 2012
DE Ryan Winterswyk Tyrone Crawford  Tyler Horn
DE Shea McClellin Shea McClellin  Kharyee Marshall
DT Billy Winn Billy Winn  Michael Atkinson
DT Chase Baker Chase Baker  Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe
LB Byron Hout Byron Hout  Tommy Smith
LB Aaron Tevis Aaron Tevis  J.C. Percy
CB Brandyn Thompson  Jerrell Gavins  Ebo Makinde
CB Jamar Taylor Jamar Taylor Jamar Taylor
NB Winston Venable  Hunter White Dextrell Simmons 
SS Jeron Johnson  Cedric Febis Jeremy Ioane 
FS George Iloka George Iloka Quaylon Ewing

To take it one step further, the starting lineup for 2010 was basically the exact same as the lineup in 2009, minus Kyle Wilson. Translation: Boise State has had the same guys starting at the same positions for three-plus years. And in 2012, someone presses the reset button. 

So what does it all mean?

Meaning No. 1: Rebuilding

False. The Broncos don't rebuild, they reload.

Tumblr_lm5bibrgil1qid57mo1_500_medium

If you believe that the Broncos will simply reload over and over again with talented teams, then the roster exodus is probably not that big of a deal. Certainly there is reason to suspect that Boise State can reload based on their sustained success for the past decade and the fact that they continue to recruit better and better players. This is not the 2007 Hawaii team we are talking about. You cannot get rid of Boise State that easily.

Meaning No. 2: The end of an era

At the same time, Bronco fans should recognize that this season will be the end of a truly special era in Bronco football. Boise State has fielded one of its greatest teams of all times, essentially, for three consecutive years. That doesn't happen, and it isn't likely to happen this way ever again. 

Meaning No. 3: The all-or-nothing season

I am not entirely sold on this premise yet, but here goes: Boise State needs to win this year because they will not have the same preseason rankings and hype and opportunity once the roster turnover is complete. Also, they may not have as good a team in 2012 as they will in 2011 with so many new faces in starting roles, including a new quarterback and entirely new defensive line. Expect Harris Poll voters to forget they exist, in other words.

Overall, the impact of Boise State's roster turnover really remains to be seen. The fact of losing 20 of 22 starters over two years is undeniable, but what to make of the aftermath? Will the Broncos find themselves in the Top 25 as easily after everyone is gone? Will the team continue its success with a brand new crop of players? I know some outsiders would like to think that the Bronco empire will take a siesta following the 2011 season, but we Bronco fans know better.

Boise State football is always good. It's just that in 2012, no one knows the details yet.

Comment 74 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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Just curious ...

… who are your starters?

"I did not send you to go-kart camp." - Maury Garner

by Kevan Lee on Jun 2, 2011 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

I keep getting the feeling

that someone other than Southwick will get the starting job at QB.

by daddy18 on Jun 2, 2011 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

me too. Not a happy feeling, for him. Gotta trust the coaches, though.

If you don't like something, change it. If you can't change it, change the way you think about it. Maya Angelou
BSU changes the BCS! 2011

by boiseblues on Jun 2, 2011 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree

I think Nick Patti will step up and pass Southwick. Boise State historically starts younger QB’s.

Completely random question, what is B.J. Rhode up to?

by Bring the HAMMER! on Jun 2, 2011 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Like others here I have a feeling Hedrick will beat out Southwick. And as much as I’d love to see Harper get two good seasons out of that knee I just don’t see it happening – I expect Ajayi will be the guy in 2012.

by nerdglasses on Jun 2, 2011 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Dear Lord, please send us a miracle

It will be interesting to see what happens in 2012. Although it is scary, there is something riveting about the unknown. I think most fans tend to have realistic expectations and the 2012 goal will most likely be the MWC championship as an undefeated season will be unlikely.

"Gandhi didn't take a knee, Martin Luther King didn't take a knee, Thomas Edison didn't take a knee, and I sure as hell am not going to take a knee." -- Dan Hawkins

by smurfturfer on Jun 2, 2011 8:55 AM PDT reply actions  

Why Kevin why?

Ignorance is bliss. I would prefer to stick my head in the sand and just assume Kellen will come back under an assumed name with a moustache maybe a goatee. Know would be the wiser he would throw right handed they would never figure it out.

I'm the 12 th man its my job its my duty.

by Dothework on Jun 2, 2011 9:02 AM PDT via mobile reply actions  

no one

I'm the 12 th man its my job its my duty.

by Dothework on Jun 2, 2011 9:03 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

DREW, WE HAVE DISCUSSED THE (BW)ING bieber THING ON HERE BEFORE...

THAT IS A NO NO, AN INSULT TO OUR DORK ASSASSIN, AND COULD BRING BAD JU JU AND SO FORTH (Ok, maybe it was the voices in my head but still….:)

"Boise State football is now a Fargo winter. You know what's coming, and that information does you no good whatsoever". Matt James / The Fresno Bee

by blue4areason on Jun 2, 2011 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Valid points all around, Kevan

The one aspect you haven’t mentioned which is still worth bearing in mind: coaching staff. Players necessarily come and go but a solid coaching staff that stays essentially intact cannot be overlooked.

At least that’s what I’ll be repeating to myself this time next year as I shed salty tears of angst on my pillow each night.

You cannot reason a man out of something he didn't reason himself into in the first place.

by kcam on Jun 2, 2011 9:36 AM PDT reply actions   2 recs

I will rec that

Coaching staff is a huge part of the reload/rebuild debate. So long as Pete and Co. are in town, there will be no need to rebuild.

"I did not send you to go-kart camp." - Maury Garner

by Kevan Lee on Jun 2, 2011 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Glad you're rec'ing the comment about the coaches

And not my potentially lachrymose state a year from now. You were rec’ing the coaches, right.

You cannot reason a man out of something he didn't reason himself into in the first place.

by kcam on Jun 2, 2011 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Right??

You cannot reason a man out of something he didn't reason himself into in the first place.

by kcam on Jun 2, 2011 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks, bobink

You cannot reason a man out of something he didn't reason himself into in the first place.

by kcam on Jun 3, 2011 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

I am really not that concerned.

We have been thru transition periods before. What’s the worst case scenario? We finish 10-2 win the Mountain West and still go to a non-humanitarian bowl? Doesn’t sound too bad to me. The ‘07 Tharp season was still respectable by most people’s standards.

by Acash1983 on Jun 2, 2011 9:41 AM PDT reply actions  

Just be glad you are not a Vandal fan.

Then you would really be up (slang term meaning fecal matter) creek without a paddle, or a boat, and no life jacket.

by Acash1983 on Jun 2, 2011 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Self awareness

I’m a firm believer that the coaching staff is fully aware of the situation that you point out. I, as much as anyone, disliked weekly ritual of pulling starters in the 3rd quarter that happened last year. However, this year, I will be more understandable of the situation since we have to provide more experience to the future starters.

While I would really like KM to put up outstanding stats on his run to the Heisman, I feel it is for the better of the team to allow Southwick & Hedrick to get some reps with first string. As much as I would like to see DM destroy defensive lines, Harper & Co has to get their share of carries. And oh how much I would love to shut out so many teams this year, Bacon, T-A-T, and the crew need to gain experience from start to finish.

I’d like to be in a situation where many 2012 preseason voters say stuff like, “Although Boise State loses many senior starters, the players that will be replacing them have a ton of game experience to carry the torch”. If we end up in the Top 25, then the teams impressive play will carry us back into the Top 10 as voters become more comfortable with the fact that we have reloaded.

Let’s support and not criticize the coaching staff this year if/when we see starters come out of the game early. We’ll be thankful for it come 2012.

by TDown on Jun 2, 2011 10:19 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

I realize we're in the slow season

but I’m willing to take one season at a time. Many of the current unknowns will be well known by next January. Right now I I’m not hung up on making the NCS game, but making a BCS bowl game—yes! I really wanted to go to the Rose Bowl last season.

by nothingveryclever on Jun 2, 2011 10:25 AM PDT reply actions  

I fully agree

I see no reason for you guys to really give a serious F about the “mythical” NCS game.

Good coaches always want to (a) win their games and (b) win their conference. Do you see that changing? That is the definition of “controlling what you can control.” Other than that, the rest of the stuff is all talking points and the whipped cream with the cherry on a blizzard.

I do agree the goal is a non-Fiesta BCS bowl. The Rose last year, this year the Sugar (ideally). Personally, I think BSU will be the first 11-1 non-AQ at large, but not this year (unlike Lindy and a few other preview guides).

I'd rather be surfing.

by Pac 10 Alum on Jun 2, 2011 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Doubt It

I imagine Sam Ukwuachu,Blake Renaud, Jeff Worthy, Matt Miller and even Marcus Rios if he sticks would disagree with your starters for 2012.

by Power of the Blue on Jun 2, 2011 10:39 AM PDT reply actions  

Very true

My projections are based more on basic advancing of the depth chart rather than who might come out in and tear things up. All the guys you mentioned are definitely capable of playing/starting in ’12.

"I did not send you to go-kart camp." - Maury Garner

by Kevan Lee on Jun 2, 2011 11:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

Too many unknowns

Good points Kevin- but Boise does reload quite well especially when you compare our recruits to our conference mates. It is just too difficult to predict how these kids will perform and improve as they become men. We all thought “Who is going to fill the shoes of Ian Johnson?” (l- I’ll take Doug Martin anyday). How do you replace Darren College or Ryan Clady? (Nate Potter has turned out pretty well). How do you replace Marty Tadman and Gerald Alexander. (Jeron and George are a pretty good pair.) Remember when we thought that we would have a nice rebuilding year, but good experience for our freshman quarterback Kellen Moore- we had never won an away game at a BCS opponent until Kellen set foot in Autzen. Now we are saying how do we replace Austin and Titus- well I am just going to trust that someone will step up and we haven’t left the cupboard bare- Kirby, Tyler, and the Burroughs may surprise us. After Kellen- is it possible we will be just as fantastic with a Grant, or Joe under center? It’s hard to imagine, but its possible because the leadership in the coaches office hasn’t changed through the changes on the field.

Our quarterback goes to 11 !

by flyfishferg on Jun 2, 2011 10:44 AM PDT reply actions  

Miller Time?

Most are looking past Matt Miller. He had a serious injury but before that I thought of him as 1 of 3 prize recruits from the 2010 class.

by Power of the Blue on Jun 2, 2011 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

This is blasphemy!

You should not question the abilities of the almighty Chris Petersen. In all seriousness, the only question I have is who is going to replace the safeties. Also, don’t expect another Kellen Moore any time soon. It is very difficult to recruit a player of that caliber.

by wetter67 on Jun 2, 2011 12:02 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Yes, it was weird putting Quaylon Ewing’s name in the safety spot. I couldn’t think of anyone else.

"I did not send you to go-kart camp." - Maury Garner

by Kevan Lee on Jun 2, 2011 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Meaning No. 2: The end of an era

? I dk about this statement. I mean granted the Broncos have fielded an incredible team the past couple years. BUT and a BIG BUT @ that, is the fact of the Broncos awesome recruiting. It seems atleast to me the Broncos have stepped it up a notch in the recruiting field and are actually anymore getting 4star recruits which 10 years ago they weren’t even touching that kind of talent. I mean I have been a fan for only about 13 years now but in this time I have seen the Broncos mature from a everyday football team that you just barely find on espn scorebox to a football factory that you find everywhere now. I mean the Broncos are becoming a household name especially after the 2005-06 fiesta bowl win over the sooners. I am starting to see a pattern here with the more publicity the Broncos get the obvious occurs where recruits start paying more attention to not only the school but the coaching staff and the prior results that are shown on the field, and most of the time are a HUGE + when the Broncos are tearing it up every year. Thats just my 2 cents tho _

GO BRONCOS!

Life's Greatest Question.... "Why do they sell hot dogs in packs of 12 but buns in packs of 8?"

by BoiseFanSince98 on Jun 2, 2011 12:05 PM PDT reply actions  

"tmunson": (def.) a senile and amlevolent old codger with (apparently) limitless time and (apparenlty)limitless energy

to harangue the younger readership to (apparently) no effect , doing so with(obviously) no talent but who(manifestly) does not give a (bw)

tvmunson

by tmunson on Jun 2, 2011 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'd be willing to forgive all of the above transgressions

If you’ll just work the word weltanshauung into one of your magnum opera. (You did know opera is the plural of opus, didn’t you?)

You cannot reason a man out of something he didn't reason himself into in the first place.

by kcam on Jun 2, 2011 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Opera plural of opus? No didn't know that .

Latin conjugation would go us, i, o um o is orum is os is. Gotta’ goog’e welthe(bw)

tvmunson

by tmunson on Jun 2, 2011 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

"worldview"-good word, typical of Krauts

 am familiar with it from the book “A Confederacy of Dunces”, the posthumously published best seller. The main character waxes eloquently on his own and compares it to the narrow and “blighted” ones of his various antagonsits. It’ll be a snap. I got a GAZETTA forming now, no debris yet but light hail and rain.

tvmunson

by tmunson on Jun 2, 2011 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Why am I not surprised?

You cannot reason a man out of something he didn't reason himself into in the first place.

by kcam on Jun 2, 2011 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

singularly? what am I? chopped ham? potted palm?

My weltanshauung is peace will come in our time, and if not, enjoy your schadenfreude.

If you don't like something, change it. If you can't change it, change the way you think about it. Maya Angelou
BSU changes the BCS! 2011

by boiseblues on Jun 2, 2011 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Your weltanshauung is my zeitgeist

You cannot reason a man out of something he didn't reason himself into in the first place.

by kcam on Jun 2, 2011 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

are we going to be called out for noun-dropping?

If you don't like something, change it. If you can't change it, change the way you think about it. Maya Angelou
BSU changes the BCS! 2011

by boiseblues on Jun 2, 2011 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

SHAMELESS noun-dropping!

You cannot reason a man out of something he didn't reason himself into in the first place.

by kcam on Jun 2, 2011 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

*blush* aw gee. thx. :)

eager for the next Gazetta…why aren’t you posting it?
still working on your updraft, I guess.

If you don't like something, change it. If you can't change it, change the way you think about it. Maya Angelou
BSU changes the BCS! 2011

by boiseblues on Jun 2, 2011 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Are we talkin about 'large' men in tights hollerin at folks in a dead language?

Been to a few, to each their own.

"Boise State football is now a Fargo winter. You know what's coming, and that information does you no good whatsoever". Matt James / The Fresno Bee

by blue4areason on Jun 2, 2011 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

A perfect description of the frwnch!
Are we talkin about ‘large’ men in tights hollerin at folks in a dead language?

You don’t mind if I use that?

it's not that you are stupid, it's just that you don't suspect!
Nothing is good nor bad until compared to something else.

by Darth Prophet on Jun 3, 2011 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Feel free.

"Boise State football is now a Fargo winter. You know what's coming, and that information does you no good whatsoever". Matt James / The Fresno Bee

by blue4areason on Jun 3, 2011 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

I remember

when Andy Griffith said “Opera? That’s just high class hollerin’”

by bobink on Jun 4, 2011 1:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

I was saying early last season

that the way Pete is managing his players, the next years (2011) team could probably repeat a MNC run if this team (2010) could do it first.
I was wrong, we had that game that never was, happen.
So, that leaves this years team to get the job done.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that next years team (2012) as a follow up to a possible MNC contender this year, could possibly get enough momentum and following to push them to another possible run at it again.
This has GOT to produce better and better recruits to this winning lifestyle. History is behind us on this. I think I don’t want to be like Sisyphus and let that stone roll back! It took this program all these years to push that “rock” up the media hill.
Maybe I could write a song about that…
let’s rock
and not let it…
roll back.

by bobink on Jun 4, 2011 1:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

rec'd and thanks for the pep talk!

If you don't like something, change it. If you can't change it, change the way you think about it. Maya Angelou
BSU changes the BCS! 2011

by boiseblues on Jun 2, 2011 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

Rec'd

"Boise State football is now a Fargo winter. You know what's coming, and that information does you no good whatsoever". Matt James / The Fresno Bee

by blue4areason on Jun 2, 2011 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

and to you...rec'd and thanks for the pep talk II

If you don't like something, change it. If you can't change it, change the way you think about it. Maya Angelou
BSU changes the BCS! 2011

by boiseblues on Jun 2, 2011 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

If it was all about recruiting

The top 25 finish would like the top 25 rank recruiting list, but it never does ;)

I’m not worried a bit I’m excited, new challenges new face there will be tons of drama and the media will be all over us like the last year and this. Nope it’s all about the tone set by the coaches.

We had our slip last year, I’m looking for shock an awe in the years to follow.

it's not that you are stupid, it's just that you don't suspect!
Nothing is good nor bad until compared to something else.

by Darth Prophet on Jun 2, 2011 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

True True.

I will be honest. When I was at Senior Night 2010 on the Blue, it was hard to not get a little emotional when Austin Pettis and Titus Young got called out.

But pretty soon, a new batch of kids will join the bronco family. It’s a happy eternal cycle. (yes, there is bronco football in the afterlife… i think the mayans said something about that too).

by WildCard1989 on Jun 5, 2011 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well said
And after four or five years, we’re required to let them leave the nest.

I have been associated in many different ways with the BSU programs since 1960.
What I have found through having several ex-football players as close friends, although they are all from various places in the states, they don’t think of Boise as a “nest”. They end up living here and raising families and bringing other family members to the area. They feel Boise is their “home”.
And, damn it…I’m proud they feel that way!

by bobink on Jun 4, 2011 2:07 AM PDT reply actions  

That is excellent news! I had know idea any stayed, beyond those players that were local to start with.

If you don't like something, change it. If you can't change it, change the way you think about it. Maya Angelou
BSU changes the BCS! 2011

by boiseblues on Jun 4, 2011 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

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