BlogPoll Week Eleven Draft: How Far Should Utah Fall?

 

Predictably, human and computer voters alike fawned over TCU's dismantling of Utah over the weekend.  While it was a good win, breaking a long home winning streak for the Utes, this Utah team is no where near the elite team pundits are giving them credit for.  Once again the Broncos are jumped by TCU in the polls, but this time the taste is even more bitter than 2009.  Stewart Mandel promised that the writers would not doubt the Broncos again.  But it may be the computers that are a bigger stain on the BCS model.  Once again the computers show that there is too much emphasis on strength of schedule with moving up in the Peter Wolfe poll despite a 40 point loss and Alabama improving their overall standing in the composite BCS computer rankings, earning a bump from 15 to 11 with a loss to LSU.  According to one of the few mathematicians that will actually explain his formula, Boise State is the #1 team in the country.

Boise State and TCU clearly have two of the most dominant defenses in college football and to me are the clear cut top two teams.  Their resumes are very similar and it is difficult to understand why human voters have swayed from their original order of the two teams.  The teams are even when comparing common opponents, with a slight nod to Boise State holding Oregon State and Wyoming to fewer yards.  BSU also played Wyoming on the road and Carta-Samuels did not play in the game against the Horned Frogs.  Overall scoring margins look similar, but TCU has scored 24% of their points in the fourth quarter while Boise State has clearly shut it down during the final frame accounting for only 11% of their points.  As pointed out by Dr. Saturday there is no fair way to discern between the two teams.  Short of both teams ascending to the top spots in the BCS rankings and meeting in the National Championship, I suggest a matchup between Doug Martin and Tank Carder - Thunderdome style.  Two men enter, one man leave.

Oh yeah, there are 23 other teams ranked as well.  Follow the jump for this week's BlogPoll and state your case for who should be number one.

 

As in past weeks, a formula that gives teams credit for FBS wins of the opponents they beat and penalizes them for the losses of the teams they lost to is used as a starting point to arrange the order of the poll. Losing to an undefeated team is akin to beating a winless opponent. Teams are then rearranged by how impressive they looked that week. As the season progresses, there will be less movement and the formula will carry more weight. The prior week's poll is not considered, and there is no provision for margin of victory. 

After another slow start and 4th quarter blowout, Oregon remains at #3.  Eventually, they will meet a team with an offense that will capitalize on their lackluster first half performance.  Unfortunately, that will likely will not happen until the game in Glendale.

If the rest of the slate in the SEC does not catch up with Auburn, the recruitment of Cam Newton may be the demise of the Tigers.  Leave it to Les Miles to win an SEC Championship with thanks to vacated wins.

Moving Up:

 

Michigan State - Not sure why they jump so high, other than they are as good a candidate as any other one-loss team.

Mississippi State - Might be a little high, but the two teams that have beaten them have only one combined loss.

Oklahoma State - All of a sudden they are a favorite to go to a BCS Bowl.  With their only setback being a ten point loss on the road against one-loss Nebraska and remaining games against an inconsistent Texas team, Kansas and then Oklahoma at home, the Cowboys seem poised for a berth in the Big XII title game.


Moving Down:

 

Utah - They had risen in the polls over recent weeks simply due to attrition.  Another loss to the Irish this weekend would drop them completely out of the poll.

Missouri, Baylor, Oklahoma - The Big XII race becomes a mess as the division leaders fall.

 

Your Turn:

Weigh in on the Boise State and TCU debate.  Give your thoughts on how to rank the one-loss teams.  What is the most overrated team?  With your input the final poll will be submitted Wednesday morning.

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