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Was the Fresno game Boise's toughest remaining game on the schedule?

The Broncos escaped Fresno with a win. Is that as tough as it gets for Boise State from here on out?

I'll weigh in with my take after the jump, but I want to hear what you think, too. Share your thoughts in the comments.

Star-divide

Contrary to popular belief, beating Fresno by 17 points is not the end of the world, especially when BYU loses to Florida State, Utah loses to Oregon, and TCU gets in a dogfight with Texas State. The Bulldogs might have been one of the toughest teams Boise State faces all season long.

What do you think? Who is tougher from here on out? Here are some thoughts from me.

Based on ranking/projection

The following team rankings use Sagarin and FEI.

  1. Tulsa 30 Sagarin 57 FEI
  2. Bowling Green 60 69
  3. Hawaii 66 80
  4. San Jose State 74 103
  5. Nevada 79 86
  6. LaTech 98 79
  7. Utah State 100 111
  8. Idaho 136 120
  9. UC Davis 152
  10. NMSU 187 119

I think that the WAC is heavily discounted in the rankings, and a conference game for the Broncos will not be as easy as a nonconference opponent taking on a WAC team (like Colorado State vs. Nevada, perhaps?). Still, Tulsa and Bowling Green are two of the Broncos' next three opponents, and Boise State has some stuff to work on.

At the same time, Tulsa got shutout this weekend, and Bowling Green lost to Marshall. So ... there's that to consider.

Based on running backs

Boise State struggled to tackle RB Ryan Mathews on Friday night. Here is a look at the teams with the best running backs that Boise State will face the rest of the season.

  1. Louisiana Tech: Daniel Porter
  2. Nevada: Vai Taua
  3. Idaho: DeMaundray Woolridge

There simply aren't many great running backs left on the Broncos' schedule. There are some good ones. There are not many really good ones.

Porter is probably the toughest, and Taua can be a handful. Woolridge is a stretch and doesn't have much of a body of work. The rest of the teams on the Broncos' schedule don't really have anyone of note.

Based on road games

Boise State looked disjointed on the road in Fresno. Here are the toughest road trips the Broncos have left.

  1. Tulsa
  2. Hawaii
  3. Louisiana Tech
  4. Bowling Green
  5. Utah State

Tulsa and Hawaii are really a toss up for me. The Warriors have looked decent this season and always seem to play tough at home. Tulsa is kind of an unknown for the Broncos. Louisiana Tech, which was thought to be a tough game this offseason, doesn't seem so daunting considering LaTech's slow start.

Based on pass rush

Kellen Moore had very little time to throw for most of the game. Here are pass rushes that pose the most trouble for BSU from here on out.

  1. Nevada
  2. San Jose State

Nevada's Dontay Moch and Kevin Basped get a lot of attention for not being the worst part of the Nevada defense. Those two are actually pretty good, and they managed to pressure Moore quite a bit last season when the two teams met.

San Jose State always brings a solid defense, especially its pass rush. One of the Ihenacho brothers has routinely been listed with the WAC's best

Based on record

  1. Tulsa 2-1
  2. Hawaii 2-1
  3. Idaho 2-1
  4. Bowling Green 1-2
  5. LaTech 1-2
  6. New Mexico State 1-2
  7. Nevada 0-2
  8. Utah State 0-2
  9. San Jose State 0-3

Idaho's 2-1 record is more a product of actually beating the terrible teams on their schedule, rather than being good. Still, 2-1 is 2-1, especially in Moscow. Bowling Green looked good in a loss to ranked Missouri. LaTech's only win was over a I-AA team, so too NMSU. The best looking 0-2 team might be Utah State, who hung with Utah and played Texas A&M to within one score. San Jose State, too, has looked better than its 0-3 record, and they should clean up on some easy WAC competition.

Based on preseason projections

  1. Nevada. Picked by some to upset the Broncos. Picked by crazy people as a darkhorse BCS contender.
  2. Tulsa. Thought to be one of the most exciting non-BCS teams.
  3. Louisiana Tech. Seen as much-improved, dangerous, and well-coached.

My final list of toughest remaining games

  1. Tulsa
  2. Hawaii
  3. Louisiana Tech
  4. Nevada
  5. San Jose State

What does your final list look like? Mine weighs heavily on tough road games. I think there is an aspect to playing on the road that helps level talent gaps between teams. I do believe that Fresno was the toughest opponent left on Boise State's schedule at this point. However, there are a handful of teams that could get hot by the time BSU plays them.

Who do you think will be toughest from here on out? Share your thoughts in the comments.

Comment 19 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Agreed and rec'd.

I couldn’t have put it better myself.

by CaptainBronco on Sep 20, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Consider this

I think our biggest hurdle isn’t who we play, but more where we play. In the next four of six games the Broncos travel to Ohio, Oklahoma, Hawaii, and Louisiana. That’s a lot of traveling in a short amount of time. Also, those are all teams that potentially play Boise State tough on the road.

If I had to put one team at the top of the list it’s Tulsa. I know they were shutout this weekend but they’re always capable of big plays. We all know how we feel when the opposing offense gets big plays on our defense.
Despite that, I’m still confident in our guys.

Watch out BCS...one day Boise State will be National Champs.

by JRig on Sep 20, 2009 3:45 PM PDT reply actions  

Toughest Remaining Games

1. Tulsa – Home field, high octane O, and “statement” game could be reasons enough.
2. Nevada – I know, I know. Just a hunch they will bring their best effort.
3. Hawaii – Always tough on the Island.
4. Louisiana Tech – Perfect trap game, if there is one.
5. Utah State – They have started playing good teams pretty tough.

  On the brighter side, now Boise State will be harder for opposing teams to prepare for. Nobody knows which Bronco team will show up.

by TitoRay on Sep 20, 2009 4:19 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Nice intuitive sense

TR has. The Island brings out the mammal; football belongs to our reptilian impulses (territoriality, aggression).Hard to play football when grass skirts, palm trees and mai tai’s beckon. LTech, on balance, brings the best athletes year in year out but execution and coaching are often issues(no tso with Bicknell and watch out). Can’t add to rest of comment but yoru last was particularly insightful-the upside of inconsistency(sounds like a movie with that Garafalo bitch).

by tmunson on Sep 21, 2009 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Idaho?!?

I think as long as we don’t pull a BYU (think we’re invincible because we’re ranked high and let a decent team like FSU come in and spank us…) We’re gonna be fine.

I really think that Tulsa will be the toughest game, with La tech and Utah St. being some more good games. The tough thing is that EVERY team that plays us is already preparing for the broncos! This is a marquee game that every team tries extra hard for! Sometimes it’s tough being the target!

Someday I hope to look in a mirror and see something special... something like a coach pete protoge'.

by BigBaloo on Sep 20, 2009 11:35 PM PDT reply actions  

What about Hawaii?

Think the Warriors will be easier than LT and USU?

"I eat success for breakfast - with skim milk!" - Tony Perkis

by Kevan Lee on Sep 21, 2009 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

checking

I’m still trying to rec correctly

by tmunson on Sep 21, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

 looking at the schedule for potential teams we could lose to it only seems possible that a road game could trip us up. Tulsa, Bowling Green, Hawaii, and La Tech. I don’t know much about bowling green, but la tech is the only school there with errr a good running back. I don’t see our secondary getting torched any time soon. But who knows, Akey’s army has a running back…. joking.

by KsigBronco on Sep 20, 2009 11:48 PM PDT reply actions  

Sagarain rankings? PLEASE

How can you seriously cite the Sagarin rankings? My lord man…….according to the current Sagarin rankings the # 1 team in the nation, that being Florida, is # 21 in the nation………..PLEASE……..the Sagarin rankings have long been known to be a joke.

by Bronco754 on Sep 21, 2009 12:04 PM PDT reply actions  

A better indicator than Sagarin

If you want a much better indicator of the status of college football I would suggest you forget all about Sagarin’s ridiculous rankings and go with this instead.

http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

by Bronco754 on Sep 21, 2009 12:07 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Are you saying to look to Massey's ratings instead...

or are you saying that the mean of the multitude of computer rankings out there are the best indicator?

What has Florida done, using this year’s data alone, in order for a computer to rate the Gators any higher than 21? The Sagarin ELO_CHESS formula, which is the one used by the BCS, has Florida at #36. Sagarin’s ratings have some quirks, but they are far from being a joke.

The only way for a computer ranking to have Florida #1 at this point in the season is with consideration of last year’s performance.

Most of the models listed on the compare page you linked are designed for gambling and used as predictors for wins and point spreads.

Massey’s formula that the BCS uses only includes results from 2009, and has Florida ranked at #55 – just below Division II Saginaw Valley at #54.

"...east and west is the problem, north and south the solution."

by MKingery on Sep 21, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I agree.

The only way Florida is ranked #1 is based on human perception. They have played nobody except Tennessee this year. I’m not a fan of Alabama, but in my opinion, they need to be ranked #1. They have actually played some good teams, next would be Texas, then Florida.

"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale

by Loque on Sep 21, 2009 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

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