Opponent preview: Can Boise State's red zone offense get healthy versus Hawaii?
by Kevan Lee on Oct 20, 2009 2:57 PM PDT
in Boise State football
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PrintBoise State has been winning handily in the boxscore, but not so much on the scoreboard as of late. Red zone offense, I'm looking at you. Will all that change when the Broncos visit Hawaii on Saturday (9:00pm MT, KTVB)?
After the jump, bone up on the Warriors and see why this week might be Boise State's best chance to punch it in with fair regularity inside the 20. Feel free to leave your own keys to the game in the comments.
 6-0, (1-0)
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No. 4 Boise State at Hawaii
Kickoff: Saturday, 9:00pm MT, TV: KTVB, Radio: 580 KIDO Weather forecast: Sunny, high of 86 Spread: Boise State by 25 |
 2-4, (0-3)
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What Hawaii did last week
The Warriors went to Moscow in hopes of turning around their season and ending the Wizard of Oz-like shroud of competency around the Idaho program. But in the words of Lee Corso, "Not so fast, my friend."
Hawaii allowed Idaho RB Demaundray Woolridge to pile up four TDs, and despite a tolerable passing performance from new starter Bryant Moniz, Hawaii fell to 2-4, meaning more face time for that Washington State win once the season review DVD hits store shelves.
What Hawaii has done so far this season
The WSU game in Seattle was probably the Hawaii highlight. You never want to peak too early, but sometimes it is better to peak too early than to not peak at all. At this point, that looks like the case for the Warriors. Following injuries to top passer Greg Alexander, top defender Brashton Satele, and almost-top WR Rodney Bradley, Hawaii is looking at a lost season and the very real possibility of missing out on their bowl game birthright. Hawaii has to go 5-2 over its remaining games, which would involve upsets over two of the following: Nevada, Boise State, Navy, and Wisconsin. In the words of Greg McMackin, "Please don't print that."
Hawaii on offense
- WR Greg Salas
- WR Kealoha Pilares
- WR Jovonte Taylor
- WR Joe Avery
- OT Austin Hansen
- OG Raphael Ieru
- C John Estes
- OG Ray Hisatake
- OT Aaron Kia
- QB Bryant Moniz
- RB Leon Wright-Jackson
The Hawaii offense is not without serviceable parts. Estes is one of the best linemen in the WAC. Salas leads the league in receiving yards (by a lot). Up until the Greg Alexander injury, offense was not Hawaii's problem, and it wasn't all that culpable last week against Idaho either.
Not much has changed in Hawaii over the years, other than a sharp decrease in the newborn boys being named Colt and June. They'll still pass until it is no longer feasible to do so. And then they'll pass some more. As they say in Hawaii, "Mele kalikimaka," which I believe means "He's open, throw him the ball. Oh, not you, Inoke Funaki."
Hawaii on defense
- DE Elliott Purcell
- DT Rocky Savaiigaea
- DT Tuika Tufaga
- DE John Fonoti
- LB R.J. Kiesel-Kauhane
- LB Mana Lolotai
- LB Blaze Soares
- CB Tank Hopkins
- CB Jeramy Bryant
- S Richard Torres
- S Spencer Smith
The Hawaii defense returned exactly two players from last year's unit, and then exactly one of those returning players got injured. Attrition, thy name is Greg McMackin cosmic gayness justice.
Now the Hawaii defense is getting by on a wing and a prayer. Prayers were answered against Wazzu when the Cougars coughed up the ball seven times; the bounce hasn't been so fortunate for Hawaii since then as they have just one TO in the past three games (hmmm, sound familiar?). Third downs are starting to be a problem, too, as the Warriors are allowing teams to convert better than half the time.
Hawaii on special teams
- P Alex Dunnachie
- K Scott Enos
- PR Greg Salas
- KR Kealoha Pilares
- KR Jovonte Taylor
Hawaii's KRs and PR are dangerous threats. A good Kyle Brotzman rugby punt and bloop kickoff ought to fix that.
Hawaii's red zone defense
During Hawaii's current four-game slide, the TDs that the Warriors have given up have mostly been right near the goalline. Check it out:
- Five of Fresno's six TDs came inside the red zone.
- Three of Idaho's five TDs came inside the Hawaii 10-yard-line.
- All three of LaTech's TDs came on runs inside the Hawaii 10.
- Four of UNLV's five TDs came inside the red zone.
Part of the problem is that Hawaii struggles in run defense and on third downs. The Warriors are in the bottom half of the WAC in run D, and their 52 percent 3rd down conversion rate on defense is just plain not good. Allow a team to move the ball on the ground inside your own 20, and give them as many opportunities as possible to punch it in, and you're bound to struggle in red zone defense.
Boise State's red zone offense
I know I don't have to tell you how blah the Broncos have been inside the opponent's 20. So I'll let the numbers do the talking. Boise State has made six trips inside the red zone for no points, and 13 trips for no touchdowns. But it doesn't stop there...
Get BIFFF in here!
A fun BIFFF stat courtesy of my blogging peer at Yahoo!, Dr. Saturday, is Wasted Yards, which is pretty much exactly what it sounds like - yards gained that did not result in points. Put the kids to bed if you don't want them to see this. Boise State has wasted 710 yards this season. I cringe to think what that number looks like including yards on short FG attempts.
What has been the main cause of red zone woes? Part of it seems to be an inability to convert third downs, especially on the ground and surprisingly through the air.
On third down, Doug Martin and Jeremy Avery are a combined 5-for-14, averaging less than 2 yards per carry. Ironically, D.J. Harper was 2-for-3 on third down, with both of his conversions resulting in TDs. Cue a Mark Johnson malapropism!
In the midst of Kellen Moore's Year To Remember, Moore's kryptonite of relativism is third down passing. He is otherworldy on first and second down, hitting on 77 and 74 percent of his throws respectively. But on third down? A Colin Kaepernick-like 56 percent. On 50 third down passing attempts, he has converted first downs only 20 times.
Can the Broncos win without being efficient in the red zone?
You bet they can. They've done it for six straight weeks this season, so winning inefficiently is fast becoming an M.O. Here are just a few ways that the Broncos can steal one from the Warriors without short, 20-yards-or-less TDs.
- Big plays. Like the one that almost happened with Titus Young last week. I'm still mid-fist-pump, in case that matters to anyone.
- Dominant defense. I don't think that winning 3-0 is what any Bronco fan wants, but at least it would still be a win.
- Special teams. Seems like games against the Warriors always have some sort of special teams bend. Blocked field goal for a TD? A Kyle Wilson punt return TD? Titus Young or Doug Martin on the kickoff return? You never know.
- Coaching. Coach Pete and his staff have finagled wins out of this group all season long despite the lack of success in the red zone. Here's a question for you: Just how many TDs do the Broncos need to get in the red zone in order to win on Saturday? One? Two? Three? More than three?
- Diet Coke shortage. Greg McMackin would be coaching with a heavy heart.
What? You thought I could get through a whole Hawaii preview without using that picture?
Other factors
Red zone offense will hardly be the only part of Saturday's game that makes a dent in the final outcome. Here are some other factors that could come into play. Naturally, I'm leaving several out. Let me know in the comments which ones you can think of.
- Kellen Moore time in the pocket. Moore has proven this season that when he has time to throw, all the problems of the world go away. He is quarterbacking perfection when he is given time to be so. Hawaii will rue the day it rushes four.
- No big plays on defense. The last time Boise State played a WAC team, Ryan Mathews was given carte blanche on carries that began at the Fresno 40-yard-line. Hawaii is hurting on offense, but it still has playmakers who can turn a missed tackle/assignment or two into a big gainer.
- Turnovers. Boise State has been on the wrong side of the turnover battle in each of their last two games. If they make it three-for-three, will they be lucky enough to escape with another win? I wouldn't bet on it.
- Playing in Hawaii. There's just something about that place that seems to bring out the most average in the Broncos.
Your turn
Red zone troubles will be on full display on Saturday night, and I for one think that the Broncos will be able to get back on the red zone track against Hawaii. The Warrior defense isn't as strong as in years past, and the Broncos will be coming in with an extra half-week of preparation, which should balance out any island woes.
What are you looking forward to about this game? What keys will you be watching? Interested to see how Bryant Moniz does against the Bronco defense? Think Jeremy Avery is due for another 100-yard game? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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Comments
Yes!
I’m first commenting!
Now, i think this is the game where Boise State attempts to play as mistake free football as possible. No more fumbles, no missed field goals, some forced turnovers on defense, and no miscues in the red-zone. Can’t wait! Dang, it’s only Tuesday?
A 9:00pm kickoff is not going to make it any easier
If you could only have one, which would it be: No penalties, no turnovers, or no miscues in the red zone?
"I eat success for breakfast - with skim milk!" - Tony Perkis
Remember.
It’s a 9:00 pm kick-off here, it’s an afternoon game in Hawaii.
Catch me on the BroncoNation Podcast!
by OBNUG Intern on Oct 21, 2009 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Huh?
I though this was a 9am Sunday game here.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
11:00 pm ET, 9:00 pm MT, 5:00 pm Island Time
Catch me on the BroncoNation Podcast!
by OBNUG Intern on Oct 21, 2009 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions
No turnovers.
Hands down, turnovers make the biggest difference in winning or losing a game.
by CaptainBronco on Oct 21, 2009 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions
I think I'd have to agree with you
Even though BSU has gotten by on the wrong side of the TO battle the past couple weeks, you can’t keep doing that all season long and expect to win handily. I think they’ll fix that this week. Bryant Moniz is ripe for strip sacks and INTs.
"I eat success for breakfast - with skim milk!" - Tony Perkis
Hawaii is a disaster.
If we don’t do something big against them, polls or not, I’m not going to be too happy about it.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
the wise guys in vegas seem to think hawaii deserves +24 points
i’ll stay away from this one but if i was made to bet i would say bsu would cover. you beat my by that much. “get smart” the tv show.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Oct 20, 2009 3:07 PM PDT reply actions
24 points
I’m surprised that they needed that many points to get the betting even. But damn year in and year out those guys are good. When was the last tiem we blew Hawaii out in Hawaii? forget teh stadium-in hawaii you fight the locale, climate, the total island ambience. By the way I got banned all afternoon by SB for overblogging. I thought this was a chat room-it aint’.
tvmunson
Almost never.
The Broncos have beaten Hawaii by more than 24 points only two times. Both times in Boise.
2002- 58-31
2004- 69-3
This may be the week to pick Hawaii to cover…?
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Awwwww, Mikrino.. You brought a tear to my eye this time.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
Stats..
I was looking at 3rd down conversion percentages and espn.com says were at 33.8% (88th in the country).. Is this really true? 25/74!?!??
Not quite right...
BIFFF is your new friend.
They are actually 29 of 74 for 39.2%. That would put them at 61st in the FBS.
Amazingly, Idaho is 2nd in the nation with 57.4%, only to be outpaced by BYU at 64.1%
"...east and west is the problem, north and south the solution."
boise fans should really pull for idaho to beat nevada 7-1 might get them to 27th in the poll
by wolfmanshowlforever on Oct 20, 2009 6:29 PM PDT up reply actions
We won't pull for them.
But we know it would be nice for them to go through their slate of Nevada, Fresno, and La Tech before getting to us.
However, I think Fresno should be ranked end of season if they win out as well. They’ve only lost to ranked teams.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
61st is a lot better than 88th, but you’d think the Broncos would be able to convert more often than 39 percent of the time. It just goes to show that there is still room for improvement for the nation’s No. 6-ish team, which is pretty impressive.
"I eat success for breakfast - with skim milk!" - Tony Perkis
It's a sign of how talented the Broncos are.
3rd down conversions and Red Zone success are two major stats that usually indicate how successful a team is. The Broncos do not excel at either and they are still rolling.
Idaho has converted 3rd downs and that has translated into winning close games.
If the Broncos don’t clean up both areas, it will come to haunt them at some point.
"...east and west is the problem, north and south the solution."
The red zone offensive struggles must stop. We know it isn’t due to a lack of ability, planning, preparation, or coaching. In my experiences of playing and coaching something like this is usually more a mental or attitude issue. Teams that are efficient typically have a certain confidence or swagger about themselves in these situations that I have not yet seen from this team to this point in the season.
Scoring in the red zone and finishing off drives is about determination and an attitude of refusing to fail. That attitude can’t exist with just a few players but has to be team wide. Unfortunately, the longer the struggles continue the more likely it is some detrimental attitudes start creeping in.
The have the players, they have the plays, they have more than adequate planning and preparation, now they need to get a little bit of an angry edge and simply refuse to fail.
They don't have the experience
All good points, Mountngrown. You’re right; a big part of red zone is an attitude. Fact is, a lot of these players are young and haven’t developed that attitude yet. Do you buy youth and inexperience as a factor in red zone failure?
"I eat success for breakfast - with skim milk!" - Tony Perkis
ABSOLUTELY!!!
As soon as I hit the “post” button on my original post the thought occurred to me that I should have pointed out that all of the above are indicative of a young and largely inexperienced team in pressure situations. However, at this point nearly halfway through the season there should be some signs of progress in theses younger players. The fact that it this progress showing up is what concerns me.
If you keep playing with fire sooner or later you are going to get burned.
RED ZONE
BSU had better have a good showing in the red zone and run up the score if possible?
The BCS computers like us while the rest of the world does not, May and Herbie (idiots)
I am pumped for the Vandals as well, be good Idaho/BSU fans. Show the world that we support all Idaho sports teams. BE GOOD FANS, not ugly like UO and USC etc….
by BSU Alumni stranded in Portland on Oct 21, 2009 6:43 AM PDT reply actions
UO FANS
The Duck blogs were all buzzing with the Blount melt down and blaming the our kids for the entire episode. It was pathetic.
Now Blount’s Mommy has hired an attorney via a bunch of ugly old alumni to protect him from not making into the NFL. Really ugly side of college football emerging in Eugene.
Phil (Nike) has now lent the UO a PR firm for Blount to make it all better, the sad thing is the people around here believe the crap and do not realize they are just a test market for Nike.
The all time low I witnessed was in Autzen Stadium, a game was not going their way and they kept booing the home team. Could not believe it.
by BSU Alumni stranded in Portland on Oct 21, 2009 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Like I said I defer
to you. As for Idaho/Boise State, I am a graduate of both. I last attended an Idaho/Boise State game in 1990; it was the last one I will ever attend. My tax dollars support both schools as well as ISU and I dont understand denigrating an institution over a 4 hour game designed to be played by children.
tvmunson
no excuse
for booing.These kids are risking life and limb to entertain us for not a lot in return. They were doing 2 a days in the summer sun while we were lifting margaritas. Contemptible.
tvmunson
BSU FANS
I hope Boise stays the way it has always been towards sports and their teams.
Treat them like a Prince if you want them to be King.
by BSU Alumni stranded in Portland on Oct 21, 2009 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions
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Georgia
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Sat 09/03 | W 35 - 21 |
| @ Toledo | Fri 09/16 | W 40 - 15 |
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