Do-over! A computer's take on the 2008 Boise State vs. Oregon game

There has been much made of last year's Boise State vs. Oregon game. Bronco fans maintain that the victory over the Ducks was a momentous program-changer and one of the best Boise State performances in school history. Oregon fans maintain that the game never happened.

I guess we'll see on September 3.

But until then, the Internet, the same benevolent giver of Keyboard Cat, has granted us a do-over - something to appease the Oregon fans with long-term memory loss and something for Bronco fans to prove that last season wasn't a fluke.

Bronco Nation, I give to you the whatifsports.com simulation of last year's Oregon game: Oregon 34, Boise State 31.

(Full details after the jump.)

(Whatifsports.com simulations are available for pretty much any college game ever. This may not be the only sim you see from us during the offseason. And of course, you can do your own, throw it in a fanshot, and demand that people care about it. Thanks to reader Mike for the tip.)

Oregon_vs_bsu_medium

An Oregon field goal with :01 left on the clock? Sounds to me like those brainy computers couldn't really decide who should win either.

In the make believe world of whatifsports, the Broncos gained more yards on the ground (nearly 200 with a generous donation from Mad Doug Martin) than they did through the air (165 and a pick for Kellen Moore). Much more realistically, Ian Johnson had two rushing touchdowns despite not leading the team in rushing yards.

A human Moore was not enough to overcome a prolific Jeremiah Johnson; the Oregon running back was named player of the game for his 130 yards and two touchdowns. After tying the game with a 2-yard Johnson TD run, the Broncos let Oregon march downfield (on what I can only imagine were several roughing the passer penalties) to kick the winning field goal.

The lessons to be learned from this sim:

  • Computers continue to hold a grudge against BSU for some reason.
  • Kellen Moore cannot accurately be quantified by any algorithm.
  • Whatifsports.com simulations were meant to be repeated until the desired result is achieved.

 

Speaking of lesson number three, I got a 41-24 Boise State victory on my third try.

Anyone care for best two out of three?

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