Game prediction: Boise State 24, TCU 10

by Kevan Lee on Dec 22, 2008 3:00 PM PST in Boise State football Comment 24 comments

That score seems about right, don't you think?

Two Kellen Moore touchdown passes (one set up by a turnover), one short Ian Johnson TD plunge, and a big-play TCU strike. Let's just call it good and save Mark May the trouble of flying coach on Jet Blue. Agreed? No? They still have to play the thing? Fine.

You'll have to forgive us our confidence. The Boise State - TCU Poinsettia Bowl just fits so neatly in our safe, predictable little box in our head that we picked out and wrapped so carefully, much like the gifts we have yet to buy our family members. The way we see it, the Poinsettia Bowl will go down a certain inevitable path from which there is virtually no wavering. We've discussed it, we've dreamed about it, and we've dissected it from all angles. The conclusion we've come to is that Boise State is going to win, and they'll win 24-10.

We haven't been this sure of a final score since whenever the last game was.

To us, this game seems relatively straight-forward. It won't be a shootout if the defenses come to play. The Boise State offense will lean heavily on the arm of Kellen Moore. TCU will count on its defense to dictate field possession and its offense to play keep-away from the Broncos. We could very well see five or six possessions for each team per half, and we could be dozing off to Scott Van Pelt and Sportscenter by 8:45, sneaking leftover Bagel Bites by 9:30, and lights out at 10:00.

Doesn't this game just seem predestined toward that end?

If this scenario does play itself out, then the key for the Broncos will be getting touchdowns, not field goals, when they get in the red zone. If Moore can guide the team to paydirt rather than giving way to Kyle Brotzman, it will make a world of difference in the final outcome. We don't anticipate Boise State getting tons of chances against TCU, so we feel that the Broncos need to take advantage of the ones that they do get. We felt the same way when Jenny Green sat in front of us in fourth grade.

And Moore is certainly capable. He seems to get better when he is staring at goal-to-go and other big situations. He won't need to pass for 300 yards in this game for the Broncos to win. He'll just need to make the most of his opportunities when he gets them, and from everything we've seen from him all year long, this is entirely possible, no matter how terrifying the TCU defense is.

If Moore can make plays, then Boise State should be in good shape. The BSU offense worries us the most; the Bronco defense worries us very little. Boise State's "D" will take care of itself; this is the most absolute absolute of all the P-Bowl's absolutes. Boise State has proven time and again that they are capable of shutting teams down, and if it takes another dominating performance to convince people, then so be it. As for us, we started believing against Oregon in September, and they haven't let us down since.

TCU will struggle to score. Boise State will struggle to score. The main difference here is that Boise State struggles to score every week, yet they always find a way. We don't see that trend stopping in the P-Bowl.

Of course, there is the possibility that things could go far differently than we have pictured. When we sat down to write this game prediction, we tried our best to put irrational feelings aside and approach this game with the objectiveness and sensibility of a professional. We probably failed.

So just in case our orange-and-blue-colored glasses got in the way, we thought it best to list the other scores that we considered.

Boise State 48, TCU 35. We were closest to picking this one, based on an old adage that we have come to know and love: When two teams with stellar defenses play, more often than not the final score ends up being a lot bigger than anyone expected. We saw this phenomenon happen in the San Jose State game, and it could very well rear its ugly head tomorrow. We dismissed this score, though, because the thought of TCU scoring 35 against the Boise State defense was laughable (and vice versa for TCU fans).

Boise State 10, TCU 7. The lazy man's score prediction is a result of looking at both defenses and joking, "Will anyone even score in this game?" This joke is not funny. It is old, and we wanted nothing to do with it. We guess a 10-7 final could happen, but there are bound to be some plays made that should make this result near impossible.

Boise State 21, TCU 0. This prediction is close to our hearts because it would mean a shutout for the underappreciated BSU defense. We would be thrilled if this would happen, but we declined to outright pick it because we are not fond of hate email from TCU fans.

TCU 17, Boise State 13. If this happened, there might as well not be a Christmas. We would have nothing to celebrate (save for the birth of the Christ).

Even after looking at all those score possibilities, we feel good about our 24-10 final. It will be close, but not too close. It will be exciting, but not too exciting. It is the ultimate safe pick, and at a time like this, against an opponent like TCU, with the weight of the non-BCS world on our shoulders and the prospects of an undefeated, Top 5 season hanging in the balance, safe is good.

Maybe that's why we like it so much.

Discuss: Have your own score prediction? Lay it on us in the comments.

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Comments

I like the score, but unfortunately, I think it's going to be a nail-biter all the way to the finish. I'm going with 20-17 BSU.

I see Ian getting the record with a short TD run.
I see Kellen throwing 1 TD, 1 pic

by BroncoFever on Dec 21, 2008 10:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Well said, BF. I can respect that prediction, even though a 20-17 final score might kill me. You pretty worried about TCU? I'm used to a bit more confidence from you.

by kevanlee on Dec 21, 2008 10:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Kevan, I am an optimist at heart, but the thing is, that "spit blood" website has got me all discombobulated. I mean, they make it sound like TCU should be ranked first and has no flaws… In other words, they're a lot like OBNUG, just PG-13/R rated.

I really just need to watch my DVDs of Boise State dismantling WAC opponents to clear my head.

by BroncoFever on Dec 21, 2008 11:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Kevan, I am an optimist at heart, but the thing is, that "spit blood" website has got me all discombobulated. I mean, they make it sound like TCU should be ranked first and has no flaws… In other words, they're a lot like OBNUG, just PG-13/R rated (and TCU)

I really just need to watch my DVDs of Boise State dismantling WAC opponents to clear my head.

by BroncoFever on Dec 21, 2008 11:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for a good Christmas present.
I think it will be 30-14.
One of TCU's TDs would be defensive.
I look for the Broncos to put up 30, because it is a nice round number (of which BSU is capable), and high enough to make their defense seem a tad overrated. I see 7 or more guys with receptions from Kellen, and Jeremy Avery busting a long TD to Mark May's DISmay.
Go BRONCOS!

by pretendhuman on Dec 21, 2008 11:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for a good Christmas present.
I think it will be 30-14.
One of TCU's TDs would be defensive.
I look for the Broncos to put up 30, because it is a nice round number (of which BSU is capable), and high enough to make TCU's defense seem a tad overrated. I see 7 or more guys with receptions from Kellen, and Jeremy Avery busting a long TD to Mark May's DISmay.
Go BRONCOS!

by pretendhuman on Dec 21, 2008 11:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

17-7 Boise State
I think their D is legit, but so is ours. But our offense is way more legit than theirs.

by KYBronco on Dec 21, 2008 11:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

We're the legitest. No question about it.

by kevanlee on Dec 22, 2008 12:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure where it came from, but I have this vision in my head of Doug Martin breaking a 50 yard run for a TD. I know Coach Pete will put a few new wrinkles in his game plan, so who knows, Martin could get a carry, or two.
The other odd thoughts I have, are Winterswyk at the TE position, and Billy Winn at FB.
I think Ian will get his record setting TD. KM will pass for two, for BSU, and one for TCU., The Bronco D will set up another score.
TCU will move the ball, at times, until the Bronco D adjusts. When momentum swings their way, the Frogs will score.
I predict:
BSU – 31
TCU – 24

by TitoRay on Dec 22, 2008 2:07 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

24-13 Broncos Bay-bee (said in best Dick Vitale voice)

by FightFightBSU on Dec 22, 2008 2:39 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Here's is the official Mikrino Pregame Analysis;

Boise State's defense has been ignored since the bowl announcement came out and I believe it will serve as bulletin board material for the underrated unit. Not to mentioned last year's offensive beat down they took at the hands of ECU and future Pro Bowler, Chris Johnson. These guys are quite simply pissed. I see them coming out and shutting Dandy Talon and the Frogs down. I don't know how exactly the offense will fair against TCU's Defense but you can bet that Coach Pete has hopes of jumping out early and often. Boise State scores at least twice (with hopes that IJ is in on one). Brotzman sheds his lackluster couple of weeks to put up at least one FG and his punting will give T.J Conley fits of envy. Kyle Wilson may get in on the action with a return TD But the headline will be BSU's defensive dominance, mark my words, Broncos 21-3.

by Mikrino on Dec 22, 2008 3:21 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

34-10… This last weekend I had to work the 6pm to 6am shift. (During which time I'm pretty much paid to watch espn, read OBNUG articles over and over again, and look up every TCU stat known to man). Anyways, looking at their stats throughout the season, they have had big-time struggles scoring points against anyone with a better defense than the likes of Wyoming, or Stephen F Austin! They will not get a touchdown until towards the end of the game. The first half will be close, but the 3rd quarter will be owned by Kellen Moore. Lastly, the only receiver who will not get a catch in the game will be Tyler Shoemaker. Simply because if Kellen had to throw it to Boise, it would probably be an incomplete pass.
COUNT IT!
p.s. ultimately, they had about as crappy a schedule as we did! and only 13 against colorado st? Come one!

by BigBaloo on Dec 22, 2008 9:12 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

For a little fun this evening I have invited some friends overfor the game. Being in Kentucky means only my wife and I are Bronco fans. The plan is that everytime the Broncos score we do a shot. Of course I'm excpecting a low score but hey, if they put up 60…bring it on!! Until then…Obnuggers…

GO ORANGE! GO BIG BLUE!
FIGHT! FIGHT! BSU!!!

by Mikrino on Dec 22, 2008 5:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Will those be egg nog shots, perchance? Enjoy the game, Mike Rino.

by kevanlee on Dec 22, 2008 7:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

According to TCU you won't even get an alcohol buzz tonight. Here's hoping you and the lady get drunk off your. . .
Nonetheless, it is a lonely world here in KY for Bronco fans.

by KYBronco on Dec 22, 2008 8:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hell, according to TCU we're playing the '85 Chicago Bears.

by FightFightBSU on Dec 22, 2008 8:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Their attitudes will change in give or take 8 hours.

by BigBaloo on Dec 22, 2008 9:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

According to TCU just being a team from Texas gives them an automatic win. Unfortunately for TCU no one believes that except Texans, and the game is in California,LOL.

by Mikrino on Dec 23, 2008 12:21 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

So… I was really bored today and watched a re-run of the TCU/Utah game. I noticed that Dalton sucks really bad under pressure… big time. I think that the D-Line will give him fits. Kellen will show the world how cool he is under pressure, and I think the O-Line will do a pretty good job in pass protection. With the absence of Henson, I think that Ian and Avery will be able to open the run a bit. Ian, like everyone else predicted, will get a short yardage TD. Kellen will complete a lot of mid-range passes and two of them will be for TDs. He will be able to spot all of the mismatches and the pre-snap shifting should create quite a few of them.

Also, I noticed that Dalton tries to run some QB draws every now and again. His head will probably fall off on one of them (courtesy of Jeron and/or Ellis).

Finally, I predict that Gary Patterson will get a self inflicted wedgie from hiking his pants up to his nipples throughout the course of the game.

Realistic prediction:
Boise State 31
TCU 13

Pizza prediction:
Boise State 45
TCU 10

by forum8usa on Dec 22, 2008 7:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

well, my flight leaves in 2 hours. Time to get in my orange& Blue, and get as jacked up as i can on orange crush for the game! I look forward to seeing Kellen Moore make swiss cheese out of their secondary in person, and witnessing pure domination! GO BRONCOS!!!!!! My only regret, is not being able to hear Mark May eat his words. "4 losses in the MWC… uhhh, (gurgle sounds) 'it seems as though Mark May has just pulled his bottom lip over his head…'"

by BigBaloo on Dec 22, 2008 9:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Have fun, be loud, represent!

by KYBronco on Dec 22, 2008 10:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If that happens, I'll TiVo it for you.

by kevanlee on Dec 22, 2008 11:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

did no one watch the fresno game? can you say 61 to 10 again? Eat that Mark May.

by BSUBLUE on Dec 22, 2008 11:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Number 2 on my Christmas list is a Boise State win by at least 25 – the margin in the TCU/OK game. Number 1 on the list, and in bold, is a typed transcript of Mark May's color commentary tomorrow night.

by cogitoboy on Dec 23, 2008 4:35 AM PST reply actions 0 recs