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Badger's Improbable BCS Path - Week 12

The Badger could hardly believe his eyes Saturday afternoon, having gotten so accustomed to the idea that Boise State should never lose at home. Having finally shaken off that admittedly ridiculous expectation, Mr. Badger shifted his attention to Plan B.

According to the ever-optimistic Badger, he still sees a way for Kellen and the boys to play in a BCS Bowl, provided they win the rest of their games (which should never - ever - again be taken for granted)

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The Badger has a hard time believing his Boys in Blue are actually human...

Having studied the rankings and the rules for at least 5 minutes (which is an eternity for the Badger's attention span), Mr. Badger says there are two realistic ways for the Broncos to make a BCS game. Join us after the jump for his answers...

Once again, it goes without saying, but for any scenario to work, the Broncos must win the rest of their games - the more convincingly, the better. 

As things currently stand, there are a few fairly solid assumptions we can make, and a few unknowns. The following diagram is a "generic best guess" of the "fairly solid assumptions"... Don't worry so much about the order of teams as the number of BCS slots taken (in Green). Keep in mind... each AQ conference is limited to 2 slots (did you hear that SEC?)

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The Badger makes a lot of assumptions... uh-oh!

A fairly important - yet realistic - assumption to make that is required for either of Mr. Badger's BCS-Bustin' scenarios to work is that only a few AQ conferences will fill their maximum allowance of 2 BCS slots. Here are those conferences (and teams) with reasons below:

 

  • SEC (duh)
  • Big 12 (2nd-strongest conference in eyes of voters)
  • Notice how the PAC-12 wasn't listed? Big assumption... which requires Stanford to lose. 
  • Notice how the ACC wasn't listed? Clemson and VaTech have lots of hard games left (including against each other in Champ game)
  • Notice how Big-10 wasn't listed? No one stood out this year and Champ Game will ensure at least one more loss to a top contender
  • Notice how Big East wasn't listed? You did???

Making a few "educated best guesses" leaves the diagram with some additional answers (see blue), but still some critical unanswered questions (see yellow). 

 

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The Badger makes even more assumptions... don't say I didn't warn you - it could get ugly!

 

The 3 Most Likely Scenarios: 

The first (and second) most likely ways for Boise to gain access to a BCS Bowl is to essentially "claim" its non-AQ bid back from Houston / Southern Miss. Yes, we know it would not be via an automatic non-AQ bid (TCU has essentially won the MWC title, thus knocking us out of auto-AQ bid considerations).

However, if there is not an automatic non-AQ bid this year, it would open up an additional at-large bid spot. (One that Boise could easily slip into.) There are two ways this could happen, and each requires Houston and Southern Mississippi lose at least one time each. The most realistic scenarios for this to occur: 

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Tulsa becomes our Savior

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SMU plays a role...

The second way for Boise to join the BCS party is for Stanford to fall (further) from grace, thereby knocking the PAC-12 down to only one BCS slot (in the Rose Bowl), and opening up another at-large bid. 

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Oregon goes bowling in Pasadena, and Stanford pouts...

Critical Game Outcome: 

To keep Oregon out of the National Championship Game (and Stanford therefore out of the Rose Bowl), it would really help if this happened....

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Boise may have a 2nd opportunity this season to defend a victory over a Fiesta Bowl opponent (TCU; Oklahoma)

All of the information above was developed by a Badger; as a result, it is probably completely wrong. 

This content was not created by OBNUG and therefore may not meet our standards. On the contrary, it probably exceeds them.

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