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Is Boise State's 2010 schedule championship worthy?

If reports out of Virginia are true, Boise State's 2010 schedule is going to be its best yet. But will that be enough to finally get the Broncos consideration for a national championship?

Star-divide

The biggest obstacle in the past decade or so for the Broncos being legitimate championship contenders is that Downy-soft schedule they seem to always have. With Oregon State on board for next season and with Virginia Tech being rumored as the opener, the Broncos now find themselves in uncharted territory. No non-BCS team has been able to break the glass ceiling of national championship consideration yet. Will the 2010 Broncos be the first? Allow me to break it down one game at a a time.

 

Virginia Tech (FedEx Field, Washington, D.C.)

This game was huge for the Broncos to get on the schedule, as it finally breaks the stereotype that Boise State is unwilling to challenge themselves against nonconference opponents. That alone should help boost their case to be considered among the best in college football. BSU did everything it could to make the 2010 schedule as tough as could be.

The Virginia Tech game could be one of the season's best, too, in all of college football. Both teams are preseason Top 15 candidates this year, and if both live up to their preseason hype, they could go into next season with similar rankings. The Hokies will have quarterback Tyrod Taylor back for his senior season, along with eight projected starters on offense (provided none turn pro early). The defense, which is always a VT specialty, will lose three seniors from the secondary after this year, as well as graduating half of its D-line. It's the offense you worry more about at VaTech, though, so projections in 2010 for the Hokies should be high.

vs. Toledo

I don't really have anything good to say about Toledo. They're a MAC team. They beat Michigan last year. I guess those are good things. The 2010 version will be breaking in a new quarterback most likely, but they'll be in year two of the Tim Beckman era with a couple of talented players returning at the skill positions. If the Rockets do well in the MAC this year, it will only help the Broncos' cause moving forward toward 2010.

@ Wyoming

The Cowboys were picked to finish last in the MWC this year at the conference's media days, so I guess they can only go up from there. The good parts of this matchup are that a) it is against a MWC team, which is perceived to be a tougher conference than the WAC, and b) it is on the road - not that Wyoming is a tough place to play, but still.

vs. Oregon State

The jewel in Boise State's schedule crown up until the VaTech announcement, Oregon State visiting Bronco Stadium has shades of 2006 written all over it. The Beavers will provide a good test for the Broncos, but it remains to be seen just how much outsiders will value Boise State hosting a Pac-10 team. A visit to Oregon State would be better, but having the Beavers on the schedule at all should do more help than harm.

@ Nevada

Colin Kaepernick will be a senior in 2010, and Nevada could be considered one of the up-and-coming teams in the nation. Or they could completely bomb this year and everyone will forget about them next. We'll see.

vs. Fresno State

The Bulldogs will be settled at quarterback and still have the services of RB Ryan Mathews. 2010 could be a strong year for Fresno State.

vs. Louisiana Tech, vs. Hawaii, @ San Jose State, @ New Mexico State, @ Idaho, vs. Utah State

What can I say? It's a WAC schedule. For the most part, these teams will be as good as they normally are. Utah State might be on the rise by 2010, and LaTech is always a wildcard.

Other mitigating factors:

Boise State should field its best team ever in 2010 - that is, until 2011 rolls around.

The Broncos will need to do well this season in order to set themselves up for a good run at the title in 2010. In other words, the preseason polls will have almost as much to do with Boise State's national championship hopes as will their schedule. Finish high this year, and they're bound to start the season high enough next fall.

Also, what this guy said.

Conclusion:

The pieces are in place for a run at a title in 2010, but the realist in me says that it's still a pipe dream for a non-BCS team. The nonconference games versus Toledo and at Wyoming do the Broncos no favors, and there's still that WAC schedule hanging around their necks like a nauseaus albatross. Virginia Tech and Oregon State prove that the Broncos are serious about contending. But in the unfair world of college football, it may not be enough.

0 recs  |  Comment 21 comments |

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Is it too early to put the over/under on how many stories the national media writes about special teams play?

I’m going to say 10. And I’m going to put Graham Watson’s at 7.

"We're not teaching them about sports. We're teaching them about life!" - Tony Perkis

by Kevan Lee on Jul 22, 2009 7:30 AM PDT reply actions  

On the surface, I say no. 2008 Utah would still have a tougher schedule because they at least had two impressive MWC games, as well as beating an OSU team that had just taken down USC.

So, to get a sniff, BSU will have to DESTROY every team that it plays. It will have to kill it’s non-conference slate. A close game against VT won’t get it done, as that’s the game that everyone will watch. If it’s close, and VT goes roughly 9-3 (as they are prone to do in the ACC), well, that won’t be overly impressive. Also, you must beat OSU worse than any Pac-10 team.

BSU simply can’t leave any doubt in the voters mind. Because if there is, they won’t get into the title game.

--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog

by jtlight on Jul 22, 2009 7:59 AM PDT reply actions  

When is a win not a win? When Boise State wins by 20 or less

Good point. The Broncos stand the best chance only if they roll through their schedule. Anything less would give doubters too much ammunition.

What I’m happy with and excited about is that, for once, Boise State can go undefeated with their schedule and be able to say, “Well, we did everything we could.” Kind of hard to say that this year with UC Davis coming to Boise in October. I’m skeptical if it would be enough, too, but it would at least eliminate one argument against the Broncos.

"We're not teaching them about sports. We're teaching them about life!" - Tony Perkis

by Kevan Lee on Jul 22, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

doubtful

i’m also going to have to say its probably not strong enough. Beating VT and OSU are musts, i don’t think they have to completely destroy them. but they absolutely have to kill everyone else they play. Tall task but scheduling VT is definitely moving the the right direction. Hell, why not move to the pac-10.

by hotdawgin on Jul 22, 2009 10:39 AM PDT reply actions  

hotdawgin for Pac-10 commissioner

We want to go to there.

"We're not teaching them about sports. We're teaching them about life!" - Tony Perkis

by Kevan Lee on Jul 22, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Love the Tina Fey reference.

"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale

by Loque on Jul 22, 2009 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks

I’m naming my fantasy football team this year after a reference from 30 Rock.

"We're not teaching them about sports. We're teaching them about life!" - Tony Perkis

by Kevan Lee on Jul 23, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

You see Tracy Morgan on Letterman? Hilarious. Also, that headline on that link is so true.

--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog

by jtlight on Jul 23, 2009 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Don't tell me...

“NGS, Fridays at C30 on TB10” ?

"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale

by Loque on Jul 23, 2009 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm all for it

Moving to the PAC10 is a best case scenario for Boise State, especially in the recruiting department.

I think the MWC is the reality though, eventually. Which could prove a good move over time.

The question for Boise State National Title hopes in 2010 will be answered this year. If they beat Oregon out the gate, and steamroll after that as we all assume they will. Back to back undefeated seasons would be the key to a Boise State title. One loss (TCU) in 3 seasons would be a key factor in rankings 2 years from now. Outside of that…no shot at a title given the current format. IMO.

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken." -Colonel Sanders (look it up)

by Mikrino on Jul 22, 2009 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

forget where i read this idea, but go independent

some blog somewhere suggested that Boise and teams like them should go independent and adopt the “bring it on, anyone, anywhere mentality” and separate from a weak conference in order to propel the program to the next level. Might be a risky move but i think the broncos could handle it.

by hotdawgin on Jul 27, 2009 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Championship of What?

Va Tech and the Beavs?? Give me a break. Va Tech is a decent team in a horrible football conference and the Beavs are a mediocre team in a good football conference. Why don’t you try getting a Big10/12 or a SEC team on there. Just because it’s outside of your usual cupcake schedule, doesn’t make it championship worthy. 44 more days until the beat down, get your lube ready!

by Duck80085 on Jul 22, 2009 4:13 PM PDT reply actions  

Its possible...?

For it even to be an issue we will have to go undefeated thru this regular season, Win in a BCS Bowl Game (Fiesta vs Texas / Oklahoma Maybe?)… End in the top 5 and start next year in the top 10
If we go through the next regular season undefeated, also less than 2 BCS schools go undefeated as well and only 1 real clear cut contender… Then I’d say we become atleast part of a conversation. If nothing else I’d say we would have at least a respectable arguement.
Pretty small odds….

by BustersBFF on Jul 22, 2009 4:34 PM PDT reply actions  

see my post above...

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken." -Colonel Sanders (look it up)

by Mikrino on Jul 22, 2009 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

If an undefeated SEC Auburn couldn't in 2004...

…neither would an undefeated Boise St. in 2010.

"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale

by Loque on Jul 22, 2009 4:41 PM PDT reply actions  

A lot would depend on what other teams do as well

At the least, there couldn’t be two undefeated BCS teams. More realistically, you’d need a two loss Big-12 team and a two loss SEC team to win their respective conference championships, would need Oregon State to win the PAC-10, and VaTech to win the ACC. Then it’d be pretty tough to keep BSU out of playing the Big-10 champ for the national title. But that is a LOT of ifs.

by killtacular on Jul 22, 2009 5:18 PM PDT reply actions  

As long as we have Idaho and NMSU on the schedule, it’s not a championship caliber schedule, unfortunately. It’s like having two FCS schools on the schedule every year—there are several IAA teams better than these two. (UC-Davis might have been able to beat one or both of them last year; they nearly beat San Jose State.)

by Egnowit on Jul 22, 2009 5:56 PM PDT reply actions  

Utah had UNLV and San Diego St. and wound up number two.

I still think that if this season BSU is undefeated and does the same in 2010 they would be 38-1 in 3 straight seasons. The outcry if they didn’t get it would be just as good. Well…not really but you get the idea.

This is all supposition. Far ahead of when it matters. We need Boise State to kill Oregon 55-10.
Thats all that matters.

"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken." -Colonel Sanders (look it up)

by Mikrino on Jul 22, 2009 6:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

San Diego State beat Idaho 45-17, and UNLV beat Arizona State and Iowa State while going 5-7 (only 2-6 in conference). That more than anything else tells the difference between the WAC and the MWC.

The WAC, after BSU, is really realy bad.

--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog

by jtlight on Jul 22, 2009 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

UNLV beat ASU
BSU beat Oregon
BYU beat UW
Utah beat OSU
New Mexico beat Arizona
Hawaii beat WSU
TCU beat Stanford
BYU, Fresno beat UCLA

The PAC, after Cal and USC, is really really bad.

by Snipes25 on Jul 24, 2009 9:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

One year doesn’t quite lock up the PAC’s status as “really really bad”… I mean, I can make a similar list too…

OSU beat Cal
OSU beat USC
OSU beat Hawaii (badly)
USC beat tOSU
USC beat PSU
UO beat Okla St
UCLA beat Tenn.
Cal beat Miami
Arizona beat BYU

And so on… the WAC is clearly climbing, but come on, let’s not lose our sh*t here. The WAC’s been competitive for how long now? I have a lot of respect for BSU so don’t take this as a knock when I say that after BSU there’s a pretty steep decline in quality. You’ve undoubtedly built something substantial over there. The rest of your conference needs to follow your lead.

SIGN BRANDON ROY TO A 5 YEAR DEAL NOW!

by ArbyOSU on Jul 29, 2009 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions  

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