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MWC vs. WAC (Or, a day in a season of suckiness)

 

Let's analyze the supposed "strength" of the Mountain West, shall we?  Blood is going to shoot out of my eyes if I hear one more pundit accept without analysis that the Mountain West conference schedule is so much "tougher" than the WAC conference schedule. 

There are some very bad teams in both, but this year, in a round robin of WAC top three against MWC top three, I think the WAC would hold their own.  Nevada and Fresno against Utah?  I say we win at least one of the 2.  Nevada and Fresno against BYU?  I think BYU has mucho trouble with team speed against Fresno.  I give the WAC at least one win there, with a chance to win both.  BSU and TCU is a tough one.  At home BSU wins with at least 60% probablility, there it is probably only about a 40% chance of a win.  BSU most likely beats both BYU and Utah this year, regardless of home or away.  BYU can’t handle the "truth" or the team speed, and Utah’s offense can’t score for four plays if the other team leaves the field.  TCU most likely beats both Fresno and Nevada this year, unless they turn it over 3 or 4 times.  At the top, it is at least a ……draw.  A loss to any of the top 3 in either conference is unlikely vs. the bottom 6 in the other conference.  It could happen, but it is extremely unlikely.  Maybe not Duck fan admitting BSU is a better team unlikely, but unlikely.

 

Middle of the conference-  Idaho, Utah State and La Tech vs. Wyoming, Air Force and Colorado State or San Diego State.  Hmmm.  Idaho beat CSU and San Diego State already.  Idaho is 6-2.  Wyoming is 4-3.  Air Force is 4-4.  I say it comes out at least even, with possibly a slight advantage to the WAC.  La Tech and Idaho have better home field advantages than CSU or Air Force.  La Tech might go 3-0 if all were down there.  My best guess, Idaho is 2-1, La Tech goes 2-1, Utah State goes 1-2.  Slight advantage- WAC.  The middle tier teams win most of the games against the other conference’s bottom feeders, with no appreciable difference.  A road loss here and there, but probably each conference’s middle tier wins against the other conference’s bottom feeders at about a 4-1 ratio. 

 

Bottom Feeders-  Strange not to have Idaho here, no?  WAC- NM State, San Jose State and Hawaii.  Ok, no denying they all suck.  As Steven A. Smith would say:  Howevuhhhh-  NM State beat UNM.  UNM might be the worst team in the country this year.  San Diego State got beat by Idaho (so did CSU, one of them have to go to the bottom feeder category).  UNLV got absolutely rolled by Nevada for Nevada’s 1st win of the season.  In spite of the relative ease of the win last week by BSU, Hawaii is still a tough place to do well.  My best guess?  NM State goes 2-1.  Already 1 win in the bag against UNM.  Hawaii goes 2-1 if 2 of the 3 are on the island, and 1-2 if they have to travel.  Even giving a 1-2 record to SJSU, advantage…. Drum roll please……  WAC.

 

 

There are lies, damn lies and statistics, but it is ludicrous for the National Media to presume that the Mountain West is so much tougher than the WAC.  Not this year.

 

There is no doubt that both conferences suck, but the MWC suckiness might exceed the WAC suckiness this year.  It is sort of like someone else picking on your little brother, you know.  It's right and proper for Bronco Nation to deride the Pack and the Vandulls, and even give a little something to the Ags(X2) and the Spartans at least on game week...  But the rest of you, Leave us alone!!!!!  Go back to making fun of the Big 12 North and the ACC except Georgia Tech.

 



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