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Game prediction: Boise State 48, Nevada 17

Let's be real, people. A repeat of last year will not happen again in a million, billion years. So can we dispense with the revisionist history?

In a sense, talking about "what was" is doing a disservice to "what is." Both Boise State and Nevada are better teams than they were a year ago. The Broncos are a Top 10 team with a fantastic freshman quarterback and a stout, highly regarded defense. The Wolf Pack are a ground game machine with one of the most elusive backfield duos in college football and a pass rushing attack that is tops in the conference. There's no reason to keep living in the past of 69-67 when the only thing that matters on Saturday is the present.

So let's get right down to it.

We're picking the Broncos to win because we always pick the Broncos to win. It's what we do. But like usual, our pick has plenty of evidence to back it up. This Boise State team is superior to Nevada in a lot of ways, and that difference should make itself painfully clear by the end of the game.

People think that Nevada will get its points and yards on Saturday. But how? The Broncos haven't given up much of anything to spread option attacks this season thanks to the pressure of the defensive line, the speed and tackling of the linebackers, and the play of the safeties and corners. The Pistol is essentially a mutated spread option. Colin Kaepernick and Vai Taua are great players, but it's hard to see them being as successful as usual against the Broncos.

On offense, the gameplan seems simple enough for the Broncos: pass, pass, pass. The Wolf Pack secondary is one of the worst in the country. If Kellen Moore can avoid the pass rush (which he can), then he should be finding plenty of open receivers downfield. Of course, the Broncos rarely do anything as expected, so they could very well come out running the football, too, and playing keep away from the Nevada offense. Even though the Wolf Pack defense is strong against the run, we wouldn't put it past the Broncos to find running room inside. Even "long hand-offs" on receiver screens or running back flairs should be effective.

In about the first 10 or 15 minutes of the game, we should be able to tell whether we are in store for another Bronco blowout or a closely fought game. Either way, we don't see the Broncos coming out on the losing end of this one.

If the Broncos and Wolf Pack played 10 times, Boise State would win nine of them. We'll take those odds and assume that lightning and 4-OT games never strike twice.

Other predictions:


  • Kyle Brotzman makes more field goals than he misses.

  • Ian Johnson does not get the first carry of the game.

  • Colin Kaepernick breaks something (hopefully not a long run).

  • Mark Johnson and Tom Scott completely butcher Vai Taua's name.

  • Kellen Moore throws for over 300 yards, and Jeremy Childs goes over 100.

  • The Broncos return a kickoff for a touchdown.

  • It takes the Broncos an hour and a half to do the traditional post-game high-five for every Bronco fan in attendance.

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Kaepernick rushing yards = <100.
 
Kaepernick TD passes = 0.
 
Ian Johnson catches a TD pass. Not necessarily from Kellen Moore.
 
Boise State doubles the point spread.

by OSQjunkie on Nov 20, 2008 8:20 PM PST reply actions  

Good game prediction.. Everyone keeps talking about Nevada's run game which is just plain silly considering half the teams in the WAC have the worst run defenses in the nation. Boise State will at the least contain Nevadas run offense, if not completely shut it down. Is it Saturday yet?

by BSUBLUE on Nov 20, 2008 8:26 PM PST reply actions  

I like the prediction too. There's the prideful part of me that hopes they don't even score 17. I like the game predictions too. I swear I had a dream that Avery got the first carry of the game.
 
I wonder if the Broncos start our similar to what they did last week by throwing a bunch of short passes to Childs. That could be an option if they aren't successful running the ball right away.

by Jeremy on Nov 20, 2008 8:40 PM PST reply actions  

I like it. I still think Kaepernick gets a few big runs and that other dude may get a little, but they are not going to score as much as BSU. NO WAY.
BSU 45 NEV 20

by BroncoFever on Nov 20, 2008 8:54 PM PST reply actions  

I agree about the short passes. It seems like it has become a part of the Bronco offense that is as natural as a handoff. No doubt that the Nevada corners will be playing off the BSU receivers since they can't hang with them. This should give plenty of room for those short passes Childs and Pettis and will help neutralize the pass rush.
 
Genius.

by kevanlee on Nov 20, 2008 9:28 PM PST reply actions  

I agree about the short passes. It seems like it has become a part of the Bronco offense that is as natural as a handoff. No doubt that the Nevada corners will be playing off the BSU receivers since they can't hang with them. This should give plenty of room for those short passes Childs and Pettis and will help neutralize the pass rush.
  
Brilliant.

by kevanlee on Nov 20, 2008 9:28 PM PST reply actions  

First play for the Broncos will be a pass. Mark (Johnson) my words bloggers! We will come out like the Mummies did but passing. The other main difference is we will move the ball with ease. There will be a score on our first posession.

by Belexes on Nov 20, 2008 9:38 PM PST reply actions  

Yeah I'm saying 49-17, Broncos. I really don't think this will be any different than the last few games in Reno. As I stated in an earlier post, This Bronco defense is nothing like what they've had in the past, and the Nevada team is exactly where it has been for the last few years. They are decent, but not great…yet. And great is what you will have to be to beat the Broncos at this point.
 
And seriously, I think if Kaepernick runs with the reckless abandon that he exhibited in last year's game, there are 3-4 guys that will be able to adjust his perception of reality. The Broncos lacked that last year, and I'm anxious to see what transpires.
 
GO ORANGE! GO BIG BLUE!
 
FIGHT!
FIGHT!
 
BSU!!

by Mikrino on Nov 20, 2008 9:41 PM PST reply actions  

I agree with what has been said by all. I think that this "pistol” offense will look more like a "pop gun"! UNR may try to mix things up to get an early advantage, but this Boise State defense will be ready. The offense will be on fire and we will see some rushing yards and a couple TD's for IJ (he wants that WAC TD record, I think the coaches will give him the opportunities). Except for last year's game, the Nevada game always has had a ton of hype, but ended up being a blowout, last year was a fluke! Boise State wins 56-14, they need to finally break that 50 point mark and this would be a good time for them to do it, on National TV with people doubting them even winning!

by goodhandsman on Nov 20, 2008 10:21 PM PST reply actions  

Nothing to add that hasn't already been said. They didn't have much film on Kaepernick last year and will not be surprised this year. This BSU team is much better defensively and Nevada will not be able to contain the short passing game – eventually giving up the big play. 45-20

by BlueTurf on Nov 20, 2008 11:03 PM PST reply actions  

Exactly. Running QBs have suffered this year against Boise State. I don't know why it would be any different this game. The Broncos know what Kaepernick is capable of this year, but this time they'll stuff him.

by Jeremy on Nov 20, 2008 11:15 PM PST reply actions  

anybody else wonder how kapernicks toothpick legs haven't been broken yet, just curious.

by BSUBLUE on Nov 20, 2008 11:25 PM PST reply actions  

Please rub Kellen Moore on the head for me and describe later in great detail how it felt.

by kevanlee on Nov 20, 2008 11:59 PM PST reply actions  

If Kaepernick runs with reckless abandon, he's probably going to lose two or three fumbles. This is not your 2007 Boise State defense. This one hits hard and makes plays. I'll be interested to see the final turnover margin.

by kevanlee on Nov 21, 2008 12:00 AM PST reply actions  

i wonder if jeron johnson is thinking the same thing

by BSUBLUE on Nov 21, 2008 12:02 AM PST reply actions  

I have come up with a great sign for anyone planning on attending the game tomorrow.
 
BOISE STATE BRONCOS
 
overHATED since 1932!

by Mikrino on Nov 21, 2008 1:01 AM PST reply actions  

Its like he's bouncing around on two closet rods.

by Mikrino on Nov 21, 2008 1:02 AM PST reply actions  

Thats pretty much what I said except more thought out and with easier to read words.

by Mikrino on Nov 21, 2008 1:06 AM PST reply actions  

love it!

by BSUBLUE on Nov 21, 2008 1:31 AM PST reply actions  

Colin Kaepernick: 6'5" and 127 lbs. of straight up BALSA WOOD! I'd love to see him go down in a blaze of glory.

by Mikrino on Nov 21, 2008 1:41 AM PST reply actions  

It is amazing the perception of BSU outside of Idaho. I frequent the boise state topix forum and there are some serious bashers there that think we are flukes and always challenge our SOS. The problem with their argument is that everytime we play a so called "big school" we typically win. I guess we will have to play 12 top 10 teams in a row to finally prove ourselves.

by BSUBLUE on Nov 21, 2008 1:43 AM PST reply actions  

I just heard on ESPN Radio that Scott Van Pelt is picking Nevada to win this game. ESPN: jumping on and off bandwagons since 1979.

by BroncoFever on Nov 21, 2008 1:44 AM PST reply actions  

i love proving these guys wrong. Espn also predicted ball state to loose to central michigan, or atleast not cover the spread, and look how wrong they were on that one. Or how about them picking BYU to loose to airforce, what a joke

by BSUBLUE on Nov 21, 2008 1:49 AM PST reply actions  

The "protect the BCS" campaign has begun. They will predict against any team that threatens the current format with disruption.

by Mikrino on Nov 21, 2008 1:52 AM PST reply actions  

I like it. Probably wouldn't get past ESPN censors though, but nonetheless, accurate.

by Mikrino on Nov 21, 2008 1:53 AM PST reply actions  

Do they realize that Nevada has not only lost to the two BCS teams they played this year, but has also lost to two teams that BSU has beat??? I don't understand what they are thinking, unless it is just "protect the bcs" bull

by BSUBLUE on Nov 21, 2008 1:56 AM PST reply actions  

And also to add to that if they really think BSU would loose to a Nevada team that is ranked like 50 something why would the pollsters rank BSU at 9?? I think we deserve our ranking and also think we would beat the teams that are ranked behind us, especially Ohio St.

by BSUBLUE on Nov 21, 2008 2:06 AM PST reply actions  

It just furthers the point that the national media doesn't pay enough attention to the non-bcs schools. If they did, they would know how much better the Bronco Defense is this year. There's no excuse for the local Boise media though. They're just a bunch of Idaho and Utah fans.

by Jeremy on Nov 21, 2008 2:08 AM PST reply actions  

does anyone else hold as great of hatred for kapernick as i do?

by BSUBLUE on Nov 21, 2008 2:26 AM PST reply actions  

I've never hated Kaepernick until this week. Those long skinny twigs he calls legs used to make a little nervous, but now I just can't stand him.

by Jeremy on Nov 21, 2008 2:54 AM PST reply actions  

45-10
  
Whew. I said it.
No way Kaepernick runs as free as he did last year. We'll contain this 'pistol' offense the way we've contained all the other spread offenses this season.
 
Oh, and the players better not get skimpy with their high fives. I'll be waiting down there for mine.

by obcircus on Nov 21, 2008 4:51 AM PST reply actions  

revised 38-21… childs 2 td, pettis 1, avery & johnson 1 ea

by jahkass on Nov 21, 2008 5:59 AM PST reply actions  

I think Colin will make one foray into the Bronco secondary. That will be enough for him to learn his lesson as he runs straight into a JJ crushing hit. 55-10 Broncos.

by Rob on Nov 21, 2008 5:59 PM PST reply actions  

I can't stand Kirk Herbstreit. All he is to me is a face. He looks like Howie Long with half the testosterone. People who are big Ohio State fans will always be in denial of their shaky play, especially when in a Bowl game. And when they beat a crappy Michigan team, they will be talking up their team, not pointing out that Michigan is a total bust.

by pretendhuman on Nov 21, 2008 8:48 PM PST reply actions  

Kirk Herbstreit is officially an idiot. He just picked Nevada to win. His reason…because they are playing at home. That was it, no revenge for last year or the year before. He said they could run the ball and that they were at home. LAME!

by goodhandsman on Nov 22, 2008 2:49 AM PST reply actions  

As we all know, Nevada is the trendy pick this week.

by Jeremy on Nov 22, 2008 3:46 AM PST reply actions  

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