OBNUG Week One BlogPoll: BYU Climbing, Irish with More to Prove

After Kevan's pseudo protest vote in the preseason BlogPoll, he has handed me the keys to the weekly OBNUG vote with one stipulation: that the University of Idaho not be included in anything ever. Not a problem, unless NMSU happens to crop up on the schedule several more times.

The BlogPoll is unique in that each voter submits two polls every week. The first rough draft will be posted every  Monday morning, and then the OBNUG community will be given the opportunity to mold the final poll that is due on Wednesday. As Kevan mentioned, I have developed a formula that I use to rank all 120 FBS teams, and I'll use it to come up with the poll each and every Monday.

The Broncos' placement in the week one poll, a BYU sighting in the Top Ten, and an explanation of my selection criteria after the jump.

The premise for my ranking formula is simple. In essence the goal is to reward teams for quality wins while minimizing the impact of a loss against a highly ranked opponent. The formula attempts to achieve these five goals:

  1. Complex enough to not be exploited, but simple enough to be understood by coaches, fans and the media.
  2. Encourage elite non-conference matchups. Don't penalize teams for losing to top ranked teams.
  3. Limited or no reward for playing patsies. No credit given for playing FCS teams.
  4. The stage of the season for a big win or big loss has no additional impact.
  5. Only wins and losses count. There is no influence accounted for prestige, tradition or past performance.

I am not a fan of preseason polls and every time I tried to fill out a Top 25, I would inevitably leave out a highly touted team. The process was not any easier after one week of play. Instead, I went through and "predicted" winners of every (769) FBS game for 2009 to see how the formula would work out. This is a flawed approach and would inherently include my personal bias on season outcomes, give greater advantage to home teams in 'pick-em' games, and result in very few upsets. Teams that I am not high on (Ohio St, Notre Dame, Mississippi) are ranked lower than the general consensus. Conversely, teams that I think might be a surprise, receive a favorable ranking (Michigan St, Kansas) when compared to other pollsters.

Here is the outcome of the initial poll following Saturday's games. To the delight of Dan Hawkins, the results of Sunday's and Monday's games are not reflected in the rough draft. Those games will be factored into the final poll that is submitted on Wednesday.

 

 

Rank Team Delta
1 Florida
2 Southern Cal 1
3 Texas 1
4 Alabama 2
5 Penn State 3
6 Virginia Tech 9
7 Brigham Young 18
8 Oklahoma 3
9 LSU
10 Boise State 1
11 Ohio State 2
12 Oklahoma State 4
13 Kansas
14 Georgia 1
15 Missouri 4
16 Michigan State 8
17 California
18 Georgia Tech 4
19 Mississippi 5
20 Oregon 10
21 North Carolina
22 Florida State 1
23 TCU 16
24 Oregon State 6
25 Utah 23
Last week's ballot

 

Dropped Out: Texas Tech (#12), Cincinnati (#17), Iowa (#20), West Virginia (#23).

Missed the Cut:  Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Arkansas


Boise State's future opponents didn't do the Broncos any favors this week. Only Bowling Green did much to help Boise State's strength of schedule.

Brigham Young is the big mover of the week and could be poised to challenge for a BCS game even if they lose one game along the way.

This is where the OBNUG community comes into play. The greatest strength that sets the BlogPoll apart from other rankings is the philosophy that every voter's ballot is to be transparent and that a second poll be submitted after input is received from the blog's readers.

Make your thoughts known in the comments.

  • Who's too high? Who's too low? Who was left out and should be added?
  • Does Bradford's shoulder injury diminish BYU's big win?
  • Should Notre Dame be ranked or do they need to prove it with a win against someone other than Nevada?
  • Is TCU too low? Their strength of schedule took a big hit when Virginia lost to William & Mary.
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