MWC vs. WAC (Or, a day in a season of suckiness)
by rjohnson_jl on Oct 30, 2009 3:40 PM PDT
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Let's analyze the supposed "strength" of the Mountain West, shall we? Blood is going to shoot out of my eyes if I hear one more pundit accept without analysis that the Mountain West conference schedule is so much "tougher" than the WAC conference schedule.
There are some very bad teams in both, but this year, in a round robin of WAC top three against MWC top three, I think the WAC would hold their own. Nevada and Fresno against Utah? I say we win at least one of the 2. Nevada and Fresno against BYU? I think BYU has mucho trouble with team speed against Fresno. I give the WAC at least one win there, with a chance to win both. BSU and TCU is a tough one. At home BSU wins with at least 60% probablility, there it is probably only about a 40% chance of a win. BSU most likely beats both BYU and Utah this year, regardless of home or away. BYU can’t handle the "truth" or the team speed, and Utah’s offense can’t score for four plays if the other team leaves the field. TCU most likely beats both Fresno and Nevada this year, unless they turn it over 3 or 4 times. At the top, it is at least a ……draw. A loss to any of the top 3 in either conference is unlikely vs. the bottom 6 in the other conference. It could happen, but it is extremely unlikely. Maybe not Duck fan admitting BSU is a better team unlikely, but unlikely.
Middle of the conference- Idaho, Utah State and La Tech vs. Wyoming, Air Force and Colorado State or San Diego State. Hmmm. Idaho beat CSU and San Diego State already. Idaho is 6-2. Wyoming is 4-3. Air Force is 4-4. I say it comes out at least even, with possibly a slight advantage to the WAC. La Tech and Idaho have better home field advantages than CSU or Air Force. La Tech might go 3-0 if all were down there. My best guess, Idaho is 2-1, La Tech goes 2-1, Utah State goes 1-2. Slight advantage- WAC. The middle tier teams win most of the games against the other conference’s bottom feeders, with no appreciable difference. A road loss here and there, but probably each conference’s middle tier wins against the other conference’s bottom feeders at about a 4-1 ratio.
Bottom Feeders- Strange not to have Idaho here, no? WAC- NM State, San Jose State and Hawaii. Ok, no denying they all suck. As Steven A. Smith would say: Howevuhhhh- NM State beat UNM. UNM might be the worst team in the country this year. San Diego State got beat by Idaho (so did CSU, one of them have to go to the bottom feeder category). UNLV got absolutely rolled by Nevada for Nevada’s 1st win of the season. In spite of the relative ease of the win last week by BSU, Hawaii is still a tough place to do well. My best guess? NM State goes 2-1. Already 1 win in the bag against UNM. Hawaii goes 2-1 if 2 of the 3 are on the island, and 1-2 if they have to travel. Even giving a 1-2 record to SJSU, advantage…. Drum roll please…… WAC.
There are lies, damn lies and statistics, but it is ludicrous for the National Media to presume that the Mountain West is so much tougher than the WAC. Not this year.
There is no doubt that both conferences suck, but the MWC suckiness might exceed the WAC suckiness this year. It is sort of like someone else picking on your little brother, you know. It's right and proper for Bronco Nation to deride the Pack and the Vandulls, and even give a little something to the Ags(X2) and the Spartans at least on game week... But the rest of you, Leave us alone!!!!! Go back to making fun of the Big 12 North and the ACC except Georgia Tech.
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I agree. But....
Perception is everything. And the MWC has it.
by cexeko on Oct 31, 2009 9:32 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Perception is reality. Hate to say it...
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
the mwc would welcome boise state with open arms
by wolfmanshowlforever on Oct 31, 2009 4:55 PM PDT reply actions
lie
Why would they welcome us if they’ve never invited us?
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
this is what i heard craig thompson the mwc commish is trying to get an aq bcs bid if we add
boise state. he wants a guarantee. a guarantee that probably is not coming. i would say 80% -90% of mwc fans would welcome bsu.i guess the final decision rests with the ncaa then the commissioner of mwc.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Oct 31, 2009 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions
I think the NCAA will give the MWC an AQ bid if...
BSU is add. The Big East needs to get dropped though. Of course, that won’t happen. The question is, does the MWC need to have Boise first or will the NCAA give the MWC an AQ bid first. If it’s the latter, Boise might get shafted and never get the invite. This year should prove that even if a MWC team (probably Utah or BYU) had one loss, they could still make a BCS bowl. So adding Boise won’t hurt anybody. Besides, TCU did show a MWC team can beat Boise. And the way Boise and TCU are playing, the MWC could have 2 BCS bowls. That’s $24,000,000 for the conference. Add one team, double your bowl intake? Has anyone pitched Boise to Thompson that way?
I love the colors Orange and Blue. Go Broncos!!! Go Titans!!!
Please don't take this the wrong way, MWC......
Mr. MWC commissioner man:
Please, please, please, please, please still invite BSU to the MWC. Don’t let anything I say have any sort of impact on BSU’s worthiness to get it. Once BSU is in, the WAC will all be garbage feeding bottom dwellers….. Really. Our loyalty will shift immediately.
your being sarcastic
mwc has 14 bcs wins in past two years. the wac has 5 or 6. utah has 18 bcs wins and two bcs bowl wins. tcu has 15 bcs wins. byu has 14 or 15. navy is fourth. boise state i think has 7 or 8 bcs wins and 1 bcs bowl win. we are trying to be nice and you beg. case closed. you need us more than we need you. it will be funny after tcu beats a number 12-14 (utah team) in the bcs standings that they will pass bsu for good. i think you have been listening to old man lou holtz too much.i would like for both teams to go but if there is only one that can go, tcu is the one. peace be with you.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Nov 1, 2009 7:03 AM PDT reply actions
Which has little bearing on this season.
Part of the reason people may think that the MWC is stronger this season is because it has been stronger, historically. But this may be a weaker year for the MWC, particularly among the bottom of the conference, and some of the WAC’s cellar dwellers (Idaho!) have been surprising.
actually the mwc 5 bcs wins is more than the wac's 3 this season
i want both teams to go. all that has to happen is notre dame loses to pitt or stanford. iowa runs the table and gives osu it’s third loss. osu beats penn state this weekend. the acc, big 12 and big east will only get one bid. the pac ten either has to have oregon lose or usc lose one. i guse iowa beating osu will be the biggest test but the way iowa keeps getting breaks and holding on to winning games late is kinda uncanny. it just might be their dream season. i want both tcu and boise state to go. i’m for the mid level conferences every time. peace.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Nov 3, 2009 9:41 AM PST up reply actions
good points
I think Nevada is playing much better.I think they got intimidated at ND. Very good analysis; like all good analysis it cuts through fuzzy thinking, impressions etc. and allow for reformulation of concepts.
tvmunson
Unfortunately ... I would have to agree.
.
It should be noted that the WAC has been more consistent over the past 4 years while the MWC has been better the last two. The only reason the MWC is higher this year is because they have more teams in the top 25.
~%* New Mexico. Stinking up the league.
That is supposed to be SDSU’s job!
And Idaho? Where did that come from. #$%!%%
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
i would rather have three teams in the top 25 than one.
the mwc will get 5 teams bowl eligile while the wac will get four. i think both conferences have nine members. gameday is supposed to be at the airforce / army game too. that is twice that espn game day will be at a mwc school.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Nov 4, 2009 3:02 AM PST up reply actions
Give Gameday a freakin' cookie...
Last I checked, ESPN is one of many national media outlets giving the MWC a pass. Maybe ESPN is trying to woo the MWC to sign a contract to televise some MWC games. They know they missed out on TCU vs. BYU. This week is more of a PR stunt (We at ESPN support our troops, crap).
I love the colors Orange and Blue. Go Broncos!!! Go Titans!!!
you will always have lou holtz in your corner, except when bsu played east carolina.
i wonder why east carolina? oh yes skip holtz.. there is room for both of us. if kirk herbstreit says it. it’s as good as a done deal. peace.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Nov 4, 2009 9:59 AM PST up reply actions
I would love to see both teams in the BCS...
But I (and I am sure most of Bronco Nation) would rather be the highest non AQ just in case both don’t get bids.
I love the colors Orange and Blue. Go Broncos!!! Go Titans!!!
i understand your concern. i'm the same way
cincy is going to lose to either wvu or pitt. florida/alabama someone loses. alabama might lose to lsu. iowa i’m not sure about. this might be the season everything goes right for them. they would give osu it’s third loss. no bcs bowl for them. i’ve looked at the rest of usc and oregon’s schedule and i see one of them definitely losing somewhere. a third loss would keep usc out. texas will probably win out. notre dame will either lose to pitt or stanford at home. stanford is tough at home with toby g. and andrew luck. i really do hope both teams get in. let herbstreit and the rest of espn keep bringing it up week after week and maybe they can swing some votes. i see sporadic articles already appearing and every team which is still undefeated has a media team trying to persuade whoever they need to persuade (voters). good luck bsu and good luck to tcu.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Nov 4, 2009 7:06 PM PST up reply actions
wac holding us down...
think it about, guys. in ‘04 when BSU was undefeated in the reg. season, who kept us out of the BCS? utah. last year same thing. If TCU and the Broncos win out this year, that’ll be the 3rd time in six years the MWC has outranked Boise STate. We need in on that. Period.
by broncochick64 on Nov 5, 2009 8:50 AM PST up reply actions
i know wac fans don't want to hear this but if penn state beat osu this week
espn gameday is supposedly going to fort worth for the tcu/utah game. if ohio state wins they goto iowa/ohio state game. boise state makes an even ten teams in the mwc. we all get a shot at a ncg and the top four teams can fight it out for the bcs bowl or bowls. peace.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Nov 5, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions
Promoting a SECOND game not on their network?
I’m sure they’d love to hit Ft. Worth if they could televise it, but having two GameDays where they don’t show the game seems ridiculous. Not saying heading to Idaho is a great plan either, but let’s be serious here.
by graybandit on Nov 5, 2009 11:17 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
There is a BCS re-evaluation in either 2012, IIRC.
That’s the target. If the MWC is going to add BSU (which I believe they want to do), they will extend the offer one year prior to the re-eval. The reason for that is that there is a one-year wait period before a team can actually shift to a new conference (e.g. offer in summer 2010, then join in summer 2011). But once joined, all of the relevant accomplishments of that team count toward the new conference in the re-eval.
So:
BSU gets an offer after the 2010 season.
BSU is officially a MWC member after the 2011 season.
The re-eval counts Boise’s records, including top-25 finishes, conference championships, etc. into their little formula for determining which conferences are BCS automatic qualifiers. However, all these accomplishments from Boise will come without having played any MWC teams. So Boise’s wins do not generate MWC losses. This is the key to the whole thing.
If Boise and the MWC time it right, all of Boise’s points will be added to the MWC, but Boise will have earned them off the back of the WAC. That represents the best shot for both the MWC and Boise to gain that BCS auto-qualifier status. This is likely why you haven’t heard much from either side on the issue. I think that BSU and the MWC already have a deal in place to make the transition at the right time.
I may blog for Tennessee, but as a Wyoming alum, I would heartily endorse this maneuver. Watching Boise, Utah, BYU, and TCU go head-to-head with the occasional hot Air Force and CSU team would be sweet. If the MWC finds a way to jettison New Mexico at the same time, it’d be perfect.
Actually
Boise State would need an invite this summer. Then they would play one more season with the WAC after notifying them and then play their 2011 season in the MWC. Then the MWC could use all of Boise’s stats in their conference strength evaluation during the next BCS evaluation.
If the MWC is going to invite Boise State, they will do it this summer.
Couldn’t have been better state. Everything seems spot on, except that I’m not sure either the BSU president or the AD would go for jumping over without a TV deal. Oh, and The Mountain doesn’t count.
i'm sure espn could help the mwc with boise land some kind of tv deal
espn runs the whole ball of wax starting 2011. they had espn gameday three times this season at mwc schools. they see a potentially a great conference in the making. i think they would want on that.
yes i am obsessive, obnoxious, in your face and all about covering the spread. those are my good qualities.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Nov 22, 2009 10:23 AM PST up reply actions
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Georgia
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Sat 09/03 | W 35 - 21 |
| @ Toledo | Fri 09/16 | W 40 - 15 |
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TCU
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