Turns out the Mountain West does not need Boise State after all
by Kevan Lee on Apr 26, 2010 7:55 AM PDT
in Boise State football
42 comments
In the small pond of conference expansion rumors, Boise State is almost always linked to joining the Mountain West Conference and forming a superconference of BCS busters. Well never mind on that one.
The BCS released its automatic qualifying qualifications last week, and it turns out that the Mountain West doesn't need Boise State after all. After the jump, find out where the MWC and WAC land in the BCS evaluations and see what the MWC needs to have happen to get in. Are the Broncos forever doomed to a life of underwhelming WAC competition? Let's discuss.
The BCS tries transparency on for a change
At the BCS meetings last week, executive director Bill Hancock released the formula for non-BCS conferences to become BCS conferences. Courtesy of SI's Andy Staples and his Hancock-to-English dictionary, the formula goes like this:
1. The conference must finish among the top six in a listing of the average of each conference's highest ranked team at the end of each regular season.
2. The conference must finish among the top six in a listing of the average computer rankings of every conference's full roster of teams at the end of each regular season.
3. The conference must accumulate a score of at least 50 percent of the highest ranking conference's score in the Adjusted Top-25 Performance Ranking, which measures how many teams each conference placed in the BCS top 25 and adjusts for conference size.
In layman's terms, that is...
- Have a team rank high in the final polls every season.
- Have every team in the conference play well year after year.
- Put enough teams in the Top 25 so that you can be remotely compared to the SEC.
You have questions, Jerry Palm has answers
Curious how the Mountain West performed according to these qualifications? Not even sure if you should bother asking about the WAC's performance? CollegeBCS.com guru Jerry Palm crunched the numbers.
| Highest average ranking | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big 12 | 1.5 |
| 1 | SEC | 1.5 |
| 3 | Mountain West | 5 |
| 4 | Pac-10 | 6 |
| 5 | Big East | 7.5 |
| 5 | WAC | 7.5 |
| 7 | Big Ten | 9 |
| 8 | ACC | 11.5 |
| Conference strength average | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEC | 38.63 |
| 2 | ACC | 40.34 |
| 3 | Big East | 42.69 |
| 4 | Big 12 | 46.38 |
| 5 | Pac-10 | 49.85 |
| 6 | Big Ten | 50.91 |
| 7 | Mountain West | 58.61 |
| 8 | WAC | 72.28 |
| Top 25 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEC | 22 | 100 percent |
| 2 | Big Ten | 20.25 | 92 percent |
| 3 | Big 12 | 20 | 90.9 percent |
| 3 | MWC | 20 | 90.9 percent |
| 5 | Pac-10 | 15.75 | 71.6 percent |
| 6 | Big East | 15 | 68.2 percent |
| 7 | ACC | 12 | 54.5 percent |
| 8 | WAC | 8.75 | 39.8 percent |
Note: Remember, for automatic qualification, the conference must finish in the Top 6 of the first two categories and with at least 50 percent of the third one. Also, current BCS conferences cannot lose their automatic bids because that would make way too much sense.
The Mountain West comes up aces on two out of the three qualifications for automatic BCS berths, but the overall conference strength is lacking. Much like the WAC, the MWC just needs its awful teams to be less awful. The WAC on the other hand needs its awful teams to be less awful and for someone in addition to Boise State to be ranked in the Top 25. Pat Hill, I'm looking at you.
Why the Mountain West does not need Boise State
The previous way of thinking was that the MWC needed Boise State in order to add BCS bowl appearances, Top 25 rankings, and an embarrassment of winning percentage riches to its portfolio. Combine Boise State's success with the impressive results from Utah and TCU and the annual above averageness of BYU and Air Force, and you would have a conference that could easily rival the ACC or Big East. Well, not so much.
Turns out, the only thing holding the MWC back is the bottom half of the conference, and unless commission Craig Thompson is open to separating chaff from wheat (someone asked and he's not), Boise State cannot help. The suckiness of New Mexico is too deep.
The Mountain West is seventh in the conference-average category at 58.6. The Big Ten is sixth at 50.9. That’s a big gap. Adding Boise State would cut the league average to 53.5 — still not enough to crack the top six.
Chadd Cripe spent a good evening poring over the qualification numbers, and his conclusion: The Mountain West will need to apply for an exemption and Boise State would make some pretty good eye candy.
Exemptions are subject to approval from a committee of university presidents, many of whom have financial reasons not to let anyone else in. Adding Boise State might make the MWC look like it's trying its best, but even then there is no guarantee that the committee would approve.
Brian Murphy has a much more glass-half-empty approach. His column in the Idaho Statesman lists three reasons why Boise State's time has just about run out on getting into the Mountain West. In addition to the fact that BSU doesn't help the Mountain West's qualification numbers, Murphy also lists the short-term payoff of only getting the auto-bid in 2013 and 2014 (evaluation period begins anew this year) and the giant elephant of big-time conference expansion.
Emo Murphy is sad.
Circle your calendars for September 1
First off, it is Barry Gibb's 64th birthday.
Secondly, it's the cut-off date for the Mountain West to invite Boise State in order for BSU's resume to count on the current BCS evaluation period.
Your turn
How likely do you think Boise State's chances are of moving to the Mountain West? Surprised at how the WAC did in the conference evaluations? Wish the BCS would just go away? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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I still think that they need Boise State. Haha, and not just because I would love ot see Boise in the Mtn. West.
Even though adding Boise, as of right now, won’t bump the numbers quite high enough, there is still this year. Boise has a Nat. Title shot. I believe TCU will be very good again. And I wouldn’t count Utah and BYU out of the Top 25. This season, with Boise State’s numbers, may very well push the numbers to where they need to be.
And yes, Boise makes very good eye candy. Better than any other team in the Mtn West anyway…
by Dustin Peterson on Apr 26, 2010 8:38 AM PDT reply actions
yup
it would make league in upper half of AQ leagues.
by Jeremy Mauss on Apr 26, 2010 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions
OOh you're a Holiday
Such a holiday
OOh its a funny game
dont believe that its all the same
Cant think what I’ve just said
Put the soft pillow on my head
Millions of eyes can see
yet why am I so blind
when the someone else is me
Its unkind, its unkind
(ref The Bee Gees “Holiday” circa 1967)
tvmunson
trust me, i want boise state just to be sure.
it only takes one team from the pac-ten to say no and utah does not go. i could see stanford saying no b/c they would think utah is not up to their academic standards and i can see usc saying no b/c if they run the table they will goto the bcs ncg regardless b/c of tradition and california’s population. i do indeed hope they reject utah and we stay in the mwc b/c beating the pac-ten head to head is bettter than joining the bastards. plus boise state has proven they can beat any pac-ten team. as a mwc fan i invite you guys as of today. lol.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood". Hell is just a word, the reality is much much worse." Event Horizon". Now remember, when things look bad and it looks like you're not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean, I mean plumb, mad dog mean. cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live or win. That's just the way it is. "The Outlaw Josey Wales".
by wolfmanshowlforever on Apr 26, 2010 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions
i don't have any say so. i'm just a person who posts on alot of blogs.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood". Hell is just a word, the reality is much much worse." Event Horizon". Now remember, when things look bad and it looks like you're not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean, I mean plumb, mad dog mean. cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live or win. That's just the way it is. "The Outlaw Josey Wales".
by wolfmanshowlforever on Apr 26, 2010 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Got news for Stanford-Pac 10 ins tup to you racademic standards
thsi si athletics not College Bowl(late 50’s early 60’s tv show kids)
tvmunson
Ooh munson'd up and a particularly bad one to do it to
Stanford rest of Pac 10 is not up to your academic standards but we need more than 2,000 or so people to run this (bw) country. Lighten up-this is sports, not College Bowl.
NOTE: I was speaking in tongues, where the blessed one speaks in the ancient argot and later the translation is given by one of the faithful O OBNUG
tvmunson
Now understood.
Rec’d for tongue speaking and overall OBUGery.
Obviously you're not a golfer...
by ty_ol on Apr 26, 2010 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
amen.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood". Hell is just a word, the reality is much much worse." Event Horizon". Now remember, when things look bad and it looks like you're not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean, I mean plumb, mad dog mean. cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live or win. That's just the way it is. "The Outlaw Josey Wales".
by wolfmanshowlforever on Apr 26, 2010 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Barry Gibbs for WAC Commissioner!!
As long as we can replace Karl Benson with Barry Gibbs, Boise State should be fine.
I’ve got a degree from the streets of Melbourne, Australia. So help me God, I have a buck knife in my shoe. I will split you open like a soft shelled crab and wear your carcass like a raincoat.
That’s some funny stuff.
by forum8usa on Apr 26, 2010 9:44 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Yea, Thanks For Applying But...
Here’s the most important paragraph in the article:
“Exemptions are subject to approval from a committee of university presidents, many of whom have financial reasons not to let anyone else in. Adding Boise State might make the MWC look like it’s trying its best, but even then there is no guarantee that the committee would approve.”
Why would the Big 6 agree to grant membership which would then force them to split the pie 7 ways instead of 6. I know I only went to public school but: 1/6 > 1/7. Those “financial reasons” are all they care about. I think we sometimes get caught up in thinking these people have competition at the forefront of their agenda. WRONG. It’s money, money and more money.
All this posturing by the Mtn West is nice, and I do wish they would add Boise, but in the end it doesn’t matter. A BCS invite isn’t happening.
Wow, I’ve become such a pessimist.
by MooreWalksOnWater on Apr 26, 2010 9:52 AM PDT via mobile reply actions 1 recs
Maybe MWC would add Boise State and drop them if AQ does not happen
Conferences have the ability to drop schools too.
I wonder if the MWC and Boise State have talked about this possibility:
- We’ll add you for 2 years.
- If we don’t get an AQ, we’ll drop you.
- We’ll be upfront with everyone about this ahead of time.
If they did this, I guess the big loser would be the WAC.
It’s possible the WAC might refuse to accept Boise State back into its fold were things not to work out with the MWC, but I doubt it.
I’m stretching quite a bit here, but you never know… Thoughts?
"The question is not, 'Can they reason?' nor, 'Can they talk?' but rather, 'Can they suffer?'" - Jeremy Bentham
by Please Spay and Neuter Your Pets on Apr 26, 2010 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Mountain West fatigue..
I used to be pretty fired up about the MWC. I’m kind of sick of them and don’t think it is probably going to happen at this point. Now, I just hope for Armageddon for them, like the BIg 10(11) adding at least Missou, Colorado and Utah to the Pac, BYU and TCU to replace the Big-12 losses. The MWC comes crawling to BSU at that point, and probably Fresno and UNR too, and they way, "no thanks, but we will take New Mexico, SDSU and UNLV to get to 12. Craig Thompson is out of a job, Karl Benson has his final revenge, Air Force is independent, and Wyoming and CSU are screwed. I guess I would be okay if La Tech was able to get to Conference USA in the process, and the WAC ended up with UTEP again or Wyoming to have 12.
It is probably as like for the MWC not to exist as it is for BSU to get invited, unless the BCS makes it conditional for auto bid status to invite BSU. I guess that is a possibility, because if you fold BSU into the MWC (alphabet soup here), you reduce the “have nots” autobid factor. You are giving out seven bids, but it is unlikely you also have to give another “have not” a bid. If they let the MWC have an auto bid without BSU, there might only be 2 at large spots left, if BSU qualifies.
by rjohnson_jl on Apr 26, 2010 10:28 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I'm fatigued too.
I feel we’re getting it like Bobby in “Deliverance”- “Just take ’em right off!”-da da ding da ding da ding da ding.
tvmunson
Right, but if they’re smart they’ll see that adding Boise, TCU, Utah, and BYU to the competition will only increase the money flow. Especially since their recruiting is doing nothing but improving. It would only make things better.
by Dustin Peterson on Apr 26, 2010 10:30 AM PDT reply actions
They will get the invite this summer!
How do I know this? Well, I have a friend who has a friend who knows Craig Thompson’s brother in law and he said….Ok, I just believe it is in the MWC’s best interest to add Boise State if they are serious about growth. It legitimizes them in the only sport that really matters, and leaves them with a “big player” when their teams start getting plucked. Boise State will be the key player when expansion does happen, better to have them in your corner. The conference that has Boise on board will continue to be a conference when the dust settles. It would then be like trading the WAC bottom for the MWC bottom. Yes please….
The truth is BSU does not need the MWC
If the goal is to go to the BCS and have a shot at the national title, Boise State has already shown they do not need to change conferences.
The fans want the change because the matchups will be better, but something tells Mr Bleymeier is okay if things stay the same.
"...east and west is the problem, north and south the solution."
by MKingery on Apr 26, 2010 11:58 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Agreed
I don’t think BSU needs the MWC at all. I can see potential advantages, but I don’t know that those advantages would outweigh the potential negatives. Though I’m not sure what Bleymeier thinks. In the past he was very outspoken about want to be invited into the MWC, but he has been very quiet on that front for a while. I’d be interested as to what his current thoughts are
"All we can do is win the games on our schedule" - Coach Pete
by givemesomemoore on Apr 26, 2010 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Ditto - MWC may not be best for BSU
Think about it…
Boise State plays in a relatively easy conference. Our opponents (except for Hawaii and LaTech) are close enough for fans to travel – considering we play in the West.
Boise State has earned enough cred that it can:
- Schedule a few “Big Boys” each season
- Raise dollars for expansion, etc.
- Have a legitimate chance at a NC game if it runs the table each year
- Get a BCS invite on a regular basis
I don’t know… I like where we sit. Being in the MWC would be nice, but it would also be tougher. I guess the question is – would you rather be a Big Fish in a Small Pond (with the chance to play a few other Big Fishes each year), or a Big Fish in a Medium Pond.
Being a Big Fish in a Medium Pond may not earn us the cred we desire anyhow. I mean, look at the Big East. Who takes them seriously anyhow? Just because you’re an AQ does not give you cred. Winning gives you cred.
Just my thoughts…
"The question is not, 'Can they reason?' nor, 'Can they talk?' but rather, 'Can they suffer?'" - Jeremy Bentham
by Please Spay and Neuter Your Pets on Apr 26, 2010 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Plus, there's ESPN Contract
This should not be underestimated!
"The question is not, 'Can they reason?' nor, 'Can they talk?' but rather, 'Can they suffer?'" - Jeremy Bentham
by Please Spay and Neuter Your Pets on Apr 26, 2010 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions
The secret is out.
BSU is in the sweet spot.
WAC provides plenty of opportunity to play in BCS games and maybe the NC game.
What more could we ask for? If all you want is respect in the bars then buy a round of drinks for everyone.
Why change conferences? Name one good reason?
by BSU Alumni stranded in Portland on Apr 27, 2010 5:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Value of season tickets.
…over 50% of our games are BORING
"Everyone counted us out. I don't know why they keep doing that." -- Kyle Wilson
I'm skeptical
I used to be really excited about the idea of getting into the MWC, now I’m not so sure. If Boise State goes to the MWC and the MWC doesn’t get an auto BCS bid and conferences expand, Boise State is left in an even crappier situation. I really hate all this conference expansion debate, probably because everyone assumes the Broncos are going to be left out (it seems like everything in college football tries to drag the Brocnos down recently). If even just Utah and TCU leave, all that leaves is BYU and they might even be gone. Crappy conference and a crappier TV contract, the idea of staying in the WAC is really growing on me.
Quick side note on conference expansion; why does everyone assume the BIG 12 is going to get raided and disappear in this idea of super conferences? What if the BIG 12 jumped the gun and expanded to 16 teams? I think that would be awesome to see their conference commissioner expand before his conference get raided.
"All we can do is win the games on our schedule" - Coach Pete
by givemesomemoore on Apr 26, 2010 11:59 AM PDT reply actions
The MWC will invite BSU to Hedge it's Bets
I predict we get an invite to the MWC, but not because they think that BSU will help their auto BCS qualifying status…we get the invite because the MWC needs to hedge against their entire conference collasping when conferences like the PAC 10, Big 12, and Big 10 come to cherry pick their top teams. If BYU, Utah, and TCU leave…MWC will be in all out war against the WAC, scrambling to take the WAC’s best teams. One way the MWC could fire the first shot is to invite BSU, Fresno, and Nevada. That would guarantee the MWC’s superioty over the WAC; even if BYU, Utah, and TCU fly the coop. If the MWC doesn’t hedge their bets they could lose Air Force, UNLV, and Wyoming back to WAC. Benson would do everything in his power to get some of the old WAC teams back; even luring them with the WAC’s ESPN coverage etc….Thompson knows this and will take defensive measures.
With conferences expanding or planning to expand all around us, I would be really surprised if we do not get an invite to the MWC. If the PAC 10 expands to 12 teams the general consensus is that they would take BYU and Utah; the Big 10 could take a Big 12 team causing the Big 12 (TCU’s dream conference) to add TCU…or the Big 10 could decide to invite TCU.
The MWC upper tier teams (i.e. BYU, Utah, and TCU) are on some BCS conferences short list of expansion teams…I believe that the MWC commissioner is going to feel the pressure at the possibility of having their conference strip-mined for talent (much like they did to the WAC…karma?); I believe that this will force them to add BSU in order to have another talented team in place while they brace for teams that could bailout of the MWC.
The real question is whether or not we would want to be in the MWC minus BYU, Utah, and/or TCU?…I say yes!
What will the numbers say if...
…the MWC invites BSU and CFSU?
…drops New Mexico (not really a market there, anyway, is it?) or Wyoming?
I’m interested.
"Everyone counted us out. I don't know why they keep doing that." -- Kyle Wilson
Dropping San Diego State and Adding BSU would give MWC an AQ
However, their commissioner has said dropping anyone is “a non-starter”. (see Murphy’s quote below)
The Mountain West, like its counterpart, the WAC, is currently being held back by its worst teams. Adding the Broncos and dropping San Diego State from its membership would do the trick, but Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson said in December that removing teams from the league is “a non-starter.”
"The question is not, 'Can they reason?' nor, 'Can they talk?' but rather, 'Can they suffer?'" - Jeremy Bentham
by Please Spay and Neuter Your Pets on Apr 26, 2010 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Sounds like Craig Thompson doesn’t want to “start” an AQ BCS conference.
"Everyone counted us out. I don't know why they keep doing that." -- Kyle Wilson
True, but at least he's protecting the Integrity of his conference
Were a commissioner to drop the worst-performing school for the immediate benefit of an AQ bid, every year the school at the bottom would be wondering if they were next. Such instability does not a good conference make.
Unless a school does something egregious to warrant its being “kicked out”, I agree with Mr. Thompson’s decision to protect all of its members. No matter the frustration for the rest of the conference members, it appears to be the right thing to do in the long-term.
"The question is not, 'Can they reason?' nor, 'Can they talk?' but rather, 'Can they suffer?'" - Jeremy Bentham
by Please Spay and Neuter Your Pets on Apr 26, 2010 8:37 PM PDT up reply actions
BSU should not jump ship to the mwc
A lot of BSU fans see the MWC as the so called promised land. Milk and honey spring forth from the ground and trumpet blast a fiery tune. The facts just don’t live up to the hype assuming that mwc does not go aq which adding boise does not do.
First mwc with out an aq bid means tougher games with less exposer. A Boise vs Utah show down would be epic battle of titans that no one would see. Boise because of the WAC deal with espn/ abc put us in prime-time. 6 nationally televised games. (7 if you count wyoming and cbs college sport, i don’t)
Two the MWC will become a shell of it self if the various conferences expand. Utah BYU along with colorado (big 12) are prime targets for an expanded pac 10.
Three not all change is good. With so much talent at the top of a mwc with no aq it would make it less likley for a team to be invited to a bcs bowl. If you had to battle utah tcu and byu you would be less likely to be undefeated. And a 1 loss non aq team would loses an invataion to a 2 loss aq school.
What about Boise State as an independent?
Just a thought.
A thought that might gain traction if the PAC 10 expands by taking Utah and Colorado and the Big 12 takes BYU to replace Colorado.
I could actually see the Big 10 taking a couple of Big 12 teams, making room for TCU and Boise State in the Big 12.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
Independent.
I think the big thing would be to have a TV contract with that… which nobody is going to pick up for lil Boise.
That’s just my thinking.
"Everyone counted us out. I don't know why they keep doing that." -- Kyle Wilson
Expand to 12
If adding BSU brings it down to 53.5, what would happen if they also added Fresno and Nevada/Houston? Those two teams would give the MWC a solid middle tier level of competition: Air Force, Fresno St, Nevada/Houston.
Hope it happens
Bronco football is about entertainment, heart, and desire. Not guaranteed wins. Watching Boise play other WAC teams is a lot like playing with those cups that have a ball attached with string…it’s better than nothing. Better to lose to a giant than to beat a midget. I hope Boise fans respect more than just the ability to trounce chumps each year…otherwise the SEC fans are right. AND I HATE THE SEC FANS!
by ThePhlipinSituation on Apr 27, 2010 3:26 PM PDT reply actions
Um....
Bronco football is about entertainment, heart, and desire…Not guaranteed wins. Better to lose to a giant than to beat a midget…I hope Boise fans respect more than just the ability to trounce chumps each year…
I think Gene Bleymaeir prefers guaranteed wins. That’s just my opinion. I know we’re playing VT and all this year but these guarantee games have been rare.
"Hell, I can get you a toe by 3 o'clock this afternoon... with nail polish."
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