Would you take the Boise State Broncos as 10-point favorites versus Oregon?
by Kevan Lee on Jul 2, 2009 7:12 AM PDT
in Boise State football
42 comments
I stumbled upon this interesting tidbit yesterday and spent the remainder of my afternoon and evening in a cold sweat, clutching my Phil Steele and eating my feelings.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Boise State (-9.5) vs. Oregon (TP=60 Odds=.610)
The favorite is listed first with the projected margin of victory (i.e., the line) in parenthesis. 'TP' represents the total number of points expected to be scored in the game and 'Odds' represents the odds of the favorite winning straight-up (not against-the-spread).
A 35-25 Boise State win? Some Bronco fans wouldn't even go that far.
A line of 9.5 points seems too good to be true. And it is.
The official betting lines for the first week of games are not out yet, meaning that this 9.5-point spread is nothing more than the opinion of the writer. Still, the thought of being a 9.5-point favorite against a BCS school like Oregon? I thought only I had those thoughts and that they only came to me when I was being particularly unrealistic.
Then the high spread got me thinking: Would I take the Broncos to win by that many? If I were a betting man (Note: OBNUG does not condone betting unless you are pretty sure you will win), I'm not sure what I'd do. The Broncos would have to win by at least 10 points in order for me to win the bet. If they win by nine or fewer, I'm out of luck. Decisions, decisions.
But is a 9.5-point spread only difficult for us diehard Bronco fans? Are Oregon fans seeing the number and scoffing into their DIY hemp coffee jackets? If the roles were reversed, if Boise State were the nearly double-digit underdog versus the Ducks, I would jump on that betting line faster than an Oregon fan on a thinly veiled Ellis-Powers-is-not-a-cheapshot-artist reference. It would be an easy decision.
When it comes right down to it, I would back the Broncos. I always back the Broncos. This is why I have no money in my savings account and a living room filled with Bronco bobbleheads. But how many other Bronco Nationers would join me? Half? One-third? The rich ones with money to blow?
I believe that when the point spread for this game is announced the Broncos will be favored to win. But they won't be favored by nearly 10 points. Give them a 3.5-point to 5-point edge, keep the over-under at 60, and get out of the way between me and the Jackpot, Nevada sportsbook.
That'll be a much easier decision.
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This needs to be posted at Addicted to Quack. I’d love to be a webcam on a Duck fans PC when they see it…=]
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken." -Colonel Sanders (look it up)
by Mikrino on Jul 2, 2009 7:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Something tells me they’ll get wind of it. Either that or they’ll all come over here and tell us all about it.
"What if we already know each otha's names?" - Josh
by Kevan Lee on Jul 2, 2009 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
RSS feeds are awesome :) (thanks for adding the tag BTW)
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
by jtlight on Jul 2, 2009 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hate not being the underdog… Even though the media and Las Vegas may pick the Broncos to win (which I totally think will happen), I’d much rather be picked to lose. That’s the Bronco mentality and the chip-on-the-shoulder we need. The Ducks are going to put it on their shoulders after being picked to lose, so watch out Broncos! Beware of being comfortable!
Go Broncos!
"The brothers, they don't think I know a butt-load of crap about the gospel, but I DO." -Nacho
by BroncoFever on Jul 2, 2009 7:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
A Duck fans thoughts....
What’s so interesting about these numbers, is that BSU wins the game 61% of the time according to the writer. So that means whoever is making this bet thinks that if BSU wins, there’s an 80+% chance it’s over 10 points. When you think about it that way, that just doesn’t make sense.
If I was betting on this specific line, I would take the points in a heartbeat, but not take Oregon to win straight up.
I think Kevan’s right on regarding where the line will end up. Give BSU 3 for home field, and then another point or two. Over/Under around 60 sounds good too. My inclination was for higher after last year’s game, but you just never know how a first game will go.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
by jtlight on Jul 2, 2009 8:12 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Too true
you just never know how a game will go. I think BSU will win it, but I shiver to think how close it could be (lots of shivering last year…). I wish you Ducks the best of luck. I hope you only have one loss this year (to Boise State), and I hope you kill, and I mean kill, USC!!!!
"The brothers, they don't think I know a butt-load of crap about the gospel, but I DO." -Nacho
by BroncoFever on Jul 2, 2009 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I don’t think a 10 point spread is realistic. 35-25 is similar to last year’s outcome. The Broncos at home anything could happen. They could win by 40 or lose by 4. Keep in mind, (this will deflate some blue and orange fans) the Broncos last two home losses came to BCS teams (Wash. St.-2001 Boston College-2005).
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken." -Colonel Sanders (look it up)
by Mikrino on Jul 2, 2009 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Take the points! Take the points!
Mikrino, I think you said it well…“anything could happen.” I’ll add just one more scenario to the mix: They (BSU) could lose by 40. I say “could”, that’s not a prediction on my part. These are two powerful offenses if all cylinders are firing. Should either of the teams have a few turnovers or not show up on defense they could get beat badly.
I'm really tired of it not being football season.
by JConant on Jul 2, 2009 9:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
forgive me mikrino, but no one is deflated.
Oregon is a bcs team. Boise State is not. That proves nothing about our chances.
It is not deflating to point out that the last 2 home losses for Boise State were 4 and 8 years ago…
It is not deflating to note that the BSU team this year would smoke the teams from 01 and 05.
I find it irritating that some of our wiser Bronco fans assume that other members of Bronco nation are deflated by stats like that.
Kellen Moore breaks an arm? that would deflate me…. Jeremy Avery injured…..sure.
But to point out that 2 unrelated teams with a different player at every position and a different head coach lost to 2 other unrelated teams back in the day actually makes us look pretty good.
I take the 10 point spread. Boise State is more legitimate every single year. We are always surprised by their success, even though we are optimistic about them. I don’t see the immense amount of talent on the Boise State team that matters (09 team) choking against Brand-New-Chip and the Quacks. Not on our turf… Not in 2009.
by pretendhuman on Jul 5, 2009 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
pretendhuman
the talent on your team is nothing to scoff at but “immense” is overkill. Seriously, BSU is better served playing with the proverbial “chip” on their shoulder. If you lose come Sept. 3 it won’t be because of a choke job. Blount, Dickson, Tukuafu, Thurmond and possibly Ward will be drafted 1st day. The talent coming to town on Sept. 3 has the capability of making most teams look bad. Also, go learn about what Chip has done to opposing defenses with 2 weeks or more to prepare (Oklahoma State – 42, @Oregon State – 65, @ASU – 52, UW – 44, USF – 56, WSU – 53, Houston – 48) in his tenure with the team. He’s averaged just over 51 points a game with a sample size of 7, three against top 25, 5 of the venues away or on a neutral sites, and the only patsy was UW. Our average margin of victory: (11, 27, 34, 34, 35, 46, & 21) slightly under 30 points.
by BisonDucks on Jul 5, 2009 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
?
I thought Chip Kelly was Offensive Coordinator. Am I wrong?
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
by Loque on Jul 5, 2009 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My bad.
I read that way wrong. Instead of “…go learn about what Chip has done to opposing defenses…” I read “…go learn about what Chip has done with the [Oregon] defense…”
Very different, indeed.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
by Loque on Jul 5, 2009 10:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You have to figure it works like this: BSU gets about a +6 for home field. I live in Vegas and they have the company who sets the lines LVSC (http://www.lvsc.com/about.html) on the local radio show and go over the lines. Last season, he was talking about how much the lines are adjusted based on home field. If I remember right, Va Tech/Florida get the biggest boost and it was about +7.5. I do remember him saying BSU has one of the bigger advantages at about +6.
Then you figure BSU is another +3 straight up, which I think is fair or even a bit low. Based on that, I would take BSU and give the points. Of course if you aren’t comfortable with the spread, you could always look at the moneyline (betting the game straight up with no point spread). I’m not sure where to estimate that line.
Disclaimer: Taking gambling advice from me is a worse idea than investing with Bernie Madoff. I was 0-6 during last bowl season. So there you go.
by MooreWalksOnWater on Jul 2, 2009 8:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That’s really interesting about the automatic six-point spread. Care to keep us updated during the season if you hear the oddsmakers talk about that again?
"What if we already know each otha's names?" - Josh
by Kevan Lee on Jul 2, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that’s interesting as well, but for a different reason. That just doesn’t sound right to me. I’ve never heard of teams getting more than 4 points for home field, and even that is generous. One of the best statistical college football minds around the internet ran through this a while ago, and surmised home field advantage to be roughly 3.3 points.
I would never give 6 points for home field advantage, especially against a good team. Even though I think Autzen is one of the best home field advantages in the nation, I wouldn’t rate it much more than 3 points. Because good teams know how to handle noise. Opposing teams margin for error is smaller, but for most teams that just doesn’t matter. I mean, it has some impact, a timeout here, false start here, and over time, that adds up to something. But, it’s really just not that much.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
by jtlight on Jul 2, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
70-5
When you’ve only lost 5 homes games in 10 seasons oddsmakers might be apt up the spread.
Its not entirely out of the realm of possibility considering the Broncos average margin of victory at home is easily 3 TDs.
Not sure of the exact stat, but I remember it being something like 24.5 ppg.
"I'm too drunk to taste this chicken." -Colonel Sanders (look it up)
by Mikrino on Jul 2, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
???
Cannot dispute the impressive home record. But oddsmakers don’t deviate from their standard best practices (see jtlight’s point about home field being worth 3.3). Setting the line is about the science/math, not about someone sticking his neck out on the notion that BSU doesn’t lose often at home so let’s ratchet up the home field quotient against a top-15 BCS visitor in both teams’ first game of the season. That doesn’t make any more sense than me trying to argue the spread should be tighter because BSU is “due” for a home loss to a BCS team.
If the line is released by more reliable betting sources as BSU -9.5 (and it might be that wide), it won’t be because oddsmakers are assuming a 6-point home field advantage.
I'm really tired of it not being football season.
by JConant on Jul 2, 2009 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
That is a great point!
…I have nothing to add…just, really well done there…
by echris on Jul 2, 2009 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m curious how much of it is statistical science/math and how much of it is an objective effort to make sure that there’s even money on both sides of the wager. For example, let’s say that the American public feels that Boise State is “due” for a home loss to a BCS team. I would assume that the spread should reflect this (by lowering the points that BSU is giving Oregon) because oddsmakers will want to ensure that the spread is low enough that people can’t help but pick the Broncos. Does that make sense? I kind of confused myself there. Basically, I’m wondering if there are more powers at work than just formulas. The automatic six points for being at home would support that.
"What if we already know each otha's names?" - Josh
by Kevan Lee on Jul 2, 2009 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with Quack.
I would take an automatic +6 for BSU home field advantage… but only against regular competition. When you have a strong team like UO come and play, that auto-spread needs to drop.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
by Loque on Jul 2, 2009 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely. Anything I can do to contribute to the Nation.
by MooreWalksOnWater on Jul 2, 2009 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you check your Phil Steele
You’ll see he gives the Bronco’s a +6 for homefield advantage…
by killtacular on Jul 4, 2009 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, here’s that link again: http://www.lvsc.com/about.html
by MooreWalksOnWater on Jul 2, 2009 8:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I love your handle.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
by Loque on Jul 2, 2009 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve said it before I’ll say it again. The closer we get to the game, the less confident I am.
4 months ago? Oh, we got this in the bag.
Last month? Hmmm… it is Oregon…
This month? Uh… ok, now I’m getting nervous
Next month? We got no shot at all… I can’t watch.
Kickoff? I’ll probably be a basketcase.
by JasonHaberman on Jul 2, 2009 8:29 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Spread
I can’t help but think the 9.5 is pretty close to accurate. Whether I would put big money down or just a sawbuck isn’t settled but I would take the bet. $10 or $100? I am not that sure of a ten point win. If the game was played later in the season I likely would though.
by JLF on Jul 2, 2009 9:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The big unknown
What keeps this old country boy up at night is worrying about the O line. We were rolled over by TCU last game and we haven’t gotten any bigger since. Experience is important but O line performance in opening up holes for a running game is an unknown. Oregon is not one of the better D’s but BSU’s O isn’t one of the top O’s either. It likely will not matter much against Oregon – I hope.
by JLF on Jul 2, 2009 9:21 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Oregon has it’s own O-line to worry about it…
But it sounds like a different type of worry. Our O-line is very talented (I really think one of the most physically talented in UO history, FWIW), but TOTALLY inexperienced.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
by jtlight on Jul 2, 2009 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oregon's defense will be top notch...
TCU had a defense to covet last year, however. The defensive backs, linebackers and defensive ends next year are better than any I can remember, save the safety spot. DT is a questionmark but we will have a rotation of 5 upperclassmen to fill 2 spots. Ted Miller’s Pac – 10 blog series, “Don’t be surprise if…” had Oregon tabbed for a better defense next year. The problem with our secondary was that all 4 dbs were geared for the run, whereas this year it will be more pass oriented. For what it’s worth, both teams will be fielding good defenses, it’s the first game of the season, which gives the defense an edge by default and both offensive line with issue will be facing good defensive lines albeit slightly green. This game could easily land in the 20’s for both teams, which makes the 10 point spread a little disagreeable.
by BisonDucks on Jul 2, 2009 12:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Let’s not forget, several of Oregon’s coaching staff spent a couple days sharing secrets with TCU’s staff this past winter. Anyone want to guess whether TCU’s gameplan against Boise State was discussed?
I'm really tired of it not being football season.
by JConant on Jul 2, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Damn!
I KNEW we shouldn’t have beaten TCU in the Fort Worth Bowl in ’03…
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
by Loque on Jul 2, 2009 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stupid us for winning.
"What if we already know each otha's names?" - Josh
by Kevan Lee on Jul 2, 2009 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here’s a sample from a 2007 article:
“The Boise State Broncos are one of the only other teams that might demand an extra six or seven points on their home line after head-to-head comparisons are made. Boise, like Hawaii, is remote enough to frequently require unusual travel plans and its unique stadium extends the foreign feel for visiting teams.
Bettors shouldn’t apply a uniform number for a school’s home-field advantage, though. The books certainly don’t.
"You have to adjust," says John Avello, director of race and sports operations for Wynn Las Vegas. "If some small school from the East Coast is visiting Boise State for the first time, it’ll be a 7-point advantage. If Ohio State’s visiting, though, even first time, it’s back down to three. The Buckeyes have traveled to too many bowl games and national title games to be shaken by playing in Boise State."
http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=152490&t=0
by MooreWalksOnWater on Jul 2, 2009 6:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That quote backs up what I was saying above, that when two teams of similar stature face off, home field is home field. Oregon should not be fazed by either the travel or the environment of BSU, thus the home advantage as it relates to the spread will be 3 points.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
by jtlight on Jul 2, 2009 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We also schedule tough OOC away games...
@Purdue, @Michigan, @Oklahoma (just in the last 4 years). Plus, every other year we have to deal with an away venue like Reser, lol.
by BisonDucks on Jul 3, 2009 8:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Duck OOC
Of course the U of O OOC’s are of a higher profile nature. That is the way moderately successful teams become highly successful teams. No one gives a team credit for defeating the poorer people. Think WAC. You only get kudos for playing the good ones. MY big stink is that BSU and the regional PAC 10 teams don’t play every year. You can’t say playing BSU is playing down. I also recognize money is a huge thing. The reality is TV revenues for a game broadcast on the entire west coast or at least the northwest are not insignificant but they don’t off-set a $2 million gate. Until BSU can put 60,000 fans in the stands we will have trouble drawing big name teams to Boise.
by JLF on Jul 3, 2009 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where's the 60+ day forecast when you need it...
Let’s be honest though, what do spreads even mean? Whether they give Boise or Oregon the 10 point advantage, it’s all the same… 2 good teams that both have a chip on their shoulder.
p.s. we shouldn’t forget to consider what the new apparel will do for/against Boise… That will most likely be just as accurate as the vegasers opinion!
Someday I hope to look in a mirror and see something special... something like a coach pete protoge'.
by BigBaloo on Jul 2, 2009 10:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Over-under
I don’t think it is the over under that is the problem. Home advantage is an automatic 3 points and that means it is a one TD game. Last years stats tell only a part of the story. Remember that last year they played their third string QB for most of the game and this year their #1 guy is playing. Last year the 4th string true freshman ripped off two TD’s in a row just like his hair was on fire. That was impressive – spooky but impressive. I doubt it will be that way this year. We have a better DB crew and our safeties just impress the hell out of me. Anyone who thinks this is anything like a run-away game is loony. It will be as good a game as any we play for a long while.
by JLF on Jul 3, 2009 8:13 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I am talking about the spread...
vegas takes away some of the home field advantage if the team coming in plays often at difficult venues. I am sure that BSU would love to mix it up with the BCS schools on a regular basis but can’t find many suitors. We have home and away series with Tennesse and KSU in the next two years. I am sure those schools want nothing to do with a trip to the blue turf.
by BisonDucks on Jul 3, 2009 11:29 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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