Opponent preview: Will Oregon stifle the Bronco ground game again?
by Kevan Lee on Aug 31, 2009 11:08 AM PDT
in Boise State football
91 comments
The Duralog of Boise State good vibes that is still burning from last season's win over Oregon is just about finished. The warm fuzzies end Thursday night when a new chapter in the incredibly short, two-chapter book on Ducks vs. Broncos (tentatively titled: Quit hitting me: the Jeremiah Masoli story) is written.
Football is almost here, but it's not the same football that any other school in the country (except for maybe VaTech and Alabama) has been looking forward to. This game has huge ramifications for Boise State's BCS hopes. It has huge ramifications for LaGarrette Blount's MySpace friend requests. And there are about a billion different ways you can look at the matchup.
I've chosen one of the most overlooked, but one that I feel could become very important: Oregon's run defense. Let's talk about it, and feel free to add your most important factor in the comments.
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No. 16 Oregon at No. 14 Boise StateKickoff: 8:15MT, TV: ESPN, Radio: 580 KIDO Weather forecast: Mostly sunny, high of 90 during the day Spread: Boise State -5 |
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Starting Offense
| WR Jamere Holland | |
| WR Jeff Maehl | Leading returning wide receiver (39 recs, 421 yards) |
| WR Garrett Embry | |
| TE Ed Dickson | John Mackey Award watch list |
| LT Bo Thran | |
| LG Carson York | Redshirt freshman |
| C Jordan Holmes | |
| RG Mark Asper | 6'7", 323 pounds |
| RT C.E. Kaiser | Most returning experience on offensive line |
| QB Jeremiah Masoli | The consensus best QB in the Pac-10 |
| RB LeGarrette Blount | 7.3 average, 17 TDs in 2008 |
The Oregon offense is Jeremiah Masoli, for better or for worse. There are loads of talented skill players around him and a green offensive line in front of him, but Masoli is the heart of the Duck attack. If he is on his game, he is one of the best in the country. If he is on his back, then Ryan Winterswyk WIN!
Starting defense
| DE Will Tukuafu | Second-team PAC-10 in 2008 |
| DT Brandon Bair | |
| DT Blake Ferras | 6'6", 290 pounds |
| DE Kenny Rowe | |
| OLB Eddie Pleasant | |
| MLB Casey Matthews | Took over from starter John Bacon six games into 2008 season |
| OLB Spencer Paysinger | 95 tackles as redshirt freshman in 2008 |
| CB Walter Thurmond III | Jim Thorpe Award watch list |
| CB Talmadge Jackson III | |
| FS T.J. Ward | Preseason all-Pac-10 |
| ROV Javes Lewis |
There will be up to five first-timers on the Ducks' starting defense on Thursday, but that isn't to say that this unit is short on talent. A loaded linebacker corps is the meat, T.J. Ward is the special sauce, and veterans like Thurmond and Tukuafu are the bread that holds the whole thing together. Still, the sandwich seems to be missing something. Game experience, maybe?
Special teams
| P Jackson Rice | true freshman, making his first college start |
| K Morgan Flint | |
| KR Walter Thurmond III | |
| KR LaMichael James | Really fast and quick |
| PR Kenjon Barner |
This has nothing to do with special teams, but I thought I should mention Oregon's tazer players: LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner. The tazer is Oregon's answer to traditional football positions; it's an athlete who can make plays from anywhere. Get ready to hear this term about 20 times on the ESPN broadcast.
What happened last season
Boise State ran for 38 yards on 35 carries (1.1 average) with one touchdown and a long rush of eight.
Credit the Oregon defense for taking away the run and making Kellen Moore beat them. Credit Kellen Moore for beating them. Credit me for not injuring myself mid-fistpump. Credit Mike Bellotti for that immaculate goatee. And when you're done crediting people, know this: The Bronco offensive line really struggled moving Oregon defenders out of the way and creating holes for the backs. Was it a size/strength issue, similar TCU truck that hit the Broncos? Was it something wrong with the backs?
I'm siding with size and strength (or am I siding against it?). Boise State's O-line looked just fine protecting Kellen Moore on passing plays. The issue wasn't form or technique. It was owning the line of scrimmage that really went Oregon's way. Nothing shows this more than the statistics from Oregons' defensive line. Typically, linebackers lead the team in tackles, or when prolific passing offenses take to the air, players in the secondary get big tackle totals. Rarely do you see it happen along the defensive line.
However, Oregon's D-line really filled the stat box, with one player tying for team lead in tackles and another racking up an inordinate amount of tackles for loss. Combined, four members of Oregon's defensive line - Ra'Shon Harris, Will Tukuafu, Nick Reed, and Cole Linehan - recorded 26 tackles, six TFLs, and one sack. Incredible.
What has changed over the past 12 months
Attrition has struck both the Oregon D-line and the Boise State O-line. The Broncos lost all-conference G/T Andrew Woodruff and his bearded buddy John Gott. The Ducks graduated Reed, Linehan, and Harris, in addition to linebackers Jerome Boyd and John Bacon.
Reed is the most notable absence along the Oregon defensive front. He was an All-American last year, recording 13 sacks, 7 TFLs, and five FR, but his departure might not be the most important hole up front for the Ducks. Both defensive tackles, Linehan and Harris, are gone, leaving a big void for a rotation of JCs and others to fill. Blake Ferras leads a merry-go-round at the position that will sub in as many as four at defensive tackle. The Ducks replace Reed with inexperienced junior Kenny Rowe.
Boise State's O-line has a new look again, just as it did in virtually every game last season. The Broncos will start the year with first-timers Michael Ames and Will Lawrence in the lineup. The other three positions return experience from last year, including center stud Thomas Byrd. Kevin Sapien and Matt Slater are the other two starters, and Nate Potter might see the field in optimal false start packages.
Spotlight on: DE Will Tukuafu
via image.cdnl3.xosnetwork.com
Reed wasn't the biggest terror against the Broncos last season. It was Tukuafu, the JC transfer who recorded six solo tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and one sack against Boise State. He was a handful, in part because the Broncos paid a lot of attention to Nick Reed, and in part because the guy is just a stud.
Coming out of Scottsdale CC, Tukuafu was ranked as one of the two best DL JCs in the nation and reached as high as No. 7 overall on Rivals list of JC players. He was originally recruited by BYU, going so far as to sign a letter of intent with the school. He chose to take a two-year mission instead, and found himself on the CC route when he returned. Thanks to his time away, he is now listed as the oldest player on the Oregon roster at age 25.
His old man strength serves him well. At least, that's what I attribute his being able to sack Jake Locker one-handed.
Tukuafu, a team captain this season and the only returning starter on the defensive line, could be lined up often against Ames, playing in his first actual game in two years. How will Ames handle the new guy? Is Tukuafu's presence the reason why Tommy Gallarda was picked to start at TE against the Ducks? What will the coaching staff do to handle this matchup? I'd like to know your thoughts because none of mine end well.
Can Boise State beat Oregon without an effective running game?
Ah, one of the cruxes.
Well, the obvious answer last year was yes. Boise State would have done just as well letting Kellen Moore fall forward every time they called a running play, and still the Broncos built a 24-point lead and hung on for a win in Eugene. The running game was not needed to win. It would have been nice to have around, especially when BSU needed to salt away some time late in the game. It also might have helped Ian Johnson get drafted, but oh well.
The Broncos proved time and again that they didn't need the running game to be successful last year. But was that a product of their easy schedule? How many times out of 100 would the Broncos beat the Ducks by only running for one yard per carry?
It's nice to dwell on the win from last year, but this is not last year's Bronco team (or Duck team, for that matter). One of the most disconcerting parts of this discussion is that we don't know how the Broncos will perform this year. What do you think? Is the 2009 BSU team built to win without the running game?
The signs seem to say yes. Kellen Moore should be improved over last year, which is just an impossibly crazy idea. The Oregon secondary might be the team's biggest weakness, and with the Boise State's passing game being their biggest strength, well, I'll let you draw your own conclusions. Where the running game really makes its money is if the Broncos get a lead late in the game. As my friends at Football Outsiders love to point out, "You run when you win, you don't win when you run." Let me let them explain.
The first article ever written for Football Outsiders was devoted to debunking the myth of "establishing the run." There is no correlation whatsoever between giving your running backs a lot of carries early in the game and winning the game. Just running the ball is not going to help a team score; it has to run successfully.
In general, winning teams have a lot of carries because their running backs are running out the clock at the end of wins, not because they are running wild early in games.
Thoughts on this?
How will Oregon defend the Broncos
Of course, Oregon's run defense is not just limited to the four guys up front. The Ducks have a deep and talented linebacker trio as well with Spencer Paysinger, Casey Matthews, and Eddie Pleasant. These three players could be the key to making up for the inexperience along the defensive line.
Also, Oregon has the luxury of bringing in rover person Javes Lewis (and sometimes Marvin Johnson) to support the run from his quasi-safety position. At times, Boise State could see eight in the box. But will they?
Given how coolly Kellen Moore shred the Oregon defense last season, you have to wonder if the Ducks won't try to take away the pass and make the Broncos beat them on the ground. This will be fascinating to watch. Seriously, watch it. In the first couple series of the game, strategies should be clear, and you should be able to tell which direction these teams are going. Does Boise State have what it takes to fashion a successful running game off of a traditional seven-man front?
How will Boise State come out against the Ducks
The Broncos could come out with guns a-blazing, using the pass to set up the run. We saw in previous games last year that BSU is not afraid to completely abandon the run in favor of chewing up yards through the air. If it's not working, coaches seem to think, then why hammer it down.
In scrimmages this fall, the passing offense seemed to be a step ahead of the rushing O, and potential starter Jeremy Avery was absent from it all. He even slipped a little on the depth chart into 1A status slightly above 1B D.J. Harper. Both backs are very talented. But you have to wonder how much faith the Broncos have in their running game at this point.
Also, there is more than one way to run the ball. Boise State loves its flare passes and bubble screens that work as basically extended hand-offs. These often get just as many, if not more yards than actually running the ball. Boise State could use this extensively.
How do you think the Bronco running game is feeling at this point?
Other factors in the Oregon run defense debate
- Crowd noise. Running games tend to struggle on the road because they cannot hear the snap count and therefore lose that advantage. This won't be the case on Thursday night, provided I can shut up the "Whose House" guy at appropriate times.
- Backs that hit the hole. Not to say that Ian Johnson was a poor runner, but he definitely was better suited to run behind a line that allowed him to get up a head of steam. Avery and Harper can go from 0-60 in nothing flat, so that could be a factor in the run game.
- Misdirection and gadget plays. Boise State can keep defenses honest with many different looks. If the line wins individual battles, this can lead to big plays.
- Playing with a lead or coming from behind. Depending on which team is in which position, the running game could either be a huge focus or a superfluous afterthought.
- Richie Brockel. He's really good, and he could be lined up at fullback a lot more than we're used to seeing.
- Kellen Moore audibles. Will he be smart enough to check into a high-success running play? That was a stupid question. Forget I asked.
Are there some other factors that I overlooked or failed to mention?
The bazillion other factors that could determine the outcome of the game
The Oregon run defense is just one of a myriad of little battles that could mean win it or lose it for either team. Do you have a factor or matchup that you'll be watching? Here are some others I thought of off the top of my head.
- Special teams, and in particular, Kyle Wilson returning punts
- Oregon skill players LeGarrette Blount, LaMichael James - they're apparently fast and good
- Jeremiah Masoli vs. Boise State secondary - Will the game be won or lost here?
- Coaching - Advantage: the guy who has coached before
There are loads more. Which one are you looking at?
Conclusions
So many different things could happen on Thursday, rendering any one of these conclusions irrelevant or prophetic. I'm hoping for the latter.
Which of the following conclusions are you?
- Boise State's offensive line will dominate an inexperienced Oregon defensive line, the Broncos will control the line of scrimmage, and the running game will be a solid option for the fourth quarter
- Oregon's defensive line will overpower a young Boise State offensive line, the Ducks will control the line of scrimmage, and the Broncos will be forced to pass if they want to gain yards
- The Broncos and Ducks will exchange good plays, canceling out the impact of the running game, and putting the focus onto another big matchup
- Michael Ames will have a big game
- Michael Ames will have a bad game
- Will Tukuafu will have a big game
- Will Tukuafu will have a bad game
I'm just getting warmed up with conclusions, but I should probably stop there. How do you guys see this matchup playing out? Where on the scale of importance does it fall? What factors did I miss? What players should I have mentioned? And most importantly ...
.. are you ready to finally get this thing over with?
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I can't stop laughing
two-chapter book on Ducks vs. Broncos (tentatively titled: Quit hitting me: the Jeremiah Masoli story) is written.
Lizzing!
Proverbial ... ... ... Indeed!
by OBNUG Intern on Aug 31, 2009 11:26 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Pass.
Come on Spichemman. It’s a joke. Where’s your sense of humor?
Proverbial ... ... ... Indeed!
by OBNUG Intern on Aug 31, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Last year it seems that the Bronco staff had seen something on film and installed a gameplan with extensive play-action. Despite the Broncos’ inability to run the ball last year, play-action was effective throughout all four quarters.
Conversely Oregon appeared to be content to stop the run and take their chances with a freshman quarterback making his first start on the road. I would guess that their gameplan will differ drastically this year.
Oregon’s defense may not bite on play-action this year, but that should open up some more opportunities with the run game. I look for the Broncos to gain around 100 yards on the ground and continue to use receiver screens and short passess to supplement the ground attack.
I also look forward to Oregon being more prepared for pre-snap motion and potential mismatches. It is not likely we will see another receiver versus linebacker match-up. I am hoping BSU counters by using Avery/Harper in deeper receiving routes down the seam or via a wheel route.
"...he could have run for 500 yards if only the end zone hadn't kept getting in the way"
by MKingery on Aug 31, 2009 11:56 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
With 4.3 speed in the backfield ...
… it would make too much sense not to put those players in space and send them deep. Good point, MKingery.
So you expecting them to make the Broncos run? Take away the pass at all costs? It wouldn’t appear to me that they can afford to hang their secondary out to dry like they did last year. It’s just not as good.
"Never let anyone sign your checks!" - Harvey Bushkin
I expect them to play a little more straight-up instead of having emphasis to stuff the run. I also expect them to be more prepared for match-ups and shifts – maybe they play a little more zone or just do a better job of switching assignments pre-snap.
"...east and west is the problem, north and south the solution."
I expect the run game to be improved. Mainly because it won’t be hard to improve from last year. But in this game I think they will reach the 100 yard mark. I prefer it happen in the first half, but we’ll see. I think there will be some new wrinkles implemented early to keep Oregon on their toes. As MKingery mentioned, the Duck’s may not bite on the play-action. So expect Coach Pete to have something else that gets their attention early
(a la, Double reverse HB pass bubble screen option).
I do think Harsin will have a "stop us if you can’ approach in the passing game. As it was obvious last year they couldn’t. Titus may be asked to spread the field early with a big play giving room for the screens and a swing passes to be set up undermeath.
This is all a big guess. But knowing the history of BSU these last several seasons, one thing you can count on, There’s a few things they plan to do that Oregon hasn’t thought of.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
From an Oregon fan's perspective
You won’t get 38 on 35 this year, it’ll be better than that but you’re still going to have to beat us through the air. Unless Oregon turns the ball over a lot, my Ducks will score a lot of points and the only way to keep up will be passing.
Our entire secondary is basically new and although I feel good about them, you never know.
"Good evening Blazer fans, wherever you may be!"-Bill Schonely
Thurmond and Ward
would disagree with you about our secondary. Heck, Talmadge Jackson III would disagree as well, our starting CB opposite of Thurmond, who picked off Moore last year as the starter (he started in lieu of an injured Thurmond). Javes Lewis played significant time, as well.
I'd like to know why Oregon feels that they'll score a lot of points on the Broncos...
Boise State has an excellent defense and only gave up 30 points twice all of last season (never at home)
by Drew Roberts on Aug 31, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd
because he’s right!
Proverbial ... ... ... Indeed!
by OBNUG Intern on Aug 31, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Funny thing about "never"...
He is right, but then never always comes to an end.
In the two years since Chip Kelly’s offense was installed the Ducks have played eight games where they had more than the standard one week of preparation. In those games, Oregon is 7-1 (the lone loss being the ’07 Dixon knee game at Arizona), having averaged 48 points and 539 yards of total offense (76 plays per game at 7.6 yards per play). Three of those games were against bowl-qualifying teams, and in those games the output ballooned to 54 points per game and 597 yards of offense (8.4 yards per play). None of those three games were in Eugene.
That’s not to say BSU’s defense isn’t everything you think it is. I think we can all appreciate the colossalness of this Bronco D versus Oregon O match-up.
The stats above might give you some idea of where us Duck fans get our crazy notions of grandeur.
Last time I checked, there is no "Hall of Average." - Oregon Football Coach Chip Kelly
C'mon FFBSU...
do you really think that teams only scored 30 on you because your defense was stellar or because you have a good defense in a bad league? Your secondary is good but is it better than half of the Pac-10’s secondaries? Seriously, 4 teams in the Pac-10 have a cornerback that is getting all-american consideration – AZ (Ross), Ucla (Verner), Cal (Thompson) and Oregon (Thurmond). Last year Oregon State put 3 guys in their secondary into the NFL. Oh yeah, we played them on the road.
Likewise, your front 7 with the nicklebacker is as green as they come. There is talent, granted, but I would be scared shitless to field all sophmores in our league no matter what their offer list. Our guys are upperclassmen and they give me reason for concern. Kenny Rowe was offered by USC and Cal, played as a true frehman, etc. Ferras almost sent his LOI into Wisconsin.
In any case, I expect to score 30+ points. I just don’t know if you guys will score 40. The only thing that will bring this score down is first game rust.
I wasn't forgetting that fact...
it was implied in my post. I see you all-american and match you 4 more on our schedule. UCLA has one in every unit in the defense. So, were not going to score 30?
I’m curious of the opposite.
Oregon only scored “less than 30” twice all of last season, and those games weren’t at home.
"It’s spelled S-H-U-T-U-P-I-M-S-M-A-R-T-E-R-T-H-A-N-Y-O-U"
Excuse me...
you did see that it was against CAL and ’SC, right? Sorry, your defense is no where near that level. The equalizer on defense against the spread is linebackers. ’SC sent 4 in the 1st two rounds and Cal sent 4 of their front seven to the NFL: Follet (OLB), Wiliams (OLB), Felder (ILB), and Rulon (DE). Cal runs a 3-4 defense with big athletic guys upfront and 4 linebackers with speed.
You guys have good talent but not ’SC and Cal talent in your front 7. Venable, Acrey, Tevis, Winterswyck, Baker, Winn and Root are not going to the NFL this year or next. Winn might be your best prospect, if he can get bigger or play end. Your depth on the dline outside of Hout with McClellin not getting a lot of snaps, Atkinson out, Grimes out, is a major concern.
Last year you started 3 senior dlinemen, and 2 linebackers as seniors that were more polished by your coaches own admission. When you were light on numbers in the TCU game you got gashed in the running game. One thing that we are not going to be mediocre at is run blocking. We will be good there even with an inexperienced line.
Against ’SC and Cal the venue did not mean much except for the torrential downpour in Cal. Yet we got the same thing the following week against Stanford at home and we scored 35. The players on the field matter more.
Excuse me… you did see that it was against CAL and ’SC, right?
Yup. Those games were painful to watch.
Sorry, your defense is no where near that level.
Well… I don’t think they suck as much as others do. I mean… crazy. But yeah… maybe you’re right. It sucks, doesn’t it?
The equalizer on defense against the spread is linebackers.
For sure. Though I’m not too worried over this.
’SC sent 4 in the 1st two rounds and Cal sent 4 of their front seven to the NFL: Follet (OLB), Wiliams (OLB), Felder (ILB), and Rulon (DE). Cal runs a 3-4 defense with big athletic guys upfront and 4 linebackers with speed.
To think of all that talent Oregon had to go against. Eeowzers!
You guys have good talent but not ’SC and Cal talent in your front 7
Maybe not, but I thought we had some pretty good Linebackers. In fact, best in a while!
Venable, Acrey, Tevis, Winterswyck, Baker, Winn and Root are not going to the NFL this year or next.
That sure does make it interesting! I find the coincidence to be amazing though.
Winn might be your best prospect, if he can get bigger or play end.
Maybe he can be an OLB for a 3-4 then?
Your depth on the dline outside of Hout with McClellin not getting a lot of snaps, Atkinson out, Grimes out, is a major concern.
I’m not sure who those guys are. Are they walk-ons? Though, again, the coincidence – AMAZING.
Last year you started 3 senior dlinemen
Very true. They were really solid too.
2 linebackers as seniors that were more polished by your coaches own admission
Well… I find them to be very replaceable myself. I mean, one of them had troubles keeping a starting position.
When you were light on numbers in the TCU game you got gashed in the running game.
My memory is a bit fuzzy from that one. I truly don’t remember playing TCU! How embarrassing!
One thing that we are not going to be mediocre at is run blocking. We will be good there even with an inexperienced line.
I agree. They look to be pretty good in the front 7!
Against ’SC and Cal the venue did not mean much except for the torrential downpour in Cal.
Yeah – it was a ton of rain.
Yet we got the same thing the following week against Stanford at home and we scored 35. The players on the field matter more.
For sure! Good thing too.
By the way:
In addition, have you ever heard of Tim Cain? He has a pretty awesome album. Maybe you’ve heard it.
Maybe not.
Either way, I’m gonna share the album art.
"It’s spelled S-H-U-T-U-P-I-M-S-M-A-R-T-E-R-T-H-A-N-Y-O-U"
by JShufelt on Aug 31, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Didn't notice the handle JShufelt...
so I didn’t detect the sarcasm. Just trying to call it as I see it. I think we get 30+ in this game. I think we score 30 on most teams, so it’s not an indictment of BSU’s talent, for sure.
Just havin’ fun with ya. I can barely maintain my excitement for the game, so I had to take the opportunity.
"It’s spelled S-H-U-T-U-P-I-M-S-M-A-R-T-E-R-T-H-A-N-Y-O-U"
Nor can I...
which is why I am posting without knowing it’s a fellow duck. Of course, damn you because scrolling through this thread over and over will require some ibuprofen.
One factor that you wouldn't know to mention...
is that the position coach is different at dline this year. Everyone is excited about him and he has received rave reviews for instilling a more agressive attitude. The mantra of our defense has changed, it seems, from “stop the run at all costs” to “get pressure on the quarterback.” Azzinaro is part of that equation.
This is in large part because of the bad statistical performances of our uber-talented secondary last year. In reality, we held your team to a total of 424 yards and 37 points, right at your averages for the season, when our offense was completely inept for 2 and 1/2 quarters during the “meat” of the game. I think there is a lot of room for improvement on defense by default of having a multi-dimensional quarterback that will keep the offense moving.
Frankly, what I am more concerned with is not blowing assignments in coverage. We can’t give Moore wide open targets, especially 6 foot plus, 220+ TE targets that have no one within 15 yards. We are aiming for pressure on the quarterback and not blowing our assignments.
I love first person narratives.
What position do you play?
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
OH?
Everyone is excited about him … The mantra of our defense … uber-talented secondary last year … we held your team … when our offense …what I am more concerned with is not blowing assignments in coverage … We can’t give Moore … We are aiming for pressure on the quarterback and not blowing our assignments.
For a second there I thought you were part of the secondary. Especially when you’re talking up the uber-talented secondary that ranked 112th in the nation last year in pass defense.
I thought, “he’s gotta be on the team to have such inside knowledge.”
…not so much.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
Especially when you’re talking up the uber-talented secondary that ranked 112th in the nation last year in pass defense.
::sigh::
Is the color orange indicative of failure with statistical analysis?
You make me put my face in my palm sometime, Mikrino. :-)
"It’s spelled S-H-U-T-U-P-I-M-S-M-A-R-T-E-R-T-H-A-N-Y-O-U"
As do the references to we, my and our...
make me put my face in my palm.
The Broncos are my team as well, but I don’t talk as if I’m on the team. Which is entirely different than talking about your team.
I think its intentional really. To perhaps purvey the image that by saying we a lot somehow people will believe you more.
That and I have to have something to complain about…
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
Yes, Mikrino,
I you use possessive pronouns in describing the Oregon Ducks because they are my team that I spending a lot of money to watch. Of course, multiple posters throughout this thread utilize the same said pronouns as well. Sorry if it is a pet peeve of yours but you digress.
The entire secondary from last years team will all be drafted on the first day of the draft in their respective draft years – 2009 & 2010. I call that a talented secondary. The fact that they gave up a lot of passing yards is a testament to very poor scheme that was rectified as the year went along.
. The fact that they gave up a lot of passing yards is a testament to very poor scheme that was rectified as the year went along.
I don’t agree with this, really. While it did improve later in the year, they really ended up being an average defense, with talented players.
The fact that they gave up a lot of passing yards is because of Oregon’s offensive scheme.
"It’s spelled S-H-U-T-U-P-I-M-S-M-A-R-T-E-R-T-H-A-N-Y-O-U"
by JShufelt on Aug 31, 2009 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The scheme got way better as the year progressed...
that didn’t look great on paper because of the amount of plays we faced. So, the scheme was better and the offense put pressure on the defense.
I agree, but a scheme change only goes so far too. We did improve a lot after the scheme change, but the overall yards allowed still would be ugly for any one that just looks at them without (Ref: Nearly every columnist)
"It’s spelled S-H-U-T-U-P-I-M-S-M-A-R-T-E-R-T-H-A-N-Y-O-U"
rec'd- for honesty
It’s a testament to poor defense against the pass.
Making excuses and coming up with fancy answers doesn’t change that.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
^any less talented...
Byrd, Chung, Thurmond and Ward are great individually will be able to showcase it on Sundays. Aliotti just didn’t utilize them effectively, which, as a result, made our pass defense poor. I never disputed it.
AH come on,
Everyone knows indivudual talent isn’t indicative of team play.
In fact, in most cases, the personalities and prima donnas make it all the more disruptive.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
this is gonna be terrific ain't it?
Lets’ promise each other that the loser will show up and take what he’s got comin’ after the game.
OK, BFF?
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
But… that’s not really what I was saying at all.
It wasn’t a poor defense.
It was, by extended analysis, average.
Defensive passing yards mean one thing: How many yards were thrown against a team.
If a team gave up 600 yards a game, but only averaged giving up 10 points, it doesn’t mean they were bad.
If I may, I’m going to copy a post I made over on CGB:
Alrighty…
First, it’s important to know how these metrics are being calculated.
A good start is to read through this article:
http:// "http://www.footballoutsiders.com/varsity-numbers/2008/varsity-numbers-ncaa-analysis-101
In summary there are the following baseline statistics:
EqPts = Equivalent Point Value.
This brings the value to the plays that set up the 1st and goal on the 1-yard line, than the actual TD from the 1 yard line. It makes it so that not every 5-yard gain is equal to the others. A 5-yard gain from your own 20 yard line isn’t as valuable as a 5-yard gain from your opponents 20 yard line.
PPP = EqPts (Points) Per Play
This is the actual value of each play. As you get closer to the end zone, your chance of scoring also increases (Either by TDs or a FG)
But this is also only relation to field position. So if you factor in that you are more likely to score more when you have more downs to work with, so the value of which down you are on is also a favor
Looking at things this way gives you a lot better indication of who accounted for a team’s points than yards or TDs or yards per carry. It measures not only how many yards you gain at any one time, but also how important those yards are toward points actually being scored. – Source
PPP can be viewed as the "Slugging" of football.
Success Rate
Success Rate is a value given by setting a "goal" for each down. If you obtain that "goal", you’re play was successful. If you didn’t – it wasn’t. These goals are defined by reaching a particular percentage of yards needed for a first down. You don’t need to get 10 yards on first down for a play to be successful.
1st Downs = 50 percent of necessary yardage
2nd Downs = 70 percent of necessary yardage
3rd/4th Downs = 100 percent of necessary yardage
So if it’s 1st and 10, and you get 5 yards, it was a successful play.
If it’s 2nd and 14, you need 10 yards.
If it’s 3rd or 4th down, you need to convert a first down for it to be successful.
By applying this to each play, you can create a metric of success. If PPP is the slugging if college football, Success Rate is the On-Base Percentage. Jacquizz Rodgers was a machine of the Success Rate, bulling and shifting his way to reliably getting 4-5 yards each run. But he never broke a long run in his young career.
That brings us to the magic metric of S&P.
S&P = Success Rate & Points Per Play
If PPP is slugging, and Success Rate is OBP, than S&P is OPS.
S&P doesn’t favor any style, method, explosiveness, or reliability.
Defensively, these metrics are exactly the same, only flipped. Example: Stopping a 3rd down conversion is a successful play. Getting a 3-and-out on their 20 yard line is both successful and valuable.
So instead of looking at overall numbers, and totals – these numbers look at the performance on each play – and they can even be applied to both teams and individuals.
"It’s spelled S-H-U-T-U-P-I-M-S-M-A-R-T-E-R-T-H-A-N-Y-O-U"
by JShufelt on Aug 31, 2009 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Man, I've never thought of that.
swing an argument to your favor by massive posts of exaggerated statistics.
Nice! YOU WIN!
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
With hurry up, no-huddle offenses, total numbers just don’t work as accurate metrics anymore.
Oregon got beat by BSU. No doubt about it. I’ve never seen a team bite so hard on play actions. But they really tuned up and got their stuff together. End the end, the were average on the season, by S&P metrics.
"It’s spelled S-H-U-T-U-P-I-M-S-M-A-R-T-E-R-T-H-A-N-Y-O-U"
I get it.
Y-O-U-A-R-E-S-M-A-R-T-E-R-T-H-A-N-M-E
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
Hahaha. Don’t mind that. My signature is a meme from the fact that people kept misspelling my name. Whenever someone does a “It’s spelled ‘S-H-U-…’”, and it makes me laugh, and I find it funnier than the one I had, I change it.
I try not to have an ego that size.
"It’s spelled S-H-U-T-U-P-I-M-S-M-A-R-T-E-R-T-H-A-N-Y-O-U"
rec'd for sheer volume
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
You sound as if you're sitting in team meetings
Its…amazing…* starstruck *
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
rec'd for agreement
we should just meet somewhere and fight with fists…=[
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
you don't want him
He doesn’t fight fair.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
I'll promise I'll get on here win or lose
You can let me have it…
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
I love crow...
I’ll be here for sure to congratulate you. However, I never really said BSU wasn’t going to win. Just that we were going to score 30+. I never said we were going to stop you from scoring 30+.
I know grasshoppa,
I’ m not putting word in your mouth. Just sayin, I’m getting darn excited here! So much so that now I’m just making fun of you rather than rant coherently and with meaning.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
I too am excited...
driving to Nampa here on Wednesday. I am going to get jacked up on coca-cola with some Nazarenes.
I know
they ranked 2nd in pass efficiency defense.
I’d tell you how it works but I don’t want to make JShufelt feel inadequate. He doing swell!
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
YES.
Those bastards.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
Is anyone else ...
… having trouble keeping Mikrino and BisonDucks straight after the avatar change? I’m so confused right now.
"Never let anyone sign your checks!" - Harvey Bushkin
Wow!
That is what I call some in-depth analysis. I’ve been pondering many of these same questions, so i’ll comment on a few.
How will Boise State come out against the ducks? I think we start with what we know is our strong points on offense: namely the passing game. I think we use the passing game to set up the running game. Although it is entirely possible that our running game is non-existent as it was last year, we still have to throw some running plays in there to keep the defense honest. The best way to do that is draw plays, throw a few screen passes (risky), run it on second and short, etc. But let’s face it, running it up the gut is not probably get us much yardage. I think this is the game plan for the first half, and make adjustments as needed at half time. I honestly don’t see play-action working as well for us this year, or simply Kellen throwing every down. In order to keep the defense honest we need to keep them on their toes. Maybe even run a no-huddle offense on the first drive. But lets be realistic, this will be the best defense we will face all year, and although i’m confident they won’t be able to stop us on every drive, we have to play mistake-free.
As for Oregon defense, they are smart, they’re angry about last year, they want to beat us on our blue very badly, and they’ll be looking for blood. They know that Kellen is the key to our offense, so obviously they’ll be trying to put pressure on him. I predict that they will put pressure on Kellen many times, and don’t need alot of help from their linebackers to do it. It’s going to be up to Richie Brockel and our running backs to pick up those extra blocks and blitzes, so Kellen can have enough time. If we can do that then that could potentially that could open up some late release out routes for Brockel, Avery, and Harper.
Bottomeline: it’s going to be close, but i think throughout the four quarters our offense will prevail.
by CaptainBronco on Aug 31, 2009 1:50 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
running it up the gut is not probably get us much yardage.
Just curious, cap’n, what makes you think this? Size of our RBs? Size of Oregon?
"Never let anyone sign your checks!" - Harvey Bushkin
size of Oregon...
their defensive linemen, their linebackers, and that Will Tukuafu video. I think they are too good to run it up the gut on first down.
by CaptainBronco on Sep 1, 2009 8:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Oregon's D-Line
Somebody mentioned Oregon’s D-line out side of Tukuafu is pretty green (no pun) and a little light? If that’s the case, running right at them might not be a bad idea, esp if we can get blockers on their backers and DBs.. But who really knows?
I hope you're right.
but i still think it’s not going to be easy.
by CaptainBronco on Sep 1, 2009 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Anybody else notice...
that both of Oregon’s starting CBs are apparently part of some trilogies. They are both the 3rd.
Don’t know why, but makes me think of Snowball II.
by Rand McNalley on Aug 31, 2009 2:06 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Blount
I am really interested to see how Boise State stops this guy. This guy is a load – His carries were limited last year but still made 1000 yards. He avg. over 7 yards per carry last year – only 5.5 against BSU. With all the carries – what is he going to do?
http://fourthdownand5.blogspot.com/ – a “playoff” blog
He's a beast ... no doubt
I thought Oregon would have been better suited giving him more carries in last year’s game than they did. He was their biggest threat through the first three quarters. I’m quite scared to see what he brings to the table on Thursday night.
"Never let anyone sign your checks!" - Harvey Bushkin
I laugh so I won't cry
I like Nate a lot, but it seems like he always makes some sort of mental mistake during the course of the game. You a Potter fan, Drofdarb?
"Never let anyone sign your checks!" - Harvey Bushkin
Yes
Yeah, I’m a Potter fan. I know him pretty well – used to coach him in lacrosse and he graduated from Timberline w/ my brother. I know quite a few guys on the team. I realize you guys are just havin fun on here – no worries.
Forgot one important thing....
Great article to think about, but here is something you forgot to mention about the game…coaching. Oregon has a new but coach who has been there before, while Peterson who has the smoothness of any BIG game coach should make sure the team is there to do it’s job. Take a good look at the fiesta Bowl and the Oregon game last year, he knows! He knows not to be over cocky and to play the game the best they can. this is why Boise State can run with the big dogs, for they over look us every time. It is hard to see us in a game that we are favored by 5 points rather us being the under dog, you know when “we” win this game that every Big School will be out to get us this year even Miami of Ohio.
You know the thing I really fear by beating Oregon, might be that this could be the last year of Coach Pete, and the great recruiting he does.
Kj Winston
this could be the last year of Coach Pete
Flagged for making me sad.
Yep, I think you’re right about coaching, KJ. It will be interesting to watch. Oregon fans assure me that Kelly will be just fine on Thursday night, but we’ll see.
"Never let anyone sign your checks!" - Harvey Bushkin
If Pete goes anywhere ..
.. it would be the Denver Broncos. I don’t see him going to another college.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
Biggest team in a hole this season.
Still has Western influence and the owners will listen to Ryan Clady.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
I’m not sure I would rule out Arizona if Stoops falls back on his face (likely), or Arizona State if Erickson decides it’s time to move on, again (less likely). Relatively attractive Pac-10 jobs, not unlike Hawkins going to Colorado.
Last time I checked, there is no "Hall of Average." - Oregon Football Coach Chip Kelly
Hawkins to Colorado..
just reinforces the Pete’s notion of “the grass isn’t always greener,” “Bigger isn’t better,” etc. There have been a sting of coaches to leave for “bigger and better” programs only to not do so well (ie Hawkins). As long as we continue to upgrade our facilities and keep winning I think he’ll stick around for awhile.
this could be the last year of Coach Pete
Coach Pete will move if he is successful and only to a school he loves. Like a Pac-10 school but, up here in the northwest. He is from Oregon and has always loved it here. Washington State, or his passion maybe in 3 years Oregon or Oregon state!
KjWinston
PS Kevan...
See you at the Game…I scored two tickets yesterday! There will be a Dawg barking in the end zone for the orange and blue!
KjWinston
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Mon 09/06 | 5:00 PM PDT |
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Sat 09/18 | 5:00 PM PDT |
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Oregon St.
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Sat 09/25 | TBA |
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