Tourney wrap: Making sense of the Boise State - Butler comparisons
by Kevan Lee on Apr 7, 2010 8:10 AM PDT
in Boise State football
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PrintButler's run to the NCAA Tournament championship reminded nearly everyone of Boise State's potential run to a BCS title game. But are the two anywhere close to similar?
Most of the major media thinks so. After the jump, find out who's saying what, discuss what you believe, and find out where the truth lies in this discussion. Plus, will the Broncos return to the tourney next year with Leon Rice as coach? Let's discuss.
The Boise State - Butler comparisons
Ivan Maisel, Andy Staples, and Pete Futiak - three of college football's biggest voices - each weighed in with an opinion on Butler - Boise State yesterday. Allow me to tackle them one-by-one.
Ivan Maisel - Are the Broncos the Butler of autumn?
Having spent Monday at Boise State's spring football practice and Monday night presumably at The Ram in downtown Boise being mistaken for Chadd Cripe, Maisel has a rather unique perspective on the Boise State - Butler story.
Let's start with the good. Maisel makes an excellent point in clearing the room of any Cinderella-type comparisons between the two teams. Butler is no George Mason. Boise State is no Hawaii.
Butler began this season in the top 10 because of that accumulation of success. Expectations ran higher and the Bulldogs, who didn't lose from late December until Monday night, met them. A computer may spit out the RPI, but human beings seed the teams. Butler earned a No. 5 seed because of this season and because of the reputation it has built in seasons past.
All but two starters return for Boise State, which, like Butler, will reap the benefit of sustaining success. The Broncos will begin the season in the top five, the college football equivalent to a high seed in the NCAA tournament.
Correctamundo, Mr. Maisel.
(Note: If I were really being my typically cynical self, I would point out that a top five ranking should not be such a given as Maisel makes it seem, especially when one considers historical precedence of non-BCS teams getting jobbed and the previous non-BCS watermark of No. 14 set by Boise State last year.)
If Maisel had stopped there, he would have had me. The comparison of Butler to Boise State from a sustained success perspective is very feasible. Maisel's argument that a Boise State championship run would validate the BCS is not.
Victories in those games (versus VT and OSU) and every other, combined with Boise State's high preseason ranking, may be enough to confirm the Broncos' status as the Butler of autumn. If Boise State runs the table and plays for the crystal football, the structure of the BCS will be validated. Congress will be able to pay full attention to its main task, refusing to cooperate with the opposition. Talk of a playoff may die down.
If - and that is a very big "if" - Boise State gets to the BCS national championship game, it will be a one-time hit in a sea of BCS misses. The thrill of a USC-Texas Rose Bowl title game did not forever justify the infallability of the BCS. Why would a trip from the Broncos do the trick?
If Boise State runs the table and does not play for the crystal football, the shouting and keening -- from playoff proponents in general and Broncos fans in particular -- will make your ears bleed.
Fair enough. But can you imagine the shouting and keening (whatever that means) from fans of one-loss BCS schools if Boise State passes them for a national championship berth? By the time December rolls around, Boise State will be three-to-four months removed from its Virginia Tech game and having just played a nine-game stretch involving every single WAC school plus Toledo. If that is not enough to get them jumped in the polls by other schools (which is exactly what happened in 2009), then it will certainly be enough to raise the ire of fans in places like Florida, Iowa, and USC who may feel like a one-loss team in a BCS conference is more deserving than a no-loss team from the WAC.
Sorry, Ivan Maisel. Boise State slipping into the BCS title game does not fix the BCS. If anything, it might make it worse.
Andy Staples - Butler nearly toppled Goliath; now Boise State can finish the job
Sports Illustrated's Andy Staples takes the questionable parts of Ivan Maisel's story and expounds on it to dizzying effect. His thesis: Butler struck a blow for the little guy and Boise State will pick up where the Bulldogs left off.
History and the odds suggest that if Boise State goes undefeated this season, the Broncos will take the field in the same stadium where, five years and nine days earlier, they ran the Statue of Liberty and shocked the college football world.
History? Boise State's run to a national championship would be unprecedented. Nothing like that has ever happened before in college football. Odds? The only odds that are in the Broncos' favor are that they keep getting passed over for big-time opportunities like BCS bowls (2008) and BCS bowls against BCS teams (2009).
Staples goes on to say:
To reach Monday night, the Bulldogs had to face Clemson and Ohio State in the regular season and then beat a No. 1 seed (Syracuse) and a No. 2 seed (Kansas State) in the NCAA tournament.
Not true. Butler did not have to face Clemson and Ohio State in the regular season in order to reach Monday night. All they had to do was win their conference tournament and then they would have controlled their own destiny in getting to the championship game. That is true of any team in NCAA basketball.
On the other hand, Boise State has to play (and beat) Virginia Tech and Oregon State in the regular season to even be considered in the conversation for a BCS title appearance.
Let's imagine we live in a perfect world and college football uses a 16-team playoff to decide a champion. Boise State's only good out-of-conference opponents (Virginia Tech and Oregon State) would be the football equivalents of a No. 3 and a No. 4 seed, respectively. Most of Boise State's WAC colleagues would get smoked by power-conference doormats, and the Broncos don't face the uncertainty of a conference tournament.
I'm not even sure what point he is trying to make here. If there is a 16-team playoff in CFB, then the WAC regular season champion would get an automatic bid. If Boise State cannot win a regular season title in the WAC, then they don't deserve to play for a national championship.
Overall, Staples' point about Butler starting what Boise State will finish rings hollow. The comparisons of little guys sticking it to big guys don't work because in college football you have to be a big guy to even have a chance at sticking it to a big guy. Boise State has done a lot to earn that distinction, but unlike the Bulldogs, the Broncos' fate is not entirely in their hands.
Team Speed Kills - Butler may not be the only mid-major to play for a title this year and The reality check on Boise State
SB Nation's SEC blog, Team Speed Kills, had a discussion with itself over the merits of Boise State getting to the national championship game, a la Butler. From a writing perspective, top-notch. From a Boise State fan's perspective, a mixed bag.
No matter what the national sentiment is, I highly doubt that Boise State is going to play for it all if there are two undefeated major conference teams available. That's what the Broncos have to root for: no more than one AQ conference team matching their unblemished record.
Therein lies one of the greatest problems with the Boise State - Butler comparisons: The Broncos do not control what happens. Very un-Butler-like if you ask me.
Until and unless Boise State schedules good teams (AQ conference and high end MWC squads) in all four or five of its non-conference slots, it's going to have little room to complain about being left out of the national title game.
Sure it sucks that the WAC is terrible and the Pac-10 won't send the Broncos an invite. That's out of BSU's control.
The sentiment shared here is one that gets tossed around a lot for the Broncos. Why don't they schedule tougher teams? And while that is mostly a conversation for another time, let me just say that you are close to crossing the line to an expressly tiered CFB once you start having a double standard with scheduling expectations between BCS and non-BCS schools. Also, no one wants to play the Broncos.
Boise State can always be fresh for its one to three big games each season because it's not getting beat up as badly on a weekly basis.
This has little to do with the Butler - Boise State comparisons, but I just thought I should point out that the Broncos' three toughest games in 2010 are back-to-back-to-back to start the year.
Pete Futiak and the CFN guys - Butler's run and a college football playoff
Futiak and friends collaborated on an article sharing different sides to this discussion. Futiak's take? Sensible, followed by irrational.
First of all, please, please, PLEASE don’t pay attention to anyone who tries to equate Butler’s rise up and run to the national title game with anything Boise State has accomplished in football. That appears to be the lazy and easy comparison that some are trying to make now, but it doesn’t do Boise State justice.
Sensible Futiak is spot on when he points out that the Butler - Boise State comparisons are obvious, lazy journalism. While it may be easy pickings for a writer to tackle, the topic is really comparing apples to oranges. Futiak would go a step further and argue that making the comparison is offensive to the Broncos because BSU's sustained success in football is infinitely more difficult than Butler's basketball hot streak.
If he had stopped there, he would have had me. Unfortunately, he went on.
While the BCS is bizarre and needs to be used as a tool that leads and helps determine a fair and just playoff system, in the end, there hasn’t been a totally undeserving fluke holding up the crystal trophy since the poll ‘n’ bowl system was ditched.
There is nothing wrong with what he says ... except that he didn't say enough. The BCS does a good job of finding a team that is worthy of a national championship. That is not the problem. The problem is that the BCS does not provide a fair shake for other schools who are deserving of a national championship.
Futiak's friend Richard Cirminiello centered his argument on the sanctity of the regular season.
Again, taking nothing away from Butler, I’m not exactly in favor of crowning a team that got hot at the right time, caught a break or two along the way, and won five or six straight games. Compelling, yes, but it sort of diminishes the importance of the regular season, doesn’t it?
Funny. Ridiculing the WAC, forgetting the Oregon win ever happened, and back-loading BCS schedules with conference championship games kind of diminishes the importance of CFB's regular season, too. Am I right or am I right, Richard Criminiello?
The CFN family rounds out its take with Matt Zemek's perspective-laced look at how the BCS and March Madness have fared in crowning champs over the last decade. Turns out, CBB may get it right more often than CFB.
What we’re left with is a lot of even results that, in light of football’s national title game controversies (the teams that never got to contest a crown – Miami in the 2001 Orange Bowl; Oregon in the 2002 Rose Bowl; USC and LSU in a 2004 plus-one which never existed; Auburn in the 2005 Orange Bowl; Michigan in the 2007 BCS Championship Game; Texas in the 2009 BCS title game; TCU in the 2010 BCS title game, Boise State in a plus-one with Alabama), give basketball an edge on the very terms football proponents use to claim that pigskin produces elite champions more frequently.
In summary,
- If anything, Butler is the Boise State of basketball and not the other way around.
- The Butler - Boise State comparison is tenuous at best, especially when you consider the apples-to-oranges nature of any discussion between CFB and CBB.
- A Boise State national championship win will not validate the BCS. Please do not go telling your friends this.
- Assuming that Boise State has earned the same equal opportunity to crash the NC party as Butler has is short-sighted and incomplete. BSU's title game appearance hinges on factors it cannot control (polls, undefeated BCS conference champions, etc.).
Will Leon Rice get Bronco basketball back to the Big Dance?
The Broncos' new coaching hire appears to be a hit. Coming over from Gonzaga, Rice has as much cachet as any coach from any other BCS conference school short of North Carolina or Duke. He has made some stellar assistant-coaching hires. He has attempted to patch things up with future Bronco star Ben Mills.
If Leon Rice turns out to be the Chris Petersen of college basketball, Boise State will be in great shape.
Also helping the Broncos be in great shape is this: Three of its best players return next season and the Broncos will field a starting five high on experience. Those who are back in 2010:
- F Daequon Montreal - the only Bronco player to make an all-conference team
- F Robert Arnold - the Broncos' best player down the stretch
- G La'Shard Anderson
- F Paul Noonan
- G Westly Perryman
- G Justin Salzwedel
- C Zack Moritz
The majority of the above players will be seniors in 2010, meaning that the Broncos could turn in a great season in Rice's first year at the helm.
Do you think that Boise State has what it takes to win the WAC and get back to the NCAA Tournament?
OBNUG Tournament Pick 'Em wrap-up
A wild, upset-filled NCAA Tourney left carnage and embarrassment in its wake. It turns out the key to victory: Only watching two games all year.
 |
||
| 1 | Watched 2 Games All Year, M. Kingery | 1280 |
| 2 | bdell27 1, b. wardell | 1250 |
| 3 | the collinator, C. Zenor | 1200 |
| 4 | 7398Jacob 1, J. Hammond | 1140 |
| 5 | NLeonard533 3, N. Leonard | 1130 |
| 6 | I'm feeling jambly, J. Thayer | 1120 |
| 7 | How many picks can u have, T. Dalling | 1110 |
| 8 | I'm Rocking On Yr Dime, J. Shelton | 1040 |
| 9 | JRig, J. Rigby | 1000 |
| 10 | In the Peach Basket, z. price | 940 |
Updated 4/6 8:00 a.m.
Complete standings
Congratulations to M. Kingery, who correctly picked Duke as his national champion and who successfully avoided taking Gonzaga too far or leaning on me and Drew for advice. Kingery picked five of the Elite Eight and two of the Final Four to finish with a flurry. Condolences to bdell27 and the collinator for brackets that fell just short.
Speaking of brackets falling short, mine did when Georgetown, my national champion of choice, was knocked out in the first round. I finished a laughable 167th, and Drew finished a slightly worse 171st. But really, who's counting after No. 150?
Don't you all feel good knowing you get your Bronco news from a couple of guys who bomb so badly in picking winners?
Your turn
What do you make of the Butler - Boise State comparisons? Think the Broncos are poised for a Tourney run in 2011? Have a fun story to share about OBNUG's Tournament Pick 'Em? Let's hear it in the comments.
31 comments
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Comments
Well done
Once again, another very well written article. Why even compare Boise State to Butler? Is it because no one writes about the college baseball season? Or is it really that easy a topic to exploit?
If college football had a playoff (like it should) then I could totally understand the comparison. But since basketball and football are totally different in the NCAA, why even compare the two unless you are making an argument for one sport to be like the other?
I really, really hate to say this, but if BSU were to win the finish undefeated, go the the national championship game, and win, it would validate the BCS. Too many people would claim, “See, the BCS really works. BSU went undefeated and won the title game. Our system really allows the little guy a chance.”
Side note on the NCAA Tournament Challenge. This is how much I know about college basketball. I filled out two brackets, one when the came out on Sunday, and the other by Wednesday after I “researched” the teams. Both of my brackets finished dead even on ESPN. I finished in 62nd place, not that anyone care….
"All we can do is win the games on our schedule" - Coach Pete
by givemesomemoore on Apr 7, 2010 8:40 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
A loss more than a win.
I think the BCS would still have questions if Boise won a national title. It took Boise how many years with near-perfect records to get into this position (assuming that this position would ever be given, which I am not)? All players from the 2007 Fiesta Bowl are gone (except Halloween @ PF Chang’s where Zabransky gets to wear his old jersey). A national title system should not require a program perform near perfect in recruiting, solidifying, architectural growth of the program for 5-10 years just to get into a title game someday. Boise State is incredibly fortunate to have the success it has created. I give any programs chances at the success the Broncos are having as 10^6:1. The only true way to get your team in (AQ or non-AQ) is by campaigning it. Coach Pete won’t do that, so now the media is in way-too-early pre-season talk (be assured, this talk will chance by the start of the season and DEFinitely by the end of November).
However, if you get Boise in the title game and they lose?! Then the BCS will claim that they never should have been there in the first place.
"Everyone counted us out. I don't know why they keep doing that." -- Kyle Wilson
by Loque on Apr 7, 2010 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
True
Until the NC in college football is rewarded based on a single season’s achievements without excluding anyone, the BCS cannot be validated.
Maybe not to us...
The BCS won’t be validated to BSU fans. The problem is that those in power aren’t changing anything without BSU winning a championship. They are definitely going to crutch on BSU’s title for years, and it really just gives them ammo. What you or I think about the BCS really doesn’t matter.
Old enough to know better, too young to care.
In 2011, it will have been 4 years 5 days; but good points
MUNSON’S DIVINE TAKE ON THE MATTER:ALL GOOD, but some better. First of all, we have to run table. Big order, and if we don’t all is moot. But if we do, here are the scenarios. If we get in NCS, great and greater. But if we don’t things get interesting. It will mean there were either 2 undefeated teams ranked ahead of us by virtue of conference strength or we got totally jobbed by allowing a 1-loss into the NCS. Major short stroking either way IMO, and we get more mojo. I know I know-we want NCS. I want NCS. But “buzz” counts and if we run the table we’ll generate great big gobs of it no matter how it plays out. The Statesman article today points out that several Butler players were not cresfallen at the loss- they proved they were more than worthy. College football just doesnt fit the playoff system guys. Miller from Montana hints at what I’m suggesting: he sadi every year Broncos are in BCS. Not really, but that’s all he hears. So we’ll either dance at the ball or piss in th epunchbowl-eithe rway they’ll be talking. First and only rule of marketing:get my name right. And college football IS marketing(as is football generally-see description of Kyle Wilson’s pro-day performance. Did everything but quote the commodity futures price on his body fat.)
tvmunson
My View
I see it the same way as our resident pick’em expert, Kevan Lee.
Lots of good points posted in the comment section as well.
Mr. Fiskers must either be on vacation or deemed this subject “light work” to let Kevan have a shot at it.
BSU don't need smoke and mirrors to get the job done, they got orange pants.
As for being "fresh"
we went into TCU game with a lot of good guys out; TCU had none(CB ultimately played). We are talented, deep.
tvmunson
My opinion, man
You guys have pretty much covered anything I might say about the Butler-Boise State comparisons. The only thing the two schools really have in common is they are both “mid-majors.” But because of the two different systems they operate under, like Kevan said, it’s apples and oranges.
As far as basketball goes, I’m super excited about Leon Rice. As Bronco fans I think we forget that the basketball team is not horrible, they’re just mediocre. With the success of the football team, we as Bronco Nation, tend to look at mediocrity as horrible. The team is talented and they’re returning a lot of starters. If Rice is as good as coach as we all expect him to be,there’s no reason to think the basketball team won’t be competing for a top seed going into the WAC tournament next year.
"Hell, I can get you a toe by 3 o'clock this afternoon... with nail polish."
by JRig on Apr 7, 2010 12:04 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Right as always DR.J right as always
I saw Broncos 5 or 6 times last year and it seemed with each game they got more “workmanlike” in the worst sense of the term. Like a union with a 15 year guaranteed government project, they showed up, did what they were hried to do with no soul or heart, seemed to have the “that’s not my job”(R I P Freddie Prinze) attitude. Price-am I getting too mystical or can you already feel it. I guess I’ll feel a cold wind at my back IF he can’t land this 7 foot kid-I mean if he can’t out charisma Graham, …? Maybe the kid just wanted out of Boise State. Anyway Price gives off sparks.
tvmunson
Our charisma Graham?
I used to watch re-runs of Coach Graham on Sunday Sports Extra just to fall asleep. Seriously though, it would be great to have a true 7 footer.
"Hell, I can get you a toe by 3 o'clock this afternoon... with nail polish."
It's All About The Money
Excellent take, Kevan. Very well thought out and written.
My take is that football and basketball are very different as far as the influence of money.
To build a basketball program worthy of the NCAA Tournament for a shot at the NC is a lot less expensive than building a football program for a shot at the NC. No mid-major can compete in those areas in football vs. the big BCS schools. I’ll bet Ohio State (for one) has a larger athletic budget than the entire WAC.
No sir. I like our lot in life. We’re respected and feared. We’ve been to the show twice and won. Boise is on the football map and trending higher.
Now, if by some miracle the Broncs win out and they let us play in the NC game…
“And David put his hand in his bag and took out a stone and slung it…”
And that's another Bronco... FIRST DOWN!!
by FirstDown on Apr 7, 2010 1:04 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
It has always seemed totally illogical, and indeed is historically anomalous,
that the Broncos can field a nat’l power football team but not basketball. Our b-ball facility is nice and compares well to others. At least it compare better than our stadium, whcih flat out doesn’t. Your remark about cost is condign and apposite; you’d think we’d lack the $ to be competitive at football, but we are.
tvmunson
Well. We're The Best "Pound-For-Pound" Money Wise...
And that’s a true story, friend. Keep pounding those keyboards tmunson.
And that's another Bronco... FIRST DOWN!!
The main difference is that Butler was afforded the opportunity to settle it on the court. Not only have the Broncos not gotten the chance, they are, in my opinion, still a long way off from receiving any real chance.
Boise State has won more than 75% of their games since moving to D-I (Which makes them one of the all-time winningest D-I Teams by winning percentage). They’ve won more than 85% of their games in the last decade, and more than 95% since Coach Pete took over in 2006. Including 3 undefeated regular seasons in the last 4 years. And yet, not even a sniff of a National Title shot. I don’t think they’ll get a shot next season either. Sure, there will be talk. Just as TCU garnered a lot of talk and speculation this last season, only to be left out in the end.
Most of the articles you see about the Broncos almost have an arrogance about them. Giving respect and credit to the Broncos through gritting teeth, expecting them to fail. I’m sure Gene Wojiechowski has his “I told you so” piece on standby, given a loss.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.) Now also including Fort Worth, TX and coming soon this fall, Washington D.C.!
the only difference i see is your team is going to beat whoever they put in front of you.
hopefully “the ohio state university”.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Apr 7, 2010 1:53 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
You KNOW that Mr. Fiskers Hates OSU
So do I.
And I don’t mean Oregon State University or Oklahoma State University.
And that's another Bronco... FIRST DOWN!!
I can hear Musberger now...
His whimsical, forced extemporaneous gee golly common folk style that he’s made such an irritating living from. ‘And here come the Buckeyes, one of the storied programs in all of College Ball. Do the Broncos have enough kick in em’ to hold off the fleet footed Pryor? Does their offense have enough pop to produce points against this irascible Ohio State defense? We’re in for a dandy folks!’
by gooseycheeks on Apr 7, 2010 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Goose
You pegged Brent perfectly! Are you his great-great grandson?
A rec for you sir!
BSU don't need smoke and mirrors to get the job done, they got orange pants.
Pretty sure his great-great grandson...
would be about, what, 57 by now? If I remember correctly Lou Holtz and Brent Mustyburger actually fought on opposing sides during the battle of Shiloh.
check out speed kills. they have two article's on boise state's chances and if they deserve the chance.
it is an sec blog but they are fair. just be respectful and they will let you post your side of the equation.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Apr 7, 2010 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Butler-Boise is better than...
Butler-Fresno State baseball ‘08, That is probably a better comparison, but John Q. Public doesn’t know much about college baseball. I will take lazy journalism for free buzz on the Broncos.
Also, a thought popped in my head as I have been reading all of the comparison articles. Even if Boise loses a game this season (this is totally hypothetical), I still see Boise in Glendale next year. Boise could be the first one lose non-AQ in a BCS game.
I am really not trying to build too many expectations. If Boise does lose, I might make that lose feel 10 times worse.
I love the colors Orange and Blue. Go Broncos!!! Go Titans!!! BAD WORD Gators!!!
by TitanBronco on Apr 8, 2010 4:24 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Sorry Titan-I must respectfully disagree.
Our mojo is based on perfection, more’s the pity. I suppose a barely plausible scenario could have us losing to VT and still getting a BCS, but I seriously doubt it. I just don’t see a 1 loss non-AQ getting in. Once again our WAC schedule would work against us. Let’s be honest; look what it took last year to get in. I thought we were in whne Okl State lost; then it was another game. We lose-its over.
tvmunson
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