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In the midst of the media's TCU crush, LA Times' Chris Dufresne stands alone predicting a Boise State win

Two themes are becoming increasingly clear this holiday season: ABC Family's made-for-TV Christmas movies are unintentionally hilarious, and everyone and their mother is picking TCU to win the Fiesta Bowl.

Chris Dufresne from the LA Times seems like the only one refusing to play along. So what is all the media seeing that Dufresne is not? Find out after the jump how Dufresne made his choice, what his prediction said, and weigh in on how you think the media sees this matchup.

Star-divide

Shun the unbelievers

CBS Sports compiled a panel of experts ("experts" being a loose term considering the group consists of Gregg Doyel and someone whose title is "on-air talent") to weigh in with picks for all 34 of the bowl games (HT: Finloopio). Among their unanimous picks were Central Michigan, Ohio University, Texas Tech, and good old TCU.

  • J. Darin Darst: TCU
  • Dennis Dodd: TCU
  • Gregg Doyel: TCU
  • Jason Horowitz: TCU
  • Johnny Rosenstein: TCU

USA Today's Erick Smith also graced the Internet with his 34 bowl predictions, including a Fiesta Bowl nod for the Horned Frogs. Judging from his explanation, do you think he has watched any Boise State games this year?

There was a strong argument to be made that the Horned Frogs were more deserving of a title shot than their Texas neighbors in Austin. TCU is so good because it has been dominant in all three phases. The Broncos will have to play as well as they did against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl three years ago to win. TCU 28, Boise State 21.

The Horned Frogs are still favored by 7 points by the oddsmakers, and it seems like everyday someone new comes out with a prediction of a TCU win. Any ideas why?

OBNUG reader Loque had an interesting theory.

I can see how Boise can beat TCU. I mean, they have a chance. But even I know it’d be ridiculous to "predict" a Boise win. Both teams match up very well on both sides of the ball and this game is really a pick ‘em. Of course, TCU gets the lean due to the media touting of the "other team from Texas." I would be very surprised to see anyone pick Boise. If it’s a pick ’em game, the odds are against us Broncos.

The media does love their Texas football teams, and with the Horned Frogs being closer to national championship consideration at the end of the year than the Broncos were, it makes sense that predictions would go TCU's way if people are indeed viewing the Fiesta Bowl as a pick 'em.

What other theories do you have? Does the media view TCU as a far superior team to Boise State? Is the matchup one-sided in a lot of people's eyes? How much does TCU hype have to do with these picks?

Save us, Chris Dufresne

Fortunately, not everyone is riding the TCU bandwagon. Los Angeles Times writer Chris Dufresne, a Boise State fan all season long, is siding with the Broncos for the Fiesta Bowl.

Boise State (13-0) vs. TCU (12-0) -- Boise State out to avenge last year's one-point Poinsettia loss and position team for national title run in 2010. Winner: Boise State

Dufresne's methodology provides an interesting thought on the matchup. He chooses games based on a "want to be there" factor. The teams that think too highly of themselves and come in with a sense of entitlement are the ones he typically picks to lose. For instance, when a BCS team with January bowl aspirations gets stuck playing a non-BCS team before Christmas, Dufresne would pick the upset (in this case, Utah over Cal). Dufresne is wise enough to admit that the system doesn't always work, but in a lot of ways his methodology makes sense.

Can you use the "want to be there" factor for TCU in the Fiesta Bowl? Some might argue that TCU feels it belongs in the national championship game and that a Fiesta Bowl trip is an inadequate runner's up award. In that sense, you could reason that the Broncos stand a good shot at upsetting the Horned Frogs who may not play 100 percent come January 4.

Will this happen with TCU? What do you think? No doubt Gary Patterson will do his best to prevent this from happening, but as Dufresne points out, these college rosters are filled with teenagers and twentysomethings. In many ways, it will be up to the players on how they respond.

Your turn

What do you think about Dufresne's reasoning? Why do you think the rest of the media is siding with TCU? Share your thoughts in the comments.

0 recs  |  Comment 31 comments |

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I think the media

 is mostly siding with TCU because they still don’t know much about them, or BSU for that matter. Fortunately for Bronco fans, ‘we don’t take counsel in our fears, our naysayers or the unknown.’

 People fear what they don’t understand so they do the only logical thing and side with the team that is ranked higher and seems more impressive. Although TCU almost blew it to Air Force and Clemson in a couple games.

Shame they have such a narrow looking glass.

They’re only going to make BSU’s victory that much sweeter (knock on wood)

"Gandhi didn't take a knee, Martin Luther King didn't take a knee, Thomas Edison didn't take a knee, and I sure as hell am not going to take a knee." - Dan Hawkins

by BoiseState on Dec 18, 2009 8:39 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

Any Coach Pete quote

deserves a rec (or 5 million)

"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale

by Loque on Dec 19, 2009 2:58 AM PST up reply actions  

"Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain."

Whenever you see the public ALL going in one direction, go the other way.

The media, and the majority of the public, are going with TCU because of what I call the “Wizard of Oz” factor. That conference gets to hide behind this giant curtain of a TV contract and nobody gets to see how mediocre they really are. We all know about the Mtn. West’s amazing TV contract. A large majority of America has never seen TCU, or the Mtn West for that matter, play one minute of football all year. All they see/remember is Utah trouncing an uninterested Bama team in last year’s Sugar Bowl, and the box score from TCU’s wins over teams like NM, UNLV, SDSU, Wyoming, Virginia, and Texas St.

That “veil” that the Mtn West enjoys helps them when it comes to public perception. See: 2008 Utah. Living in Vegas, I get to watch selected Mtn West games. I watched Utah struggle big time with Oreg St, NM, TCU and Michigan (which we all saw. Oh, wait, ABC does that awful regional coverage plan. You suck ABC!). The only time the country got to see Utah up close and personal, they destroyed a Bama team that obviously left their hearts in Atlanta. Good for them, they took advantage of the system and benefitted BIG TIME. I still don’t think that was a great team and I still don’t think they were the best team in their own conference and I honestly think Boise would’ve handled Utah.

Also, let’s be completely honest here, the Mtn West is really not much better than the WAC, if at all.

Don’t get me wrong, TCU is a really good team. We know that from last year. Their D is fast and tough, but they essentially have done this year exactly what BSU does every year: Beat up on lesser competition in their conference. The only difference is that BSU gets over analyzed and criticized by the large number of people watching on ESPN. TCU games get critiqued by almost nobody. The fact is their best win IS NOT as impressive as the Bronco’s best win. It’s going to be a great game with 2 very evenly matched teams and anyone who is predicting a blowout is a moron.

  

by MooreWalksOnWater on Dec 18, 2009 8:57 AM PST reply actions  

Good point.

I also thought Boise would have taken care of Utah, because even though TCU lost to Utah last year, many (including me) thought TCU was the more deserving team. (All TCU did was get penalties and watch their offense stall last year, “re-… remember that?”)

But. No rec cause even though I’m sure Coach Pete said “veil” once, it doesn’t count.

"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale

by Loque on Dec 19, 2009 3:02 AM PST up reply actions  

What's getting lost in the infatuation is this,

TCU’s 12-0 record is really no better than Boise State’s 13-0. The Broncos are continually discounted or their perceivably weak schedule, yet TCU’s only nominally better top to bottom. Better nonetheless, but not by much. Let’s explore;

Virginia- 3-9, 118th in Total Offense, 56th in Total Defense
Colorado St.- 3-9, 81st, 78th
UNLV- 5-7, 80th, 115th
SDSU- 4-8, 87th, 71st
Wyoming- 6-6, 112th, 83rd
New Mexico- 1-11, 104th, 101st

That is six opponents that TCU faced that basically have no Offense or Defense. Throw in Texas State (FCS), and you’ve got a fairly creampuff schedule. Now before someone bumbles through a post with exacerbation, keep in mind I’m not saying Boise State’s schedule is better, only similar. Which makes me wonder why TCU is being adorned with national praise for this year’s run, and being included in National Title talk. Especially when you consider that the Broncos have been doing the same thing 3 of the last 4 years.

Is TCU’s Defense better statistically? Sure.
Should they be favored to win? Probably.
Do I think Boise State has their work cut out for them? Sure. Just as TCU does also.

Everybody may be predicting a TCU win, but nobody is predicting a blowout. In fact, in all the predictions I’ve seen has Boise State covering the 7 point spread. Which intimates to me that while TCU is seen as the popular pick, the Broncos are still going to make this a game.

TCU’s has a had a great season and they are a great team, I have no doubt.
What they haven’t faced all season, is another great team. Enter Boise State.

I can’t wait… GO BRONCOS!

Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)

by Mikrino on Dec 18, 2009 9:03 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

Mikrino gets 100% in my:

People With a More Realistic Perception of TCU Than the Media and the Fans Poll

by MooreWalksOnWater on Dec 18, 2009 9:10 AM PST up reply actions  

WhaaATTT!?!

You didn’t even MENTION Clemson! They’re 8-5 this year!!!

"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale

by Loque on Dec 19, 2009 3:05 AM PST up reply actions  

In the tough ACC!

"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale

by Loque on Dec 19, 2009 3:05 AM PST up reply actions  

With darkhorse Heisman, CJ Spiller

(not a racial slur)

"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale

by Loque on Dec 19, 2009 3:05 AM PST up reply actions  

Who scored just as many times as TCU!

"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale

by Loque on Dec 19, 2009 3:06 AM PST up reply actions  

Both Teams Are Highly Motivated

Both teams will be highly motivated, come game time. Don’t count on TCU being too disappointed about not being in the NC game. This is their first BCS bowl, and that’s inspiration enough for them. With all the NC mentions this year for the Frogs, a Fiesta Bowl win will probably get them there next year. The Frogs are motivated.
 The same motivation is driving the Broncos.
 Coach Pete is a great motivater and strategist, but Coach Patterson is an equally good coach.
 The Frogs are a little more mature, as a team. Patterson recruits fast athletes, and then finds a position for them. They are big, physical, fast, and well coached. That makes them equal, to superior, to the Broncos, on the surface.
 The Bronco’s advantage lies in how Coach Pete recruits and prepares his teams. All the Bronco players have a lot of heart. Coach Pete wouldn’t have considered them without that quality. Coach Pete is an awesome coach, especially when he has a lot of time to prepare his team for a game. Ask Oregon or Oklahoma. When the Broncos take the field on January 4, they will have a good game plan, coupled with an iron will to win, and they will be playing their hearts out to make it happen.
  TCU is not an inferior team, but the question really is, will they be the better team on the 4th?
  TCU fans will pick TCU to win, and Bronco fans will go with the Broncos. Both teams have earned that loyalty from their fans. Both teams are that good.

by TitoRay on Dec 18, 2009 9:04 AM PST reply actions  

i'm glad for the underdog role

BSU hasn’t been the underdog much in this season. were they in the Oregon game? see how that came ou?

anyway, bulletin board material. motivational tools. bsu was favored last year (right?) and look what happened. i take no heed.

by Grindhouse on Dec 18, 2009 9:15 AM PST reply actions  

Media Curtain

I also think the media’s overwhelming lean towards TCU is due to media coverage. However, I think it has more to do with seeing BSU than not seeing TCU. Every time Boise got a chance this season to make a statement in front of a national audience, they played poorly. Couple that with only ready box scores of TCU games, and the love affair begins.
That said, I saw the TCU/Utah game. I totally understand the love affair. TCU is not just a solid team. They are very good, and the will not beat themselves. I hope our boys bring everything they’ve got. Can’t wait til 1/4/10!

by casketbase on Dec 18, 2009 11:27 AM PST reply actions  

Utah Game

I watched that one also and people would have to be retarded to think that that Utah team is the same one that beat Alabama last year. TCU is in the same boat this year that we are in every year, big fish mixed with 2 medium fish surrounded by a bunch of guppies. I think that this is a much more evenly matched game then most media types admit. I think Kellen gives us a huge advantage. I’m sorry but Andy Dalton is nothing more then a poor mans red headed Tebow. This year he will not be running a much as he did last year because Mr. Venable or Vegetable as my nephew calls him is going to demolish him. TCU is a good team but they are a lot of hype built up by people who have never watched a single TCU game. Go Broncos!

"I think I know what you guys are trying to say.....We need to build a space helicopter." Nathan Explosion

by forseyfan36 on Dec 18, 2009 6:05 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree.

Both Utah and BYU have been playing extremely mediocre football this year.

Sometimes I even wonder why I’m picking Utah over Cal in the P-Bowl. Oh, right. This is why.

"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale

by Loque on Dec 19, 2009 3:09 AM PST up reply actions  

Media darlings

Why is TCU the media darling this year? Because of Utah’s beat down of Alabama last year and TCU running the table in the MWC this year. Why aren’t the Bronco’s? Even though the Broncos have been dominent for the past few years and they have had better national coverage the past few years the Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma was so long ago in CFB time. I think this game is going to be great. It’s not going to be a blowout. In regards to Dufresne pick…I think he is tapping into one of the LA medical marijuna facilities because he picked against UCLA, USC (not smart in LA, but I love it) and he picked the Broncos. Go Frogs!

by nkdsmith on Dec 18, 2009 11:38 AM PST reply actions  

Does anyone rember 1-1-2007 ???

We were underdogs that day also or am I wrong.
Fear not I say. On 1-4-2010 we WILL BE VICTORIOUS!

by DUKE02DEUCE on Dec 18, 2009 4:26 PM PST reply actions  

Class Acts

This year’s Fiesta Bowl will be a terrific game between to teams and coaches that are class programs

by 2Frogs69 on Dec 18, 2009 5:27 PM PST reply actions  

USC and TEXAS

Remember the build up to that NC game? All anyone talked about was USC and how they are the greatest team ever and how Texas has no chance. USC was all ESPN could talk about. Remember how it ended? I will admit I like USC and I was rooting for them and screaming at the TV on that 4th and short when they went for it and REGGIE BUSH WASN’T EVEN ON THE FIELD! My point is this, let the media talk the Frogs up and let it all go to their heads. I think that’s what happened to us in the Hawaii Bowl the year after out Fiesta Bowl win. We need to be confident that the coaches and players will be ready for this game and TCU will come in thinking that they are just gonna walk all over us in this one. But, like Corso always says………

NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND!

Go Broncos!

"I think I know what you guys are trying to say.....We need to build a space helicopter." Nathan Explosion

by forseyfan36 on Dec 18, 2009 5:57 PM PST reply actions  

go bronco's

i have said since we upset oregon on day 1 that we were better than tcu. there big wins over clemson and virginia do not match up against our big win against the Pac 10 Champion. I do think TCU is very good, but I am not buying into there hype. Looking foward to another great Fiesta Bowl!

by bsudayas on Dec 18, 2009 6:40 PM PST reply actions  

My take.

Oh, wait. Can I have another take?

Some might argue that TCU feels it belongs in the national championship game and that a Fiesta Bowl trip is an inadequate runner’s up award … What do you think? No doubt Gary Patterson will do his best to prevent this from happening…

I commented before somewhere (here or Twitnerd), that I found it extremely laughable that Coach Patterson was using “We can be #1 AP!” as motivation for his team. If I were a player, I’m not sure I could buy that. It would sound all too much like smoke and mirrors to me (which, it is. No way Texas beats Bama and TCU moves ahead of them).

That said, I haven’t seen any TCU player quotes, other than those from right after the BCS Selection announcement, when the players weren’t too happy. Boise players, on the other hand, don’t feel shafted (although, you would think they have a bigger argument after last year snub and that this year could also be a snub in the NC game, too)… they want revenge.

However, although it is likely that TCU won’t be wanting to play this game more than Boise players, it’s never an excuse if your team doesn’t show up on the field (Suck it, Saban – Jan 2009).

"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale

by Loque on Dec 19, 2009 3:17 AM PST reply actions  

random thoughts

I should have known Dufresne would be the one to stick up for BSU. I think they are definitely victims of media perception. TCU is a monstrous team, but I think the media has taken their storyline and hyped them up. BSU is a monstrous team, but their games against Davis and Tulsa hurt them severely in the media. I don’t see TCU coming out unmotivated. The two things BSU has done well all year long are staying ahead on turnovers and keeping Kellen sack-free. I am not saying the nation’s best defense won’t get any sacks on Kellen, but if these two trends hold, I like the Broncos’ chances. BSU will have to play an Oregon game and not a Davis game to win. Or better yet, a first two-and-a-half quarters against Oklahoma and not a last one-and-a-half quarters against Oklahoma.

by hummerofdoom on Dec 19, 2009 6:56 AM PST reply actions  

As an outsider

why wouldn’t they be favored. They beat you last year, and the score was closer than the game. Sure, these are two different teams, but the point is that TCU was not overwhelmed by the Boise offense. They did not have as impressive a win as Oregon, but they plyed a much tougher schedule. I would expect even you guys to admit that. And they got stronger as the season progressed even.

Having said that, of course you can win this game. You could blow them off the map even. I expect you to have an A-class game plan and to have learned from last year and I think you might have the edge in motivation. But to get upset that many folks see them as the favorite as crazy, is crazy.

"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz

by StoopsMyAss on Dec 19, 2009 11:40 AM PST up reply actions  

Query.

Why does everyone say the score was closer than the game or something to that effect?

If I recall, both teams did not have their best of nights and the game could have gone either way at any moment. But the defenses played stellar. Jeron Johnson was allll over the place. You look at the stat sheet and say, “Man, TCU was wiping Boise’s butt.” But, had those people watched any other game last season, it was quite clear we have a “bend, not break” defense.

In the end, TCU was the better team, but saying it wasn’t even close is dead wrong. And now, StoopsMyRear, we’re talking about perception again, lol.

"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale

by Loque on Dec 19, 2009 12:21 PM PST up reply actions  

"the score was closer than the game"

“…but saying it wasn’t even close”

please quote my rear better next time

"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz

by StoopsMyAss on Dec 19, 2009 1:03 PM PST reply actions  

Dalton vs. Moore?

Which guy would you rather have for the big game?

A no brainer.

by BSU Alumni stranded in Portland on Dec 19, 2009 3:34 PM PST reply actions  

Moore, of course.

But I would LOVe to have Hughes in Orange and Blue.

"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale

by Loque on Dec 19, 2009 9:06 PM PST up reply actions  

From what I understand he is hosting a charter bus caravan that is trying to put at least one former BSU player on each bus to AZ

by Yamani_luvbsu on Dec 21, 2009 8:04 AM PST up reply actions  

They have 8 buses booked so far I've heard.

Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)

by Mikrino on Dec 21, 2009 2:02 PM PST up reply actions  

it will be a great game because both teams are fast and tough, but...

don’t complain about TCU’s SOS or opponents. That’s the definition of the pot calling the kettle black. If Boise was in the MWC, they would be 1a and 1b with TCU. This should be the MWC title game. Yeah, if you Bronco lovers want to get excited, check out next year’s potential starting positions http://www.nationalchamps.net/2010/earlybird/index.htm. Awesome.

by Mattreedah on Dec 20, 2009 10:50 PM PST reply actions  

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