From this morning’s Reno Gazette-Journal:

“A lot of it is just confidence in knowing what we’re doing and just knowing our role and executing,” Kaepernick said in comparing the 8-0 run to the 0-3 start. “At the beginning of the season, everyone was, ‘All right, I have to go out and make big plays and put up big points.’ Now we know that’s going to come as long as we do our part.”

Key to the Bronco’s great ten year run is players knowing their part. Sounds like Ault has them believing the same thing.

However, if Boise can stuff the run, I feel confident our DB’s can handle the passing game.

The important thing for our defense to be successful is they must bring the same intensity and discipline that they had in the Oregon game. They should have no trouble being motivated and intense because, well, it’s Nevada. The discipline will be of utmost importance though. The line cannot over-pursue, they must contain Kap and not let him escape the pocket. The LB’s and DB’s must stick to assignments and not try to “help”, because Nevada is very good with misdirection and getting defenders out of position. If our guys approach this like the Oregon game it could be a blowout (like the 1st half last year). If they approach it like everyone else, well, it could be a long night. And a long off-season.

To stuff the run, we need Baker and Atkinson to have good games, play a Pittsburgh Steeler-type game (a 3-4 alignment, with Casey Hampton eating up two-three linemen on run plays). Hopefully this will be a game where all of Bacon’s hype will be answered. Heck, even Pat Hill likes the Broncos D-Line:

“One of the secrets [Boise State has] is a big defensive line that’s physical, won’t get washed up. [Its] defensive ends are 260 [pounds], tackles are 300. … Big, physical guys are what you need against [Nevada], because you have to hold your gaps. I think Boise State has those type of players.”

Another stat to keep in mind, over the last three games the Pack have only attempted 37 passes. That’s not a lot of practice for those timing routes and route running. Kaep knows he will have to throw for a Pack victory:

"We know we probably have to throw the ball this game to win," said the Nevada quarterback as the Wolf Pack prepared for its trip north to meet the undefeated sixth-ranked Boise State Broncos (11-0) on Friday night (7:05 p.m., ESPN2). "It just that the last few weeks we haven’t had to throw it. So we haven’t."

Does the Pack have the receivers to get the job done against our secondary? Not sure they do. Below are their leading WR stats.
RECEIVING REC YDS AVG TD
B. Wimberly 42 595 14.2 4
T. Session 25 291 11.6 1

Just like the pro-style 3-4 defense…

I read it, “Just like the pro-style hair-4 defense…”

would appear to be #1(based on 2 games I saw-not much to go on). KL’s article shows why we shoudl be able to. You know, not to be simplistic, but we just have good athletes. If I was forced to say what the key would be I come back to Johnson, Venable & Iloka with Venable being the “key” to the “key”(another article said Iloka; I won’t quibble). They give us options; life is options. Wilcox has had 2 weeks basically to study this. Unless some strange post-Turkey day late game Friday night spectre descends i think Broncos will have success.

I expect Nevada to go to the air first and try to establish what they can passing early. They will have more success early than they will late in the game. Everybody and their relatives know they can run. Boise will be hell bent on stopping the run. Could get all caught up inside and loose some big plays.
 
 I just don’t think Nevada can run the ball all night, start to finish and be successful. If they do, they control the clock and ultimately, the game.
 
Our defensive backs can’t loose receivers down field like they did at Utah. I’m sure even Kapi can get the ball to a lonesome receiver with nobody within 20 yards of him.

I see containing Kaepernick and limiting his scrambles to being a big key to the game. I really liked how they used Doug Martin as a spy on Kaepernick last year.

If they go to the 3-4, will Venable be the spy? Is he fast enough to contain Kaepernick?

Kaepernick has improved his completion percentage to 60%, but the success rate of those throws are under 50%. That tells me he throws a lot passes in the flat or short over the middle. I like how the Broncos, especially Jason Robinson, defends the pass in the flat and I don’t see that being successful for the Wolfpack. Nevada’s passing game doesn’t appear to be much of a deep threat, likely because Kaepernick will tuck it and run if the primary receiver is not open.

Keeping him in the pocket and making him throw will be crucial.

Nevada is only 7 of 18 on 3rd and long when passing the ball. However, they are 9 of 11 when rushing the ball on 3rd and long. I would guess the majority of those come on passing plays that break down and the 1st down is gained from a QB scramble.

If Kapi gets around the corner, it may not matter who’s on him. He’s not a man, he’s an ostrich.

The Broncos will definitely have their hands full friday night and if they play as well as they did against Utah St. there is no reason why they can’t beat them, especially at home. Go Broncos and good luck with a bowl game.

It seems like the times the defense has struggled against the run have been against teams that can also pass the ball. Oregon was completely unable to pass the ball and then they couldn’t run. Fresno was able to complete passes and Boise struggled to stop Matthews. Same with Idaho. Even though Reader threw 5 picks he still threw for over 300 yards.

Nevada is more the opposite since they run way more then pass. But I don’t think there is one key for the Boise State defense to stopping Nevada. The defense has to make Nevada one dimensional. If Kaepernick can complete passes for good yardage (not 3 or 4 yards) Boise is going to have a hard time keeping Nevada out of the end zone.

If Boise can stop Nevada on the ground like they did last year and make Kaepernick throw, they have to stop him there. If Kaepernick can start completing passes it will open up large holes for their ground game. But if he can’t complete passes it is going to be a long night for Nevada.