Opponent preview: Does Boise State need to make a statement against New Mexico State?
The last game on the Broncos' regular season schedule is being treated like a scrimmage by Boise State fans. New Mexico State is not expected to put up much of a fight against the Bronco juggernaut, so does that mean a BSU blowout is expected?
With Boise State on the mend, what kind of outcome do you think we'll see on Saturday? Are there any voters left to impress? Will another UC Davis performance be considered a letdown? Join me after the jump for an NMSU preview and an attempt to answer some of these questions.
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New Mexico State at No. 6 Boise State
Kickoff: Saturday, 1:00pm, TV: KTVB, ESPN360 Weather forecast: partly cloudy, high of 43 Spread: Boise State by 48 |
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New Mexico State's season-to-date
After the end of a Percocet-induced Hal Mumme tenure, the New Mexico State Aggies started afresh this season and managed to prove that the more things change, the more they stay the same.. In lieu of showing New Mexico State highlights, I think it best to include a Pop Warner football video instead. See if you can figure out which player is a metaphor for the Aggie season.
Things could be worse for New Mexico State, and in recent years they have been. The Aggies at least have three victories, albeit over teams with a combined four FBS wins. Their new coach, DeWayne Walker, seems to be the right man for the rebuilding project because he is 1) willing, 2) able, and 3) not currently fielding any other offers. Will New Mexico State be good in two years? Perhaps. Will they be good on Saturday? No.
New Mexico State on offense
- OT Dwayne Barton
- OG Joseph Palmer
- C Mike Grady
- OG Sioeli Fakalata
- OT David Norman
- TE Ronny Torres
- QB Jeff Fleming
- RB Seth Smith
- RB Victor Johnson
- WR Todd Lee
- WR Marcus Anderson
Gone is Mumme's spectacularly odd Air Raid offense. In its place is no offense at all. With a combination of QBs Jeff Fleming and Trevor Walls, the Aggies have managed to pass for an average of 91 yards per game. Give that passing offense a facepalm!
Let's move on to statistical categories where NMSU's offense is not dead last. How about rushing? The Aggies are 7th in the WAC in rushing yards and would have a 1,000-yard rusher in Seth Smith if he can bribe his way into 98 yards on the ground this week.
And there is hope for the future. Smith is only a junior, and at least two Aggie linemen will return next fall. Hopefully, they're the good ones.
New Mexico State on defense
- DE Donte Savage
- DT EJ Cannon
- DT John Finua
- DE Pierre Fils
- LB Ross Conner
- LB Jason Scott
- CB Jonte Green
- CB Chris Buckner
- CB Davon House
- S Stephon Hatchett
- S Alphonso Powell
The defense has been a much more pleasant surprise for New Mexico State, as there have been a few bright individual performances among the group. Linebackers Ross Conner and Jason Scott are both top-five in the WAC in tackles, due to opportunity and, I trust, skill. Defensive end Pierre Fils is behind only Ryan Winterswyk and Nevada's Basped and Moch on the conference's sack chart. Is New Mexico State's defense good enough to cause the Broncos problems on Saturday? Not if the Broncos come out focused and determined. Otherwise, the Aggies might surprise a few people.
New Mexico State on special teams
- P Kyle Hughes
- K Kyle Hughes
- KR Marcus Allen
- PR Marcus Anderson
Anderson leads the WAC in punt return average, about a yard ahead of Kyle Wilson. Hughes leads the WAC in punting, but he is only 9-for-14 on field goals.
Why Boise State needs to make a statement against the Aggies
Ask anyone and they will tell you that NMSU is bad. By default, the Broncos should make a statement against them ... and then put Mike Coughlin in.
Some people would argue that the Broncos need to make a statement against New Mexico State, considering the large disparity between the teams. Here are some reasons why:
- Because bowl bids are at stake. Though it looks like a BCS game is imminent for the Broncos, nothing is written in stone just yet. A blowout against the Aggies would prove Boise State's superiority to lesser FBS teams, and it would remove an excuse for the BCS committee to pass the Broncos by.
- Because the Broncos need momentum heading into bowl season. The morose after the UC Davis win hung around the team all week until they took the field again. A similar result against New Mexico State could last as long as a month, depending on which bowl the Broncos get. A statement win against the Aggies would give the Broncos confidence over the next few weeks and give their opponent another reason to worry.
- Because the Broncos need to prove they can win big without their injured stars. The Boise State offense and defense can prove a lot to themselves this week by destroying New Mexico State without key players like Austin Pettis and Daron Mackey. Pettis's bowl return is in question, and Mackey for sure will be gone. A big game on Saturday will go a long way toward quieting any dissension that this team is in trouble without those players.
Are there other reasons you can think of? Let me know in the comments.
Why Boise State does not need to make a statement against the Aggies
For sure, there are lots of things the Broncos could be doing on Saturday that would help out their team in the long-term. For example, resting players, playing things close to the vest, napping. Here are a few reasons why doing so and skipping the statement win might not be such a bad thing.
- Because the Broncos can't do anything to change their BCS position. A win is a win at this point in the season for the Broncos. There is virtually nothing in their control that could move them from No. 6 in the BCS standings. They are the lowest-ranked unbeaten team. There are no other one-loss teams in the country. The only way they could go is up, depending on what happens in front of them.
- Because the voters can't do anything about it. So what if the Broncos beat NMSU by 10? What are voters going to do? Put them behind a two-loss Oregon? I suppose you could argue that if Cincinnati loses and Boise State barely wins, the voters could keep their polls the same and not swap the two schools, but I have to think that the Bearcats would fall further than No. 6 if they lose.
- Because the game is not on national television. There is no national audience to impress, only us locals who live and die with the team.
Anything I missed? Let me know if there are other reasons.
What do you think will happen?
Does Boise State need to have a statement win this week against New Mexico State? I'm on the fence about it. Certainly, I would love for the Broncos to really hand it to New Mexico State, but I'm not convinced that it needs to happen. The consequences of a narrow win are not nearly as great as they were at the start of the season.
I guess another question to ask is: What constitutes a statement win? Would it need to be a shutout? Covering the 48-point spread? A general feeling of superiority?
What are your thoughts? Feel free to share your answers in the comments, as well as any other New Mexico State thoughts you have.
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25 comments
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Comments
Just win it.
The deal is done for the BCS invite. Coach P has had the call.
Just win it boys, try out the new receivers and DO NOT ADD TO THE INJURED LIST!
by BSU Alumni stranded in Portland on Dec 1, 2009 1:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Game planning for BCS
Never mind winning big. This gives the players and coaches an extra week to start game planning for the bowl game. Our starting lineup will change. Time to restructure, re vamp, and re organize.
Coach Pete always says,“One week at a time”. Don’t get me wrong, they will not overlook anyone. I bet they are using this week to prepare for what’s to come after NMS as well.
by ruffneck on Dec 1, 2009 2:56 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Let's take it out in style...
The boys are ready.
"After chasing sunsets, one of life's simple joys is playing with the boys." - Top Gun
by Crissie on Dec 1, 2009 3:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Ruffneck's right
We can thank the gods that we will have one game to adjust to Life Without Austin. I know Tom Scott did an analysis of this same injury to Dinwiddie; with all respect, he was a pocket passer not a wideout.We have to assume AP’s gone> Mitch doesnt inspire confidence esp after that last td flop; he looked like Joe Cocker in a lithium withdrawal on that “catch-me-not” Potter-did you see the downfield block he got? Not bad for 171 lbs and he held it for 20 mins.Let’s give him some tosses. Plus “Time for Titus”(sung to Handels’ “Messiah” “Hallelujah” chorus). Stay with me NUG’ers(ooh dont say that fast)-AP is great but we have more possession guys than speed guys. We’ll need to go TE-and Koch is good and can catch out of FB or TE along with our usual suspects. We can make that work and very easily.Plus some Martinizing-I think he and the O-line can conitnue what they started with Nev.
tvmunson
by tmunson on Dec 1, 2009 3:18 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
TIIIIIIIIIME FOR TIT-US
dun dun DUN dun, dun dun DUN dun
Love it munson…
Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle
by appleshampoo on Dec 1, 2009 8:28 PM PST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I am not sure what to think
What does Oppie say?
NMST or Nevada, you play the game and execute your strategy. Play and execute your best with the personnel you put on the field and the score ends up being the result of that.
Signature Pending
by Belexes on Dec 1, 2009 3:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Dennis Miller says "dont overthink"
1. Win game
2. Give depth players game experience
3. protect starters/2nd string impact guys
4. work on any troublesome game situations
5. after 1-4 done, run out clock in respectful manner. Any one who makes it to Div 1, regardless of where, is an exceptional athlete. 1.5 million kids play high school football; less than 3,000 go on to Div 1. They risk their lives and limbs to entertain us.The honorably vanquished have earned their dignity in an honestly contested game.
tvmunson
by tmunson on Dec 1, 2009 3:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I was being a smart alec with the thinking part.
I am sure the coaches have a handle on it. They have a better grasp of what is best for the team and their situation better than me or Oppie. I won’t speculate any further than adding smart badworded comments.
Signature Pending
by Belexes on Dec 1, 2009 4:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
A Win Is All That's Necessary
No need for anything beyond securing the win, by halftime, Then play it safe and let Coughlin do the 3-and-out drill in the second half.
Wouldn’t it be something to see Coughlin throw deep to Potter just once?
by TitoRay on Dec 1, 2009 4:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
My head might explode if he throws deep to Potter
I think I’m with you, TitoRay. This game doesn’t need to be a big win – any win will do. I’d really like it to be a blowout, but that’s the fan in me talking.
"Only film the ones that are standing, Kenneth." - Tony Perkis
by Kevan Lee on Dec 2, 2009 6:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking of the parallels between NMSU and pee wee football too...
…but I had this video in mind.
I wonder if the Aggies have practiced the blocking scheme used by #28 – nothing like a good game of “mercy.”
"...east and west is the problem, north and south the solution."
by MKingery on Dec 1, 2009 8:09 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I think I've seen NMSU run that first play before
Is there something wrong with me that I enjoy Pop Warner hits so much?
"Only film the ones that are standing, Kenneth." - Tony Perkis
by Kevan Lee on Dec 2, 2009 6:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Is there something wrong with me that I enjoy Pop Warner hits so much?
Absolutely not! I love watching and coaching my boys. My 5 year old is a little demon on a football field. I can’t wait for his talent level to catch up with his heart.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
by Mikrino on Dec 2, 2009 7:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree, nothing wrong with it...
I have probably watched that linked video 100 times over the last few days, isolating on a different person and their reaction each time I watch it. I had to watch the second hit about five times before I decided that it was not done with special effects.
I actually found the link on Pete Carroll’s twitter account – I guess it is never too early to start the recruiting process.
"...east and west is the problem, north and south the solution."
by MKingery on Dec 2, 2009 7:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess it is never too early to start the recruiting process.
I was at the parade and events after the Fiesta Bowl in 2007. I spoke with Coach Pete briefly. Mainly commending him on a job well done and such. But I also included that all three of my boys would be attending Boise State and playing football so he’d probably ought to stick around awhile.
He chuckled and said okay. I suppose he’s heard that a time or two.
But I was serious. My boys were 6,5, and 3 that day in early 2007. They suited up in August that year here in Kentucky. I coach them, and we start conditioning in June every summer. So far all three are much better defensively, which I love. See, it’s never too early!
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
by Mikrino on Dec 2, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not gonna lie,
this game is scaring me a little bit with the level of “looking past” that seems to be coming from the fans and the media. But, I trust Pete and the team leaders to keep the team focused. Let’s take care of business, kids!
Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle
by appleshampoo on Dec 1, 2009 8:25 PM PST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
That's why I think
Pete kept the WAC trophy boxed up, so that it’s not just NMSU but something to play for. Plus, if anywhere near as many crazy fans show up with bags of Tostitos as they did for our last game the year of the Fiesta bowl, it shouldn’t be hard for the team to find motivation everywhere they look.
by Cougarflounder on Dec 2, 2009 6:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the Broncos do a lot of internal-type competition stuff
that helps keep an “edge”. But remember how the karma gods treated us the last time we had an obvious mismatch(Hint: Homecoming, UC-Davis). Humility in the face of overwhelming auspiciousness(Vandals-get out your dictionary-oops you dont have one)is the proper moral tone.
tvmunson
by tmunson on Dec 2, 2009 11:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but...
Lets be honest, UC Davis is way better than NMSU!
Catch me on the BroncoNation Podcast!
by OBNUG Intern on Dec 2, 2009 11:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I see shutout written all over this one.
Boise State is averaging 44.3 points per game. Against NMSU’s anemic, 11.8ppg it’s no wonder the spread is 47 points. These guys suck against bad defenses, trust me, a shutout is a distinct possibility. AccuScore is predicting 53-7.
Also consider this before you get all worked up. Boise State has NEVER lost to NMSU. 9-0 all time. And the Broncos have shut out the Aggies the last two meetings, 58-0 and 49-0 respectively. At least they had an offense then. Now… not so much.
Sleep easy my friends.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
by Mikrino on Dec 2, 2009 6:33 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I heard Tom Scott say today
in “the Scott Slant” that BSU has scored something like 51 more touchdowns than NMSU this year. WOW.
by the collinator on Dec 2, 2009 8:50 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
The BCS doesn't dictate me anymore
In fury or thankfulness (not that that ever happened). I’m not looking for style points because we shouldn’t ever be playing for it. The only reason you would have to is to impress the BCS/Pollsters (the computers don’t care one bit about winning margin). I’m done with caring what the BCS/Pollsters think. I’ll still ridicule them when I have the chance, but it’s NOT going to affect how I enjoy pure Boise State football.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
by Loque on Dec 2, 2009 10:09 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

















