Interesting...very interesting...
by Mikrino on Oct 19, 2009 5:28 AM PDT
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| THE BCS: A CLOSER LOOK | ||||
| Here is the BCS top 12, with the school, its spot in the coaches' poll, its spot in the Harris poll and its BCS computer average. A bonus: We've included NCAA strength of schedule (SOS), which is not part of the BCS formula.. | ||||
| Team | Harris | Coaches | Comp. | SOS |
| 1. Florida | 1st | 1st | 1st | 8th |
| 2. Alabama | 2nd | 2nd | 2nd | 43rd |
| 3. Texas | 3rd | 3rd | 6th | T-33rd |
| 4. Boise State | 5th | 5th | 5th | T-59th |
| 5. Cincinnati | 6th | 6th | 4th | T-67th |
| 6. Iowa | 7th | 8th | 3rd | 9th |
| 7. USC | 4th | 4th | 11th | T-67th |
| 8. TCU | 8th | 7th | 8th | 39th |
| 9. LSU | 9th | 10th | 7th | 38th |
| 10. Miami | 10th | 9th | 13th | T-22nd |
| 11. Oregon | 12th | 14th | 9th | T-18th |
| 12. Ga. Tech | 13th | 13th | 10th | T-29th |
A closer look indeed. This is from rivals.com. You might have noticed some upheaval at Boise State being placed fourth in the BCS Standings. In fact, this article is distinctly pointing that out. But what is subtlely sitting amongst the rhetoric is Boise State's SOS. Which happens to be better than both USC and Cincinnati, who are tied. They point out that SOS is not part of the formula. Which I've said numerous times as well, to people who somehow believe the opposite. Nevertheless I felt that Boise State deserved some recognition for being in the top half of the country in terms of SOS, since so many detractors are focusing on that.
Anyone else watch the BCS "special" last night on ESPN? Where they dissected every possible angle over and over for three hours? Aside from the repitition, what I took away from it was everyone across the board seems to be agreeing that Boise State has arrived as a "top-tier" program. Brent Musberger went out of his way to pump Boise State as deserving of their rank as any other top team. Even Herbie agreed a bit, but said they still couldn't hang with Florida or USC. Musberger's response, " I don't see USC or Florida putting them on the schedule. Trust me, nobody wants any part of Boise State! Hey Herbie, is Alabama scheduling Utah anytime soon?" It was great to hear that.
Todd McShay threw in that spots 4-7 were essentially tied and USC would come out on top. I would argue that spots 5 and 6 are tied and neither of those are USC, but nice try McShay.
Anyway, just wanted to offer up something for discussion. Feel free to tear it down with hyperbole and supposition.
Comments, as always, are welcome. Largely ignored, but welcome nonetheless.
| BCS Standings |
Mike Huguenin is the college sports editor for Rivals.com. He can be reached at mhuguenin@rivals.com.
This content was not created by OBNUG and therefore may not meet our standards. On the contrary, it probably exceeds them.
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Nicely Done Mikrino...
and gets a stronly rec’d from me. This is a great analysis to me.
This points out three things to me:
1. BSU’s SOS, as you pointed out, is not as bad as people want to make it out to be and better than some of the top tier programs that are always in the public limelight. It may also improve if UNR, La Tech, and U of I continue to win football games. Of course they will all play each other and that will create losses for someone. Still they can give a boost to the WAC overall if they continue to play strong the remainder of the season which ultimately helps BSU.
2. Iowa’s SOS combined with their the fact they are unbeaten should garner them strong consideration in the BCS championship discussion. I believe they should be considered ahead of Texas provided that they win out and remain undefeated.
3. I know the the SEC has several ranked teams but I am suprised that UF has the 8th most difficult SOS ranking considering their OOC schedule, which is pretty weak all things considered.
Thanks.
Just some perspective on where Boise State is and where they seem to be headed.
Now we need them in a different conference.
Stay thirsty my friends.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
Good Stuff...
You are correct that SOS is no longer a separate component as part of the BCS formula, but it is strongly imbedded in each of the computer polls’ formulas. Perceived SOS has even more influence with the human voters since many of them don’t look too closely at each team’s schedule and rely on the “so-and-so doesn’t play anybody” or “every team is tough in the SEC” banter.
Boise States schedule strength is holding right now because of Oregon. It will get even further diluted as the Broncos progress through the WAC schedule. I would venture to guess that despite a win this weekend, Idaho’s computer rankings actually fell since Hawaii doesn’t help their SOS.
BSU being #4 in the BCS this early was a surprise and may end up having a damaging effect. Is it possible coaches and Harris poll voters could alarmed that BSU is so high this early and gradually sabatoge their vote? In my opinion, Oregon is the key. Many have been propping up the Broncos for Oregon’s performance as much as they are for BSU’s season to date. Even if the Broncos continue to win, but Oregon drops a couple of games, look for Boise State to tumble a few spots in the human polls.
"...east and west is the problem, north and south the solution."
I agree.
I do think some of that already began when Boise State hit #5 a couple weeks ago. The talking heads began a full assault on the Broncos and since then the polls have reflected it. Especially with the Broncos dropping without even playing. But what mainstream media and powerhouse pundits can’t control is that other teams are going to lose. As long as one of those teams isn’t Boise State, the Broncos should stay around the top five. I think they’ll end up climbing a spot or two actually.
You never know, but I think the majority of major media outlets are slowly giving Boise State credit for continuing to win, no matter the opponent.
And perception my friends, is reality.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
seems like
the only entity capable of rational thought in the BCS is the computers. They account for all the things (winning percentage, past seasons, efficiency, pure W’s) that the Humans don’t
Maybe.
We love the computers now, but they might put our SOS into the 90’s at seasons end. The bottom of the WAC has played up, but the the middle of the WAC has been shot down. No more bottom 10, but mediocrity hasn’t been vanquished.
Also, for some reason, 4 computers still have Florida #1. I thought of all analysts, the computers would get it right and have Alabama 1st. It doesn’t matter, of course, as they’re likely to lock up the top 2 until SEC showdown time.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
by Loque on Oct 19, 2009 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd for truth.
Those computers that we all love now, will be the same computers we curse in December.
Mark Schlabach had the same thought on Florida today in his column:
The BCS computers love the Gators, who are No. 1 in four of the six computer polls. I’m not sure which season the computers have been watching. The Crimson Tide have already beaten two teams ranked in the BCS standings: No. 14 Virginia Tech and No. 24 South Carolina. Florida has beaten one ranked team: No. 9 LSU.
I think Florida is getting an advantage in computer formulas right now because they have played one less game. Otherwise, Alabama’s schedule is fairly comparable to Florida. FIU and North Texas are not much different than Charleston Southern and Troy. Both have big wins over Va Tech and LSU respectively and after that they have fairly common opponents. Things may average out when Alabama has a bye week and the computer formulas are calculating the same number of games for each team.
"...east and west is the problem, north and south the solution."
by MKingery on Oct 19, 2009 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd for saying you rec'd without rec'ing! Awesome!
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
by Mikrino on Oct 19, 2009 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
rec'd for rec'ing someone for not rec'ing.
Although, I do feel unrec’d.
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
by Loque on Oct 19, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
rec'd for reciprocity!
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
by Mikrino on Oct 19, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Forgot to rec...
and came back to do so hoping I was in time before someone noticed. Nothing too quick for this crowd. Thanks for keeping me in line.
"...east and west is the problem, north and south the solution."
by MKingery on Oct 19, 2009 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec you all!
Catch me on the BroncoNation Podcast!
by OBNUG Intern on Oct 19, 2009 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
rec you too!
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
by Mikrino on Oct 19, 2009 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec back at ya.
Catch me on the BroncoNation Podcast!
by OBNUG Intern on Oct 19, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
This whole tangent is a rec...
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
by utesfan100 on Oct 19, 2009 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec for noticing!
Catch me on the BroncoNation Podcast!
by OBNUG Intern on Oct 19, 2009 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
These are some of my favorite SBN subthreads.
by appleshampoo on Oct 21, 2009 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd for goo taste
"You know where i'm from, a little suspicion about one's true identity and motives is considered good manners."
-- Nale
umm
which computers account for past seasons? I am almost positive that Sagarin doesn’t after the first five or six weeks (during that time, pre-season rankings play a role, which I guess reflects past seasons)
Billingsley
The Billingsley formula uses last season’s final rankings as a starting point for the following year. That is why Utah may still be getting some love in his rankings.
Theoretically, two teams could have identical seasons but one would be ranked higher based on their performance the prior year.
"...east and west is the problem, north and south the solution."
Let me see:
Anderson and Hester: No – Heavy emphasis on conference membership
Billingsley: Yes – Attempt to model a polster with no team preference.
Colley: No – Adjusts Laplaces rule of succession to account for SOS – or a modified PCT.
Massey: No – Difference in rankings related to the probability of win by logit distribution.
Sagarin: Not anymore this season – proporietatry ranking system
Wolfe: No – Similar to Massey
So… only Billingsley. Bilingsley attempts to model the action of a pollster by adjusting results after each week. He uses the previous year’s final rankings (with slight modification) as the seed for each year and goes back to the first Princeton Rutgers game.
His poll is usually one of the ones thrown out but also usually the closest to the human polls.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
SOS
Is supposed to be taken in by the human voters, and I could be wrong but don’t the computers take in SOS?
I came over here to preach to the choir...
I am in a full fledged debate with Husky fans that @BSU is a tougher game than home against LSU. The latter averages 295 yards a game and that is not because of all those SEC defenses they’re playing. They’ve played UW (bad defense), Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Lafayette, Miss St., Georgia (not up to snuff this year), and then FLORIDA. Of all the teams in the top 10 – my pick for most likely to leave the top 10 – LSU! They will lose to Bama and could very well lose to Miss, Arkansas, or Auburn.
I would agree.
LSU is not as strong as in past seasons. As evidenced by losing a night game at home for the first time in 33 games. The offense is offensive to say the least. I think Les Miles is regretting kicking Ryan Perriloux off his team right about now.
Simply put, Boise State just doesn’t lose at home.
Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)
It's Gary Crowton...
he’s one hit wonder everywhere he goes and then defensive coordinators figure him out. We dipped dramatically after our second year with him.
by BisonDucks on Oct 22, 2009 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
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2012 Boise State Football Schedule
@ Michigan State  |
Fri 08/31 | 6:00 p.m. MT |
| Miami (OH) | Sat 09/15 | 2:00 p.m. MT |
| BYU |
Thu 09/20 | TBA |
| @ New Mexico | Sat 09/29 | TBA |
| @ Southern Miss | Sat 10/06 | TBA |
| Fresno State | Sat 10/13 | 1:30 p.m. MT |
| UNLV | Sat 10/20 | 1:30 p.m. MT |
| @ Wyoming |
Sat 10/27 | 1:30 p.m. MT |
| San Diego State | Sat 11/03 | 8:30 p.m. MT |
| @ Hawaii | Sat 11/10 | 5:00 p.m. MT |
| Colorado St. | Sat 11/17 | 1:30 p.m. MT |
| @ Nevada | Sat 12/1 | TBA |
