Do-over! A computer's take on the 2008 Boise State vs. Oregon game
by Kevan Lee on Jun 26, 2009 5:32 AM PDT
in Boise State football
6 comments
There has been much made of last year's Boise State vs. Oregon game. Bronco fans maintain that the victory over the Ducks was a momentous program-changer and one of the best Boise State performances in school history. Oregon fans maintain that the game never happened.
I guess we'll see on September 3.
But until then, the Internet, the same benevolent giver of Keyboard Cat, has granted us a do-over - something to appease the Oregon fans with long-term memory loss and something for Bronco fans to prove that last season wasn't a fluke.
Bronco Nation, I give to you the whatifsports.com simulation of last year's Oregon game: Oregon 34, Boise State 31.
(Full details after the jump.)
(Whatifsports.com simulations are available for pretty much any college game ever. This may not be the only sim you see from us during the offseason. And of course, you can do your own, throw it in a fanshot, and demand that people care about it. Thanks to reader Mike for the tip.)
An Oregon field goal with :01 left on the clock? Sounds to me like those brainy computers couldn't really decide who should win either.
In the make believe world of whatifsports, the Broncos gained more yards on the ground (nearly 200 with a generous donation from Mad Doug Martin) than they did through the air (165 and a pick for Kellen Moore). Much more realistically, Ian Johnson had two rushing touchdowns despite not leading the team in rushing yards.
A human Moore was not enough to overcome a prolific Jeremiah Johnson; the Oregon running back was named player of the game for his 130 yards and two touchdowns. After tying the game with a 2-yard Johnson TD run, the Broncos let Oregon march downfield (on what I can only imagine were several roughing the passer penalties) to kick the winning field goal.
The lessons to be learned from this sim:
- Computers continue to hold a grudge against BSU for some reason.
- Kellen Moore cannot accurately be quantified by any algorithm.
- Whatifsports.com simulations were meant to be repeated until the desired result is achieved.
Speaking of lesson number three, I got a 41-24 Boise State victory on my third try.
Anyone care for best two out of three?
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Interesting
What’s weird with this is that I only see one Oregon quarterback’s stats throughout this game. I suppose that means that they never threw the ball after Masoli received his concussion in the 1st quarter.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
OT Thriller and a blowout
So… I tried the simulation twice. The first was a 3OT thriller with Oregon barely getting by. Moore threw 2 TDs and 2 INTs.
The second game was a lot better with Oregon tying the game at 3-3 in the first quarter only to let Boise State score 45 unanswered points during the remainder of the 48-3 blowout. Kellsy throws for 355 yards and 4 TDs while Masoli puts in a 7 of 15 for 81 yards and 2 INTs performance. Avery also had 98 yards on the ground.
Remene Alston with an 81 yard run in the thick of the game?
Hahaha… whatever, whatifsports…
Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Dear Joevan, Develop motor skills. Love, ATQ.
Boise State at Idaho 2008
Run 1: BSU 101 – UI 7
Run 2: BSU 84 – UI 0
Run 3: Ditto
Run 4: BSU 70 – UI 0 (UI Favoring Pass)
Run 5: BSU 86 – UI 10 (UI Favoring Run)
Run 6: BSU 62 – UI 6 (UI Balanced [typing that in one phrase just made me laugh])
Run 7: BSU 76 – UI 10 (UI Heavy Run)
Run 8: BSU 80 – UI 0
Run 9: BSU 59 – UI 3 (BSU Heavy Run, UI Favoring Run)
Run 10 with QB Bush Hamdan, RB Jarvis Hodge, RB Doug Martin, WR Tanyon Bissell, WR Michael Choate, TE Tommy Gallarda … BSU 68 – UI 17
I think I can get to love whatifsports.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
Re-Do
Everyone has to have a fancy life – even computer geeks.
Do-overs
The 2008 Duck game is one we savor. And if the What-if computer is any kind of predictor then the 2009 version will be a barn burner. I just did 24 iteration with at least three of each offense and the likely returning players. I set the parameters just as I think we will see on game day. 85 degrees, no wind and no precipitation. BSU won 80% of the games with an average overall margin of 12 points with an average score of 23 to 35.
I fished around the rest of the BCS too playing multi games against all the biggest teams playing at home, away and on neutral fields. The ONLY teams we did not do well against over all were USC, Oklahoma, Florida and Texas. We went nose to nose with Georgia in a toss up series and thumped the likes of Tennessee, Florida State, Miami, UCLA, BYU, Arizona State, Auburn, Michigan and Noter Dame. So if last years stats are any indicator and the computer is anywhere close to accurate, BSU may legitimately claim a place in the top ten or so. The better news is the computer thinks we have an 80% chance of doing the Duck again.
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Broncos Football Schedule
@
Virginia Tech
|
Mon 09/06 | W 33 - 30 |
|
@
Wyoming
|
Sat 09/18 | 5:00 PM PDT |
|
Oregon St.
|
Sat 09/25 | TBA |
| @ New Mexico St. | Sat 10/02 | 5:00 PM PDT |
| Toledo | Sat 10/09 | 5:00 PM PDT |
| @ San Jose St. | Sat 10/16 | 5:00 PM PDT |
| Louisiana Tech | Tue 10/26 | 5:00 PM PDT |
| Hawaii | Sat 11/06 | 11:00 AM PDT |
| @ Idaho | Fri 11/12 | 6:00 PM PST |
| Fresno St. | Fri 11/19 | 6:30 PM PST |
| @ Nevada | Fri 11/26 | 7:15 PM PST |
| Utah State | Sat 12/04 | 12:00 PM PST |
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