Big 10 expansion: Could this be the impetus for Boise State leaving the WAC?
by Kevan Lee on Dec 14, 2009 7:33 AM PST
in Boise State football
Email
PrintConference realignment speculation is always a blast, kind of like fantasy football before the season actually starts and you realize what a horrible, horrible mistake you've made in picking Steve Slaton (conference realignment parallel: adding NMSU, Utah State, and Idaho to the WAC).
But in its early stages, realignment theories are the offseason hope that keeps fanbases going, and the trickle-down effect of one conference's decisions can have a far-reaching impact. Could the Big Ten's plans for expansion aid a Boise State move to the MWC? What situations can you foresee that would get the Broncos out of the WAC? Join me after a jump for a list of the Big Ten's candidates and some theories on what could go down.
Big Ten commissioner Jim Delaney spilled the beans about the conference's Manifest Destiny, hinting that the move might be a serious one since the Big Ten Network is set to debut next year on a channel package that you probably don't have.
"I think we need to look at it in the next year," he said during a wide-ranging interview with Register reporters.
Adding a 12th team likely will be revisited because of the network, which is scheduled to launch Aug. 30, Delany said. An additional big-name university in a large television market means more exposure for the network and its sponsors.
Speculation has already begun about which teams the Big Ten might target. In no particular order, here are several that have been tossed about by sites like Dr. Saturday and FanBlogs:
- Notre Dame
- Rutgers
- Boston College
- Navy
- UCONN
- Syracuse
- Pitt
- Cincinnati
- Louisville
- Missouri
Obviously, the immediate move of one of these schools does not affect the Broncos, but the dominos that would fall afterwards certainly might. What situations can you foresee that would get the Broncos out of the WAC? Here are some that I came up with. Add your own in the comments:
- The Big Ten takes Missouri from The Big XII. The Big XII takes TCU or Colorado State from the MWC. The MWC adds Boise State.
- The Big Ten takes Louisville from the Big East. The Big East takes a C-USA team like Memphis or Houston. The C-USA takes a MAC school. The MAC takes a MWC school. The MWC adds Boise State.
- The Big Ten takes Boston College from the ACC. The ACC takes East Carolina from C-USA, C-USA takes a MAC school, the MAC takes a MWC, the MWC adds Boise State.
Adding an independent school like Notre Dame or Navy probably won't change anything for the Broncos, but the potential move of other schools at least opens the door for the possibility of NCAA-wide realignment. Think the Big Ten expansion gives the Broncos a better chance to bolt the WAC? Share your thoughts and theories in the comments.
38 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
i don't see an MWC team leaving for the MAC
by Jeremy Mauss on Dec 14, 2009 7:52 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Nor do I see Missouri leaving the Big 12 – especially since they already have some very good rivalries built up. But should it happen, I could easily see the Big 12 going after TCU.
For my money, I still think the three-team expansion with a conference championship in Vegas is the way to go. Boise and Nevada are the easy grabs, and I like Houston or SMU to further the Texas ties.
by David Hooper on Dec 14, 2009 7:55 AM PST up reply actions
I don't see Missouri leaving either but....
Since we are dealing with hypotheticals here. If Missouri leaves for the Big 10 then that would leave only 5 teams in the Big 12 North. Adding TCU would be a good fit but that is another tough South school and I don’t think that the teams in the south would be up for that. The Big 12 south is probably the toughest division in CFB. If TCU came in the then probably Oklahoma State would have to move to the North division to keep things even. I don’t see that happening. In this hypotheticals situation why would the Big 12 just invite BSU to join the North Division and be done with. You’re a little out of the way but that would definately make the north more competitive and make for a great Conference Championship game each year.
That is another good possibility
especially with BSU already on the open market for a better conference.
by David Hooper on Dec 14, 2009 11:06 AM PST up reply actions
It's a shame that...
We can’t get the Big 10 to take Iowa State. That would get rid of the worst team in the Big 12 and get another good team for the North. BSU in the North would be cool.
agreed
I would add Houston over SMU because that would give The Mtn. network in a top 5 market and Houston has a football team that would be competitive right away as well as their hoops team which is above average in C-USA. TCU could go to the Big XII if Colorado gets snagged by the Pac-10 or Missouri moves to the Big 10.
by Jeremy Mauss on Dec 14, 2009 6:56 PM PST up reply actions
I have to disagree
If a North team leaves I don’t see them getting TCU which would be anothe team from the South. Although TCU has the chops to play in the Big 12 the south is already loaded. If a North Team (Missouri, Colorado, or whoever) leaves I would imagine they would go for another team the would geographically fit in the North. I don’t honestly see anyone leaving the Big 12 but since we are doing hypotheticals we could say Utah or even Boise state. With the North being so weak recently I can see the conference trying to add a good solid team to make the North as competitive as the South. It’s possible TCU could join in the above situation but I don’t think it would happen.
Personally I would love to see BSU or Utah in the North. Presently the South rules the conference but with Nebraska coming back somewhat, Kansas State is starting to turn the corner, and add BSU to the mix you would have a solid North division and make the conference championship game a must see. This years game was competitive but in most of the past years the South team has blown out the North team.
The North would be great.
However, I don’t ever foresee Utah or BYU changing conferences without the other.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
I can't see Nevada wanting to leave the WAC
Especailly if Boise leaves. Why go from playing second fiddle to playing for fourth or fifth? If BSU bolts I imagine Nevada would want to stay in hopes of taking BSU’s place as the conference bully.
If both BSU and Nevada left (along with a Fresno, Houston, or the like)
the MWC would be able to grab a couple more bowl games and probably improve the matchups. All in all, it’d be a bigger money conference with greater rewards than the WAC.
Just one possible reason.
by David Hooper on Dec 14, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
maybe a decent bowl game
The bowl situation is garbage. The Vegas bowl could really be something, but stupid Commish thinks it is too expensive for fans if the game is moved closer to New Years Day. They should easily be able to get the Pac-10 or Big XII three to play the MWC as of today if the bowl stepped up with cash and a better date.
by Jeremy Mauss on Dec 14, 2009 6:58 PM PST up reply actions
MWC team leaving for MAC
I don’t see that move either. At best it’s a lateral move, perhaps made for geographical reasons (but what team would be close to those guys?). At worst it’s a major downgrade. MWC >>> MAC. plus, MWC is on the brink of AQ status, what school wants to jeopardize that?
the only thing i could think of is Mizzou leaving, but it ain’t going to happen. why would they need to?
This is how its going to play out, if at all..
1) ND is not going to join the Big 10 so long as they can suckle at the tit of NBC
2) Missouri is not leaving the Big12, its a stronger conference and they have plenty of geographical rivals
3) Its doubtful the Big 10 would take Boston College way to far removed
The Big 10 requires members to be AAU so that significant slims down the Possible list if we look within a reasonable footprint of the conference you are left with
Big East
Pitt
Rutgers
ACC
Duke
UNC
Virginia
MAC
Buffalo
(There are all east coast teams so the conference robbed will want an east coast team)
The most obvious choice is Pitt but assume the target is going to be from the Big East or the ACC. If they pry one of those teams loose there are several conferences that might be robbed
C-USA, or the MAC
If its the MAC its going to be Temple or Buffalo
if its Conference USA its going to be ECU, UCF
The wild card here is Temple, they are football only members of the MAC so if they go the domino’s stop right there.
I think Pitt would be a good fit for the Big 10
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
I think Pitt is the most likely as well.
Not only would it set up very natural rivalries with PSU and OSU, but it would bring in a solid basketball program too.
by David Hooper on Dec 14, 2009 11:10 AM PST up reply actions
Which could be hte one reason it would not happen...
I don’t know that Pitt would want to swap out Big East Basketball for Big 10…
by Tim Riordan on Dec 14, 2009 11:12 AM PST up reply actions
It'll depend on the mindset of the decision maker there.
On the one hand, they have a sweet conference setup, which makes for great season and conference tourney play (along with enthusiastic fans). On the other hand, they’d have a much easier road to a high seed in the NCAA tournament every year because the RPI dropoff wouldn’t be that great (and could be overcome in nonconference play), but the conference record in the regular season and conference tourney would tend to be better year in and year out.
I don’t think it’s a terribly obvious decision, and it may come down to how well established the rivalries are. I’m not familiar enough with Pitt to answer that.
by David Hooper on Dec 14, 2009 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
Speaking as a Big Ten guy
Pitt has zero chance of getting a Big Ten invite. Why? Because the Big Ten’s future conference revenues are heavily based on a particular factor: getting the Big Ten Network into as many basic cable households as possible. Penn State already delivers the entire state of Pennsylvania on that front, so Pitt has the misfortune of overlapping a current Big Ten market. Any other schools that fit that description (i.e. Cincinnati, Iowa State, etc.) are also complete non-starters.
To the other points about basketball, it’s a complete non-factor. The amount of money that the Big Ten makes in football AND basketball completely dwarfs the Big East. Even still, football is the main driver in college sports revenue by many multiples over basketball (which is why the ACC was willing to water down its basketball conference by expanding for football purposes) . In today’s world, football interests >>>>>>>> basketball interests by a massive margin. If you gave the BE presidents truth serum, any of them would jump to the Big Ten immediately if they had the chance. A Big 12 school would be a little more iffy, but the Big Ten’s revenues are substantially larger than that conference’s as well.
In fact, the SEC is really the only one that compares… and that includes Notre Dame in the “have-nots”. Since most people are so focused on ND’s NBC contract, they neglect to realize that every single Big Ten school is now making nearly twice as much TV money as ND via the Big Ten Network and the ABC/ESPN contract. Seriously – Northwestern is making close to twice the TV dollars as ND. It’s a widely mistaken perception that ND has the best TV deal in the country – that might have been the case 10 years ago, but it isn’t now. The ND/NBC deal is excellent from a pure exposure perspective, but ND doesn’t make as much money as the Big Ten and SEC schools today.
What does this mean? The Big Ten is only going to expand with a true marquee brand name. Anything less would not make it worth it for the conference to split its revenues 11 ways as opposed to 12. Notre Dame is the obvious (and I believe only) choice and the chances of getting them have increased specifically because of the TV contract details that I’ve outlined above. I think there’s a 99% chance that the Big Ten will wait forever for ND. Nebraska might be a target in theory and they bring a big name, but the TV market is tiny. Syracuse or Rutgers bring the potential of getting the Big Ten Network into the NYC market (which would be a massive boon), but they have the opposite issue of Nebraska of not really being big national names for football. So, I think that brings the Big Ten back to waiting for ND to make the leap (and the conference has been around for over 100 years, so another decade or two of waiting isn’t really a big deal).
by Frank the Tank on Dec 14, 2009 11:33 AM PST up reply actions
But if the Big 10 is looking to expand its TV market, how would adding ND help? Would they see that as an opportunity to sell the Big 10 network to a national audience? If so, it seems like a very risky maneuver. I understand that there’s a national following of ND of sorts, but it’s nowhere nearly as significant as the number of people who are anti-ND. I can’t see people buying the Big 10 network in the hopes of watching ND lose – especially in the geographic regions of other conferences.
For the purposes of TV, I would see the New York market as the best opportunity for the Big 10, with either Syracuse, UConn, or Rutgers. The school itself wouldn’t really be the attractive part, but the ability to sell the B10Network to New York providers could be a very big deal. Adding a fanbase with a reasonable NY following might give enough incentive to add that market, which would then be broadcast to far more homes than just the fans of that one team.
And yes, I agree that ND’s TV deal is overplayed, though it’s not all that overplayed. Most people know that ND doesn’t get as much as it seems. And the best TV deal now belongs to the SEC, where Vandy’s TV income humiliates ND. I’d be willing to believe that the PAC-10 makes more as well, though I haven’t seen the numbers.
And as far as waiting another decade or two – that’s probably realistic. ND has given no indication of changing their tune. They’ve backed themselves into a bit of a corner, actually; joining a conference would be a concession that ‘their way’ is no longer viable, and that ND is just another school.
by David Hooper on Dec 14, 2009 1:44 PM PST up reply actions
Rutgers
If it is for TV Rutgers makes this most sense, not the Domers. Unless, like Hooper said is to try to sell the BTN on a national stage which is very risky. ND would bring in more viewers if joined but first there may be 3 games that ND is on the network plus I doubt that would convince comcast or time warner to add BTN to larger markets they are not currently in or lower the tier package.
by Jeremy Mauss on Dec 14, 2009 7:01 PM PST up reply actions
Rutgers has zero eastern following. In fact
they barely have a New Jersey following. In years past when they played the kickoff classic at Giants Stadium, Rutgers was never invited but Penn State and Syracuse were regularly invited. Rutgers faculty actually vote yearly for football to go the route of ivy level…no post season, etc. So Rutgers is a non starter. So is Missouri…they just don’t have the academic makeup to join—they’re not in the Top 100. The Big Ten would invite Syracuse, and while they are on the outer edge of the academic rankings they’re at Big Ten level. The problem is they are private. Northwestern is the only private school in the Big Ten and it’s a problem. The revenue model at private schools doesn’t hold-up in bad economic times, and they struggle to find ways to push money into sports.
ND will need a conference when NCAA goes to playoff in football. They’ll come begging to the Big Ten when that occurs, as they did in 1926 (the Big Ten said, thanks but no thanks then). If the Big Ten invites Syracuse, they will acccept. As would Missouri. The Big Ten is the most lucrative conference in America and it really isn’t even close. They have their own network, they have power, money, numbers, and of course, history (three of six winningest programs in college football history). There is a reason why the Big Ten is the at-large invite nearly every year to the BCS…$$$$.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
Syracuse does not have anywhere near the endowment of ND
private schools are a risk…ND happens to be one that is less of a risk. But, be clear, in the Big Ten, ND would be about #5 in terms of financial security and revenue flexibility. Syracuse would be 10th.
"I think it's safe to say our concerns are many." -- Kirk Ferentz
Sytacuse has paper bags.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
Syracuse is a no go...
Academically they are too far below the Big-10 standards to really join and yes the B10 may wait forever for ND and I think ND is the one school the Big Ten would do anything to take but if Kelly is successful at Notre Dame the NBC contract gets renewed and your wiath will be even longer..
If the Big 11 stole Mizzou from the Big 12, I would immediately start looking for the smoke signals from Arkansas in a move from the SEC. Although most would see SEC→ Big 12 as an at best lateral move, don’t underestimate the desire of Arkansas to A.) have a clear pipeline into Texas recruits and B.) Play Texas every year. That would leave TCU in the MWC, most likely creating a need for another SEC team (Georgia Tech? Clemson?)
why in the world
would any MWC school join the MAC? That just won’t happen.
The Big Televen would only take Notre Dame or maybe BC or maybe Pitt. UConn, Louisville and Cinci are too recent entries to “big time” football. Navy can’t be competitive year-to-year, and the conference already has their “academic” school in Northwestern. Rutgers is only as good as Schiano is, and you can’t guarantee he’ll be there for ever. Syracuse would be a historical fit, and would help in basketball (right?) but they’ve sucked too bad recently to make sense.
Missouri is more interesting, although I don’t see it. You should also consider Iowa State, though, to match up with Iowa.
In any case, no MWC team would go to the MAC or CUSA, so I don’t see how any of this helps BSU, unless the expansion team is Iowa State or Missouri, and for some reason they accept it, and then the BIG-12 takes TCU (or, maybe, BYU, or, since we’re being all crazy, Colorado State) to replace them (instead of arkansas, which as a school makes more sense in the BIG-12 than the SEC), and then the MWC takes BSU to replace them.
plus
it’d only be about money anyways, which maybe counts in Rutgers or BC (or ND, who will have to fire another two or three coaches before they are up for it), but really no one else.
moving
Why would Boise State want to move to the MW conference? That is like hitting your hand with a hammer. Look what happened to UTAH last year. Unless you are in that little “click” of the BCS you “ain’t nobody”.
If Boise joins the MWC, the MWC will be a BCS conference.
And the Fiesta Bowl might even offer a tie-in if TCU and Boise travel well this year. Between BSU, TCU, Utah, BYU, and Air Force, you could pretty well ensure a solid following for most years.
by David Hooper on Dec 15, 2009 3:09 PM PST up reply actions
Maybe all the dominoes can fall and you guys can step up into the Big Sky!
That’s a significant step up from the WAC, after all.
It’s so sad to watch a fanbase complain about lack of respect when its program is too scared to join the Mountain West.
Before you respond, let me remind you: Brian Cook called me smug, which makes me the Obama of smugness. I'm basically Smugbama.
12-1 versus MWC opponents. Lobbied to join the MWC in 2005 = Scared?
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
Lobbied again in 2008.
To all University Presidents, AD’s, and conference commissioner.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
Aussie vs. Aussie this weekend as BSU takes on New Mexico. UNM is knocking on the door of the Top...
Broncos Football Schedule
@
Georgia
|
Sat 09/03 | W 35 - 21 |
| @ Toledo | Fri 09/16 | W 40 - 15 |
| Tulsa | Sat 09/24 | W 41 - 21 |
| Nevada | Sat 10/01 | W 30 - 10 |
| @ Fresno St. | Fri 10/07 | W 57 - 7 |
| @ Colorado St. | Sat 10/15 | W 63 - 13 |
| Air Force | Sat 10/22 | W 37 - 26 |
| @ UNLV | Sat 11/05 | W 48 - 21 |
|
TCU
|
Sat 11/12 | L 35 - 36 |
| @ San Diego St. | Sat 11/19 | W 52 - 35 |
|
Wyoming
|
Sat 11/26 | W 36 - 14 |
| New Mexico | Sat 12/03 | W 45 - 0 |
|
Arizona St.
|
Thu 12/22 | W 56 - 24 |
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
