Fiesta Bowl preview: TCU's Jeremy Kerley may be the most dangerous man on the field
by Kevan Lee on Dec 29, 2009 7:29 AM PST
in Boise State football
34 comments
Receiver/returner Jeremy Kerley has become the posterboy for TCU's speed and skill. Will he be the most dangerous man on the field for the Fiesta Bowl? Probably. Will Boise State be able to stop him? Let's find out.
After the jump, view video of Kerley in action, and discuss how Kerley compares to other Bronco opponents and what BSU might do to stop him. Think the Bronco defense can corral him? Share your thoughts in the comments.
If you have yet to discover a healthy respect for Kerley's skills, then you must not be easily persuaded by local media. All over the newscasts, the most famous TCU highlight clip is Kerley making the Colorado State punt team look ridiculous. Did the CSU punt team need much help looking ridiculous? Probably not. But for better or worse, the highlight has become the tentpole example of TCU's speed, athleticism, and playmaking abilities. And it has been a hype-builder for Kerley.
The sultry sounds of ESPN's Steve Levy not doing it for you? To the surprise of no one, TCU fans have immortalized the return, set to sepia and piano interludes.
The TD return is one of Kerley's two punt TDs on the season. He is 11th nationally in punt returns, and he led the Mountain West in both punt return average and kickoff return average.
On offense, he can pose problems in a number of ways. While mostly a receiving threat, the Horned Frogs are not afraid to line him up in the backfield and work him into the running game, as they did near the goalline against Utah:
Kerley scored on the ground against Utah, Air Force, and Virginia, and seeing him burst out of the backfield and around the edge is eerily similar to Titus Young's rushing plays. In fact Kerley reminds me a lot of a Titus Young - Jeremy Avery mashup, or what Vinny Perretta would have been like if he had more fast-twitch muscles.
Need more proof that Kerley is dangerous? Check out his high school highlights. Fortunately, Boise State does not have any high school players on its two-deep.
Kerley's ability is not lost on Bronco players.
"He's fast, he's explosive, he's wiggly," Boise State safety George Iloka said. "They're going to try to get him on the ball, so you'll have to keep your on him wherever he is in the formation."
In many ways, Kerley is similar to Tulsa's Damaris Johnson - a speedy, shifty receiver/returner who was the Golden Hurrican's main offensive weapon. Johnson's stats when the Broncos came to town were decent enough:
4 rushes, 41 yards, 4 catches, 59 yards, 1 TD, 19.5 avg on kickoff returns
Yet, apart from a couple big plays in the first half, Boise State was able to slow him down considerably and take him out of the game. The Broncos could end up using the same strategy for Kerley as they did against Johnson.
So how will the Broncos defend Kerley? They have plenty of options.
- Have Kyle Wilson shadow him. Why not matchup Boise State's best defender on TCU's biggest weapon?
- Have George Iloka shadow him. Iloka has earned a reputation as one of the best tacklers on the team, and he has been a big part of the gameplan for stopping offensive stars like Nevada's Colin Kaepernick.
- Double-team him on passing plays. Boise State might have an entirely different gameplan for stopping the run, including running plays for Kerley. If so, doubling Kerley with Brandyn Thompson and a safety over the top could be enough to force Andy Dalton to look at other options.
- Directional punt and rugby punt. Minimizing Kerley's impact in the punt return game will be all up to Kyle Brotzman. When his punting is on, he is one of the best in the country. If he is on for the Fiesta Bowl, Kerley could get shut down pretty easily.
- Squib kick on kickoffs. It is harder to keep the ball away from Kerley on kickoffs, at least not without sacrificing field position. My vote is for the Broncos to kick it away because they have been more than capable of covering kickoffs this season (save for one against LaTech).
Then there's this: Is Jeremy Kerley worth gameplanning over?
I'm sure that the question will bring me loads of TCU hate mail, but bear with me. Apart from his play on special teams, Kerley has not put up eye-popping stats on offense. He is a playmaker, but he is not a star. Below are Kerley's season stats. Click here for the game-by-game breakdown from ESPN.com.
To recap, Kerley has a) not had a 100-yard receiving game, b) not had more than 500 receiving yards on the season, c) only scored five total offensive touchdowns, and d) averaged less than 4 yards per carry.
TCU's offense is very much run-first, which is why you might explain away the low receiving numbers. But still, with all the talent and playmaking abilities that Kerley is rumored to have, shouldn't his stats reflect a greater ability to chew up yards, make catches, and score touchdowns?
The question for Justin Wilcox and Co. comes down to this: Do you gameplan against TCU's offensive scheme or do you gameplan against its most dangerous player? What would you do? Kerley could very well be the most dangerous man on the field for the Fiesta Bowl, but if he can be neutralized in the kicking game, does he have enough left to warrant his own gameplan on offense?
I say no. I would rather see the Broncos find a way to slow down TCU's multi-faceted running attack. What is your take? Let's discuss.
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I don’t think its much to worry about. Kerley has skills, welcome to Division I football.
Philip Livas, Damaris Johnson, Chastin West, Freddie Barnes, etc. Several team have their respective playmakers, and one-play burners. Boise State’s defense has practiced against Titus, Pettis, Martin, Avery, the list continues. All those guys have great playmaking ability.
I think you game plan to shut down the run and make Dalton be pocket passer. He’s improved this year, but he is more of a scrambling dual-threat type. Masoli or Kaepernick ring a bell? The Broncos have been adept at taking these types of guys out of their game. If they can squash the running game early, build a lead, and make Dalton beat them with his arm, IMO, that givs them the best chance to win. The only problem seems to be that at times their ability to stop the run is, shall we say, less than impressive.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
by Mikrino on Dec 29, 2009 8:30 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Make Dalton Beat You with His Arm, Please
Focus on stopping the run by trying to get past Marshall Newhouse, Marcus Cannon and company on the offensive line. Please. Dalton has Jimmy Young, Antoine Hicks and Evan Frosch, all of whom are award-winning wide-outs from whom to choose. Then there’s Ryan Christian, who flies under the radar. And, by all means, ignore Jeremy Kerley when he lines up wide.
So, please, focus on stopping Matthew Tucker, Ed Wesley and Joseph Turner. Please.
Fear the Frog!
by SammyOBrien on Dec 29, 2009 9:09 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Im confused..
what awards have Jimmy Young, Antoine Hicks, and Evan Frosch won? Enlighten me, please.
Haha, clearly you dont think stopping the run would slow TCU’s offense down. Since you’re more familiar with TCU than we are, how would you game plan to slow the TCU offense down?
by Drofdarb23 on Dec 29, 2009 9:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't have a clue
but Clemson and Air Force found something. Both overcame TCU having better yardage on the ground and through the air.
Both are top 10 passing defenses and middle of the pack run defenses in yards per game. Clemson benefited from 60 extra yards of penalties at critical times and Air Force benefited from three uncharacteristic TCU turnovers.
Kerley is not their only passing threat. They have six different receivers they like to get the ball to more than once per game.
TCU is scary good. National Champion good.
If Boise State beats TCU this year they will have beat, in my opinion, the best team in the nation.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
by utesfan100 on Dec 29, 2009 10:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Weather Played A Role
In Clemson, there was a driving rain storm. As I’ve stated elsewhere, we played Air Force at the base of an advancing glacier.
But, we beat SMU soundly in a driving rain storm, too. (My skin has just recently recovered from the pruniness I picked up at that game.) I can only hope that, as the season has progessed, we’ve gotten more maturity to battle the penalties and turnovers.
Fear the Frog!
by SammyOBrien on Dec 29, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Awards
Drofdarb,
Jimmy Young, Antoine Hicks and Evan Frosch were MWC All-Conference selections.
Fear the Frog!
by SammyOBrien on Dec 29, 2009 10:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm..
by all-conference you meant all-conference honorable mention? I see Kerley was the special teams player of the year, but Jimmy Young, Antoine Hicks, and Evan Frosch arent mentioned until the
honorable mentionportion of this list. http://www.themwc.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/120109aaa.html
by Drofdarb23 on Dec 29, 2009 11:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hahaha owned again by the message board
Is there no edit or delete button on here? I always do something bone headed when trying to italicize, quote, bold, etc..
by Drofdarb23 on Dec 29, 2009 11:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe so
But honorable mention is still, um…an honor. It means they did great jobs this season and shouldn’t be overlooked as offensive threats.
by hummerofdoom on Dec 29, 2009 11:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
True.
Until you realize that Robb Akey got honorable mention as well.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
by Loque on Dec 29, 2009 2:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
an exception to every rule, bro-ham! ;)
In all seriousness, who’d have thunk Akey would get the Vandals to a bowl game? I don’t have to like him to think he did a good job this year. Wouldn’t consider him an offensive threat though.
by hummerofdoom on Dec 29, 2009 3:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't consider him an offensive threat either.
But he is quite offensive.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
by Mikrino on Dec 30, 2009 2:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Im not trying..
to say these guys aren’t good players but as an outsider looking in, it seems these guys are slightly better than average for the conference. However, is it the case that these guys just accept their roles and take their piece of pie when it’s their turn? Clearly Kerley is a threat (in my opinion, a little more as a PR & KR than WR) but the other guys appear to be more along the lines of role players (granted I am looking at stats & all-conference selections, not film or scouting reports).
by Drofdarb23 on Dec 29, 2009 11:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No, You're Right...Honorable Mention
But, as Hummer says, it’s an honor. And, as you say, they’re better than the average. I’m just saying, ignore them at your own risk.
Fear the Frog!
by SammyOBrien on Dec 29, 2009 11:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt any Boise State coaches are actually looking at our comments.
I’m simply stating my opinion.
TCU throws the ball 45% of the time. Which actually is a little lower than 2008, as is total passing yards, although not by much. Dalton did improve, I think I pointed that out. But only marginally;
2008 – 59.3%, 11 TDs, 5 INTs, 203 YPG, 2242 Total Yards
2009 – 62.4%, 22 TDs, 5 INTs, 207 YPG, 2484 Total Yards
As you can see, the only real improvement is that he threw more TD passes this year. That can realistically be attributed to several things other than Dalton himself. Receivers simply making more catches, playing against bad pass defenses, luck… you name it.
But when you get down to it, Dalton as a pure passer is average at best, and his numbers speak to that. His mobility is what makes him a threat. Boise State has historically been very good at making dual-threat QB’s, no-threat QB’s.
On the other side, TCU brings a 5th ranked Rushing attack into Glendale, averaging better than 255 YPG. Common sense tells you, or me at least, that TCU is a running team. If Boise State can put the brakes on that (big IF mind you), Their chances of winning improve, plain and simple. It’s reasonable to assume the Broncos will focus on controlling the run game and special teams, and make Dalton do something he’s rarely had to do, carry the team with his arm.
Again, its only my opinion. But Coach Wilcox if you’re reading this, WRITE IT DOWN, because I’m pretty damn important.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
by Mikrino on Dec 29, 2009 11:12 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
If Kerely is their big threat
I would double team him and have Wilson cover the other wideout. Choice between tossing at double or at our best defender. But thread of article is right on. We have to stop the run. Remember we have FRESH LEGS AND BACON. Hmm-has a certain Rogers/Hammerstein lilt to it: " Raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens/Fresh legs and Bacon all pumped up and hittin’" Knowledgeable Bronco fans should be assured about our depth in general. We lost Hayes but didnt. skip a beat. Yes, the ugly truth may be that for all the hype about our offense versus their defense, this game may come down to the prosaic can we stop their run. It be “the sad old truth/the dirty low down”.
tvmunson
by tmunson on Dec 29, 2009 9:32 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I apologize for my lapse into ebonics on that last sentence
its rare to have an opportuinty to show my bilingualness(bilinguality?)
tvmunson
by tmunson on Dec 29, 2009 9:34 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
no telling what strategy the coaches will come up with
I think it was Wilcox who said TCU’s offense can’t be stopped by removing any one element of it. Who knows how they plan to stop it, but it’s going to take every Bronco on the field doing their jobs. One thing we know is that, when challenged, this year’s Broncos, for all their inconsistencies, rise to the occasion. I expect to see great performances from Iloka, Wilson and Venable at least.
I’d love to see Dalton try and beat BSU with his arm, perhaps this would lead to another interception or three (hopefully someone faster than Hout taking one to the house).
by hummerofdoom on Dec 29, 2009 10:42 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Sounds Good to Me
If Dalton is having to beat you with his arm, that means you have dedicated some of your DBs to play up…way up. That makes it easier for the track team that we refer to as our receivers to get behind the coverage.
Fear the Frog!
by SammyOBrien on Dec 29, 2009 11:13 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
track team?
I think the Broncos All-American CB, Kyle Wilson, will be able to keep pace.
I also think Boise State’s All-Conference players, Billy Winn, Ryan Winterswyk, Winston Venable, and Jeron Johnson wil be more than capable of keeping up with the Usain Bolt’s of TCU.
There’s only one way to find out…
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
by Mikrino on Dec 29, 2009 11:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
lol
i wanna see Venable go all Venable on someone in this game…
Thank you, Nick Adenhart. You will always be remembered. #34
by howiestheman on Dec 29, 2009 1:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
There’s only one way to find out.
Fear the Frog!
by SammyOBrien on Dec 29, 2009 4:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Track team?
WOW! I watched TCU on more then one occasion and I hate to tell you this but your " track team" benifited from playing a lot of bad pass defenses. Besides, I am sure our DB’s will be ready for them come Monday.
"I think I know what you guys are trying to say.....We need to build a space helicopter." Nathan Explosion
by forseyfan36 on Dec 29, 2009 1:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Numbers speak - sometimes
Boise averaged allowing its opponents a 54% passing completion percentage. TCU won four games with a less than 60% completion average. No one would fault BSU’s pass defense for allowing TCU to do better than average, but BSU loses in that event.
Boise has a DL with 15 sacks, but he’s the whole show. And what’s he going to do when the fellow he’s after averaged nearly five yards per carry? No one’s going to fault him for having scrimmaged against a quarterback whose season was a net loss of four yards rushing. And he’s facing the blocking of an All-American and three All-MWC’s. That wasn’t there for his season. It’s unlikely Boise will hurry Dalton very much, and if he does, Boise’s secondary will be in trouble.
Boise’s secondary has yet to face an offense that could put three legitimate threats downfield. TCU pretty much offers three receivers who could play on any BCS squad as a regular pass play, and at least one available running back with high percentage hands to boot. And the whole pass play might simply be a ruse to sweep or option a run. The Boise secondary can’t have scrimmaged against such an attack because its offense can’t do that.
No opponent Boise faced in ‘09 offered a rushing offense that realistically compares to that of TCU. Certainly not Oregon, so certainly not. Any resource Boise dedicates to stopping the TCU run game leaves it open to the short pass offense and that’s fatal. Please refer to those averages if you don’t agree.
BSU’s offensive season relied on two receivers for 24 of its 40 passing TD’s, one of whom is going to play hurt if he plays at all. Further, about half its rushing yards came from one guy and he was playing behind an intact O-line. That same O-line protected Moore from defenses that form the bottom third of D-1 football. If BSU’s O-line does an average job, it will give up about 60 yards for holding – mostly for holding Hughes who only managed 11 of TCU’s 33 sacks. Good luck on meeting the averages, since that will mean 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 1 interception, and 5 tackles for loss in addition to the 60 penalty yards.
TCU’s season averages were accumulated against a schedule including seven teams in post-season play this year, six of which had won their games as of this writing. BSU didn’t face a comparable schedule in compiling its averages. If you measure closely, you won’t even argue that Oregon measured up.
BSU is a team relying on some stars to shine. They have, so far, and BSU has prospered. TCU is a team that has beaten its opponents in such a variety of ways that dedication against any of them opens such vulnerabilities as to be fatal.
It seems unlikely that the Fiesta Bowl will present the one factor that ever even slowed TCU – the weather. It does seem that BSU is confronted by some critical injury issues and that its performance is very centered on whether or not three people have a substantially better game than their stats have presented against a schedule including nothing like TCU.
I don’t look for a blowout. Boise is better than that. But I don’t think this game will be a nail biter, either. Everyone watching this needs to have ample goodies available – I just wish I’d be in Glendale.
S.
by Strategym on Dec 29, 2009 3:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah but....
TCU hasn’t faced an offense or defense as good as ours either. As far as QB’s go you haven’t faced one even close to Kellen Moore. Do you really think that playing Clemson, BYU and Utah were legit teams?
Your reputation is bloated due to the fact that no one outside of your confrence area owns the MTN. All they see is highlights. If the Airforce game had been on ESPN like our games and not on the MTN where 10 people outside of Fortworth and Colorado Springs watched it then people would see the holes and flaws that you have as well.
Don’t ramble off statisics at me either. They don’t mean sh** come game time. Ask the 2006 Oklahoma team. I’m not saying that TCU isn’t good. I have great respect for your team. All I am saying is that you have flaws just like we do so stop rambling of statistics and nonsense like your in the film room breaking down our tendancies.
The way I see it you guys remind me of a lot of Sooner fans who talked a lot of crap for a month and then left Glendale with their feet in their mouths. Good luck.
GO BRONCOS!!!!
"I think I know what you guys are trying to say.....We need to build a space helicopter." Nathan Explosion
by forseyfan36 on Dec 29, 2009 10:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice Summary
You obviously put a lot of work into that post, Strat. Thanks.
I have read a lot on this site where Broncos fans are pointing out the competition against which we built up such impressive stats. Excellent point. In the next breath (virtually speaking) they fire off Boise State’s impressive stats.
When you bash our competition, Broncos fans, look in the mirror. The WAC is not any better than the Mountain West in terms of competition. And don’t give me this crap about Oregon. One good opponent doesn’t trump six decent opponents, all of whom participated in, or will participate in, ‘09-’10 bowl games. For a good performance to be validated, it must be repeated. You did it once in the first game of the season. We did it over and over and over again (Clemson – in a bowl, SMU – in a bowl [which they won], Air Force – in a bowl, BYU – in a bowl [which they won], Utah – in a bowl [which they won] and Wyoming – in a bowl [which they won].
If statisitics were all that mattered, I could wait until Tuesday morning to check how badly TCU thumped Boise. But statistics aren’t all that matters. So, I’ll watch the game (I couldn’t make it to Glendale) to see if favored TCU can out-perform an excellent Boise State, which – despite all my rumbling – is not a foregone conclusion.
Fear the Frog!
by SammyOBrien on Dec 30, 2009 9:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We'll Talk on Tuesday
Yeah, I watched (or listened to) TCU 10 out of 12 games. We played the MWC, just as Boise played the WAC. Neither conference is a power house and the best receivers in each are primarily at TCU and BSU, respectively. I’m anxious to see what happens when we play each other.
Fear the Frog!
by SammyOBrien on Dec 29, 2009 4:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Jack Joyner-Kersey track team, maybe.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
by Loque on Dec 29, 2009 3:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Funny You Should Mention Her
A few of our sprinters are world-record holders. (Too bad they’re not all on the football team!)
Fear the Frog!
by SammyOBrien on Dec 29, 2009 4:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Last I looked
The only kind of sprinter that would even kind of matter in a football game would be the 100 and 200 m races. And if I remember right Mr. Bolt dosn’t attend TCU. Please tell me which world record holders your talking about. And even if they were that fast it dosn’t translat into great football player if they can’t catch the ball. My brother runs track in college and he runs a 4.3 40 but it dosn’t mean he would be a great WR.
"I think I know what you guys are trying to say.....We need to build a space helicopter." Nathan Explosion
by forseyfan36 on Dec 29, 2009 10:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Put Your Shirt Back On
The championships of which I speak are the 220 (I think) and 440 (I think) relay teams. The fact is, TCU has a nationally recognized track team. But, no, they’re not all on the football team. And, anyway, that doesn’t necessarily translate to the football field. (It just sounds good!)
Bob Hayes was the last track guy I’m aware of that made an impression on the NFL. And, while that impression was HUGE (Hayes is the reason that the zone defense was developed), it was a LONG time ago. Track supremacy doesn’t equal football supremacy.
I haven’t paid enough attention to the details of Boise State’s excellent football program to comment with anything more than my gut feel. And my gut feel is that defenses (TCU’s #1 defense) win championships, not offenses (Boise State’s #1 offense). But anything you or I say is not going to change what happens on the field this Monday.
Surprise, surprise…my money’s on the Frogs and yours is probably on the Broncos. (Imagine that!)
Fear the Frog!
by SammyOBrien on Dec 30, 2009 8:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And, my bad, neither the 220 nor the 440 is a "sprint."
Fear the Frog!
by SammyOBrien on Dec 30, 2009 8:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
On Your Mark, Get Set...
I’m looking forward to it! See you (virtually speaking) on Monday!
Fear the Frog!
by SammyOBrien on Dec 29, 2009 11:50 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Track
Unless there NCAA and AAU rules have changed, four individuals run 110 yards each in the 440 Relay, thus its sobriquet – the Sprint Relay.
The last 220 relay I heard of was run by 6th graders along with the eraser shuttle.
On the other hand, the 220 hurdle event is regarded as the most grueling of sprint races – with obstacles.
A sprint is simply a race with no pace, run all out. Any who have tried it will argue that the open 1/4 is more difficult than the 220’s – it hurts longer. Quarter-milers give up little to the 100 meter boys.
The questions about speed in football relate to three distances – 1 yard, 10 yards, and 40 yards. Linemen are all about who can move the first yard the fastest. Look for forty yard speed as a measure of running backs and linebackers and you’re looking in the wrong dimension – that expertise is made of 10 yards faster than any of your opponents. Now the wow boys do need forty yard speed and forty yard speed is much easier to time.
If you’re about winning, you match the measure to the task. Losers miss that one. And Neither Peterson nor Patterson miss a trick – believe it!
by Strategym on Dec 31, 2009 7:22 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
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