Everything you need to know for Boise State vs. Wyoming [Game Preview]
by Kevan Lee on Sep 14, 2010 12:00 PM PDT
in Boise State football
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PrintThe Broncos and Cowboys square off on Saturday night in what absolutely no one is calling the greatest game in Boise State football history. Have we learned nothing from Coach Pete?
The Cowboys will give the Broncos a stiff test in a hostile environment, and while the buildup lacks the hullabaloo of Virginia Tech, the game itself is well worth getting antsy about. After the jump, find out what my key matchups and factors are for the Broncos' game against the Cowboys, and then weigh in with your thoughts in the comments. Does this game have you worried? Think Wyoming can hang with BSU? Let's discuss.
No. 3 Boise State vs. Wyoming
- When to watch: Saturday, September 18, 6:00 MT kickoff
- Where to watch: War Memorial Stadium, Laramie, Wyo. (Capacity: 32,580)
- How to watch: Live on CBS College Sports (details)
- What to wager: Boise State by 24
- What to wear: Forecast calls for clear skies, 76 degrees
Three matchups to watch
Wyoming QB Austyn Carta-Samuels vs. Boise State's defensive line
Boise State should be able to harass Carta-Samuels plenty on Saturday night if the BSU D-line's dominating effort against Virginia Tech is any indication. But a lot of good that does if they can't corral the Cowboys QB. Carta-Samuels is essentially Tyrod Taylor Lite - elusive in the pocket and a dangerous passer when he's on his game. The Bronco line had its share of miscommunication on keeping containment and staying home against Taylor. If that happens against Wyoming, Carta-Samuels knows how to take advantage, like he did last week against Texas.
Boise State WRs Tyler Shoemaker and Mitch Burroughs vs. Wyoming CBs James Caraway and Marqueston Huff
I was tempted to make this be about the matchup between A-Team Boise State WRs Austin Pettis and Titus Young and Wyoming starting CBs Marcell Gipson and Tashaun Gipson. And no doubt that matchup will be big. But I went with the next men up for both teams thanks to this quote from Wyoming senior safety Chris Prosinski, speaking about the last time he played the Broncos:
"With all the different shifts and motions they run I was kind of lost in that game as a freshman."
Marqueston Huff is a freshman, James Caraway a sophomore. They'll be tested by the Bronco offense and by the second wave of BSU's receiving corps, so it will be interesting to see if the Wyoming corners stand their ground and get things figured out.
LB Brian Hendricks and S Chris Prosinski vs. QB Kellen Moore
An interesting chess match to watch will be Hendricks and Prosinski versus Kellen Moore, not so much in a one-on-one open field tackling kind of way (Bryan Harsin's QB option infatuation notwithstanding), but in a one-on-one football smarts kind of way. Will Hendricks suck in on Moore's play action fakes? Can Moore move Prosinski out of passing lanes with lookaways and pump fakes? Will Wyoming's defensive captains get their teammates in the proper position pre-snap to defend the Broncos? Is anyone on the CBS College Sports broadcast team even going to know this stuff goes on in football games?
Injury report
For Boise State:
- Ryan Winterswyk probable with leg injury
- Jeron Johnson probable with unknown
- Brenel Myers probable with ankle injury
- Derrell Acrey will play with ankle injury
For Wyoming:
- Reserve OT Travis Hillen out with an Achilles injury
What Wyoming can do to win
After two weeks of football, Wyoming is the third-worst rushing team in the country, averaging only 47 yards per game. And one of those games was against Southern Utah. If the Cowboys can run the ball effectively against the Broncos, they will be in good shape for a number of reasons.
- They won't be behind by a bunch.
- They will give their defense a rest and keep Kellen Moore and Co. off the field.
- They will be moving the ball somewhat consistently.
Where those rushing yards come from is up to the Cowboys. Carta-Samuels is a threat to run both on designed plays and on scrambles, so he could account for a majority of the yards. RB Alvester Alexander could get a hot hand and bail out Wyoming on the ground. It really doesn't matter who gets the ground game going. If anyone on Wyoming can find any room consistently, the Cowboys can keep it close.
The last two times that the Cowboys played the Broncos (2006 and 2007), Wyoming hung with BSU for the duration. One of the keys for the Pokes back then was getting off the field on 3rd down, and that won't change Saturday night. Now, a lot of Wyoming's success in this area might depend on Boise State's missed opportunities. If Wyoming can limit big plays on first and second down, they'll have a better shot at stopping the Broncos on third ... or the Broncos stopping themselves. Don't forget, Boise State had 11 penalties against the Hokies, a couple of which were offensive drive stallers.
What Wyoming can do to lose
Here's a number that Wyoming fans don't want to hear: 23 missed tackles. No, not against Texas. Against Southern Utah, a team that the Cowboys beat 28-20 in the season opener. If you watched the highlight tape above, you can see that missed tackles were also a problem against Texas, leading to the two game-changing scores by the Longhorns. Missing tackles on Saturday will doom the Cowboys. The Bronco running backs and receivers are too talented to let roam free in open space, and they will make you pay.
It's a broken record, but turnovers would kill any chance Wyoming has, too. Boise State only forced the one fumble against Virginia Tech (and forced is putting it nicely), they lost the turnover battle, and still beat the Hokies. If Wyoming finds itself upside down on turnovers on Saturday, they do not have the ability to overcome that against BSU.
What Boise State can do to win
Kellen Moore was solid and effective against Virginia Tech. If he happens to be spectacular and prolific against Wyoming, the Cowboys don't stand a chance. Moore should benefit on Saturday from Boise State's advantage up front and in the ground game. Imagine the kind of time he could have on play action. Imagine if the screen game gets rolling. If the the Bronco passing attack puts up 350 yards or more, this one's over. Wyoming cannot keep up.
Boise State has advantages at most every position on the football field, and they need to make the most of it with a fast start right from kickoff. Take the crowd out of the game, jump out to a big lead, and play smart football the rest of the way. Doing so will make getting a W much easier on the Broncos.
What Boise State can do to lose
Fans definitely don't want to see a repeat of the Tyrod Taylor Show on Saturday night, so containing Carta-Samuels will be key. But Boise State can also not afford to get too aggressive, sloppy, or out of position in its secondary and let the Cowboys beat them through the air. Carta-Samuels will never be mistaken for Steve Young, much less Colin Kaepernick, but as we saw on Monday night against the Hokies, Boise State's secondary is not foolproof. And as always, those problems get magnified when a mobile quarterback extends plays with his feet. If Boise State's strategy is to defend the pass in lieu of focusing on Wyoming's anemic ground game, then the secondary might get some extra help with more forgiving coverage schemes. Either way, the Bronco defense will likely live or die with how its corners and safeties perform.
No matter how it might happen - mistakes, penalties, turnovers, etc. - losing the field position game would be a bad sign for the Broncos. Virginia Tech got two of its touchdowns on a short field following turnovers. Wyoming could easily do the same. The Cowboys don't have to do anything special on offense to get points if they start consistently in Boise State territory. Plus, consistently bad field position means that the Broncos aren't moving the ball on offense, which would be bad times all around. Lose the field position battle - and lose it soundly - and this one's a lot closer than you'd expect.
Other factors
- The death of Ruben Narcisse. Wyoming lost freshman linebacker Ruben Narcisse in a car accident prior to the Texas game, and Saturday's contest against Boise State will be the Cowboys' first home game since Narcisse's death. Now, I'm not one to usually put too much stock in the emotional high of playing for a fallen teammate, but everyone else sure seems to be jumping on that bandwagon. Do you think this kind of intangible matters on the field?
- Boise State's defensive strategy. What does Kwiatkowski do on defense? The Broncos defended Tyrod Taylor with a variety of schemes, some more effective than others. If BSU maintains the rotating looks from the opener, here's hoping they work better than they did against Taylor.
- Close game early. Wyoming took a 7-6 lead on Texas late in the second quarter. How would the Broncos respond if a similar circumstance came their way on Saturday night?
Your turn
What are you feelings on the Cowboys? Think they can hang with the Broncos for four quarters? What are your keys to a Bronco victory? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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Comments
I never thought Wyoming could hang with Boise State...
…But I’ll give due where it is due. They always do. Every single game played in Laramie is closer than it “should” be. I called this game a loss at the beginning of the year, and while some things have changed that make me doubt my own prediction, I also won’t be surprised if Wyoming pulls this off.
There isn’t a single thing on paper that makes it this way, which is why it scares me. Wyoming at home is just a tough game every single time.
by Spyder Mayhem on Sep 14, 2010 12:10 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Trap game of the first order. I am informed that wind dies down later in day; here's hopin'.
Our ‘06 game, with dominant O-line, was a nail-biter. We only scored 1 offensive TD; if Scandrick doesn’t get pick on their last drive, they were moving the ball well. They came on in the blue when we had Dinwiddie and gave us all we wanted, and this with mostly frosh and sophs. Watched Wyoming since the 70s-always physical.
tvmunson
We need to start fast
and don’t look back. If Moore has time—which I think he will—he’ll shred the ’pokes secondary. Also, I think our defense will sync up better after the Hokie game.
by kcam on Sep 14, 2010 12:29 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I Agree
For any potential “trap game” (I know, I know…) ya need to score early and often. I know we’re probably going to light them up. And the coaches will have the guys ready. Our playbook confuses them and our athletes are more experienced. But I still think Wyoming is in a dangerous slot in our schedule. Was never comfortable with it.
I don’t care about style points or computer rankings or what freaking ohio state or Alabama does in their huge stadiums in their big cities. I just want to get out of a lonely desolate spot in eastern WY with a win.
Go Broncos!! Beat Wyoming!!
And that's another Bronco... FIRST DOWN!!
Not too fast-we saw that at NMSU in '06.
We got on top of ‘em early and then hit the showers, but with a lot to go. Childs’ cluth td catch made score more respectable than game was.
tvmunson
Ruben Narcisse
I think it’s possible the emotion of playing for a fallen teammate can be an intangible for the first series or two of a game. But eventually, you’re going to have to settle in and focus on gameplans and instincts.
"It takes no talent to give great effort" -Chris Petersen
I agree
I think Wyoming may be able to feed off of this emotion/adrenaline for a drive or two or possible at the end of the game if necessary, but hopefully the Bronco jump on them early. I dont like close road games on TV channels I dont have!!
by Drofdarb23 on Sep 14, 2010 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That poor family. Puts this all in perspective. If all you have the energy/time/inclination/ability to worry about a football
game, say a silent prayer of gratitude. Amen
tvmunson
by tmunson on Sep 14, 2010 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Did this emotion surface during the UT game?
They’ve already played one game since his passing; although this will be their first home game since the tragedy.
Yeah I was thinking first home game
I imagine they’ll have a moment of silence and maybe a little tribute or something for Ruben Narcisse. It will be a night game which doesn’t happen very often for Wyoming. And it was reported that the game is a sellout. I think the combination of those things will have the crowed excited for the game and the players will be feeding off of the crowd and emotion.
The Wind
There should be an over/under on the wind speed at every home game in Wyoming. 2006 game was close because Z was never the best pass thrower and the wind magnified this. Kellen had trouble throwing into the wind 2nd half of the Nevada game in Reno 2008 – adding zip to the ball which hit the players hard, popped up, and let Reno back into the game.
The Wyoming line backers are tough and all over the field so I expect to see lots of runs followed by creative passes to the TE. Have the WYoming LB’s chase Efaw & Gallarda up & down the field half the time and then let them pound them on the running plays. Wear out the LB’s and create open space. This should open up the attack for the second half.
Also, Quinten Jones made the interception TD to win the game.
“The wind dies down later in the day”
Correct – the wind only blows at 50mph after 5pm.
word on the street (whatever that means)
Is that cable one will have cbs sports before saturday’s game….they already came through with the nfl channel!
"You can come across as a jerk. ... But that's the No. 1 characteristic we're looking for from guys on our field. Whether it's checkers or jump rope or football, to stop me you've got to bring everything you've got."
by TooMuchYoung on Sep 14, 2010 2:01 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
It does seem a little high
Wyoming seems to play us pretty hard so that 23.5 does seem kind of high. On the other hand, I wouldn’t be surprised if Boise State blew out the Cowboys by 35.
"It takes no talent to give great effort" -Chris Petersen
Dr J; this may be cutting the onion too thin
but the “line” is designed to get you to bet and specifically to get an even balance so the Wyoming “shorts” equal the Wyoming “longs” (to borrow from Wall Street parlance). While logically connected, its not necessarily an attempt to predict the score. The "open’ is designed to get action; inveterate gamblers will play, and when they do this will correct (if its deemed to high) Ouch-I cut myself.
tvmunson
It must be close to a prediction
The most important element of an opening spread is that it must be close to what the the gambling degenerates think is probable score difference. There is only so much a sports book can move a line (otherwise things like getting middled occur – the gambler wins no matter the outcome, and acquiring too much risk the book cannot ‘get off of’). Sports books of course consider the bettor mood when setting an opening line, but always start out with a ‘true’ number. The sports books are only worried about the hardcore gamblers. as that is always the largest portion of the action – they are enticing the ones that sit in the sports books all day studying college football. Also, there is a direct relationship between the spread and the moneyline and even the total lines – if those lines move then the spread must move too.
Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, uh, your opinion, man
by Dale Applegate on Sep 14, 2010 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions
It seems a little high to me too
I wouldnt be surprised to see the wind & hostile crowd help keep Wyoming in the game, but I also woulnt be shocked if the broncos win by 40.
Texas In 2009
Was ranked #2 in 2009 and came into Laramie a 33.5-point favorite.
It was 13-10 at the Half.
Texas found a way to turn on the gas in the 2nd Half (as the wind calmed down?!) and won 41-10. But mighty Texas didn’t cover the point spread against the pesty Pokes.
And that's another Bronco... FIRST DOWN!!
Caution:
The Pokes are out to prove they can beat us, especially after their recent loss. I expect a tough and stressful first half, with Boise State up by 6 or 7 going into the 3rd quarter. By then I expect the Pokes will be unable to keep up and we will end up winning by at least 2 touchdowns. I expect Kellen to play the entire game, barring any injury.
by boisest8 on Sep 14, 2010 3:30 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I expect
A beating from left to right. Coach Pete said it’s on the players to prove the country wrong. 48-7 might do the trick for a few hours.
"You don't play against opponents. You play against the game..." - Bobby Knight
I Concur
..the boys are gonna be pissed that VaTech went and laid a big ol’ egg against JMU. They are going to want to extract their pound of flesh and make a statement. I look for The Hout and Billy Winn to raise all sorts of hell on Saturday
Good Night. Game Over. Drive Home Safely.
by MiketheTransplant on Sep 14, 2010 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm on this bandwagon too.
Going into the season, I circled this as “trap game” central, but with VT’s loss to JMU, there’s no trap in Wyoming.
by Cougarflounder on Sep 14, 2010 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Only if the boys stay focused
And only if our fans show up and cheer like crazy.
The Bronco players repeatedly say how much it means for fan support when they’re on the road. We – the 12th player – do make a difference. So Go Broncos! And see you in Wyoming!
"On your way up, don't let me down" - Bob Marley, on his deathbed to his son Ziggy
by Please Spay and Neuter Your Pets on Sep 14, 2010 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Containing Carta-Samuels
I’ve noticed one weakness in DE Jerrel Root’s game is getting sucked in to far and not playing his edge responsibility. Happened several times last year against Nevada, and again on one of Taylor’s long Labor Day scrambles (ended with Jeron Johnson diving at a semi-hurdling Tyrod) when Root was out of position. Don’t want to see Cowboy drives extended by successful third down scrambles around the edge.
If the Broncos beat the Cowboys by four TDs
will it make it okay if ECU beats VT?
We want to build a university our football team can be proud of. -- Dr. George Lynn Cross
by marktgarten on Sep 14, 2010 11:40 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I am following their fans lead...
I have no hope for VT and their season. I mean if their fans are giving up, who am I to contradict them? :)
BSU don't need smoke and mirrors to get the job done, they got orange pants.
2 WEEKS TO PREP
That’s all that needs to be said. BSU coaching staff will have an offensive game plan that will expose and exploit the Cowboy’s weaknesses. The defense will be fully prepared to take away their passing game and shut down their QB. Unless BSU doesn’t show up, they should handle their business as usual.
by Broncsfan4life on Sep 15, 2010 10:56 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
When too many things lean in our direction, I get worried. Other than 2 mentioned below, nothing registers in wyo's favor. karma
gods get fiesty. I need to sacrifice a goat, quickly.
tvmunson
Wind and
field elevation are to Wyoming’s advantage. We own the rest.
"We do not take counsel of our fears, our naysayers, or the unknown" Coach Pete 1-1-07
excellent analysis
Great job, Kevan! I don’t think the Cowboys will hang around as they did against Texas, because the Broncos are simply a better team than the Longhorns (especially on offense). This is especially so in comparing QB’s. BSU will have too much offense for the Cowboys to keep up with. The halftime score sure as heck won’t be 7-6. I predict a blowout victory.
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2012 Boise State Football Schedule
@ Michigan State  |
Fri 08/31 | 6:00 p.m. MT |
| Miami (OH) | Sat 09/15 | 2:00 p.m. MT |
| BYU |
Thu 09/20 | TBA |
| @ New Mexico | Sat 09/29 | TBA |
| @ Southern Miss | Sat 10/06 | TBA |
| Fresno State | Sat 10/13 | 1:30 p.m. MT |
| UNLV | Sat 10/20 | 1:30 p.m. MT |
| @ Wyoming |
Sat 10/27 | 1:30 p.m. MT |
| San Diego State | Sat 11/03 | 8:30 p.m. MT |
| @ Hawaii | Sat 11/10 | 5:00 p.m. MT |
| Colorado St. | Sat 11/17 | 1:30 p.m. MT |
| @ Nevada | Sat 12/1 | TBA |
