The Economics of Playing UC Davis
by MKingery on Oct 26, 2009 4:52 PM PDT
27 comments
There has been a lot of talk about Boise State's schedule. Boise State fans point to the Oregon game while detractors point to the number of dogs on the schedule. This got me to thinking. Would we have been better off just leaving UC Davis off the schedule? The 13th game is optional for teams traveling to Hawaii, allowing them to schedule an extra home game to gain revenue and mitigate the expense of a trip to the Islands.
The win over Oregon was a big win and propelled the Broncos to new heights in both human and computer polls. As the season progresses, that game has less and less weight as the schedule becomes diluted with the likes of Hawaii and San Jose State.
How do the computer polls adjust their formulas in order to compare some teams that play twelve games to others that play thirteen? My guess is that they average out their ranking formula over the number of games played. The Broncos' denominator becomes 13 where it is 12 for most other teams. If UC Davis were left off the schedule, the Oregon game would carry one-twelfth (1/12) the weight rather than one-thirteenth (1/13). That could be enough of an impact to move the Broncos up several slots in the computer polls.
One of the BCS polls, The Colley Matrix, allows visitors to play god by entering hypothetical situations into the web site to see how the ranking would change. Removing the UC Davis game, moved Boise State up four spots from #11 to #7 in the Colley Matrix. Similar movement in other computer polls could be enough to vault the Broncos back in front of TCU in the overall BCS standings.
Money talks, so what is it saying? With a crowd of 32,500 at an average of $40 a ticket, the Broncos brought in $1.3 Million in gate revenue for the UC Davis game, Add in another $500k for concession, parking, etc and the game probably come in a little under $2 Million. The difference in the Broncos' take home from a BCS payout alone would be over $5 Million. Tack on the added publicity that comes with a BCS game and let's hope we never schedule another FCS opponent again.
The graph represents the historical volume of search hits for Boise State Football on Google. Not even "the punch heard 'round the world" come close to the attention the Broncos received from their Fiesta Bowl visit.
via www.google.com
This content was not created by OBNUG and therefore may not meet our standards. On the contrary, it probably exceeds them.
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Nice article
Puts a little facts into the pluses and minuses of playing FCS teams.
I believe all Viking fans must be masochistic!!
by BSUvikFAN on Oct 26, 2009 6:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
tears, you have me in tears!
Just for that, you get 2 rec’s!
Catch me on the BroncoNation Podcast!
by OBNUG Intern on Oct 26, 2009 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No more tears, not even happy ones.
Everyone is so depressed on this board lately, mainly Kevan. And rightfully so, but I see a Vandal (and Spartan) beatdown in the near future. So, Buckup campers!
Obviously you're not a golfer...
by ty_ol on Oct 26, 2009 7:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I should point out
Those tears were from laughing so hard!
Catch me on the BroncoNation Podcast!
by OBNUG Intern on Oct 26, 2009 7:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Roger that.
More to come.
Obviously you're not a golfer...
by ty_ol on Oct 26, 2009 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That song all of the sudden makes sense to me now.
Mo’ Money
Mo’ Problems!
I totally get it now!
Catch me on the BroncoNation Podcast!
by OBNUG Intern on Oct 28, 2009 8:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That site is AWESOME!! Rec'd!
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
by Mikrino on Oct 29, 2009 7:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You had me at statistics.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
by Loque on Oct 26, 2009 8:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Rec'd the post as well.
More proof that playing FCS teams is a waste of time.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
by Mikrino on Oct 27, 2009 8:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Great post
Small nitpick because I’m anal: I think you mean denominator instead of numerator.
Seriously though, posting this to my twitter because it shows how worthless that game was.
by appleshampoo on Oct 27, 2009 10:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You are correct..
Don’t know how I missed that. Fixed. Thanks.
"...east and west is the problem, north and south the solution."
by MKingery on Oct 28, 2009 7:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
you have the most interesting name
tvmunson
by tmunson on Oct 28, 2009 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
It’s a blink-182 song, and I do in fact enjoy Suave apple shampoo
by appleshampoo on Oct 28, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a coconut man.
In fact, the first time I met my future wife was when I saw her and asked her to smell my hair.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
by Loque on Oct 28, 2009 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
not to mention
BSU has to pay the salaries of everyone who worked the game, and I’m fairly sure they had to pay some money to UC-Davis
The flip side, of course, is that in scheduling the game, they couldn’t count on the fact that dropping them from the schedule would guarantee them the 5 million BCS net. So to really analyze, from a financial perspective, whether it is a good idea, you’d have to do
probability that adding the game keeps them out of the BCS*net BCS payout-(1-probability that adding the game keeps them out of the BC)*net UC Davis homegame earnings. If that is greater than zero, drop the game, if not, keep it. And when you are scheduling the games, the probability will be generally pretty low, so it will actually make financial sense: it is just that in this case it turns out that it didn’t (or likely won’t).
by killtacular on Oct 28, 2009 12:14 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
With 120 teams in the FBS, somebody has to have an open date.
Bleymaier picked UC Davis for the ties to Coach Pete. You’d think he could have easily found a Sun Belt doormat to pick on.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
by Mikrino on Oct 28, 2009 5:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
But the difference in SOS would be pretty small, and I actually think the good 1-AA teams often have a higher ranking than the crappiest 1-A teams in the computer rankings, which are the only ones who are going to really distinguish a crappy Sun Belt team from a 1-AA team in the first place.
Further, 1-AA teams won’t demand a home-and-home, while the crappy Sun Belt teams will unless we’re willing to give them SEC money, which we won’t.
by killtacular on Oct 28, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well.
They did make a nice profit on Slickers. They sold out at the end of the first quarter (I know because I couldn’t get one). $1.50 a pop for a piece of plastic.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
by Loque on Oct 28, 2009 7:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
a money making machine right there!
by killtacular on Oct 28, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes it is a risk.
It is more of a wager. Take the sure $2M or risk it for a chance at $8M plus.
Bleymaier should take the $2M every time. The issue is, you can get the same $2M by scheduling an FBS team as well. It doesn’t always work out. As it stands now, Miami OH is ranked lower than UC Davis in many of the polls that rank FCS teams as well. A lot of scheduling is about luck, but if Bleymaier’s philosophy remains the same, the Broncos’ will face a disadvantage every other year when they schedule a 13th game.
"...east and west is the problem, north and south the solution."
by MKingery on Oct 28, 2009 7:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
All good points, although as I mentioned to Mikrino, most of the FBS teams will demand a home-and-home unless we pay them SEC money, which we won’t, while 1-AA teams won’t. So your 2M from the 1-AA turns into 1M when averaged over those two years.
by killtacular on Oct 28, 2009 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
play a home and homr then.
Just quit scheduling FCS opponents.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
by Mikrino on Oct 28, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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