BIFFF on Boise State versus Virginia Tech
by Kevan Lee on Sep 10, 2010 8:19 AM PDT
in Boise State football
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PrintWe know Tyrod Taylor had 73 yards rushing on Monday night. Or do we? We know D.J. Harper and Doug Martin are ridiculously talented running backs. But how ridiculously talented?
These are questions that game charting and advanced stats can help answer, and it just so happens that BIFFF specializes in each. After the jump, get the bonus statistics on Boise State - Virginia Tech that you can't find anywhere else, including irrefutable evidence of Harper and Martin's ridiculous talent.
The Bronco Institute of Football Facts and Figures (BIFFF) is Boise State statistics on steroids - the legal ones that make things better and have no negative side effects like impotence.
Your new box score
| Boise State | Virginia Tech | |
|---|---|---|
| Total Yards | 383 | 314 |
| First Downs | 18 | 21 |
| Plays | 62 | 66 |
| Possessions | 12 | 12 |
| Average Start | 36 | 32 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Swing Points | 10 | 0 |
| Passing Yards | 215 | 186 |
| Completions | 23 | 15 |
| Attempts | 38 | 22 |
| Rushing Yards | 168 | 128 |
| Carries | 24 | 44 |
| Penalties | 11 | 7 |
| Yards | 105 | 55 |
| Third Down Percentage | 40 | 33 |
| Attempts | 15 | 12 |
| Conversions | 6 | 4 |
| Yards Per Play | 6.2 | 4.8 |
| Yards Per Drive | 31.9 | 26.2 |
| Wasted Yards | 134 | 77 |
| Yards on Scoring Drives | 260 | 278 |
| Final Score | 33 | 30 |
Swing points = Points on defense, special teams, or drives < 25 yards
Yards for points = Yards on scoring drives
Wasted yards = Yards on non-scoring drives
Notable
- Virginia Tech's advantage in wasted yards shows that the Hokies made the most of their drives when their drives were, you know, actually going somewhere. If Virginia Tech had made the field goal it missed, the Hokie Wasted Yards total would have been 36 yards less. The worst wasted drives after that were the penultimate clock-grinding one and the very first drive of the game where they had 15 yards from a pass interference penalty.
- As lopsided as the field position battle began (see below), it ended evenly enough. That is due in large part to Boise State's two fumbles, which gave Virginia Tech the ball in Bronco territory.
- Boise State averaged 7 yards per rush and only 5.7 yards per pass attempt.
- The Broncos' 10 swing points (following the fumble recovery and blocked punt) made the difference in the final score.
The five most interesting stats from Boise State versus Virginia Tech
Only one quarter of Tyrod Taylor's rushing attempts came on designed running plays
The final box score claims that Taylor had 73 yards rushing on 16 attempts, but you can't fool me that easily, box score. Truth is, Taylor had one yard on four rushing attempts (three of which went for negative yardage and the fourth for nine yards). The rest of his carries consisted of three sacks for -12 yards and nine scrambles for 84 yards.
Think about how different Monday night would have gone without a mobile quarterback in Virginia Tech's backfield. Stick a statue back there and the Broncos may have had nine coverage sacks rather than nine coverage scrambles.
Feel any better about Boise State's secondary now?
Virginia Tech threw at Brandyn Thompson more than they threw at Jamar Taylor
Safe to say, the Hokies were not afraid to go after Boise State's No. 1 cornerback. In fact, one series in the second half, the Hokies went at Thompson on three out of their four pass attempts - an interference penalty, an overthrown deep ball, and a TD toss where Thompson missed the tackle.
The numbers above are as accurate as I can get them; it's possible that some listed targets were actually zone coverage where Thompson just happened to get there first. But regardless, teams used to spend long stretches not even looking Kyle Wilson's way. It looks like that won't be the case with Thompson this year.
Kellen Moore threw passes to 11 different receivers
He completed passes nine different receivers and missed on passes to Geraldo Hiwat and Jeremy Avery.
Doug Martin and D.J. Harper were more successful carrying tacklers than breaking tackles
The duo of Harper and Martin broke six tackles Monday night (Martin broke four, Harper broke two), which is impressive enough. But how about those yards after contact? Seventy-five percent of their rushing yards came after contact. Eight of Martin's 12 carries had YAC, and three of Harper's four carries did.
Field position percentage
Not sure what you're seeing here? Let me explain. Field position percentage basically figures how many plays your team spent on the other team's side of the field. The figures above - in all their gray confusion - show the breakdown of quarter by quarter for both teams.
Virginia Tech put up the lowest FP% in the first quarter but also finished with the two highest FP% quarters in the second and third, which is not coincidentally when they started taking charge. Interesting, if you can understand any of it.
Your turn
What do you make of these numbers? Feel any better knowing Boise State's coverage was solid nine more times than you thought? Have a new appreciation for Doug Martin and D.J. Harper? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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Comments
Question on "Wasted Yards"
Does that include yards on drives that went backwards? I’m thinking particularly of that early 3-and-out where VTech lost a bunch. If those negative yards are included in the net, does that obscure the amount of yards that were wasted on other drives?
Of course, if that’s intended to be compared directly to the net yards of offense, then including the negatives naturally makes sense. Just curious what the intent is.
Yes, it does include backward drives. The VT drive in question only lost 5 yards total, thanks to some easy yards Taylor picked up on 3rd down. So it doesn’t obscure the total Wasted Yards too much. Had they lost 30 yards? Then yes, that would have messed things up big time.
Good question.
"Please put your fat finger down!" - Lars
Kevan-your sober analysis helps dispel some anxiety. Good work.
I haven’t yet studied your post in deateil ( I shall) but did you note that VT got 2 td’s on our turnovers? I think that’s right. Plus td after Makinde’s penalty, which I think didnt follow turnover, means we did better IMO. I’ve been catching the game replay in pieces but got it on tape last night. Anyway, if I’m right here, I’d argue our D was better than score showed; once we clean up. One stat: combined time on Boise State’s 2 second half scoring drives: 1 min 34 seconds.
tvmunson
Didnt know Hiwat got in game. have to look on replay.
Inquiring minds want to say: my brother-in-law was at game. He is very much a “glass half empty” guy re Broncos: he’s a solid fan, but worries over ANY perceived deficiency. So I was already a little relieved, even before KL’s post, regarding our DBs. He’s not that concerened. I’ll offer the following too-looked like there was confusion between safety/corner. Aint’ good, but correctible. Brother in law said coverage not bad. Plus, for all we heard about VT’s 4.26 speed corner, sure gave Titus a lot of space. Plus, one time TY and Pettis came in with Pettis at X and TY at Z; am I wrong or is that reversed from usual? we didnt make play but announcers noted VT was confused but didnt say why.
tvmunson
Right on, munson
Field Position % backs up what you were saying about Boise State’s defense looking worse than it was. Three-quarters of VT’s plays in the second and third quarters came in Boise State territory. Hard not to give up points when you’re basically playing on a half field.
"Please put your fat finger down!" - Lars
by Kevan Lee on Sep 10, 2010 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Me likey
Tells me D line should have gotten the game ball.
BSU don't need smoke and mirrors to get the job done, they got orange pants.
No doubt B; D line won game. Stopped RBs, got pressure with 4 (plus Lord Byron occasionally), and
stopped Taylor scarmbling (ok not so much, but good enough for government work)
tvmunson
TOMMY SMITH: MANIMAL. Heard it here.
Not great stats, but rewatch; he flies around like the Wicked Witch of the West (“SURRENDER HOKIES”)
tvmunson
KM fumble:meh.
Potter got beat and tried to make play. KM didnt se where he was and didnt expect him there. Once in a blue moon type deal, and as Potter gets used ot being BACK at LT unlikely to ever occur. As opposed to (see above).
tvmunson
Can you imagine
What the D-Line is going to do to quarterbacks who can’t run? Enderle was sacked 4 times in the first quarter. And they were playing North freakin’ Dakota!
McC and Winn may be the most feared men in the WAC by the time the season is over.
"It takes no talent to give great effort" -Chris Petersen
by JRig on Sep 10, 2010 9:22 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
hey, that's the 'fighting sue' you're bad mouthing.
This is national TV. So don't pick your noses or scratch your nuts.
by joe bob priddy on Sep 10, 2010 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Received on all points Doctor. Scary.
When you consider that VT had 2.9 yards per, and the majority of that was on “mpromptu-grab-ass-Fran-Tarkenton-like-you-run-to-the-mailbox-I’ll-run-behind-the-car-backyard-skinny -dipping-with-your-neighbor’s-sister” scrambling that no one can really game for-well, it was on balance a substantially superior effort.
tvmunson
by tmunson on Sep 10, 2010 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd!
and the majority of that was on "mpromptu-grab-ass-Fran-Tarkenton-like-you-run-to-the-mailbox-I’ll-run-behind-the-car-backyard-skinny -dipping-with-your-neighbor’s-sister" scrambling that no one can really game for
"It takes no talent to give great effort" -Chris Petersen
by JRig on Sep 10, 2010 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
North Dakota? As in "Fargo"?
Yeah, I’ve heard the minus a wood-chipper they aint all that (but if they DO have one-look out; especially if you’re wearing tennis shoes)
tvmunson
No kidding
You might as well throw Chase Baker and Crawford in there too.
"It takes no talent to give great effort" -Chris Petersen
Just for good measure
"It takes no talent to give great effort" -Chris Petersen
by JRig on Sep 10, 2010 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Plus Marshall; he flat pancaked Taylor on the last pass, kinda' like Winn did to Dalton on the Fiesta intercept play.
Root: semed to fall into what Vince Lombardi called “errors of enthusiasm”. Overplayed a couple. But it’s a workable type deal (ref Macy’s character in “Fargo” above)
tvmunson
i'm not a hundred percent convinced on the nine runs by Taylor on pass play stat
Couldn’t it really just be that instead of Taylor dumping it off to a checkdown receiver, when he sees that nobody is open he just instead to runs with it instead? I don’t remember every pass play/scramble that Taylor did, but my gut feeling from watching the game was that when Taylor’s #1 or #2 receiver wasn’t open, or when there was too much pressure, he tucked the ball and ran instead of dumping the ball to a RB or TE for a short pass. If that is right, then we aren’t looking at 9 coverage sacks, but 9 more (short) pass completions.
And I’m still pretty worried about the DBs. Until the last two drives, where the playcalling/decisionmaking by VaTech seemed to vanish, Taylor was 15/18. That is not a good stat for our defense.
Boise State will beat everyone with the balls to play them.
The Texans will beat everyone ... eventually.
I see your point
It’s impossible to tell from the broadcast feed whether or not Taylor had open checkdown receivers to throw to. The camera cuts off right behind the line. For sure, he scrambled nine times on plays that were designed to be passes. Whether or not those nine plays would have been sacks with other QBs is up in the air.
I’ll respect your decision to remain wary of Boise State’s DBs for awhile. All the stats in the world won’t change the way my stomach felt Monday night.
"Please put your fat finger down!" - Lars
ha
Oh ya, most of my wariness for the DBs is just a lingering feeling from how I felt on Monday. Telling myself that much of it probably came from the scheme, and that Taylor may well be a much better QB than I originally thought, and all the stats in the world probably can’t change that until I see more games.
And it is too bad that fans can’t get access to game tape and have to rely on the TV feed. It would make lots of this stuff (also: distinguishing busted coverages from the QB finding the holes in a zone) much easier.
I agree..
I think most of Taylor’s big runs came on scrambles (I still say his forearm was down on the immaculate scramble play).
To show further dominance of the d-line, of the 21 rushes by Williams seven were stuffed for one yard or fewer. The 15 yard gain come on a misdirection option play. Not sure why the Hokies didn’t go to more of that look.
"...east and west is the problem, north and south the solution."
I think the ball can touch the ground and be okay...
…just not any part other than the hand or foot. (I say part of the forearm touched)
I remember Arkansas having a chance to make a run at the BCS a few years ago and lost a game when the QB fumbled trying to support himself with the ball on the ground.
That’s my same argument on this play by Taylor – if the ball had popped out, would it have been ruled a fumble, or would he have been ruled down by contact.
"...east and west is the problem, north and south the solution."
Conversely, the VT front seven struggled against the run.
BSU had 3 situations of 3rd and short. They ran off runs of 11, 11, and 71 on those plays.
I can understand a team giving up a higher Yards Per Rush simply due to the threat of Kellen Moore and the passing game – but the Hokies were equally inept when stacking the box on clear rushing downs.
"...east and west is the problem, north and south the solution."
Which is weird
since as Duke head coach David Cutcliffe noted, “Virginia Tech was the dominant team physically.”
http://sports.chronicleblogs.com/2010/09/07/cutcliffe-not-impressed-with-boise-state/
You would think with all that physical domination, VT would have been better at stopping the run.
We want to build a university our football team can be proud of. -- Dr. George Lynn Cross
by marktgarten on Sep 10, 2010 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Duke's head coach is "not impressed"?
Duke?
Give me a break. Please schedule the Broncos then so they can drop 60 on your team.
I'm always right. Your Welcome.
He just wants some cover when he loses to VT
We want to build a university our football team can be proud of. -- Dr. George Lynn Cross
by marktgarten on Sep 10, 2010 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
Physically dominant?
You mean like every time Doug Martin ran the ball and it took three or four Hokies to bring him down?
Physically dominant like that?
Or like their speedster David Wilson getting steamrolled on every kickoff after a gain of ZERO yards?
Or maybe physically dominant like the way Ryan Williams was when he dropped like a hot rock everytime he carried the ball because an under-sized, inept, physically repressed Boise State player was imposing his will on him?
Wait a second… What BADWORDS! game was Cutcliffe watching?!
I’m sorry but close your damn mouth, too much stupid is coming out.
I'm always right. Your Welcome.
by Mikrino on Sep 10, 2010 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Duke would be a good series
Their stadium only holds 33,941, so they couldn’t complain about losing money on the deal. (Except it would probably hurt our SOS)
We want to build a university our football team can be proud of. -- Dr. George Lynn Cross
by marktgarten on Sep 10, 2010 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions
ya
the DLine absolutely shut down the actual running game by VaTech.
I’m still confused about the actual rules on the “immaculate scramble” play. But as far as I could tell on the stadium replay screen, the all hit the ground but not his forearm.
I think his tucking decision was affected, like practically everything VT did on O, by our line rush.
Watching on tv, we can see where the Broncos are; he can’t, not all of ’em anyway. Our 4 were in his face so much he went on instinct, which said “RUN!”
tvmunson
But sometimes that was because the line failed to contain him. I noticed a few times that an defensive end was so focused on getting to Taylor, that it allowed Taylor to slip to the outside. Once he slipped out of the pocket, he did real damage with both his feet and his arm, or both, like on the TD pass to Ryan Williams.
We want to build a university our football team can be proud of. -- Dr. George Lynn Cross
by marktgarten on Sep 10, 2010 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
true
I’m just saying, his instinct is “run” while other QBs instincts would be “throw to the RB!” Few quarterbacks that don’t suck would have instincts that said “just sit there and let yourself be sacked.”
Somewhere Enderle is pouting
We want to build a university our football team can be proud of. -- Dr. George Lynn Cross
Game plan was specific
VaTech shall not run the ball!
Give up a few long pass plays? Or QB scrambles?
This is a calculated risk that wins games.
Almost none of VaTech’s offense came on scripted plays. The result? A two minute drill that doesn’t work. No reason for DBs to bite on a play fake with under a minute left. This is the key difference between the last two possessions.
This is why I like QB’s like Kellen or RD better than Mike Vick or Colin Crapernick. A few big plays a game look good on a poster, but they don’t help when you need to run your offense to win a game.
by ElPepeGrande on Sep 10, 2010 2:41 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
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