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Opponent preview: Can Boise State slow down Nevada's pass rush?

With so much focus on the Nevada offense, it is easy to forget that the Wolf Pack defense boasts some of the best playmakers in the conference. Can the Bronco offensive line handle Nevada DEs Kevin Basped and Dontay Moch?

Join me after the jump for a preview of the battle between the Boise State offense and the Nevada defense. (I'll get to the Nevada running game tomorrow.) And feel free to leave your thoughts on what factors might make the biggest difference on Friday night.

Star-divide

 


8-3, (7-0)

Nevada at No. 6 Boise State

Kickoff: Friday, 8:00pm MT, TV: ESPN2

Weather forecast: partly cloudy, high of 44

Spread: Boise State by 14


11-0, (6-0)

Nevada's season-to-date

The Wolf Pack got off to a disappointing start, going 0-3 against the likes of Notre Dame and Colorado State. What went wrong? Turnovers mostly, and their 8-0 run since the 0-3 start shows just how important a role turnovers can play in the final outcome (and how random fumble recoveries can be).

Chris Ault has gone from hot seat to hot commodity, Colin Kaepernick has gone from bust to the greatest running quarterback of all time, and Nevada has made good on the preseason promise of a meaningful post-Thanksgiving date against the Broncos ... barely.

During its eight-game winning streak, the Wolf Pack has still showed signs of being the Wolf Pack of old. Witness:

  • A three-point win at Utah State. The Broncos just won there by 31 points.
  • A 10-point home win over Hawaii. Boise State beat Hawaii by 45 on the road.

Still, Nevada is playing the best football of its up-and-down season, rolling to victories of 55, 38, and 43 points in its last three games. The WAC is bad. Nevada is not. That alone makes a big difference.

Nevada on offense

  • WR Brandon Wimberly
  • RB Luke Lippincott
  • RB Colin Kaepernick
  • WR Chris Wellington
  • OL John Bender
  • OL Kenneth Ackerman
  • OL Alonzo Durham
  • OL Steve Haley
  • OL Chris Barker
  • WR Tray Session
  • TE Virgil Green

By now you've probably heard that the Wolf Pack can run the ball pretty well. I'll be writing something tomorrow to that effect.

Where the Wolf Pack will have to make the most of their opportunities is in the passing game. The team's leading receiver, Brandon Wimberley, only has 595 yards (the second leading receiver, Tray Session, has 291), and Colin Kaepernick is only marginally better than he was last season. Chances are good that Kaepernick will have to throw efficiently for the Wolf Pack to win. Can he?

 

Nevada on defense

  • DE Kevin Basped
  • DT Nate Agaiava
  • DT Zack Madonick
  • DE Dontay Moch
  • DL Ryan Coulson
  • LB James-Michael Johnson
  • LB Mike Bethea
  • LB Brandon Marshall
  • DB Isaiah Frey
  • DB Mo Harvey
  • DB Doyle Miller

The Nevada defense is last in the conference in pass defense (119th in the country), but tops in the WAC in rush defense. Part of that can be attributed to opponents falling behind early. Another part can be attributed to the Nevada pass defense just being atrocious since it has always been atrocious. The potential for big plays will be there for Boise State, and with the Bronco running game firing on all cylinders, it will be interesting to see just how good the Nevada run defense really is.

 

Nevada special teams

Mike Ball is the forgotten running back behind Lippincott and Taua, but he's capable of big returns. The Broncos gave up two fake punt conversions last week. Fortunately, Nevada isn't known for stellar special teams play, but that doesn't mean they might not try something against the Broncos.

Dontay Moch and Kevin Basped in the spotlight

Moch and Basped, as any coherent Nevada fan will tell you, are THE NATION'S BEST DEFENSIVE END TANDEM BAR NONE HANDS DOWN PERIOD END OF STORY KENO. The statistics certainly show that the two DEs deserve a lot of credit for the way they have terrorized WAC backfields for the past two seasons. Here are their stats thus far in 2009:

Basped: 7.5 sacks, 10.5 TFLs
Moch: 6.5 sacks, 19.5 TFLs, 2 forced fumbles

Basped, an all-WAC first teamer last year, has done his damage in one fewer game than Moch, a reigning all-WAC second teamer.

Boise State pass protection in the spotlight

It won't do the Wolf Pack a lot of good to have two of the conference's best defensive ends if neither end can get to Kellen Moore on a regular basis. Therefore, the play of the Boise State offensive line will be a big factor in the success of the passing game on Friday. How will they hold up? Do you want the good news or the bad news first?

The good news comes to us courtesy of OBNUG reader Mikrino, who posted a FanShot yesterday with this golden nugget:

2009 National Leaders in Sacks Allowed

1. Boise State:   	11 games, 5 sacks, 32 yards lost, 0.46 sacks allowed per game

The Broncos are the best in the country at keeping sackmasters out of the scorebook. Even more impressive, Boise State has not given up multiple sacks in a single game since Oregon. The only other teams to get the Broncos were UC Davis, Tulsa, and San Jose State.

However, all this is not to say that Kellen Moore has been kept clean. While the sacks have been few and far between, the hits and hurries have not. Here is a look at the game-by-game pressure that Moore has faced.

Kellen Moore under pressure
Opponent Hits Hurries Total
Oregon 4 3 7
Miami (OH) 3 8 11
Fresno State 1 6 7
Bowling Green 0 2 2
UC Davis 1 4 5
Tulsa 2 7 9
Hawaii 3 10 13
San Jose State 5 8 13
Louisiana Tech 2 15 17
Idaho 7 8 15
Utah State 3 7 10

 

Moore has been hassled on about one-third of his throws in recent games. So perhaps the question should be: How much does pressure impact Moore? Or does pressure from certain areas make more difference than others?

I'd be curious to know what you think, but for the record, I think Moore is unstoppable when he has time to throw, he's great when faced with stiff pressure, and he's better than most when he's getting hit. The only pressure I've seen that makes a noticeable difference with his passing is pressure up the middle. Considering that Moch and Basped are edge rushers, even if they get close, Moore should be okay.

And now, the rest of the story on the Nevada defense

Moch and Basped are excellent defensive ends. There is no doubt about that. But what I find interesting is that even though they rush the passer with the best of them, the Nevada pass defense is horrible. A big part of pass defense is pressure on the quarterback. Does that mean that the Nevada secondary is exponentially worse than your average 119th-ranked secondary?

Against the run, Nevada is significantly better. Don't blow off their good rush defense stats as a consequence of opponents abandoning the run to play catch-up. Case in point: The Wolf Pack held Fresno State's Ryan Mathews to 35 yards on 8 carries before he left with a concussion in the second quarter.

A lot will be written about how nothing compares to the Nevada rushing attack, but I would argue that the same can be said of Boise State's ground game. The misdirection, handoffs, and movement when the Broncos run the ball rivals that of any other college football team for uniqueness, effectiveness, and big-play potential. If Boise State executes, I think they can run effectively against Nevada. But it won't be easy. Would you give the Broncos the edge?

Other factors

  • Some Boise State receiver will be open. Most WAC offenses have one or two great receivers who can really hurt a defense. Boise State has, what, four? Five? If Nevada chooses to focus on Pettis and Young, then Kirby Moore and Kyle Efaw can do plenty of damage in the wide open spaces that the Wolf Pack leave. Avery out of the backfield is a threat. No one can stop the quick screens and hitches to Young and Pettis. It seems like no matter how you look at it, the Boise State wide receivers win the matchup against the Nevada secondary. And it is not that close.
  • The focus on Garrett Pendergast. Against San Jose State, Pendergast struggled to block the Spartans' second-best defensive lineman, Adonis Davis. He'll probably have the matchup against either Moch or Basped, so it will be interesting to see if the Broncos leave him on an island or give him help. Advantage: Nevada.
  • Turnovers for touchdowns. Two pick-sixes were the only things that kept Nevada in the game last year when the Broncos visited Reno. Kellen Moore made a mistake against Louisiana Tech, and it cost the team a touchdown and a blowout. If the Broncos get up on the Wolf Pack on Friday, perhaps the only thing that could save UNR is a quick score off a turnover.
  • Fumbles from center. I thought we were done with that. BAD WORDS.
  • Boise State's advantage on special teams. Year in and year out, the Broncos have excellent all-around special teams. Year in and year out, Nevada does not. While the Wolf Pack are certainly improved, they are not Virginia Tech. It would appear that Young and Martin might get a couple cracks at kickoff returns, Wilson could get his hands on a few punts, and Brotzman could be called on in big spots. At the very least, Boise State needs to use its advantage on special teams to win the field position battle.

Your turn

I know there are plenty other factors to watch for on Friday night, so what ones did I not mention? What will you be watching? Can the Boise State offensive line control Nevada's defensive ends? Leave your thoughts in the comments.

0 recs  |  Comment 29 comments |

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My thoughts

I expect the tight ends to play a major role. I think they should be able to slip behind those aggressive defensive ends and make short yardage catches. Especially if the wide receivers can clear out the cb’s and the linebackers have to respect the play action. We’ll take our shots again deep but I think they will be much more patient with those passes.
 On defense, Venable has to make his tackles. He was in Utah’s backfield all night. Just couldn’t quite bring them down before they got over the line of scrimmage.

by ruffneck on Nov 24, 2009 8:33 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Tight ends? Brilliant. That would be a really good strategy. I seem to recall the tight ends being a big part of the offense against Oregon, which was supposed to have a pretty good pass rush (Will Tukuafu, et al).

Do you think Boise State will try to slow the game down and take time off the clock on offense, or will they just not worry about it and go business as usual?

"Only film the ones that are standing, Kenneth." - Tony Perkis

by Kevan Lee on Nov 24, 2009 10:49 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Another thought about the tightends...

The coaching staff could elect to use the TEs to “chip” Basped & Moch. I’ve never been “chipped” but I dont imagine it’s any fun and I’m sure it would be at least somewhat effective.

by Drofdarb23 on Nov 24, 2009 10:53 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Tight ends

The tight ends were used heavily in both Oregon games. I believe in the two games combined, all our tight ends scored TD’s. Brockel was awesome in the away game.
I’ve always wondered if coach Pete pigeon holes plays for just the right time during the course of the season. I’m hoping he has been. We’ve had several very effective plays that we have only seen a few times. I may be dreaming but I sort of expect Galarda and Efaw to have big games. I do think Boise will try to control the clock as much as they can but if both teams start fast, hello Austin Pettis and chunks of yardage.

by ruffneck on Nov 24, 2009 11:45 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

What I wonder

Boise State’s offense can put up points, no doubt about it. They will for sure against Nevada’s bad secondary.

The real questions are how much can Boise State’s defense contain Nevada’s run game? Can the Broncos keep the Wolf Pack out of the end zone?

Idaho ripped a gash into our run defense showing mortality. Who’s to say the number one rush offense in the country and arguably history won’t do the same? At least the Broncos kept Idaho out of the end zone for the most part. Can Boise State do the same against Nevada? Nevada is riding high on confidence after ripping off eight straight wins. Plus, Boise State has given up an average of 27 points per game in the last three games. In the first eight, BSU was only allowing 13.6.
Will this be another shootout game like two years ago?

Surprisingly Kaeperlegs doesn’t make me very nervous. Last week Diondre Borel did nothing more than keep the defense honest with his legs. It may surprise you to know he only rushed for 23 yards. At least Borel could throw. I’m thinking half of OBNUG is more accurate than Kaepernick. Boise State proved last year they can stop Kaepertoothpicks on the ground. If our LBs play assignment football and the D line can push up front, all will be good in Bronco Stadium on Friday night.

I can’t remember another season being under the microscope this much so forgive me for sounding slightly…paranoid. I may have more questions than answers. I’m confident our guys can counter anything Nevada throws at them.

"Hell, I can get you a toe by 3 o'clock this afternoon... with nail polish."

by Dr. Jrig on Nov 24, 2009 8:35 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

BSU Running Game

Nevada had better hope that they can contain the Bronco running attack. If they don’t and BSU has some early success running the football it is going to be a long game for the Nevada defense. If they don’t stop the run early the Bronco’s will eat them alive with play action.

The opposite can also be true. If there is a lot of early success with the passing attack it can, and in all likelihood will, open up some significant running lanes for Avery and Martin as the game wears on.

In short, I don’t see Nevada being able to keep BSU off the scoreboard. Their only hope is to turn this into a shoot out and hope to continue to score with BSU as the game progresses. Wilcox and the BSU defense have had some slow starts but by the second quarter they seem to always make the correct adjustments to neutralize whatever offense they are facing that game.

I am sure that Nevada will manage to put some points on the board but in the end I just don’t see them being able to keep pace with BSU both from an athlete and a coaching standpoint.

by Mountngrown on Nov 24, 2009 8:36 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

How do you think Boise State will play it? Pass-first or run-first?

I believe that the Broncos script their first 15 or 20 plays, so we should know in the first quarter what their strategy is. For the first time all season, it seemed like last week the plan to pass-first was actually less effective than run-first. I’m not sure the Broncos would have ever punted if they just handed it off all the time.

"Only film the ones that are standing, Kenneth." - Tony Perkis

by Kevan Lee on Nov 24, 2009 10:52 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I have a feeling they will look to establish the run first thus controlling the clock and the tempo of the game but then they may look to come out in and use the fast-break the whole game. I do think they will go to the no-huddle and try to wear Nevada down physically by the end of the first half.

by Mountngrown on Nov 24, 2009 1:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Senior day

Home field advantage capped off with senior day can’t hurt our cause.
 50% of our senior class will go pro this year!

by ruffneck on Nov 24, 2009 8:50 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

There is still the New Mexico State game Dec 5th.

Usually the Senior game is the last home game.

Catch me on the BroncoNation Podcast!

by OBNUG Intern on Nov 24, 2009 9:19 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Crap

I always sound drunk when I post……….oh, wait……..nevermind

by ruffneck on Nov 24, 2009 1:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

What I would do

If I was gameplanning for the Nevada rushing attack is I would put 8 guys in the box, have one guy spy on Kaepernick (Iloka like last year) and have the corners play man coverage and make them beat you throwing the ball. I think our secondary is too good and Kaepernick is too bad for them to have any success throwing. We shall see what Wilcox does.

Another thing is…who’s to say that BSU couldn’t have had 500 yards rushing against Utah ST? Doug averaged 9.3 and Avery averaged 7.3…but BSU is a more balanced offense with Kellen pulling the trigger. I think Nevada’s rushing stats are so blown up because they rely so heavily on the run, which I think will get them in to trouble against good defenses like Boise State’s.

by the collinator on Nov 24, 2009 8:50 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I was going to point out ...

… that Nevada only has 141 yards passing combined in its last two games, but that’s because there’s no reason to throw the ball. Boise State will give them a reason to throw it. Don’t you think?

"Only film the ones that are standing, Kenneth." - Tony Perkis

by Kevan Lee on Nov 24, 2009 10:53 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

What makes me nervous...

is Nevada’s depth at running back. There is literally no drop off in potential/production between Luke Lippincott & Vai Taua. If the Nevada running game gets on a roll, the Broncos could have a tough time stopping them. A tired defense is no match for fresh running backs. We need suffocating defense (and/or a couple turnovers) from the beginning to take Nevada’s “momentum” they’ve carried through the WAC season. If Nevada’s offense stalls on a couple drives, they turn the ball over, or they’re forced to punt I could see the wheels coming off the Wolf Pack wagon… (This would be similar to the Oregon game. I think a lot of our success on defense was a result of the first couple series. We never let the Oregon offense get started which caused problems for them throughout the game.)

by Drofdarb23 on Nov 24, 2009 10:04 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Pick 6's

I can’t recall exactly what happened, but if I do recall correctly, those Pick 6’s last year were tipped by the defensive linemen. As much as Boise throws to the edges, those passing lanes need to be open to not create the same result last year. I’d be interested to know if Moch and/or Basped were the ones tipping the ball for INT’s in last years game. I do know one was to the left and one was to the right of the field.

"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale

by Loque on Nov 24, 2009 10:14 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

What teams did Nevada play?

What teams did they roll up all those yards and points on? I know, it is a rhetorical question, but I am making a point.

The point? They haven’t played Boise State.

We will spy Kapi and stack the box and force them to pass. We have plenty of talent on the D-line and backers to do this where other WAC teams didn’t. Then the Broncos will pick off Kapi at their leisure. There will be a lot of Nevada turnovers in this game. I am predicting 5. Thinking about the Nevada passing game makes me and Kyle Wilson giddy inside.

The Utah State game showed the importance of not over pursuing plays and sticking to your assignments better, like what they did with the other 3 headed monster, Oregon. I see something similiar happening, but not quite as good with Nevada as it was with Oregon.

If Nevada can’t get a pass rush up the middle, it will be a long day for their secondary. I think we will do just fine against their defensive ends. They will block them deep past Kellen while he steps up in the pocket to conduct surgery on the Wolfpack DBs.

I think we will have a big game on the ground as well. It will happen later in the game after they have been repeatly torched by the pass.

We will come out passing for sure. Always stress the weakest links until they break. There will be a lot of pressure on their passing defense.

It won’t be pretty…for Nevada.

Signature Pending

by Belexes on Nov 24, 2009 11:09 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

The Edge (not U2's guitarist)

is my first concern. I’m no expert, but it Containing Kaepernick(sounds like one of those insufferable plays Boise Contemp Theatre occassionally does) would intuitively seem the right approach. Everything forced inside, allowing the redoubtable firm of Johnson, Venable & Iloka(sounds like a Hawaiin law firm) to deliver their “packages”. Last week’s game seemed to show some intial difficulty. I think with the Broncosit is significant to note the role that training appears to play. Opposing teams execution diminishes as they simply wear down. that combined with our potent offense appears to take them out of their plan. If we seriously believe we have a BCS worrthy team(I do) we should reamin wary but very optimistic a la Blexes points.

tvmunson

by tmunson on Nov 24, 2009 11:14 AM PST reply actions   2 recs

Yeah, I am optimistic

But I have history on my side and history often repeats itself.

How many times as a game been hyped as tough when we played these kind of teams like Oregon, Fresno (many times), Nevada (many times), Utah. What were the results?

2007, was a fluke. We didn’t game plan for someone like Kapi.

Idaho was supposed to be something this year. Were they? Not to Boise State.

As long as we respect them and play then hard, the result will be like a Utah State or Idaho game, but only if we pull starters in the 4th like we have been doing. This time, we put the pedal to the metal all game.

Signature Pending

by Belexes on Nov 24, 2009 11:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

absolutely correct about '07

In fact wasnt that hsi first start? We just werent readly kinda like when Ore put that 4th string pocket passer in against us in ‘08. Serendipitous too that we get simiar teams back to back, with the less potent one first. Very intelligent post sBelexes on a site that is noteworthy for its abundance of same. I hav ebeen so toally wrong on nearly eveyr aspect of my prognositcations that I, like James Caan in “The Godfather” scene with Solozzo, have stuck to the obvious("If the other family’s are in we need to look at it")

tvmunson

by tmunson on Nov 24, 2009 11:40 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Utah State

Was competitive until the adrenalin and emotion wore off, they couldn’t keep it up the whole game, like most teams. You can’t substitue emotion and energy for execution and focus on the individual aspects of what a team does on the field. It is only a supplement for those things, not a replacement.

You saw what happened to Utah State once all that emotion and stuff wore off, they had nothing left to compete with. They almost got 2 quarters out of it. BSU just kept doing what they do, execute and do what they do. They played within themselves. Not too many teams out there are going to make us try to play that way in a desperate attempt to stay in the game.

Utah State was was like a cornered rabbit against a fox. It fought, kicked, scratched and bit furiously in a brief attempt to delay the inevitable outcome.

Signature Pending

by Belexes on Nov 24, 2009 11:38 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Agree

 I agree with everything you say. My fear, is that desperate brand of football where they have nothing to loose. More than one team this year gave us a scare by going for broke. I feel one weakness our defensive secondary has is deep coverage. We’ve has some costly interference calls this year also. I can’t remember which team but one of them concentrated on Brandon hard .

by ruffneck on Nov 24, 2009 12:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We will kill them.

Finally our team is asked to focus, we need this prior to a BCS game.

We will open going for the long game and then settle into a cat and mouse game.

BSU by 21.

by BSU Alumni stranded in Portland on Nov 24, 2009 11:28 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I dont know where to go with this

but I hope Burroughs has a better game. The holding call was bad but unnecessary IMO-titus had it all the way. I think he dropped a pass.

tvmunson

by tmunson on Nov 24, 2009 2:12 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Potter and Burroughs

Does anybody have any idea what the coaching staff is trying to do with these guys? It seems to me that they’re trying to produce the next “Vinny,” only it hasn’t been working. If Austin Pettis or Titus Young were to be injured, who is confident in Potter or Burroughs ability to step in and make plays (they’re listed as the back-ups on the depth chart)?

Potter: 3 catches, 8 yards, 0 TD.
Burroughs: 7 catches, 49 yards, 1 TD and 3 rushes, -5 yards.

No offense to these guys, but I’d be BAD WORDSing my pants if anything happened to TY or AP!!

by Drofdarb23 on Nov 24, 2009 3:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Game time experience

I mean no direspect either. I believe the coaches are just getting them some OJT. If it comes down to a injury, (God forbid) we have other weapons in our arsenal. These young guys are our future. They need to get in the game.

by ruffneck on Nov 24, 2009 4:13 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Movement and D-Line Strength

If I was Ault, I would take a page out of Utah State’s defensive playbook and come at the Broncos with the “funky” defense – one that seemed to throw Moore off his game.

"They came with some funky stuff that we hadn’t seen on film," Moore said.

I realized it didn’t ultimately pan out because the ground game worked so well, but the Wolfpack have a better run defense, and if they can get Moore misfiring, then all the better.

Before last Friday’s game at Utah State, I was listening to the KBOI pre-game show with Jeff Caves and Paul J. I believe it was Paul J. who mentioned that when Anderson was hired as head coach at Utah State one of his first orders of business was to get the entire team stronger. He was shocked at how weak the Aggies were across the board. This August 2009 article from the SL Tribune states:

Off the field, the program has made significant strides. Six players, before Andersen took the job, could lift 300 pounds in the weightroom, a miniscule number for a division I program. Now, 32 players can make that weight. “Everyone’s gotten stronger and everyone’s gotten a lot bigger,” Borel said. “If you look at before and after pictures from January until now, everyone’s bigger. We just have to keep that strength up throughout the season and continue to work hard.”

While the Aggies still need to improve on their D-Line pass rush, they were able to get a few shots on Moore. I’m sure they would attribute some of their succes to improved work in the weight room. Clearly Nevada does not have this problem with Basped and Moch. Both are beasts, incredibly strong, and Basped has amazing speed for a line player.

While watching the Nevada-ND game early this season, it seemed like the Pack were getting burned on runs to the corner as the DE would consistently get sucked in. I’m sure we’ll see Avery try and take advantage of the agressive play by Moch and Basped.

If this is a year that Nevada doesn’t get down on itself and believes, they have the skills to make this a very competitive game. Yet in their previous statement games, they have laid eggs against ND, Mizzou, and Colo St. Which team will show up? Who knows, but I hope this is a game that the Broncos go for the early knockout punch.

by SactoBronco on Nov 24, 2009 8:32 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

No

Y’all will kill these guys as well.

by MeanBobMean on Nov 25, 2009 1:48 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

This is...

impressive. I don’t stray out west too often to get analysis, but damn guys, you’ve outdone yourselves. This is one of the best kept, most active blogs I have seen on SBNation. I’ll have to come back here more often for WAC analysis.

by The Mack Attack on Nov 25, 2009 10:51 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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